Re: April 2020 Observations and Discussion

by **Vinnydula** Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:24 pm

Nothing crazy going on here. It's a little windy and rain has stoped

by **phil155** Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:29 pm

Wind has come down a bit here (North Central NJ) but once the storms and or heavy rain begins again I have little doubt we will see them pick up in a big way

by **jmanley32** Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:38 pm

Is that it? Winds died off almost completely. 6 hrs early? Or is the worst coming as they just upped top gusts.

by **jmanley32** Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:43 pm

Vinnydula wrote:Nothing crazy going on here. It's a little windy and rain has stoped

I was just up there you kidding? Many power outages and the wind was ripping
It's a sudden lull now.

by **jmanley32** Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:44 pm

phil155 wrote:Wind has come down a bit here (North Central NJ) but once the storms and or heavy rain begins again I have little doubt we will see them pick up in a big way

yeah thinking the most intense winds come a bit later few hrs May be like 2 or 3.

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:45 pm

Worst on its way (outside of thunderstorms) with this clearing to the southwest; it’ll allow stronger gusts to mix down.

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Fcabba10

by **billg315** Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:49 pm

A little lull here between the front end of the storm and the evening frontal passage. As you can see from the radar the potentially severe storms (for which the Tornado Watch is issued through 6 pm) are moving in from PA and Maryland presently.

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 B2758310

by **jmanley32** Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:18 pm

Will the tornado watch be extended in the NYC area, its very close just to the other side of the hudson. Yeah its dead calm now, nothing like this morning, coned edison and police all over. My car almost got smashed by the top of a metal recycling can in a parking lot that gets really good gusts as its elevated and wide open. We will have to see what happens. I saw a car crushed by a tree and abour 11,000 without power right now. I expect that may go way up with the back end coming through.

by **jmanley32** Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:20 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Worst on its way (outside of thunderstorms) with this clearing to the southwest; it’ll allow stronger gusts to mix down.

Soul can you explain this map? what did you circle?

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:27 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Worst on its way (outside of thunderstorms) with this clearing to the southwest; it’ll allow stronger gusts to mix down.

Soul can you explain this map? what did you circle?

It’s a satellite image of an area of clearing the NWS pointed out as well. This “dry slot” moving to the northeast had reports of 70+ mph winds in DE & SNJ; a 76 mph wind was just recorded at a buoy just south of Islip (now under this clearing).

by **Vinnydula** Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:28 pm

Jman I only seen that winds got up to 23mph here. Maybe I'm missing something

by **jmanley32** Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:29 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Worst on its way (outside of thunderstorms) with this clearing to the southwest; it’ll allow stronger gusts to mix down.

Soul can you explain this map? what did you circle?

It’s a satellite image of an area of clearing the NWS pointed out as well. This “dry slot” moving to the northeast had reports of 70+ mph winds in DE & SNJ; a 76 mph wind was just recorded at a buoy just south of Islip (now under this clearing).

Well if its that far north then it didnt effect us here for sure, why would a clearing allow more wind? I thought you neede convection to bring the winds down. So that is the end of it after tha clearing or are you saying its after that clearing that we see stronger winds?

by **jmanley32** Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:35 pm

And just like that its howling again, lets see what happens if one of those severe lines gets over here.

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:48 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Worst on its way (outside of thunderstorms) with this clearing to the southwest; it’ll allow stronger gusts to mix down.

Soul can you explain this map? what did you circle?

It’s a satellite image of an area of clearing the NWS pointed out as well. This “dry slot” moving to the northeast had reports of 70+ mph winds in DE & SNJ; a 76 mph wind was just recorded at a buoy just south of Islip (now under this clearing).
Well if its that far north then it didnt effect us here for sure, why would a clearing allow more wind? I thought you neede convection to bring the winds down. So that is the end of it after tha clearing or are you saying its after that clearing that we see stronger winds?

Both. Strong winds will reach the surface via convection (i.e. a thunderstorm) or when mixing causes the air at the surface to warm to or higher than the air above it.

A wild bout of wind just ripped thru here in Long Island City, accompanied by a heavy downpour. We’ll have better “luck” for stronger gusts in this kinda convective nature. It ain’t over.

by **billg315** Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:02 pm

From the radar and futurecast models it looks like the most severe line of storms (now in MD and PA) should move through between 4 and 5 from west to east. That should be it for the night.
Here is a report from the South Jersey Shore:
“Monday’s strong storms that include heavy rain and winds that have gusted as high as 87 mph have dislodged part of the boardwalk in Wildwood as well as toppled trees and damaged buildings elsewhere along the Jersey Shore.”

by **jmanley32** Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:05 pm

billg315 wrote:From the radar and futurecast models it looks like the most severe line of storms (now in MD and PA) should move through between 4 and 5 from west to east. That should be it for the night.
Here is a report from the South Jersey Shore:
“Monday’s strong storms that include heavy rain and winds that have gusted as high as 87 mph have dislodged part of the boardwalk in Wildwood as well as toppled trees and damaged buildings elsewhere along the Jersey Shore.”

wow. Well can't call it a bust if there was a 87mph gust I'd say the winds were pretty high here mainly in morning though right before a burst rain we get a big gust. Yeah it should be over close to 6pm maybe bit later from NYC on east.

by **dkodgis** Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:10 pm

It just rained like nobody’s beeswax for five min. If it rained like that for an hr, I’d be under water

by **phil155** Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:25 pm

Here near exit 10 on the NJTPK luckily there is not much going on as of now but I know there are storms coming later and I just hope they do not result in power outages. Working from home and kids doing on line classes We need to have power

by **jmanley32** Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:23 pm

Well thats that, we can't say its a bust as I see there were some isolated gusts to or over 70mph but altogether was not as bad as it could have been. At the height Westchester county had only 15,000 outages which compared to the population isn't that widespread. I still had fun driving around, seeing Hudson river with waves, and best part got to get out with full social distancing for miles LOL

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:40 pm

2.04" of rain, not sure how much my rain gauge missed when it was blowing sideways! lol Had some pretty good winds here, a few trees down on wires earlier today, lots of branches. We'll see if the winds pick up again with the frontal passage.

by **dkodgis** Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:46 pm

Some rain at times heavy but not a lot of wind. However, really dark clouds out of south. Some last minute stuff I guess

by **amugs** Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:28 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:2.04" of rain, not sure how much my rain gauge missed when it was blowing sideways! lol Had some pretty good winds here, a few trees down on wires earlier today, lots of branches. We'll see if the winds pick up again with the frontal passage.

Zoo - measured 2.15" here LOL and the sideways wind driven rain helped keep down the totals.
I had some really good gusts up here low 40's

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:25 pm

amugs wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:2.04" of rain, not sure how much my rain gauge missed when it was blowing sideways! lol Had some pretty good winds here, a few trees down on wires earlier today, lots of branches. We'll see if the winds pick up again with the frontal passage.
Zoo - measured 2.15" here LOL and the sideways wind driven rain helped keep down the totals.
I had some really good gusts up here low 40's

Always trying to one-up me! haha I was debating on putting out one of my big coolers to measure the rain, figured it would catch more of the blowing rain, would have been a good experiment to see how much we lose with the rain gauges!

by **amugs** Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:39 pm

Zoo great idea for future storms

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:05 pm

Like I typically do this time of year I lock the long range thread and consolidate most discussion in these monthly threads.

Expect cooler than normal conditions to persist another two weeks. We are seeing high latitude blocking (-NAO) across the Atlantic and a +PNA. The MJO is active in phases that favor cooler weather.

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member

When it crashes to the center is the time we should expect to see a step-change to sustained warm up. I think the first week of May will be around normal, some days below, but by the time we get to the second week it should be noticeably warmer around here.

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