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Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:41 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:The 12z EPS is umm, disconcerting. Shocked

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 24 89001710

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 24 282ba310
thats a sandy like track but much further north, what are the chances this happens as far south as our latitude?  The GFS is very different, didn't we say the Euro was handling the trops poorly this year?  And that the GFS was doing well? The other thing is thats some pretty damn consistant sgetti models all in line with each other, this far out im go say wow.


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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:44 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Not to get too far ahead of ourselves but here is the Operational euro for next week Tuesday time frame. If the ridge we’re a bit stronger southern NE would have to watch closely.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 24 E595b910
Which area is the hurricane? And where is it headed? Any chance this could be a concern for our area or is SNE the most south it would get, either way would not be good, some runs are showing a sub 950mb storm. Oh NVM I see him, wow thats a close call.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:46 pm

Only in 2020 would a hurricane from Bermuda take a NW to NNW track into NE or the canadian maratimes, thats a extremely unheard of track.
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Post by sroc4 on Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:22 am

2.7% chance Jon it even comes close.

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:49 pm

@sroc4 wrote:2.7% chance Jon it even comes close.
lol VERY precise percentage you got there, yeah I think it stays off any oand other than bermuda. Poor Loisiana they are looking at another hurricane same spot just after power has started to return. If GFS is correct.
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:11 pm

Teddy will only give us big waves thats it
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Post by amugs on Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:34 am

Tropics taking a hiatus for now and then once this Kelvin Wave makes it way out or east it will fire up the Caribbean and with teh deep reinforcing trough over the Midwest and the HP over Greenland region - east coast HAS to keep an eye on this et up.

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Post by mwilli on Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:33 am

good looking out mugs. btw several people are now asking me what's the outlook for winter? in a polite voice I only tell them I'm still on the tropic's but keeping a"side eye" on the carribean.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:02 pm

06z GFS has a strong hurricane into the bend of florida then rides the coast very similar to Isiais and places NY east in the wind but the rain is nor so displaced to the west, way far out and def not showing up each run, over 300 hrs away, lets see in 10 days.
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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:29 pm

Could some rain and winds out this as it morphs when it comes N

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 24 Gfs_ensemble_delta26l_1601877600_1877600__1_

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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:30 pm

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 24 174744_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

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Post by GreyBeard on Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:26 pm

I heard Delta could possibly be a Cat.2 when it makes landfall in the northern gulf. Seems like every hurricane this season has come ashore in the same general area. Those poor folks have to be battle scarred by now.

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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:31 pm

Delta is officially a hcane, Recon aborted a mission to fly into Delta from Gamma. Never heard that one before

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Oct 06, 2020 4:28 pm

Delta really took off today. Now a cat 4 with 120kt winds

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:30 pm

WOW, they cannot catch a break! Looks like we could see some remnant impacts,
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:30 pm

WOW, they cannot catch a break! Looks like we could see some remnant impacts,
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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:04 am

They are a magnet for Hcanes - Laura now Delta yikes!
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 24 Ejz-DyOU8AE7bBs?format=png&name=medium

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 24 Ejz-fMjVgAEW-CS?format=png&name=medium

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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:06 am

Surge

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 24 091036_peak_surge

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:49 pm

The Euro has nearly 4-6 inches rain up here coming from leftovers of Delta yikes.
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Post by dkodgis on Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:56 am

Look what fell in rain down there. 18 inches in 12 hours.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/10/hurricane-delta-drops-over-a-foot-of-rain-on-southwest-louisiana/
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:20 am

UMM 06z GFS FL and Tristate/New England, fantasy land but def falls in the time frame talked about. Thats one massive hybrid that heads up here. FL gets slammed.
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:44 am

ACE -Complimets of WxBell and  JD
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 24 Slide14(29)





Not parallel to the Number of Named storms - weak sauce overall - again some would have never cut it as trop storms being named if 20-25 years ago maybe 15. Definitely not anytime before this timeframe IMO.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 24 Slide15(28)



Major Landfall hcanes

12 tropical systems have made landfall on the Continental US

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 24 Screen_Shot_2020_08_26_at_8_56_48_AM(1)


Trop Systems named = 26

1 Tropical Depression

17 Tropical Storms

8 Hcanes- 3 of which were major

Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
Auxiliary list
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta
Epsilon (active)

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:13 am

It is unbelivable that we are about to have Zeta, and that louisiana may well see its THIRD strike from a hurricane in a 2 month period, I am pretty sure this has never happened anywhere on the US coast in a entire season let alone in a 2 month period. Just nuts, and long rage GFS isn't quitting well into Nov...
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Post by sroc4 on Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:24 am

@jmanley32 wrote:It is unbelivable that we are about to have Zeta, and that louisiana may well see its THIRD strike from a hurricane in a 2 month period, I am pretty sure this has never happened anywhere on the US coast in a entire season let alone in a 2 month period.  Just nuts, and long rage GFS isn't quitting well into Nov...

Good morning Jon and everyone.  Definitely not unprecedented.  Not by a long shot.  The first year that came to my mind right away was 2004 because my sister and my brother from another mother were directly affected by 3 of them down in Fla.  

As you can see it started with August 12th Bonnie came ashore as a Trop storm.  One day later on August 13th Charlie landfalled as a Cat 4 just north of my buddy in Ft Meyers Beach.  He lives right on the one of the canals.  He said that after the winds started to calm down he and his neighbors were using their jet skis to go through his neighborhood to check on everyone.  

Fast forward less than a month to Sept 5th where Frances Made landfall as a Cat 2 just north of where my sister lived.(West Palm Beach).  Hurricane Ivan made landfall as a Cat 3 on Sept 16th near the wester Fla pan handle/E Alabama boarder after ravaging the island of Grenada on Sept7th as it passed only a few miles south of the tiny island where I had friends living at the time.  The stories they have are crazy; esp in the aftermath as most structural buildings were compromised and the looting was incredible.  Next was Jeanne on Sept 26th as a Cat 3 again making landfall in the exact same spot just north of my sister who lived in west palm beach as Frances back on the 5th.  

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 24 2004_h12



Now you may be saying what is that on the southern tip of Fla "Ivan as a trop depression" in the map above.  Well Ivan was one crazy system.  If Ivan the hurricane was put into human form this is what he might look like:

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 24 Ivan10


If you actually look at the entire life of Ivan's energy after making a landfall as a Cat 3 as stated above you can see in the below map it weakened over land into a Trop depression(blue circles) as it climbed latitude, exited the EC near the Delmarva before then regaining Trop storm status(green circles) and going on a crazy drive against traffic on the gulf stream freeway, before once again weakening back down to Trop depression status(blue circles) right as it passes over the southern tip of Fla near Miami and re-enters the GOM.  Once back into the GOM it regains its Trop storm status(green circles) and headed for yet another landfall near the western LA boarder.  It weakened back to a Trop depression right before landfall however.    

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 24 2004_h13



The very next year in the 2005 Hurricane season

June 11th Arlene Trop storm
August 29th the infamous Katrina as a Cat 3
About a week later to add insult to injury Cindy landfalled just west of where Katrina did as a Cat 1
and July 10th Dennis as a Cat 3


Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 24 2005_h10


There are many more years where there are multiple landfalls not that far apart in both geography and time.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:20 pm

Wel I stand corrected, and yes loving the tropics season I recall Ivan being crazy but I forgot the actual trip he took. Crazy for sure. And yes scott I am aware of the color coding lol. GFS now showing a cat 2 with Zeta. Poor them either way, they have had no power more than they have had power, looks so far might hit east of the area the last two did but still.
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