Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

SoulSingMG wrote:It’s gon’ RAIN.

sroc4 wrote:

oldtimer wrote:I’m in Suffolk County. I’m in for alittle over 2”.  I expected much more.   I guess the track gets most west

Old timer. Because the system Interacts with The trough it will transition from a tropical low to a hybrid system. Once this interaction takes place baroclinic(temperature) driven forcing takes over shifting the moisture field to the NW quadrant. Picture the comma shaped nor’easter. As a result the eastern side of the LP center will be much drier the the western side.  

We shall see if any of those totals actually come to fruition. The speed at which it races northeast could cut down on the totals. ESP the eastern side but even the western side. Several inches will still likely fall on the western side but if a model prints out 5” don’t be surprised if it’s more like 2-3” when all is said and done. That said if it’s slower than forecast all bets are off.


We TRACK!!!  

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:very impressive windfield being found on north and east side so far, much higher than earlier runs, likely due to the reduced to almost zero shear.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF300-1909A-ISAIAS.png

Hey John, there is still plenty of shear.  There are two main things to look at that shows it.  First, and this has been th case for the past 2 days, is the convection is clearly tiltied to the N and NE side of where the low level center is located.  Click on the link you provided above of the latest recon wind field and you can easily see this compared to where the latest center is located.  

Second:   Look at the image below first.  With the yellow banana are clouds that are moving westward towards the western coast of Fla.  BUT, Notice that they all seem to have these smoke trails that move back east towards the system.  This is upper level wind shear.  Thunderstorms are trying to build but when they get high enough in the atmosphere the tops get blown off.  When the upper level winds move towards or perpendicular to the track you get shear.  


Now Click on the visible Sat loop I have below to see it in real time.  
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis

As the system gains some latitude there will be a time when the shear speed will slow some and the shear direction gets closer to paralell to the track of the system.  This in turn decreases shear.  If its still over open water, somewhere in the yellow circle below then there may be a small window to restrengthen to a hurricane.  Im not holding my breath though as this will also begin its interactions with the trough and gaining forward momentum on its N to NE ward track.  Pressures have fallen slightly but these pulses of convection that flare, recenter, then get knocked down and pushed NNE will likley cont leading to increases and decreases in the wind speeds by as much as 10-15MPH up and down.  Id also like to point out that as it gains lat and undergoes its transition to hybrid from warm core system the wind field tends to spread out where the highests gusts may be well away from the center by the time it reaches our latitude.  Just some things to keep an eye on.    

Dunnzoo wrote:Advisories, watches and warnings, oh my! When have we seen so many in the same area at once???

jmanley32 wrote:new low level recon is finding a large area of winds 70mph plus and one reading 85mph. We may have a hurricane at 11pm.

SoulSingMG wrote:I’d be surprised if Isaias isn’t a hurricane again with the 11pm NHC update.

amugs wrote:The jet streak over head for himnwill help enhance his fwd speed. Right quadrant exit for him.
Winds are pretty interesting on the 3K NAM. Even if we cut 10 mph on this still good strong winds that will cause issues.