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Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

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Post by sroc4 Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:24 am

jmanley32 wrote:It is unbelivable that we are about to have Zeta, and that louisiana may well see its THIRD strike from a hurricane in a 2 month period, I am pretty sure this has never happened anywhere on the US coast in a entire season let alone in a 2 month period.  Just nuts, and long rage GFS isn't quitting well into Nov...

Good morning Jon and everyone.  Definitely not unprecedented.  Not by a long shot.  The first year that came to my mind right away was 2004 because my sister and my brother from another mother were directly affected by 3 of them down in Fla.  

As you can see it started with August 12th Bonnie came ashore as a Trop storm.  One day later on August 13th Charlie landfalled as a Cat 4 just north of my buddy in Ft Meyers Beach.  He lives right on the one of the canals.  He said that after the winds started to calm down he and his neighbors were using their jet skis to go through his neighborhood to check on everyone.  

Fast forward less than a month to Sept 5th where Frances Made landfall as a Cat 2 just north of where my sister lived.(West Palm Beach).  Hurricane Ivan made landfall as a Cat 3 on Sept 16th near the wester Fla pan handle/E Alabama boarder after ravaging the island of Grenada on Sept7th as it passed only a few miles south of the tiny island where I had friends living at the time.  The stories they have are crazy; esp in the aftermath as most structural buildings were compromised and the looting was incredible.  Next was Jeanne on Sept 26th as a Cat 3 again making landfall in the exact same spot just north of my sister who lived in west palm beach as Frances back on the 5th.  

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 25 2004_h12



Now you may be saying what is that on the southern tip of Fla "Ivan as a trop depression" in the map above.  Well Ivan was one crazy system.  If Ivan the hurricane was put into human form this is what he might look like:

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 25 Ivan10


If you actually look at the entire life of Ivan's energy after making a landfall as a Cat 3 as stated above you can see in the below map it weakened over land into a Trop depression(blue circles) as it climbed latitude, exited the EC near the Delmarva before then regaining Trop storm status(green circles) and going on a crazy drive against traffic on the gulf stream freeway, before once again weakening back down to Trop depression status(blue circles) right as it passes over the southern tip of Fla near Miami and re-enters the GOM.  Once back into the GOM it regains its Trop storm status(green circles) and headed for yet another landfall near the western LA boarder.  It weakened back to a Trop depression right before landfall however.    

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 25 2004_h13



The very next year in the 2005 Hurricane season

June 11th Arlene Trop storm
August 29th the infamous Katrina as a Cat 3
About a week later to add insult to injury Cindy landfalled just west of where Katrina did as a Cat 1
and July 10th Dennis as a Cat 3


Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 25 2005_h10


There are many more years where there are multiple landfalls not that far apart in both geography and time.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:20 pm

Wel I stand corrected, and yes loving the tropics season I recall Ivan being crazy but I forgot the actual trip he took. Crazy for sure. And yes scott I am aware of the color coding lol. GFS now showing a cat 2 with Zeta. Poor them either way, they have had no power more than they have had power, looks so far might hit east of the area the last two did but still.

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Post by amugs Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:24 pm

SROC how about 1886 when 26 tropical storms were named and 4 hit Texas in a 8 week timeframe - 2 CAT 4's, one wiped Indianola off the map killing thousands!!! Hypothesis are if that was satellite era there would have ben 6-10 more named storms by the activity and pressure pattern that year.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:15 pm

amugs wrote:SROC how about 1886 when 26 tropical storms were named and 4 hit Texas in a 8 week timeframe - 2 CAT 4's, one wiped Indianola off the map killing thousands!!! Hypothesis are if that was satellite era there would have ben 6-10 more named storms by the activity and pressure pattern that year.

Wow! Great stuff Mugs.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:01 pm

Wow Zeta may regenerate intoa subtropical storm as it exits NJ, will be on the northern side so could be arough Friday, heavy rain and windy. At least its not Sat to ruin halloween like so many years do. Halloween is already kinda ruined due to COVID anyways.
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:17 am

From JD at WxBell

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 25 Landfalls(1)

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 25 1800_hurricances

1886 the ones they knew of
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 25 1886

So point being this isnt the worse season teh MSM and the fear mongrel's are portraying
1893 NOLA got it 2x!!
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 25 1893

Look at 2005 WOWZA
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 25 Tracks_at_2005_sm(2)

2020 - right there so far
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 25 1024px_2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map__3_(1)


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Post by GreyBeard Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:15 pm

amugs wrote:SROC how about 1886 when 26 tropical storms were named and 4 hit Texas in a 8 week timeframe - 2 CAT 4's, one wiped Indianola off the map killing thousands!!! Hypothesis are if that was satellite era there would have ben 6-10 more named storms by the activity and pressure pattern that year.




Huh? The numbers you say "killing thousands" is grossly overstated. The number of people who lost their lives in the Indianola hurricane is actually 46 with another 28 in Cuba for a total of 74.There wasn't even 1,000 people living there at the time.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1886_Indianola_hurricane

https://www.ghosttowns.com/states/tx/indianola.html

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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:00 pm

GreyBeard wrote:
amugs wrote:SROC how about 1886 when 26 tropical storms were named and 4 hit Texas in a 8 week timeframe - 2 CAT 4's, one wiped Indianola off the map killing thousands!!! Hypothesis are if that was satellite era there would have ben 6-10 more named storms by the activity and pressure pattern that year.




Huh? The numbers you say "killing thousands" is grossly overstated. The number of people who lost their lives in the Indianola hurricane is actually 46 with another 28 in Cuba for a total of 74.There wasn't even 1,000 people living there at the time.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1886_Indianola_hurricane

https://www.ghosttowns.com/states/tx/indianola.html

Not sure wikipedia is the best source of accuarate info.  A quick search and I found that at its peak before the 1875 cat 3 hurricane the population was betwen 5000-6000.  Most of the town was destroyed and estimaetes that I have found in various articles state that 200-300 people died and many left after 1875.  By 1886 the towns population was estimated at about 1700 or so.  

https://www.kztv10.com/news/2019/05/08/hurricanes-of-the-past-indianola-1875-1886/
“The residents kept trying to rebuild. But by the time of the second hurricane in 1886, there was only about 1700 people left.”  

As far as deaths Im sure the total number was grossly underestimated regarding 46 as a total, but clearly in the small town of Indianola in 1886 it wasnt thousands.  That said that Indianola is only one small town affected in the overall region by that cane.   It is definitely not out of the realm of possibility that the death toll from that hurricane of which made landfall in the town of Indianola, did in fact total in the thousands when you factor in all the surrounding areas likely heavily impacted as well; esp to the east of landfall along the coast due to surge, collapsing structures given the time in history, the likelyhood of flash flooding in certain areas in and around the region of landfall due to high rainfall totals etc and the fact that there were no media outlets to provide advanced warnings. Many people that died in that era were simply buried on the family farm and no government was notified for officially tallies.

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Post by GreyBeard Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:04 pm

You make some valid points. That first hurricane in 1885 did the damage and many chose to leave and not rebuild resulting in a decreased population. As we both know, record keeping wasn't a top priority back in the day, and as a result the numbers will vary depending on what source one decides to use as a reference.

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Post by amugs Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:16 am

Oh boy those new and rebuilt flood walls adn levee system will see a test with this, not majorily but still

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 25 091827_peak_surge

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:01 pm

Almost a category 3!!
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:09 pm

WOW, I do not think I have seen a tropical storm warning from the gulf coast to virginia over land, thats insane!! What is causing Zeta to be able to maintain that long? And ya wow on intensification, not expected and not good.

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Post by amugs Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:38 pm

Made landfall as a top end CAT 110 mph winds, saving grace it moving very fast.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:22 pm

Looks like at least one more tropical system and the 12z run is bad showing a repeat of isiais, way far off but EC may have watch this for a hybrid transformation as it gets picked up kinda the same way Isiais did.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 25 Gfs_re10

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 25 Gfs_ms23
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:33 pm

MOG!!! After sitting over cuba and south FL for days looks like goes OTS then heads back to US in a almost dandy like retrograde but wider on that run, in fantasy land. For some reason I feel like this is go be a major one to watch for FL and EC, though CMC and Euro want to take it across into pacific but recent Euro is more in line GFS.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 25 Gfs_ms24
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:21 pm

Omg eta is almost a cat 5. This will destroy everything down there. So close to landfall. May reach cat 5. At 150mph now.
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Post by Radz Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:14 pm

Recon in there now... one of the strongest in Atlantic basin to be determined?
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:28 am

Radz wrote:Recon in there now... one of the strongest in Atlantic basin to be determined?
there's been plenty of 150mph hurricanes for several years including Dorian last year we have had storms upwards of 200mph.
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:33 am

This morning's GFS is crazy, brings the remnants of the storm back east, redevelops near Cuba, gets stuck for a few days and then moves north, to guess where?  LA/MS/AL coast! Glad it is so far out, but crazy to see. Euro showing a similar situation.

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Post by Radz Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:12 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Radz wrote:Recon in there now... one of the strongest in Atlantic basin to be determined?
there's been plenty of 150mph hurricanes for several years including Dorian last year we have had storms upwards of 200mph.

yes, but the intensity was being determined by satellite imagery only (Dvorak scale) because of lack of recon, it looked much stronger than the actual verified measurements...
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Post by amugs Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:42 pm

HERE COMES #30

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 25 Two_atl_5d0

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Post by GreyBeard Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:32 am

I assume everybody is thinking about winter now, but the record breaking tropical season continues. Was just reading Iota has reached Cat.5 status and is forecast to make landfall tonight in Nicaragua with 160 mph winds and up to 36" of rain. The area is still reeling from the hit it took 2 weeks ago from Eta as a Cat.4.Pretty frightening. I guess "out of sight,out of mind", but you have to feel for those poor people.

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Post by amugs Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:41 am

Absolutely Greybeard and....there could be another one next week in the Carrrib4an but this time central from the looks of the maps.

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Post by Grselig Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:41 pm

GreyBeard wrote:I assume everybody is thinking about winter now, but the record breaking tropical season continues. Was just reading Iota has reached Cat.5 status and is forecast to make landfall tonight in Nicaragua with 160 mph winds and up to 36" of rain. The area is still reeling from the hit it took 2 weeks ago from Eta as a Cat.4.Pretty frightening. I guess "out of sight,out of mind", but you have to feel for those poor people.

Thanks for posting. So consumed with local (United States and home) that its easy to forget the rest of the world we live in. Prayers that things get better and not worse for the world.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:15 pm

MOG Cat 5 IOTA 160mph winds is going to decimate central america tonight into tomorrow, god help those poor people. It may be uninhabitable after this....

ANYTHING ELSE 2020!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!???????????
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Post by Analog96 Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:49 pm

jmanley32 wrote:MOG Cat 5 IOTA 160mph winds is going to decimate central america tonight into tomorrow, god help those poor people. It may be uninhabitable after this....

ANYTHING ELSE 2020!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!???????????
Absolutely ridiculous. That area just got hit by a Cat 4 two weeks ago, now a Cat 5!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:58 am

Analog96 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:MOG Cat 5 IOTA 160mph winds is going to decimate central america tonight into tomorrow, god help those poor people. It may be uninhabitable after this....

ANYTHING ELSE 2020!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!???????????
Absolutely ridiculous.  That area just got hit by a Cat 4 two weeks ago, now a Cat 5!
Not sure what IOTA was at at landfall but at 130mph inland is sooo bad. I cannot imagine the images we are going to see. Analog been a long time, have not seen you post in dare I say at least a year?
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