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February 2020 Observations and Discussion

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Post by dkodgis on Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:37 am

27 this morning at 7:30 am. Waiting for the slop fest tomorrow night. The weather truly is ... boring.
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Post by phil155 on Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:52 am

I wonder if that very strong northern atlantic storm from a few days ago can ultimately lead to some downstream pattern changes. Such a strong system maybe what is needed to change this awful pattern. Maybe I am reaching a bit but I figured it is worth mentioning at this point

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Post by mwilli on Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:32 pm

You might be on to something Phil,according AccuWeather said pattern change in witch the northwest will be warmer,but from the Midwest to the northeast expect much colder conditions.."it ain't over till it's over"

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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:31 am

Winter has forsaken MBY this year.  Not so in the North Country of northern VT.  Some pics for enjoyment.

February 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Img_0116
February 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Img_0117
February 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Img_0115
February 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Img_0120

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Post by mwilli on Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:37 am

When anyone in here gets a chance go to the gem ensemble there is a map showing March 1 from the Midwest to the northeast cold temperatures this could be the start of something big I hope

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Post by mwilli on Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:38 am

Wsi observation if that helps

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Post by dkodgis on Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:57 pm

No precipitation at all last night and today until just now at 3:30 pm when it started spritzing. I saw stuff on the radar this morning but it missed me here somehow. Can't buy a thrill.
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Post by Grselig on Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:17 pm

@dkodgis wrote:No precipitation at all last night and today until just now at 3:30 pm when it started spritzing. I saw stuff on the radar this morning but it missed me here somehow.  Can't buy a thrill.

Horrible. Just yesterday the NWS showed a nice image of snow, mixed with rain. I thought, at lease Ill see a long lost friend for a few minutes this....well...this spring. Nope. Just a few inoffensive drops of rain.
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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Feb 20, 2020 1:42 pm

Observed February temps to date @ CPK.  Isotherm's overall winter forecast was fantastic.  Only bust will be February I believe.  From temps to snow to z500 pattern.

February 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Tempsn10

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Post by sroc4 on Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:14 pm

Current snow cover. Brick white flag


February 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 B73c6c10

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:54 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Current snow cover.  Brick  white flag


February 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 B73c6c10

Insult to injury.  Euro snow projection's for 2/27 storm.  The consistency of the ULL tracks is just amazing.  

February 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Eurosn24

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Post by sroc4 on Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:58 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Current snow cover.  Brick  white flag


February 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 B73c6c10

Insult to injury.  Euro snow projection's for 2/27 storm.  The consistency of the ULL tracks is just amazing.  

February 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Eurosn24

Its truly incredible.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:20 am

OK.  Just some more interesting facts about this February which for CPK, PHL, DCA, BAL, ABE is the snowiest month of the year.  

They all have registered 0 for the entire month and outside of some snow squall chances at the end of the month there's a good chance it remains 0 for all 5 aforementioned stations.  I just looked at CPK snowfall tables since 1869 and I find 4 instances where T of snow was recorded for February every other month had measurable snowfall. I challenge anyone to find out how many times something like this has occurred where all 5 of aforementioned stations have recorded NO snowfall.

IMBY I have registered ~ .25".  Probably had a bit more though as i didn't count the squalls on February 14 as I was out of town.

BOS is officially .5" for February.  For some perspective on how crazy ranges can be, they got just under 100" February 2015.

I'm going to try wrapping my head around all of this, but probably won't be able to. It's absolutely incredible and if it holds, dare to say unprecedented.

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Post by docstox12 on Sat Feb 22, 2020 12:34 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:OK.  Just some more interesting facts about this February which for CPK, PHL, DCA, BAL, ABE is the snowiest month of the year.  

They all have registered 0 for the entire month and outside of some snow squall chances at the end of the month there's a good chance it remains 0 for all 5 aforementioned stations.  I just looked at CPK snowfall tables since 1869 and I find 4 instances where T of snow was recorded for February every other month had measurable snowfall.  I challenge anyone to find out how many times something like this has occurred where all 5 of aforementioned stations have recorded NO snowfall.

IMBY I have registered ~ .25".  Probably had a bit more though as i didn't count the squalls on February 14 as I was out of town.

BOS is officially .5" for February.  For some perspective on how crazy ranges can be, they got just under 100" February 2015.

I'm going to try wrapping my head around all of this, but probably won't be able to.  It's absolutely incredible and if it holds, dare to say unprecedented.

Just goes to show how these patterns are set in stone.The polar opposite of this year around these parts in 1995-1996 when nothing could go wrong for snow lovers.Even two years ago I got over 80 inches.Looking dismal for next week and I am rapidly getting to "throw in the towel day" on March 15th.Those northern New England areas are always great for snow regardless of the pattern , as you saw in your recent Vermont trip.It's always cold enough up there.
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Post by Radz on Sat Feb 22, 2020 4:39 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:OK.  Just some more interesting facts about this February which for CPK, PHL, DCA, BAL, ABE is the snowiest month of the year.  

They all have registered 0 for the entire month and outside of some snow squall chances at the end of the month there's a good chance it remains 0 for all 5 aforementioned stations.  I just looked at CPK snowfall tables since 1869 and I find 4 instances where T of snow was recorded for February every other month had measurable snowfall.  I challenge anyone to find out how many times something like this has occurred where all 5 of aforementioned stations have recorded NO snowfall.

IMBY I have registered ~ .25".  Probably had a bit more though as i didn't count the squalls on February 14 as I was out of town.

BOS is officially .5" for February.  For some perspective on how crazy ranges can be, they got just under 100" February 2015.

I'm going to try wrapping my head around all of this, but probably won't be able to.  It's absolutely incredible and if it holds, dare to say unprecedented.

Just goes to show how these patterns are set in stone.The polar opposite of this year around these parts in 1995-1996 when nothing could go wrong for snow lovers.Even two years ago I got over 80 inches.Looking dismal for next week and I am rapidly getting to "throw in the towel day" on March 15th.Those northern New England areas are always great for snow regardless of the pattern , as you saw in your recent Vermont trip.It's always cold enough up there.

Had a low of 16.5 today, and a high of 50! Sitting at 46° currently. Towels are being thrown in left and right. It's absolutely unimaginable to not only have seen a near snowless February, but such warm temps as well! My Italian Parsley in the garden has new green sprouts already! Unfortunately it seems like the horrendous pattern will continue into March...
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Post by HectorO on Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:49 pm

@Radz wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:OK.  Just some more interesting facts about this February which for CPK, PHL, DCA, BAL, ABE is the snowiest month of the year.  

They all have registered 0 for the entire month and outside of some snow squall chances at the end of the month there's a good chance it remains 0 for all 5 aforementioned stations.  I just looked at CPK snowfall tables since 1869 and I find 4 instances where T of snow was recorded for February every other month had measurable snowfall.  I challenge anyone to find out how many times something like this has occurred where all 5 of aforementioned stations have recorded NO snowfall.

IMBY I have registered ~ .25".  Probably had a bit more though as i didn't count the squalls on February 14 as I was out of town.

BOS is officially .5" for February.  For some perspective on how crazy ranges can be, they got just under 100" February 2015.

I'm going to try wrapping my head around all of this, but probably won't be able to.  It's absolutely incredible and if it holds, dare to say unprecedented.

Just goes to show how these patterns are set in stone.The polar opposite of this year around these parts in 1995-1996 when nothing could go wrong for snow lovers.Even two years ago I got over 80 inches.Looking dismal for next week and I am rapidly getting to "throw in the towel day" on March 15th.Those northern New England areas are always great for snow regardless of the pattern , as you saw in your recent Vermont trip.It's always cold enough up there.

Had a low of 16.5 today, and a high of 50! Sitting at 46° currently. Towels are being thrown in left and right. It's absolutely unimaginable to not only have seen a near snowless February, but such warm temps as well! My Italian Parsley in the garden has new green sprouts already! Unfortunately it seems like the horrendous pattern will continue into March...

This winter has been worse than 2011/12.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:08 pm

@HectorO wrote:
@Radz wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:OK.  Just some more interesting facts about this February which for CPK, PHL, DCA, BAL, ABE is the snowiest month of the year.  

They all have registered 0 for the entire month and outside of some snow squall chances at the end of the month there's a good chance it remains 0 for all 5 aforementioned stations.  I just looked at CPK snowfall tables since 1869 and I find 4 instances where T of snow was recorded for February every other month had measurable snowfall.  I challenge anyone to find out how many times something like this has occurred where all 5 of aforementioned stations have recorded NO snowfall.

IMBY I have registered ~ .25".  Probably had a bit more though as i didn't count the squalls on February 14 as I was out of town.

BOS is officially .5" for February.  For some perspective on how crazy ranges can be, they got just under 100" February 2015.

I'm going to try wrapping my head around all of this, but probably won't be able to.  It's absolutely incredible and if it holds, dare to say unprecedented.

Just goes to show how these patterns are set in stone.The polar opposite of this year around these parts in 1995-1996 when nothing could go wrong for snow lovers.Even two years ago I got over 80 inches.Looking dismal for next week and I am rapidly getting to "throw in the towel day" on March 15th.Those northern New England areas are always great for snow regardless of the pattern , as you saw in your recent Vermont trip.It's always cold enough up there.

Had a low of 16.5 today, and a high of 50! Sitting at 46° currently. Towels are being thrown in left and right. It's absolutely unimaginable to not only have seen a near snowless February, but such warm temps as well! My Italian Parsley in the garden has new green sprouts already! Unfortunately it seems like the horrendous pattern will continue into March...

This winter has been worse than 2011/12.

I didn't think that was possible, but yes it has.
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Post by dkodgis on Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:04 am

Rain is the new snow
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Post by Radz on Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:01 am

Cold air next weekend, maybe Virginia/North Carolina will get another chance at accumulating snow while we will be high and dry lol
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Post by heehaw453 on Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:08 pm

I wanted to dig into this February snowfall anomaly a bit more. I felt I was leaving out things.

I just checked the snowfall observations carefully and CPK had a T on February 2nd and 7th.  This will mark only the 6th time (provided it holds) that no measurable snowfall has occurred in CPK during the month of February.  The list for CPK is as follows: 1938-T, 1971-T, 1981-T, 1998-0.0, 2002-T.  

I also checked carefully PHL, DCA, ABE and BWI snow records against those aforementioned nefarious years at CPK.  It looks like in 1998 was the ONLY time this abomination occurred.  ABE, CPK, DCA, PHL and BWI had no measurable snowfall during February 1998. 2002 was close, but ABE had .7" and DCA had .5".  The rest of the years every other station except CPK had measurable snowfall in February.

So > 100 years of observations per station and this could be the second time something like this has occurred.  A few days to go and half of which will be warm with no chance for snow.  The only way this doesn't hold is a rogue snow squall after 2/27.  I like the odds here and I truly appreciate the anomaly, regardless whether I like it or not.

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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:56 pm

Bridgeport - CT, Providence - RI both with no measurable snowfall so far this February.  Providence had measurable snowfall in 1998.

So ABE, BWI, PHL, CPK, DCA, PVD, BDR all with no measurable snowfall so far.

The scope of what's occurring this February so far is a once in a lifetime kind of thing.

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:44 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Bridgeport - CT, Providence - RI both with no measurable snowfall so far this February.  Providence had measurable snowfall in 1998.

So ABE, BWI, PHL, CPK, DCA, PVD, BDR all with no measurable snowfall so far.

The scope of what's occurring this February so far is a once in a lifetime kind of thing.
God help us if this extreme snowless pattern continues next year. That's my concern. Remember if it weren't for March bailing us out somewhat last winter, we would have ended up with similar results. Of course it's too soon to speculate what to expect next winter, but it's safe to say we're going to need a complete overhaul of the pattern.
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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:04 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Bridgeport - CT, Providence - RI both with no measurable snowfall so far this February.  Providence had measurable snowfall in 1998.

So ABE, BWI, PHL, CPK, DCA, PVD, BDR all with no measurable snowfall so far.

The scope of what's occurring this February so far is a once in a lifetime kind of thing.
God help us if this extreme snowless pattern continues next year. That's my concern. Remember if it weren't for March bailing us out somewhat last winter, we would have ended up with similar results. Of course it's too soon to speculate what to expect next winter, but it's safe to say we're going to need a complete overhaul of the pattern.

Yeah. As I wrote a while back 4 of the last 5 meteorological winters have been poor for most folks on this board. March and even November in some cases has helped to elevate seasonal snowfall. A lot of this misfortune has to do with PAC in recent years which has been really awful for us, but this year we had the arctic region join the party to sink us. This makes the obstacles to hard to overcome. Not sure I can wrap my head around this year quite honestly.

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Post by docstox12 on Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:11 am

I came on to see if anybody could help me figure out what these small, white objects were that were falling out of the sky a little while ago,LOL.
Sun breaking out, there were a few flurries and wind kicking up.
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Post by phil155 on Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:36 am

@docstox12 wrote:I came on to see if anybody could help me figure out what these small, white objects were that were falling out of the sky a little while ago,LOL.
Sun breaking out, there were a few flurries and wind kicking up.

I heard rumors about such things and I have seen them on TV and in movies but I have not seen any myself in person

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