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Post by HectorO Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:50 pm

I think we're looking at the 01/12 - 03/20/21, time frame now.


Last edited by HectorO on Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:33 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:18 am

amugs wrote:Talk about bone chilling cold

Holy crow! Those people must walk around in shorts and tee shirts when it is 32 degrees out.

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Post by dkodgis Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:21 am

Doc, I would conk out with that kind of temperature. However as my Canadian friends would say, "Cold, eh?". They think our weather is "Florida weather" where 32 degrees gives them a thermal concussion. Almost time to put the pansies out in the flower boxes.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:57 am

Damian, it's all relative.
When I had my Dental Office, patients who moved to NJ from snow belt areas like Northern New England or Buffalo would be amazed that schools would close with 6 inches of snow.They said life went on as usual when they had over a foot.
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Post by GreyBeard Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:22 pm

Z


Last edited by GreyBeard on Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:45 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : repost)

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:31 am

^^^ Yes saw that one from Mom - great info!
How about Spain getting hammered:

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:22 am

Alabama this morning WOW

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Taffy Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:32 am

After living in NJ for 34 years, there are a few things I had forgotten about the weather in MA.

We get snow squalls that can last 5 minutes to a half hour, sometimes for days in a row .I enjoy them because they don't involve any heavy lifting. Right now, it's snowing and pretty hard. It came out of nowhere and wasn't in the forecast. I checked and it is scheduled to last another 2 hours. It's beautiful.

Just my musings on how a little over 200 miles can make a big difference in weather.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:35 pm

GFS looks great for Monday!!

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 31 Gfs_pr11







Wink

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:19 pm

LOL. I did a double-take there. I was like, "wait, I just looked at the GFS" Laughing
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:25 pm

billg315 wrote:LOL. I did a double-take there. I was like, "wait, I just looked at the GFS" Laughing


Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 31 7Kpp

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by dkodgis Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:02 am

Daylight savings time in eight weeks. Spring ahead. Meanwhile ¿Dónde está la nieve, baby?
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 17, 2021 9:06 am

Overnight forecast trend is disastrous for the Shore. From 34* to 39* for next Tuesday, melting away even the dreams of a big event (at least for the moment!). My fault for being such a weenie that I’m even looking that far ahead. Lol. More concerning at the moment really is that the temp crash now seems to start next weekend and not midweek.

The trend for this winter imo has been for good signals 7-10 days out only for hopes to be dashed before we reached the finish line. I guess the one exception was Jan 3-4 when the bad news was just a tad too late to crash the party for everyone. But the last several threats seemed to fall apart as soon as they hit the 7 day range.

So, it’s time for a quick trip to the fountain of weenie optimism!

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 17, 2021 10:40 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Overnight forecast trend is disastrous for the Shore. From 34* to 39* for next Tuesday, melting away even the dreams of a big event (at least for the moment!). My fault for being such a weenie that I’m even looking that far ahead. Lol. More concerning at the moment really is that the temp crash now seems to start next weekend and not midweek.

The trend for this winter imo has been for good signals 7-10 days out only for hopes to be dashed before we reached the finish line. I guess the one exception was Jan 3-4 when the bad news was just a tad too late to crash the party for everyone. But the last several threats seemed to fall apart as soon as they hit the 7 day range.

So, it’s time for a quick trip to the fountain of weenie optimism!

Hey Snowman.  Im not too sure about a fountain of weenie optimism, but you are more than welcome to come join me and a few others in the pool of cautious optimism.  

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 31 Glenwood-hot-springs-1111_0_0

If you'd like I can also arrange a short puddle jumper south to my other pool of cautious optimism which overlooks the sea of optimism while we wait to see if the long range prospects and potential come to fruition or not.  

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 31 Item-share


I created these two pools of cautious optimism years ago because I realized the weather and the long range modeling can be real fickle.  Its better for the soul and the agita to be distracted.

The water in these pools was magically made in the far reaches of the universe by magical gnomes such that water temperature is always perfect.  Oh and I almost forgot, not seen in the images but I assure you are there, are swim up bars in both facilities which serves you the beverage or adult beverage of your choice...whatever, whenever.  Hangovers are optional.

So come join me in either pool of cautious optimism because the water is always just right, the drinks are plentiful, and the music is always spot on for whatever your needs.  All are welcome!!

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 17, 2021 11:25 am

sroc4 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:Overnight forecast trend is disastrous for the Shore. From 34* to 39* for next Tuesday, melting away even the dreams of a big event (at least for the moment!). My fault for being such a weenie that I’m even looking that far ahead. Lol. More concerning at the moment really is that the temp crash now seems to start next weekend and not midweek.

The trend for this winter imo has been for good signals 7-10 days out only for hopes to be dashed before we reached the finish line. I guess the one exception was Jan 3-4 when the bad news was just a tad too late to crash the party for everyone. But the last several threats seemed to fall apart as soon as they hit the 7 day range.

So, it’s time for a quick trip to the fountain of weenie optimism!

Hey Snowman.  Im not too sure about a fountain of weenie optimism, but you are more than welcome to come join me and a few others in the pool of cautious optimism.  

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 31 Glenwood-hot-springs-1111_0_0

If you'd like I can also arrange a short puddle jumper south to my other pool of cautious optimism which overlooks the sea of optimism while we wait to see if the long range prospects and potential come to fruition or not.  

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 31 Item-share


I created these two pools of cautious optimism years ago because I realized the weather and the long range modeling can be real fickle.  Its better for the soul and the agita to be distracted.

The water in these pools was magically made in the far reaches of the universe by magical gnomes such that water temperature is always perfect.  Oh and I almost forgot, not seen in the images but I assure you are there, are swim up bars in both facilities which serves you the beverage or adult beverage of your choice...whatever, whenever.  Hangovers are optional.

So come join me in either pool of cautious optimism because the water is always just right, the drinks are plentiful, and the music is always spot on for whatever your needs.  All are welcome!!

I'll take a week in both!!! But seriously, I get your message loud n clear SROC!! Thumbs upThumbs up  

I had to look up agita. Full blown weenie-ism becomes an agita. Which leads to angina. Not good.

Going to the Hot Springs first!

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 17, 2021 2:47 pm

Amazing we have a PV split - not many if at all of the winter forecasts I read predicted tnis or even mentioned this- all said the PV is going to be strong, maybe stronger than last year. Negative NAO in Dec now almost all of Jan and a Negative AO as well and we have 8-11" area wide to show so far. Again not many called for this pattern indices to be such. Very interesting.
One thing is for sure, Europe, Japan and Asia (China and Russia) have been getting slammed as has Northern Africa and the Middle East.
Just not here .....so far!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Grselig Sun Jan 17, 2021 5:34 pm

amugs wrote:Amazing we have a PV split - not many if at all of the winter forecasts I read predicted tnis or even mentioned this- all said the PV is going to be strong, maybe stronger than last year. Negative NAO in Dec now almost all of Jan and a Negative AO as well and we have 8-11" area wide to show so far. Again not many called for this pattern indices to be such. Very interesting.
One thing is for sure, Europe, Japan and Asia (China and Russia) have been getting slammed as has Northern Africa and the Middle East.
Just not here .....so far!!

We gotta have hope. Anything is possible.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 18, 2021 6:29 am

amugs wrote:Amazing we have a PV split - not many if at all of the winter forecasts I read predicted tnis or even mentioned this- all said the PV is going to be strong, maybe stronger than last year. Negative NAO in Dec now almost all of Jan and a Negative AO as well and we have 8-11" area wide to show so far. Again not many called for this pattern indices to be such. Very interesting.
One thing is for sure, Europe, Japan and Asia (China and Russia) have been getting slammed as has Northern Africa and the Middle East.
Just not here .....so far!!

Mugsy, my wife skyped with her relatives in Rome and they report snow there, a place that rarely gets any.Just goes to show you that with even all the teleconnections favorable, Mother Nature does what she wants,LOL.The scourge of winter in this area this week, cold and dry.My observation is that since early November, the pattern has been sending all the snow to the midwest, north and central areas while we get the warm side.The December snowstorm was an exception.
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Post by TheAresian Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:57 am

It doesn't say much for our long term prospects when the long range discussion thread goes 24 hours without a single post. I know that better days will come eventually, but it's an ugly wait.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 19, 2021 5:23 pm

I believe the GFS Para has this all figured out next week.  NOT!

The GFS is just lost on this evolution next week.  Completely lost.

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 31 Para10

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Post by Bkdude Wed Jan 20, 2021 7:13 pm

This winter is turning out to be a dud.

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Post by dkodgis Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:55 am

Yesterday morning I was heading to Atlantic City and by the time I hit Rockland County, then the GSP all the way to about 100 mile marker, it was snowing. In the middle, and toward the end, the snow was heavy enough we were going 40 mph and the GPS was coated. It crossed my mind to turn back and bag it but it stopped. It was nice to see and it has been a while being caught in unexpected snow while driving. The first thing was great; the second thing, not so much.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:04 am

Hi all so poor Eli has started her chemotherapy for what will be a hellish 6-12 months as per her father as one or both of them will have to go part time or give up their career (both very successful people), of course I would do the same but it will not be easy. Eli was not progged correctly and instead of being stage one and having done the surgery unecessarily (this we do not understand, how could such a place like sloan make such a mistake?) she is actually stage 3. However the only good news is it has not metastacized. My daughter saw her the other day she is doing okay but after one treatment it is already starting to show signs of taking a toll, wobbly walking etc. I hope she can come out of this okay but we are all worried. I bought her a paired lavender unicorn friends so each of them take one, so cute i could believe it when I found it as unicorns are her favorite thing and even better it came as a pair with arms intertwined but removable by velcro. She loved it. God willing I may have ajob incoming so pray for me on that too.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:06 am

Bkdude wrote:This winter is turning out to be a dud.
Heh and its right in your username, I concur.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 22, 2021 6:11 am

jmanley32 wrote:Hi all so poor Eli has started her chemotherapy for what will be a hellish 6-12 months as per her father as one or both of them will have to go part time or give up their career (both very successful people), of course I would do the same but it will not be easy. Eli was not progged correctly and instead of being stage one and having done the surgery unecessarily  (this we do not understand, how could such a place like sloan make such a mistake?) she is actually stage 3. However the only good news is it has not metastacized.  My daughter saw her the other day she is doing okay but after one treatment it is already starting to show signs of taking a toll, wobbly walking etc.  I hope she can come out of this okay but we are all worried.  I bought her a paired lavender unicorn friends so each of them take one, so cute i could believe it when I found it as unicorns are her favorite thing and even better it came as a pair with arms intertwined but removable by velcro.   She loved it.  God willing I may have  ajob incoming so pray for me on that too.

Very disappointing to hear Sloan misdiagnosed Ellie, they are supposed to be the best.I have seen this fight against cancer my entire life and am amazed in this day of super computers and electron microscopes, a cure has not been found.That being said, prayers for little Ellie and her family as well as you to get a good job.
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Post by Grselig Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:48 am

Cold morning but not bad now at 32. So the RB is definitely tilting negative. Bad sign. Hoping its wrong. Hmm. I can't accept any form of rioting or violence on the political front. Love our free speech, but violence draws the line. However, when it comes to snow, my patience is much more open to any avenue possible to achieve desired, very narrow goals of the White Gold. Very Happy Actually RB, always appreciate and read your honest point of view. Thank you for posting!!!!! What's the point of forecasting if its not designed for accuracy. Uniform opinions without healthy discussion 100% of the time end up resulting in very bad decisions.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:24 am

docstox12 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Hi all so poor Eli has started her chemotherapy for what will be a hellish 6-12 months as per her father as one or both of them will have to go part time or give up their career (both very successful people), of course I would do the same but it will not be easy. Eli was not progged correctly and instead of being stage one and having done the surgery unecessarily  (this we do not understand, how could such a place like sloan make such a mistake?) she is actually stage 3. However the only good news is it has not metastacized.  My daughter saw her the other day she is doing okay but after one treatment it is already starting to show signs of taking a toll, wobbly walking etc.  I hope she can come out of this okay but we are all worried.  I bought her a paired lavender unicorn friends so each of them take one, so cute i could believe it when I found it as unicorns are her favorite thing and even better it came as a pair with arms intertwined but removable by velcro.   She loved it.  God willing I may have  ajob incoming so pray for me on that too.

Very disappointing to hear Sloan misdiagnosed Ellie, they are supposed to be the best.I have seen this fight against cancer my entire life and am amazed in this day of super computers and electron microscopes, a cure has not been found.That being said, prayers for little Ellie and her family as well as you to get a good job.
I'm honestly not sure if it was a misdiagnosis or what but the figured out that it did not originate in her uterus and that they should have started chemo right away. I think the issue may have come from the first place she was which was a children's hospital in I believe Hawthorne or somewhere Westchester. They said they had been overly optimistic with the info they had but they were not provided correct info. That wasn't elaborated on.
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