Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

jmanley32 wrote:It is unbelivable that we are about to have Zeta, and that louisiana may well see its THIRD strike from a hurricane in a 2 month period, I am pretty sure this has never happened anywhere on the US coast in a entire season let alone in a 2 month period.  Just nuts, and long rage GFS isn't quitting well into Nov...

Good morning Jon and everyone.  Definitely not unprecedented.  Not by a long shot.  The first year that came to my mind right away was 2004 because my sister and my brother from another mother were directly affected by 3 of them down in Fla.  

As you can see it started with August 12th Bonnie came ashore as a Trop storm.  One day later on August 13th Charlie landfalled as a Cat 4 just north of my buddy in Ft Meyers Beach.  He lives right on the one of the canals.  He said that after the winds started to calm down he and his neighbors were using their jet skis to go through his neighborhood to check on everyone.  

Fast forward less than a month to Sept 5th where Frances Made landfall as a Cat 2 just north of where my sister lived.(West Palm Beach).  Hurricane Ivan made landfall as a Cat 3 on Sept 16th near the wester Fla pan handle/E Alabama boarder after ravaging the island of Grenada on Sept7th as it passed only a few miles south of the tiny island where I had friends living at the time.  The stories they have are crazy; esp in the aftermath as most structural buildings were compromised and the looting was incredible.  Next was Jeanne on Sept 26th as a Cat 3 again making landfall in the exact same spot just north of my sister who lived in west palm beach as Frances back on the 5th.  





Now you may be saying what is that on the southern tip of Fla "Ivan as a trop depression" in the map above.  Well Ivan was one crazy system.  If Ivan the hurricane was put into human form this is what he might look like:




If you actually look at the entire life of Ivan's energy after making a landfall as a Cat 3 as stated above you can see in the below map it weakened over land into a Trop depression(blue circles) as it climbed latitude, exited the EC near the Delmarva before then regaining Trop storm status(green circles) and going on a crazy drive against traffic on the gulf stream freeway, before once again weakening back down to Trop depression status(blue circles) right as it passes over the southern tip of Fla near Miami and re-enters the GOM.  Once back into the GOM it regains its Trop storm status(green circles) and headed for yet another landfall near the western LA boarder.  It weakened back to a Trop depression right before landfall however.    





The very next year in the 2005 Hurricane season

June 11th Arlene Trop storm
August 29th the infamous Katrina as a Cat 3
About a week later to add insult to injury Cindy landfalled just west of where Katrina did as a Cat 1
and July 10th Dennis as a Cat 3





There are many more years where there are multiple landfalls not that far apart in both geography and time.

Wel I stand corrected, and yes loving the tropics season I recall Ivan being crazy but I forgot the actual trip he took. Crazy for sure. And yes scott I am aware of the color coding lol. GFS now showing a cat 2 with Zeta. Poor them either way, they have had no power more than they have had power, looks so far might hit east of the area the last two did but still.

SROC how about 1886 when 26 tropical storms were named and 4 hit Texas in a 8 week timeframe - 2 CAT 4's, one wiped Indianola off the map killing thousands!!! Hypothesis are if that was satellite era there would have ben 6-10 more named storms by the activity and pressure pattern that year.

amugs wrote:SROC how about 1886 when 26 tropical storms were named and 4 hit Texas in a 8 week timeframe - 2 CAT 4's, one wiped Indianola off the map killing thousands!!! Hypothesis are if that was satellite era there would have ben 6-10 more named storms by the activity and pressure pattern that year.

Wow! Great stuff Mugs.

Wow Zeta may regenerate intoa subtropical storm as it exits NJ, will be on the northern side so could be arough Friday, heavy rain and windy. At least its not Sat to ruin halloween like so many years do. Halloween is already kinda ruined due to COVID anyways.

From JD at WxBell





1886 the ones they knew of


So point being this isnt the worse season teh MSM and the fear mongrel's are portraying
1893 NOLA got it 2x!!


Look at 2005 WOWZA


2020 - right there so far

amugs wrote:SROC how about 1886 when 26 tropical storms were named and 4 hit Texas in a 8 week timeframe - 2 CAT 4's, one wiped Indianola off the map killing thousands!!! Hypothesis are if that was satellite era there would have ben 6-10 more named storms by the activity and pressure pattern that year.

Huh? The numbers you say "killing thousands" is grossly overstated. The number of people who lost their lives in the Indianola hurricane is actually 46 with another 28 in Cuba for a total of 74.There wasn't even 1,000 people living there at the time.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1886_Indianola_hurricane

https://www.ghosttowns.com/states/tx/indianola.html

GreyBeard wrote:

amugs wrote:SROC how about 1886 when 26 tropical storms were named and 4 hit Texas in a 8 week timeframe - 2 CAT 4's, one wiped Indianola off the map killing thousands!!! Hypothesis are if that was satellite era there would have ben 6-10 more named storms by the activity and pressure pattern that year.

Huh? The numbers you say "killing thousands" is grossly overstated. The number of people who lost their lives in the Indianola hurricane is actually 46 with another 28 in Cuba for a total of 74.There wasn't even 1,000 people living there at the time.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1886_Indianola_hurricane

https://www.ghosttowns.com/states/tx/indianola.html

Not sure wikipedia is the best source of accuarate info.  A quick search and I found that at its peak before the 1875 cat 3 hurricane the population was betwen 5000-6000.  Most of the town was destroyed and estimaetes that I have found in various articles state that 200-300 people died and many left after 1875.  By 1886 the towns population was estimated at about 1700 or so.  

https://www.kztv10.com/news/2019/05/08/hurricanes-of-the-past-indianola-1875-1886/
“The residents kept trying to rebuild. But by the time of the second hurricane in 1886, there was only about 1700 people left.”  

As far as deaths Im sure the total number was grossly underestimated regarding 46 as a total, but clearly in the small town of Indianola in 1886 it wasnt thousands.  That said that Indianola is only one small town affected in the overall region by that cane.   It is definitely not out of the realm of possibility that the death toll from that hurricane of which made landfall in the town of Indianola, did in fact total in the thousands when you factor in all the surrounding areas likely heavily impacted as well; esp to the east of landfall along the coast due to surge, collapsing structures given the time in history, the likelyhood of flash flooding in certain areas in and around the region of landfall due to high rainfall totals etc and the fact that there were no media outlets to provide advanced warnings. Many people that died in that era were simply buried on the family farm and no government was notified for officially tallies.

You make some valid points. That first hurricane in 1885 did the damage and many chose to leave and not rebuild resulting in a decreased population. As we both know, record keeping wasn't a top priority back in the day, and as a result the numbers will vary depending on what source one decides to use as a reference.

Oh boy those new and rebuilt flood walls adn levee system will see a test with this, not majorily but still

Almost a category 3!!

WOW, I do not think I have seen a tropical storm warning from the gulf coast to virginia over land, thats insane!! What is causing Zeta to be able to maintain that long? And ya wow on intensification, not expected and not good.

Made landfall as a top end CAT 110 mph winds, saving grace it moving very fast.

Looks like at least one more tropical system and the 12z run is bad showing a repeat of isiais, way far off but EC may have watch this for a hybrid transformation as it gets picked up kinda the same way Isiais did.

MOG!!! After sitting over cuba and south FL for days looks like goes OTS then heads back to US in a almost dandy like retrograde but wider on that run, in fantasy land. For some reason I feel like this is go be a major one to watch for FL and EC, though CMC and Euro want to take it across into pacific but recent Euro is more in line GFS.

Omg eta is almost a cat 5. This will destroy everything down there. So close to landfall. May reach cat 5. At 150mph now.

Recon in there now... one of the strongest in Atlantic basin to be determined?

Radz wrote:Recon in there now... one of the strongest in Atlantic basin to be determined?

there's been plenty of 150mph hurricanes for several years including Dorian last year we have had storms upwards of 200mph.

This morning's GFS is crazy, brings the remnants of the storm back east, redevelops near Cuba, gets stuck for a few days and then moves north, to guess where?  LA/MS/AL coast! Glad it is so far out, but crazy to see. Euro showing a similar situation.

jmanley32 wrote:

Radz wrote:Recon in there now... one of the strongest in Atlantic basin to be determined?

there's been plenty of 150mph hurricanes for several years including Dorian last year we have had storms upwards of 200mph.

yes, but the intensity was being determined by satellite imagery only (Dvorak scale) because of lack of recon, it looked much stronger than the actual verified measurements...

HERE COMES #30

I assume everybody is thinking about winter now, but the record breaking tropical season continues. Was just reading Iota has reached Cat.5 status and is forecast to make landfall tonight in Nicaragua with 160 mph winds and up to 36" of rain. The area is still reeling from the hit it took 2 weeks ago from Eta as a Cat.4.Pretty frightening. I guess "out of sight,out of mind", but you have to feel for those poor people.

Absolutely Greybeard and....there could be another one next week in the Carrrib4an but this time central from the looks of the maps.

GreyBeard wrote:I assume everybody is thinking about winter now, but the record breaking tropical season continues. Was just reading Iota has reached Cat.5 status and is forecast to make landfall tonight in Nicaragua with 160 mph winds and up to 36" of rain. The area is still reeling from the hit it took 2 weeks ago from Eta as a Cat.4.Pretty frightening. I guess "out of sight,out of mind", but you have to feel for those poor people.

Thanks for posting. So consumed with local (United States and home) that its easy to forget the rest of the world we live in. Prayers that things get better and not worse for the world.

MOG Cat 5 IOTA 160mph winds is going to decimate central america tonight into tomorrow, god help those poor people. It may be uninhabitable after this....

ANYTHING ELSE 2020!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!???????????

jmanley32 wrote:MOG Cat 5 IOTA 160mph winds is going to decimate central america tonight into tomorrow, god help those poor people. It may be uninhabitable after this....

ANYTHING ELSE 2020!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!???????????

Absolutely ridiculous. That area just got hit by a Cat 4 two weeks ago, now a Cat 5!

Analog96 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:MOG Cat 5 IOTA 160mph winds is going to decimate central america tonight into tomorrow, god help those poor people. It may be uninhabitable after this....

ANYTHING ELSE 2020!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!???????????

Absolutely ridiculous.  That area just got hit by a Cat 4 two weeks ago, now a Cat 5!

Not sure what IOTA was at at landfall but at 130mph inland is sooo bad. I cannot imagine the images we are going to see. Analog been a long time, have not seen you post in dare I say at least a year?