January 18th Winter Storm Looms
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Snow88
frank 638
aiannone
brownie
nutleyblizzard
HectorO
algae888
hyde345
bobjohnsonforthehall
weatherwatchermom
phil155
GreyBeard
billg315
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dkodgis
amugs
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docstox12
Dunnzoo
CPcantmeasuresnow
jmanley32
mwilli
essexcountypete
Frank_Wx
28 posters
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
My thoughts remain unchanged with 1-3" for NYC Metro and 3-6" N&W. S&E of NYC may see <1".
Timing pushed back from late morning to the afternoon. Looks like a 2-3pm start time.
Timing pushed back from late morning to the afternoon. Looks like a 2-3pm start time.
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
Trending colder for NNJ, 18z models have very little if no rain. All snow and/or mix. Still in the 3-4" range for here, LI changes to rain with just about an inch.
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
Even for the city especially by me in the Bronx it has trended slightly colder with 2 to 3 inches of snow Possibly a mix to rain if I get 3 inches worth of snow I’ll be very happy
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
Frank_Wx wrote:My thoughts remain unchanged with 1-3" for NYC Metro and 3-6" N&W. S&E of NYC may see <1".
Timing pushed back from late morning to the afternoon. Looks like a 2-3pm start time.
I approve this message LOL!!
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
0z Nam keeps everyone mostly frozen until the tail end
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
NAM coming in juicy and colder as the cold trend is real now its juicin it up.
BARNEY ALERT!!

BARNEY ALERT!!

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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
Looks like a classic 1-3 inches for NYC with more inland
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
3k Nam is even colder. 3-5 for NYC!
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
0z RGEM snowy now too!! News the rest of the suite to say yes!!
Courtesy of 33&rain

Courtesy of 33&rain

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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
What's a Barney Alert? Will giant purple dinosaurs be falling from the sky?
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
Looks like our biggest snowfall of the season tomorrow as Trends keep getting better. Anyone west of the Hudson and north of the city look to stay almost entirely snow till the very end. 3 to 6 in for those areas 1 to 3 in for the city south and east.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
Good news Al! Whatever we get will remain as a snowpack as next weeks looks cold.Perfect timing.Saturday into Sunday AM on the snow, so no problems for those that must drive to work.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
I’ve never really worried about the surface temps with this as my forecast high for Saturday has never really been above 34/35 in almost all the modeling (usually not until the late evening). I’m forecast to be below freezing most of the storm and that’s been consistent. To me the biggest curveball would be mixing issues with sleet/frz. That is what could knock what should be a “3-5” event N&W of NYC down to a “1-3” event. GFS has shown little or no mixing. NAM has mixing over NJ but seems to be minimizing that (though not eliminating it) in the latest run (except over parts of PA). Interested to see how the HRRR handles that on the 12z run today.
If there isn’t a transition period of sleet involved here I don’t see this going over to rain until later in the evening so I think in that scenario 3-5 still seems a good call (except city and shore). But I’ve had one too many storms in my life ruined by that pitter-patter on my window of sleet ruining my snow . . . so I’ll have to keep my fingers crossed.
If there isn’t a transition period of sleet involved here I don’t see this going over to rain until later in the evening so I think in that scenario 3-5 still seems a good call (except city and shore). But I’ve had one too many storms in my life ruined by that pitter-patter on my window of sleet ruining my snow . . . so I’ll have to keep my fingers crossed.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
I believe 3" will be very wide spread NW of 95 with some 4" amounts. 5" i believe will be very isolated.
City I think can pick up 1-3". If surface was marginal at the start I'd say no chance, but this is a different surface temp at the onset and even during. IMO this will be NYC biggest snow to date for the season. 3" in CPK won't shock me one bit.
City I think can pick up 1-3". If surface was marginal at the start I'd say no chance, but this is a different surface temp at the onset and even during. IMO this will be NYC biggest snow to date for the season. 3" in CPK won't shock me one bit.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
algae888 wrote:Looks like our biggest snowfall of the season tomorrow as Trends keep getting better. Anyone west of the Hudson and north of the city look to stay almost entirely snow till the very end. 3 to 6 in for those areas 1 to 3 in for the city south and east.
Yes the biggest of the season for some, not all.
This should easily be the biggest snowfall of 2020 for all.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
12z HRRR shows very little mixing. A little bit down around Mercer County NJ/Bucks Co PA. Also shows some heavy late afternoon snow banding across Central/North Jersey. Has about 3-4" with it still snowing (doesn't reach end of storm yet). I like the way the modeling is looking so far today for a decent snow event tomorrow. Can't be greedy in this kind of winter.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
billg315 wrote:12z HRRR shows very little mixing. A little bit down around Mercer County NJ/Bucks Co PA. Also shows some heavy late afternoon snow banding across Central/North Jersey. Has about 3-4" with it still snowing (doesn't reach end of storm yet). I like the way the modeling is looking so far today for a decent snow event tomorrow. Can't be greedy in this kind of winter.
Yeah, I think we won't have so much of mixing concerns NW I95 as the soundings continue to support below/at 32 across the entire column for most of the precip. It's if this forcing (central PA) can hold together as it approaches NJ, it'll enhance the rates. If that falls apart, 3" at best, if it hold together some folks will hit 5".

heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
heehaw453 wrote:I believe 3" will be very wide spread NW of 95 with some 4" amounts. 5" i believe will be very isolated.
City I think can pick up 1-3". If surface was marginal at the start I'd say no chance, but this is a different surface temp at the onset and even during. IMO this will be NYC biggest snow to date for the season. 3" in CPK won't shock me one bit.
Yup. I'm expecting 3-4 in mid hudson valley, nothing has changed with that. I think it will be a 6 hour event of .50-.75 inch per hour rates for the most part with 1 inch per hour at times and then shuts off quickly after 8-9pm from west to east. Model trends have been colder so everybody should see some snow. I think Central Park gets to 2 as well as north shore of LI. This winter thats a win.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
The good Trends continue on all guidance today first time this has happened this winter season. The system continues to get colder and wetter the last few Cycles as models are now hinting at a transfer from the primary to just south of Long Island which is probably locking in the cold air and enhancing the precipitation. New York City and into Southwest Connecticut benefiting from this Solid 3 to 5in on all guidance for these areas
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
GFS in the game too

HREF - combination of short range models NWS uses from SS at 33n rain wx bd
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/hrrr.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=Snowfall_36_hr&initcycle=12&initfhour=036&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=695&initrange=45.500000000020:276.666666666620:37.777777777795:290.666666666620&initcx1=705&initcy1=176&initcx2=905&initcy2=305&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=700&initsoundy=171&initloop=False&initoverlay=False&initlstart=24&initlend=036&initlint=1&initol1=Snowfall_36_hr&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=On&inithgwys=On&initunits=On&initlatlon=Off
RGEM trend


HREF - combination of short range models NWS uses from SS at 33n rain wx bd
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/hrrr.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=Snowfall_36_hr&initcycle=12&initfhour=036&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=695&initrange=45.500000000020:276.666666666620:37.777777777795:290.666666666620&initcx1=705&initcy1=176&initcx2=905&initcy2=305&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=700&initsoundy=171&initloop=False&initoverlay=False&initlstart=24&initlend=036&initlint=1&initol1=Snowfall_36_hr&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=On&inithgwys=On&initunits=On&initlatlon=Off
RGEM trend

_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
Irish wrote:What's a Barney Alert? Will giant purple dinosaurs be falling from the sky?
Pretty Funny Irish!!
Barney Alert means purple colors mean 4" plus on the snow maps.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
Solid Euro run. 4"+ TTN on north. Precipitation is robust. Much colder across the entire column. Would only be wet at the very end.
Since i missed out on December's event my largest snowfall this season is 2". I believe this will surpass that and with cold surface it'll be really nice winter weather event. Not taking this for granted as this could be the best event I see for the foreseeable future.
Since i missed out on December's event my largest snowfall this season is 2". I believe this will surpass that and with cold surface it'll be really nice winter weather event. Not taking this for granted as this could be the best event I see for the foreseeable future.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
heehaw453 wrote:Solid Euro run. 4"+ TTN on north. Precipitation is robust. Much colder across the entire column. Would only be wet at the very end.
Since i missed out on December's event my largest snowfall this season is 2". I believe this will surpass that and with cold surface it'll be really nice winter weather event. Not taking this for granted as this could be the best event I see for the foreseeable future.

nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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