April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Page 2 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by billg315 on Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:45 pm

Hail or sleet? Not sure.
April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 96f26010
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2993
Reputation : 162
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by essexcountypete on Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:09 pm

I'm guessing sleet. And blowing and drifting sleet at that.
essexcountypete
essexcountypete
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 469
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-12-09
Location : Bloomfield, NJ

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs on Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:19 pm

I have never seen snow at 45-47 degrees as I witnessed today 3x. Winds were howling today. A February/early March day today. Cold as icebtonight!!!!!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10738
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by dkodgis on Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:51 am

Flakes here too around 1:30 pm but of course no cover. The wind was blowing it sideways. Lasted about a half hour. A few more minutes here and there. Wind was bracing. Two trees down.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1172
Reputation : 93
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by billg315 on Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:09 am

@billg315 wrote:Hail or sleet? Not sure.
April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 96f26010

And the answer is: Graupel. Which is effectively a little bit of snow, a little bit of sleet, a little bit of hail and a little bit of rock and roll.

Also, one reporting station in Sussex County yesterday reported 0.7” of snow. Which in one April event brought them about my entire seasonal total. Neutral
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2993
Reputation : 162
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:17 pm

HIGH WIND WATCH just issued for much of the area with gusts up to 70 mph possible Monday.

Latest Euro:

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 28fd9810
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2648
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:20 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:HIGH WIND WATCH just issued for much of the area with gusts up to 70 mph possible Monday.

Latest Euro:

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 28fd9810
Damnit!! My computer had a fault and you beat me to it LOL, ya you do not often see a 70mph HWW, this system will be potent!  We need some excitement lol Soul how long do those winds stay over the area or is it a quick line or ST like that?

CTZ009-010-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-176>179-120900-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0001.200413T1000Z-200413T2200Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-
Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
412 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph
possible.

* WHERE...New York City and adjacent suburbs of New York and New
Jersey, and coastal southwest Connecticut west of the New Haven
area.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16443
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:24 pm

GFS has 850mb winds well over 100mph! Wow, so take 1/4 off that and you have 75mph. Sorry wind man is getting excited lol, had no idea there was go be a storm, and since theres not one iota of excitement to be had this will be interesting, doesnt usually play out but we will see.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16443
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:56 pm

It’s definitely going to rock ‘n roll for at least a few hours on Monday (late AM—afternoon). Check out Upton’s take in their latest forecast discussion... Shocked

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Could see some leading bands of WAA showers Sunday night ahead of the approaching storm, while S winds slowly increase and temps remain steady or slowly rise. Strongest winds expected late AM into the afternoon on Monday as an 85-90kt H9 LLJ develops. GFS/NAM MOS guidance winds at KJFK both show sustained winds over 40 kt by 18Z Mon, some of the highest ever seen there outside of tropical cyclones. Looking at wind gusts, model soundings show typical model biases in play, with the NAM too inverted over land and the GFS too well mixed. Split the difference via a 2:1 NAM/GFS blend, as the NAM shows a little more focused LLJ toward the coast, and modified temps/mixing heights using MOS guidance hourly temps. This yields wind gusts 65-70 mph at the coast, and as high as 60-65 mph inland, mainly the higher elevations and exposed areas such as along the Hudson River. Can not totally rule out isolated 75-80 mph gusts across Long Island and coastal SE CT.
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2648
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:49 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:It’s definitely going to rock ‘n roll for at least a few hours on Monday (late AM—afternoon). Check out Upton’s take in their latest forecast discussion... Shocked

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Could see some leading bands of WAA showers Sunday night ahead of the approaching storm, while S winds slowly increase and temps remain steady or slowly rise. Strongest winds expected late AM into the afternoon on Monday as an 85-90kt H9 LLJ develops. GFS/NAM MOS guidance winds at KJFK both show sustained winds over 40 kt by 18Z Mon, some of the highest ever seen there outside of tropical cyclones. Looking at wind gusts, model soundings show typical model biases in play, with the NAM too inverted over land and the GFS too well mixed. Split the difference via a 2:1 NAM/GFS blend, as the NAM shows a little more focused LLJ toward the coast, and modified temps/mixing heights using MOS guidance hourly temps. This yields wind gusts 65-70 mph at the coast, and as high as 60-65 mph inland, mainly the higher elevations and exposed areas such as along the Hudson River. Can not totally rule out isolated 75-80 mph gusts across Long Island and coastal SE CT.
Wow, on the part you highlighted but also on the last part where possible hurricane force wind gusts are possible. All you need is a few hours to cause a lot of problems. My gueess is a 6-8 hr period of high winds with the highest maybe lasting 3-4 hrs. I'll be taking a trip down to the water front hudson river, pretty sure I will be social distancing enough LOL, can almost assure you no one else will be there lol
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16443
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by dkodgis on Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:41 am

Today, the calm before the storm.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1172
Reputation : 93
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by frank 638 on Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:18 am

Happy Easter 🐣rabbit🐇 to all buona Pasqua I know this is going to be our normal Easter 🐣.we have to stay strong and positive we will get through this and have our lives back to normal please stay safe everyone and enjoy ur day

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2065
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 36
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by billg315 on Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:02 am

Interesting 72 hours of weather ahead. The storm system tomorrow will be accompanied by heavy rain, very strong sustained winds with damaging gusts, and then at some point probably a line or two of possibly severe thunderstorms.
Then as cold air sinks in over the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night, another disturbance swings by along the stalled front and we could see some light snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Some models even hint that just south of here across central-southern New Jersey the snow could be steady enough to accumulate on some surfaces.
Either way temperatures Wednesday morning should be almost 30-35 degrees colder than they will be late tomorrow morning.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2993
Reputation : 162
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:28 pm

Everybody have a good Easter as best we can make of it at least it's nice out. Tomorrow is gonna be crazy with possible 70mph gusts for a good portion of the day then severe storms with potential for more wind damage and possible tornadoes. Albeit we are in marginal territory I have seen bad storms happen still. As for what bill said I do not want the cod after 35 degrees lower would be 25 no thank you. And no snow!!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16443
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs on Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:47 pm

HAPPY EASTER EVERYONE!! Hope you all are safe and healthy!
JMAN - IF this comes to fruition this is going to rival some of SAndy's winds (NOT SAYING THIS IS SANDY!!)
April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 1586815200-AquZYFdvttI

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10738
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:04 pm

@amugs wrote:HAPPY EASTER EVERYONE!! Hope you all are safe and healthy!
JMAN - IF this comes to fruition this is going to rival some of SAndy's winds (NOT SAYING THIS IS SANDY!!)
April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 1586815200-AquZYFdvttI
Yeah we seen this before, lets see if it actually happens, of course its not Sandy.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16443
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:07 pm

Many HWW were converted to Wind advisory, some warnings have been issued but 50-60mph down by cape may 60 to 70. Should be uptons decision soon.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16443
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:12 pm

If 3KM is right winds start ramping up late tonight around 1am and last till about 6 or 7pm tomorrow, 850mb level winds around 80 to 100kts! I know that doesnt translate to surface but even half is over 65mph.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16443
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:09 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Many HWW were converted to Wind advisory, some warnings have been issued but 50-60mph down by cape may 60 to 70. Should be uptons decision soon.

You’ll be getting your High Wind Warning any minute now ;-)
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2648
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:18 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Many HWW were converted to Wind advisory, some warnings have been issued but 50-60mph down by cape may 60 to 70. Should be uptons decision soon.

You’ll be getting your High Wind Warning any minute now ;-)
I just noticed, when did you move? I was gonna ask you if you wanted to go thrill seeking at the hudson river, should be wild and as I said no one around LOL
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16443
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Sanchize06 on Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:20 pm

12z Euro, widespread 70-80mph wind gusts

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EVbBvWNWkAYnwiw?format=jpg&name=medium

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 942
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:23 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:12z Euro, widespread 70-80mph wind gusts

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EVbBvWNWkAYnwiw?format=jpg&name=medium
Holy crow, I am honestly taking the Euro with a grain, we will get high winds but the Euro nearly almost always overdoes it, is there something different this time that would suggest otherwise?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16443
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:25 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:12z Euro, widespread 70-80mph wind gusts

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EVbBvWNWkAYnwiw?format=jpg&name=medium
Huh, thats 010z Tuesday which is what 5am? I thought this was only a monday thing?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16443
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:28 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:12z Euro, widespread 70-80mph wind gusts

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EVbBvWNWkAYnwiw?format=jpg&name=medium

Tomorrow looks horrid. 1-2" of rain and 50+ mph wind gusts. Not buying into anything higher than 50-55 mph right now but even that is quite windy

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18955
Reputation : 293
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Sanchize06 on Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:28 pm

I think the Euro is probably too widespread with 75mph winds, probably more isolated for those gusts. Definitely all models support for 60-70 mph wind gusts though

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 942
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum