January 18th Winter Storm Looms

amugs wrote:If this WRF is finally right it would be incredible. It nailed last week tornado outbreak and the storm totals in the upper midwest. So well see.
From SS at 33nRain board

That's crazy but I would take the 8.7 near me, lol.

At 0Z NAM is by far the most aggressive with the warming at 800mb. Let's see if it's right.

We track!

The Orange county gang is no different. Already we are in full tracking mode.

^^^^LOL!!
Radar most Virga in this


Wider View


6Z Euro holds

Driving north of Baltimore under a line of what looked like would be snow but turned out to be virga.

Appears start time is closer to 2pm now

heehaw453 wrote:At 0Z NAM is by far the most aggressive with the warming at 800mb.  Let's see if it's right.

Looks like NWS is buying that 800 mb warming.I went from all snow to 3 or 4hours of rain and up to 38 degrees after midnight.

All depends on how quickly winds go south and southerly flow increases. If that little secondary low pops south of LI winds could go NE and hold the snow on a bit longer and only have a little rain to finish out the storm

I saw that about the rain. I am surprised about that because the high is projected at 29 today up here. Icing near the end?

docstox12 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:At 0Z NAM is by far the most aggressive with the warming at 800mb.  Let's see if it's right.

Looks like NWS is buying that 800 mb warming.I went from all snow to 3 or 4hours of rain and up to 38 degrees after midnight.

The precip will be basically over even if it turns to light rain/drizzle late tonite. It's going to be a mainly snow event in HV.

For N&W crew I wouldn’t expect much rain but a period of sleet or freezing rain is likely before precip shuts off