Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
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35 posters
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SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
thats a sandy like track but much further north, what are the chances this happens as far south as our latitude? The GFS is very different, didn't we say the Euro was handling the trops poorly this year? And that the GFS was doing well? The other thing is thats some pretty damn consistant sgetti models all in line with each other, this far out im go say wow.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:51 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Which area is the hurricane? And where is it headed? Any chance this could be a concern for our area or is SNE the most south it would get, either way would not be good, some runs are showing a sub 950mb storm. Oh NVM I see him, wow thats a close call.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Only in 2020 would a hurricane from Bermuda take a NW to NNW track into NE or the canadian maratimes, thats a extremely unheard of track.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
2.7% chance Jon it even comes close.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
lol VERY precise percentage you got there, yeah I think it stays off any oand other than bermuda. Poor Loisiana they are looking at another hurricane same spot just after power has started to return. If GFS is correct.sroc4 wrote:2.7% chance Jon it even comes close.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Teddy will only give us big waves thats it
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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sroc4 likes this post
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Tropics taking a hiatus for now and then once this Kelvin Wave makes it way out or east it will fire up the Caribbean and with teh deep reinforcing trough over the Midwest and the HP over Greenland region - east coast HAS to keep an eye on this et up.
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Mugs
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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
good looking out mugs. btw several people are now asking me what's the outlook for winter? in a polite voice I only tell them I'm still on the tropic's but keeping a"side eye" on the carribean.
mwilli- Posts : 132
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
06z GFS has a strong hurricane into the bend of florida then rides the coast very similar to Isiais and places NY east in the wind but the rain is nor so displaced to the west, way far out and def not showing up each run, over 300 hrs away, lets see in 10 days.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Could some rain and winds out this as it morphs when it comes N
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
I heard Delta could possibly be a Cat.2 when it makes landfall in the northern gulf. Seems like every hurricane this season has come ashore in the same general area. Those poor folks have to be battle scarred by now.
GreyBeard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Delta is officially a hcane, Recon aborted a mission to fly into Delta from Gamma. Never heard that one before
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Delta really took off today. Now a cat 4 with 120kt winds
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
WOW, they cannot catch a break! Looks like we could see some remnant impacts,
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
WOW, they cannot catch a break! Looks like we could see some remnant impacts,
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
They are a magnet for Hcanes - Laura now Delta yikes!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Surge
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
The Euro has nearly 4-6 inches rain up here coming from leftovers of Delta yikes.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Look what fell in rain down there. 18 inches in 12 hours.
https://nypost.com/2020/10/10/hurricane-delta-drops-over-a-foot-of-rain-on-southwest-louisiana/
https://nypost.com/2020/10/10/hurricane-delta-drops-over-a-foot-of-rain-on-southwest-louisiana/
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
UMM 06z GFS FL and Tristate/New England, fantasy land but def falls in the time frame talked about. Thats one massive hybrid that heads up here. FL gets slammed.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
ACE -Complimets of WxBell and JD
Not parallel to the Number of Named storms - weak sauce overall - again some would have never cut it as trop storms being named if 20-25 years ago maybe 15. Definitely not anytime before this timeframe IMO.
Major Landfall hcanes
12 tropical systems have made landfall on the Continental US
Trop Systems named = 26
1 Tropical Depression
17 Tropical Storms
8 Hcanes- 3 of which were major
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
Auxiliary list
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta
Epsilon (active)
Not parallel to the Number of Named storms - weak sauce overall - again some would have never cut it as trop storms being named if 20-25 years ago maybe 15. Definitely not anytime before this timeframe IMO.
Major Landfall hcanes
12 tropical systems have made landfall on the Continental US
Trop Systems named = 26
1 Tropical Depression
17 Tropical Storms
8 Hcanes- 3 of which were major
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
Auxiliary list
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta
Epsilon (active)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
It is unbelivable that we are about to have Zeta, and that louisiana may well see its THIRD strike from a hurricane in a 2 month period, I am pretty sure this has never happened anywhere on the US coast in a entire season let alone in a 2 month period. Just nuts, and long rage GFS isn't quitting well into Nov...
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
jmanley32 wrote:It is unbelivable that we are about to have Zeta, and that louisiana may well see its THIRD strike from a hurricane in a 2 month period, I am pretty sure this has never happened anywhere on the US coast in a entire season let alone in a 2 month period. Just nuts, and long rage GFS isn't quitting well into Nov...
Good morning Jon and everyone. Definitely not unprecedented. Not by a long shot. The first year that came to my mind right away was 2004 because my sister and my brother from another mother were directly affected by 3 of them down in Fla.
As you can see it started with August 12th Bonnie came ashore as a Trop storm. One day later on August 13th Charlie landfalled as a Cat 4 just north of my buddy in Ft Meyers Beach. He lives right on the one of the canals. He said that after the winds started to calm down he and his neighbors were using their jet skis to go through his neighborhood to check on everyone.
Fast forward less than a month to Sept 5th where Frances Made landfall as a Cat 2 just north of where my sister lived.(West Palm Beach). Hurricane Ivan made landfall as a Cat 3 on Sept 16th near the wester Fla pan handle/E Alabama boarder after ravaging the island of Grenada on Sept7th as it passed only a few miles south of the tiny island where I had friends living at the time. The stories they have are crazy; esp in the aftermath as most structural buildings were compromised and the looting was incredible. Next was Jeanne on Sept 26th as a Cat 3 again making landfall in the exact same spot just north of my sister who lived in west palm beach as Frances back on the 5th.
Now you may be saying what is that on the southern tip of Fla "Ivan as a trop depression" in the map above. Well Ivan was one crazy system. If Ivan the hurricane was put into human form this is what he might look like:
If you actually look at the entire life of Ivan's energy after making a landfall as a Cat 3 as stated above you can see in the below map it weakened over land into a Trop depression(blue circles) as it climbed latitude, exited the EC near the Delmarva before then regaining Trop storm status(green circles) and going on a crazy drive against traffic on the gulf stream freeway, before once again weakening back down to Trop depression status(blue circles) right as it passes over the southern tip of Fla near Miami and re-enters the GOM. Once back into the GOM it regains its Trop storm status(green circles) and headed for yet another landfall near the western LA boarder. It weakened back to a Trop depression right before landfall however.
The very next year in the 2005 Hurricane season
June 11th Arlene Trop storm
August 29th the infamous Katrina as a Cat 3
About a week later to add insult to injury Cindy landfalled just west of where Katrina did as a Cat 1
and July 10th Dennis as a Cat 3
There are many more years where there are multiple landfalls not that far apart in both geography and time.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Wel I stand corrected, and yes loving the tropics season I recall Ivan being crazy but I forgot the actual trip he took. Crazy for sure. And yes scott I am aware of the color coding lol. GFS now showing a cat 2 with Zeta. Poor them either way, they have had no power more than they have had power, looks so far might hit east of the area the last two did but still.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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