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Post by rb924119 on Sat May 16, 2020 8:15 pm

I’m officially celebrating now haha Ryan, I’m still confused as to what you’re saying, but if you feel it would be flogging a dead horse, we can move on haha it’s amazing what a break in the shear can do for a tropical system. Jman, I haven’t followed the evolution of this system closely, as I was mainly concerned with its initial development given my previous and long-standing ideas. That said, overwhelming consensus is for this to remain a fish storm. It’s certainly a close call, but without further analysis I don’t want to say anything definitive haha

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Post by SoulSingMG on Sat May 16, 2020 11:52 pm

We now officially have our first named storm in what looks to be a very busy upcoming hurricane season!

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Post by dkodgis on Sun May 17, 2020 7:27 am

A swing and a miss
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun May 17, 2020 10:35 am

Yeah this morning's cone drastically shifted more east. So are we still going to see all this rain or not because I thought it was a interaction of the 2.
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Post by rb924119 on Wed May 20, 2020 11:43 pm

I postulated last week with a couple coworkers that I wonder if we don’t quiet down substantially during the second-half, and climatological peak, of the season. We seem to be experiencing periods of ~3-5 months of alternatingĀ large-scale forcing in the equatorial Pacific since last year (largely enhancing particular phases of the MJO, 8-3/4-7 in alternate fashion), and this period of more favorable alignment began back in the beginning of April, evenĀ if we only recently realized the tropical potential. Therefore, if we extrapolated this out, July-August should show a reversal/downward trend in tropical activity, *assuming this observation would hold*. I have not looked seriously into this yet, but it’s an interesting observation/out loud thought, at least to me lol

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Post by GreyBeard on Thu May 21, 2020 5:27 pm

NOAA bullish on a more active season. 60% chance for an above normal season, according to them.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/busy-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted-for-2020

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat May 23, 2020 5:43 pm

Fantasyland GFS has a hurricane anywhere from Florida to central Gulf around day 13-16. Ways off but fits the time frame RB talking about, we always see a lull in July/August and see all our storms late august to end October.
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Post by mwilli on Tue May 26, 2020 8:54 am

Just looked the GFS model(long term)showing tropical storm/hurricane at 981-984 low pressure for 6/7-6/8 hitting Louisana,Orleans,I know this is preliminary and things could change(I hope)but keep a eye on this.....

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed May 27, 2020 11:10 am

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TS Bertha makes landfall in S Carolina. We hardly knew ya.
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