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January 18th Winter Storm Looms

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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:49 pm

Here is todays UKMET for Saturday's snow. Trend has not been in our favor. The primary low is trending stronger/further N&W which means warm air floods us much sooner. 3-6" N&W of NYC but looking more like 1-3" for NYC Metro

January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 2 676908619-snowfall-total-accum-10to1-NECONUS-hr123-3-thumb-png


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:22 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by GreyBeard on Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:19 pm

Frank,as mentioned on the previous page, none of your images are coming thru. This is what I am seeing.

January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 2 Screen20

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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:22 pm

How bout now?

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Post by GreyBeard on Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:29 pm

Good to go! Thumbs up But I am not liking it.

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:44 pm

Frank and CP kind of beat me to it.   Again with the MJO in such an amplified state in phase 6, our final soln favors a much more amplified wave, which unfort raises heights out ahead.  Unfort the low will follow the path of least resistance.  As you can clearly see in the images below(GFS then Euro) while there is a very potent arctic/polar HP parked to our North the delay in the timing of the system, combine with the lack of blocking in the Atlantic, the HP has little resistance to continue sliding east leaving a weakness on the western flank for which the primary LP, who's 500mb energy conts to trend stronger as does the resultant primary MSLP, can move/cut into.  As Frank mentions with a stronger primary the further N&W it gets before any possibility of a transfer off the coast.  The stronger it is and the further N&W it gets means the mid levels will warm faster.  Dont get me wrong I think we all start as snow(including the coast), but I think overall my confidence is mod-high that a trend will persist that sees snow totals slowly drop as we get in tight.  That said things that could still surprise us is the actual level of cold we are dealing with.  Ive been fooled before with how stubborn the cold can be.   Obv like Heehaw said N&W has the best chance to hold on the longest.  Not 100% sold yet but getting there.      

January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 2 Gfs_mslpa_us_17
January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 2 Ecmwf_mslpa_us_5

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:08 pm

Guess I'm on an island still feeling pretty good about this. lol. Neutral Probably because my expectations are pretty low to begin with: I've had just about 2" of snow so far this winter so anything over that will more than double my total. I'm holding onto what appears to be a pretty stubborn cold air mass Friday into Saturday. But I never trust these "changeover" events anyway, so who knows.
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Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:11 pm

I'm also guilty of being parochial about these things sometimes, and even that UKMET has me in 3-6" which is fine by me.
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:19 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Frank and CP kind of beat me to it.   Again with the MJO in such an amplified state in phase 6, our final soln favors a much more amplified wave, which unfort raises heights out ahead.  Unfort the low will follow the path of least resistance.  As you can clearly see in the images below(GFS then Euro) while there is a very potent arctic/polar HP parked to our North the delay in the timing of the system, combine with the lack of blocking in the Atlantic, the HP has little resistance to continue sliding east leaving a weakness on the western flank for which the primary LP, who's 500mb energy conts to trend stronger as does the resultant primary MSLP, can move/cut into.  As Frank mentions with a stronger primary the further N&W it gets before any possibility of a transfer off the coast.  The stronger it is and the further N&W it gets means the mid levels will warm faster.  Dont get me wrong I think we all start as snow(including the coast), but I think overall my confidence is mod-high that a trend will persist that sees snow totals slowly drop as we get in tight.  That said things that could still surprise us is the actual level of cold we are dealing with.  Ive been fooled before with how stubborn the cold can be.   Obv like Heehaw said N&W has the best chance to hold on the longest.  Not 100% sold yet but getting there.      

January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 2 Gfs_mslpa_us_17
January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 2 Ecmwf_mslpa_us_5

If it amps up anymore than what today's 12Z Euro had this will be a very minor event for all.  But again, we have seen storms amp up too much before at this range.  I would not throw towel in until at least Thursday 12Z with this.  The storm preceding it can act as a 50/50 block and you can get better ridging around James Bay which can tame it down and suppress it a bit more.  It just takes a little bit at the 500mb to make huge differences at the surface.  Expectations for this storm were always tempered, but now more so.

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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:23 pm

Trend not good for the coast and those N & W should be okay with this in what Frank is saying a 3-6" type snow.
Some things to consider -
One the models are usually to slow with a SWFE =South west flow event.
Two - we are in phase 6 of the MJO which is a torch phase but we are moving into phase 7 - if you told any amatuer that we'd be getting snow in this phase after showing them temp maps of this phase they'd think your nuts!
Three - the coast is never a good spot for these types of storms UNLESS we have a HP over SE CAN or this area.
Four - we need the precip to move in faster since we have a moderate strength but east sliding HP - IF it was Friday night into Saturday afternoon we'd be in very good shape.
Five - the cold air is a dense cold air mass not a marginal air mass like in December storms so it will be cold but the Jet Streak and push of warm SW air will eventually overcome the wintry precip as noted ad naseum here
Six - this is the beginning of a pattern change so we usually get transition storms when this happens especially going from the warm phase into a colder phase
Seven - the Primary will most likely wind up stronger due various reasons - MJO, CME, Synoptic set up

Eight - take whatever white gold you get and run with it - you get what you get and you dont get upset!!

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:32 pm

Mugs I forgot to mention it but you did, the maps Im looking at the LLJ is screaming in from the SW from 900mb-925-850mb levels on both GFS and euro as the precip moves in.  I hate the LLJ.  Me and the LLJ are not cool with each other.  Last time me and the LLJ ran into one another it got ugly.  This is what I looked like after our last encounter.  

(disclaimer: thats not really me lol)
January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 2 Andy-eichholz-broken-nose

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"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by docstox12 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:42 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Mugs I forgot to mention it but you did, the maps Im looking at the LLJ is screaming in from the SW from 900mb-925-850mb levels on both GFS and euro as the precip moves in.  I hate the LLJ.  Me and the LLJ are not cool with each other.  Last time me and the LLJ ran into one another it got ugly.  This is what I looked like after our last encounter.  

(disclaimer: thats not really me lol)
January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 2 Andy-eichholz-broken-nose

LOL, Doc, shnazolapalooza!! That's painful just looking at!

I'll be happy with 3 inches in this transition storm as long as no slop comes in.It's getting cold the next week so there will be a snowpack for a while.
Looks like Math23x7 is in a good spot again!
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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:46 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Mugs I forgot to mention it but you did, the maps Im looking at the LLJ is screaming in from the SW from 900mb-925-850mb levels on both GFS and euro as the precip moves in.  I hate the LLJ.  Me and the LLJ are not cool with each other.  Last time me and the LLJ ran into one another it got ugly.  This is what I looked like after our last encounter.  

(disclaimer: thats not really me lol)
January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 2 Andy-eichholz-broken-nose

That a boy Doc kick his arse !!!

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Post by GreyBeard on Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:55 pm

At least you are smiling Very Happy What did the LLJ look like after after that encounter Question One would think the LLJ would be throwing a lot of low blows, below the belt as they say, or did he do that and then gave you a knee to the shnoz while you were doubled over?

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:53 pm

Well I'm not surprised coast gets skunked again but 5his time I'm actually okay with it I'd prefer it be dry and cloudy actually. I have my father in law headed home to CA and we are headed to CT for the long weekend. People can't drive in one inches so unless it's go be worth my while like 6 inches plus I'd prefer to get nothing.
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Post by phil155 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:27 pm

In CNJ here and if I miss out on this one I will have to hope for the best with the upcoming pattern. We are still over 3 days out so we do have time for mother nature to smile upon the snow geese

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Post by dkodgis on Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:54 pm

Frank, I have been seeing your images all along on my iPhone. Today, yesterday, etc.
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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:11 am

3 days+ out now and I'd say models are telling us that storm moves north and is bit more amped.  This does two things: erodes the cold air mass more quickly and allows forcing to be much further west.  We won't get the really good thump as modeled.

This could still trend either way, but it's not like models pulled the rug out from under us 2 days out.  So if trends the other way that'll be great.

Thoughts as of today
2-4" NW of 95 (lots more 2's & 3's)
1-2" Along and near 95
C-1" SE of 95

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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:06 am

@sroc4 wrote:Mugs I forgot to mention it but you did, the maps Im looking at the LLJ is screaming in from the SW from 900mb-925-850mb levels on both GFS and euro as the precip moves in.  I hate the LLJ.  Me and the LLJ are not cool with each other.  Last time me and the LLJ ran into one another it got ugly.  This is what I looked like after our last encounter.  

(disclaimer: thats not really me lol)
January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 2 Andy-eichholz-broken-nose

This is great 😭

@heehaw453 wrote:3 days+ out now and I'd say models are telling us that storm moves north and is bit more amped.  This does two things: erodes the cold air mass more quickly and allows forcing to be much further west.  We won't get the really good thump as modeled.

This could still trend either way, but it's not like models pulled the rug out from under us 2 days out.  So if trends the other way that'll be great.

Thoughts as of today
2-4" NW of 95 (lots more 2's & 3's)
1-2" Along and near 95
C-1" SE of 95

This is where my head is at this morning. Potential some places N&W of NYC see >4 inches still but with how trends are going unlikely. Here is last nights EURO and you can see the sharp gradient.


January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 2 87B40901-F36D-44FF-8FC7-51DF32CCFDA9.thumb.jpeg.5aaeb9f686146680cdfb5e8d398a4053

January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 2 DEB54-EEA-67-CD-4-C40-95-C0-59760-E9-A2408

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Post by billg315 on Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:20 am

@heehaw453 wrote:3 days+ out now and I'd say models are telling us that storm moves north and is bit more amped.  This does two things: erodes the cold air mass more quickly and allows forcing to be much further west.  We won't get the really good thump as modeled.

This could still trend either way, but it's not like models pulled the rug out from under us 2 days out.  So if trends the other way that'll be great.

Thoughts as of today
2-4" NW of 95 (lots more 2's & 3's)
1-2" Along and near 95
C-1" SE of 95

I would largely agree with this. Only marginally (insignificantly) different than my thoughts. I still think 3-6” N&W and west of I-95. 1-2 maybe squeeze out 3” in spots along 95. The coast won’t see much no matter how this develops.
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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:16 am

Three - the coast is never a good spot for these types of storms UNLESS we have a HP over SE CAN or this area

SWFE are better for inland areas - seems to be a pattern here these last coupe of months. In the macro scale of this board what a gradient so far this far this winter of about 50-75 miles away from the coast.

Anyway any snow is good snow.

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:09 am

eeewew that picture is disgusting....guess we are not in this game this weel..hope we get some new chance soon
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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:43 am

This is one heck of frontgensis that will be a thunderstorm of snow as it moves through IF the NAM is correct in the map below. Tremendous lift in these darker purple colors.
IF again IF this is correct this can be a fast hard thump before the screaming LLJ sends in the Warm Miser
N&W of I 95 sees a good 2-4" NW NJ, LHV (Rockland , Northern Westchester Orange) gets the 3-6" snow as has been echoed. City/Coast 1-2"ish
If it come sin faster which is possible by a couple of hours then the snow totals would go up by about 1"
Mesoscale models are starting to come into play and interesting to see how they handle some of teh subtle but could be differences in this storm.
The warm tongue could make a n interesting snow dispersion of snowing in NNJ and mix into Central PA.
January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 2 Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_850_neus_52

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:59 am

NAM still a bit far out for its best range no?
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Post by billg315 on Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:00 am

For what its worth the 12z GFS is holding consistent as it has been on the last several runs with a pretty prolonged front-end snow of generally 3-5" pretty much every where north and west of the immediate NYC area. Actually not a whole lot different from the NAM except the NAM throws in an area of sleet in the middle of the snow for some areas in Central NJ/Eastern PA.
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:30 pm

Euro a bit weaker this run. Shore still just an inch or so city maybe 1-2. Draw a line from Trenton to NYC and north of that line is 3-5.
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