Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

amugs wrote:The jet streak over head for himnwill help enhance his fwd speed. Right quadrant exit for him.
Winds are pretty interesting on the 3K NAM. Even if we cut 10 mph on this still good strong winds that will cause issues.

do you have the next step image, do those browns get into this area?

Most of the higher winds with Isaias isn't really found at the surface, would be surprised if it's a cat 1 yet, more likely in the morning if anything

not a hurricane surprising, they also greatly reduced the percentage chance for the area to see TS force winds almost all us out of 20%, i think that changes though, the nhc changes their mind a lot.

Sanchize06 wrote:Most of the higher winds with Isaias isn't really found at the surface, would be surprised if it's a cat 1 yet, more likely in the morning if anything

Yup. No cigar. (Yet...)

11:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 2
Location: 28.5°N 79.8°W
Moving: NNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

SoulSingMG wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Most of the higher winds with Isaias isn't really found at the surface, would be surprised if it's a cat 1 yet, more likely in the morning if anything

Yup. No cigar. (Yet...)

11:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 2
Location: 28.5°N 79.8°W
Moving: NNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

It'll likely be a hurricane by morning. Looks like it's losing some of the dry air on the SW side and with sheer weakening, this will be it's time to intensify a bit

Euro continues to cut precip amounts, but very strong with the winds

TS warnings up phone just woke me with the alert. Def go be more intense with the winds than last storm and more widespread. Winds generally 30 to 60mph with gusts 65 to 75mph depending where you are. Also a potential chance of tornadoes which we didn't have with last one.

Sanchize06 wrote:Euro continues to cut precip amounts, but very strong with the winds

jeeze even 10mph slower there's still go be a lot outages. Still not a hurricane I was surprised. Also no missions out guess they getting tired lol

Nhc has him a 75 mph cane shortly. And 65moh up here up from 45mph storm yesterday.

I expect the track, esp north of landfall, to shift east a little today.  With shear letting up today, less dry air, and warm SST(sitting right on the edge of the gulf stream)this is the time I expect him to gain some strength.  As a result a Coriolis effect vector gains some strength as the track is now north and gaining latitude.  As it conts to gain lat and perhaps strength, the Coriolis effect (tendency to recurve NE due to earths rotation) should only increase.  Im not talking drastic shifts here as the 700-500mb steering flow conts to be modeled pretty consistently, but subtle shifts of 25-50miles still could have impacts regarding rain totals and winds etc. in and around our coverage area.  My guess is the center passes somewhere between Long Beach and Jones beach LI.  

What time do you think isaias will pass over western Suffolk county?

Dis2cruise wrote:What time do you think isaias will pass over western Suffolk county?

If I had to guess Id say the center will pass by somewhere between 5-6pm and 9-10pm tomorrow eve.

sroc4 wrote:I expect the track, esp north of landfall, to shift east a little today.  With shear letting up today, less dry air, and warm SST(sitting right on the edge of the gulf stream)this is the time I expect him to gain some strength.  As a result a Coriolis effect vector gains some strength as the track is now north and gaining latitude.  As it conts to gain lat and perhaps strength, the Coriolis effect (tendency to recurve NE due to earths rotation) should only increase.  Im not talking drastic shifts here as the 700-500mb steering flow conts to be modeled pretty consistently, but subtle shifts of 25-50miles still could have impacts regarding rain totals and winds etc. in and around our coverage area.  My guess is the center passes somewhere between Long Beach and Jones beach LI.  

Well for my weather weenie i hope its not that far east as i would see nothing but rain (boring), lets see if you are right. You just want to take my winds away to you lol, that would put you smack to the right in the worst part.

Judging from current models scott thats a good 100+ mile shift to the east (currently over central to west NJ on models).

sroc4 wrote:

Dis2cruise wrote:What time do you think isaias will pass over western Suffolk county?

If I had to guess Id say the center will pass by somewhere between 5-6pm and 9-10pm tomorrow eve.  

Thanks

HMON is closest to your track over just east of NYC.

An east shift is fine with me! I will take the rain but not the wind.

WOW UKMET!!! HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS! Take 10mph off like mugs said, but still and scott thats your track right there to a T, did you peak firt lol. I still see decent winds but more rain too.

docstox12 wrote:An east shift is fine with me! I will take the rain but not the wind.

hey doc had a stat question yesterday, is it a record to have two tropical systems pass over nyc in a year let alone a month apart?

The wind crosses my mind, too, Doc. Anyone want to venture a guess around these here parts? I see some 4-6 inches of rain but the tick-toc on wind is scant.

dkodgis wrote:The wind crosses my mind, too, Doc.  Anyone want to venture a guess around these here parts? I see some 4-6 inches of rain but the tick-toc on wind is scant.

just posted the ukmet wind gusts above and further up someone posted the euro, if they play out pretty high even up there.

Winds concern me the most if on the east side. Irene and Sandy lost power for 7 days. 8am advisory coming up but looking forward to the 11am that could be telling with intensity and better handling on exact track.

Media keeps saying, "well, pretty much locked in on track, a little wobble won't make much of a difference". Totally disagree for those in NJ! It could mean the difference between 2-4" or 4-6"! I am really concerned since I am sometimes in the crosshairs and sometimes to the east of the track. We have a pretty large stream running through town, and we are in BIG trouble if we get more than 2 inches of rain. I just wish they wouldn't be so cavalier about the track, too much at stake in NJ. ok, rant over!

It does seem slower moving=rain on the high end

What do you all think about winds here in Morris County? I'm trying to decide if I should clear everything off my deck (plants, plastic Adirondack chairs, etc).  I am finding it hard to believe we will get such strong sustained winds this far inland from this storm.

Gusts. I have seen gusts do more than sustained wind

Seems like it weaken a bit, as of 8:00 am NHC says sustained winds at 60 knts - 70 MPH forcast to become a cane later today.

we shall see