January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Nice NAM run at 0Z now inside of 48 hours.  Hopefully it's onto something.  Warm tongue of air probably at the 800mb could taint the snow to sleet for a time.  

This represents actual snow depth change.  Probably fairly accurate as per the run.

0z Nam keeps everyone mostly frozen until the tail end

Looks like a classic 1-3 inches for NYC with more inland

The most exciting part of this is the surface temperature and not having to struggle to stick. Could be low 20's or upper teens to start!

Mount Holly numbers increasing each new output.  I'll sign up for the 4" right now no questions asked. Hopefully this trend continues and these numbers get pushed further SE for the rest of the other folks.

What's a Barney Alert? Will giant purple dinosaurs be falling from the sky?

Looks like our biggest snowfall of the season tomorrow as Trends keep getting better. Anyone west of the Hudson and north of the city look to stay almost entirely snow till the very end. 3 to 6 in for those areas 1 to 3 in for the city south and east.

Good news Al! Whatever we get will remain as a snowpack as next weeks looks cold.Perfect timing.Saturday into Sunday AM on the snow, so no problems for those that must drive to work.

I’ve never really worried about the surface temps with this as my forecast high for Saturday has never really been above 34/35 in almost all the modeling (usually not until the late evening). I’m forecast to be below freezing most of the storm and that’s been consistent. To me the biggest curveball would be mixing issues with sleet/frz. That is what could knock what should be a “3-5” event N&W of NYC down to a “1-3” event. GFS has shown little or no mixing. NAM has mixing over NJ but seems to be minimizing that (though not eliminating it) in the latest run (except over parts of PA). Interested to see how the HRRR handles that on the 12z run today.
If there isn’t a transition period of sleet involved here I don’t see this going over to rain until later in the evening so I think in that scenario 3-5 still seems a good call (except city and shore). But I’ve had one too many storms in my life ruined by that pitter-patter on my window of sleet ruining my snow . . . so I’ll have to keep my fingers crossed.

I believe 3" will be very wide spread NW of 95 with some 4" amounts. 5" i believe will be very isolated.

City I think can pick up 1-3". If surface was marginal at the start I'd say no chance, but this is a different surface temp at the onset and even during. IMO this will be NYC biggest snow to date for the season. 3" in CPK won't shock me one bit.

@algae888 wrote:Looks like our biggest snowfall of the season tomorrow as Trends keep getting better. Anyone west of the Hudson and north of the city look to stay almost entirely snow till the very end. 3 to 6 in for those areas 1 to 3 in for the city south and east.

Yes the biggest of the season for some, not all.

This should easily be the biggest snowfall of 2020 for all.

12z HRRR shows very little mixing. A little bit down around Mercer County NJ/Bucks Co PA. Also shows some heavy late afternoon snow banding across Central/North Jersey. Has about 3-4" with it still snowing (doesn't reach end of storm yet). I like the way the modeling is looking so far today for a decent snow event tomorrow. Can't be greedy in this kind of winter.

@billg315 wrote:12z HRRR shows very little mixing. A little bit down around Mercer County NJ/Bucks Co PA. Also shows some heavy late afternoon snow banding across Central/North Jersey. Has about 3-4" with it still snowing (doesn't reach end of storm yet).  I like the way the modeling is looking so far today for a decent snow event tomorrow. Can't be greedy in this kind of winter.

Yeah, I think we won't have so much of mixing concerns NW I95 as the soundings continue to support below/at 32 across the entire column for most of the precip.  It's if this forcing (central PA) can hold together as it approaches NJ, it'll enhance the rates.  If that falls apart, 3" at best, if it hold together some folks will hit 5".

@heehaw453 wrote:I believe 3" will be very wide spread NW of 95 with some 4" amounts.  5" i believe will be very isolated.  

City I think can pick up 1-3".  If surface was marginal at the start I'd say no chance, but this is a different surface temp at the onset and even during.  IMO this will be NYC biggest snow to date for the season.  3" in CPK won't shock me one bit.

Yup. I'm expecting 3-4 in mid hudson valley, nothing has changed with that. I think it will be a 6 hour event of .50-.75 inch per hour rates for the most part with 1 inch per hour at times and then shuts off quickly after 8-9pm from west to east. Model trends have been colder so everybody should see some snow. I think Central Park gets to 2 as well as north shore of LI. This winter thats a win.

The good Trends continue on all guidance today first time this has happened this winter season. The system continues to get colder and wetter the last few Cycles as models are now hinting at a transfer from the primary to just south of Long Island which is probably locking in the cold air and enhancing the precipitation. New York City and into Southwest Connecticut benefiting from this Solid 3 to 5in on all guidance for these areas

Solid Euro run. 4"+ TTN on north. Precipitation is robust. Much colder across the entire column. Would only be wet at the very end.

Since i missed out on December's event my largest snowfall this season is 2". I believe this will surpass that and with cold surface it'll be really nice winter weather event. Not taking this for granted as this could be the best event I see for the foreseeable future.