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August 2020 Observations and Discussion

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Post by amugs on Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:56 pm

Severe weather possible TUESDAY up here and remnants of Laura poassible for the weekend.

Severe by RGEM
August 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh30-48.thumb.gif.08b45520c812f7679a828852bbc4aebb

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Post by amugs on Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:02 am

Remnants Saturday??
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020082318/gfs_ref_frzn_neus_24.pngAugust 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Gfs_ref_frzn_neus_24

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:15 pm

@amugs wrote:Severe weather possible TUESDAY up here and remnants of Laura poassible for the weekend.

Severe by RGEM
August 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh30-48.thumb.gif.08b45520c812f7679a828852bbc4aebb
No image, maybe try clearing your cookies as you said a while back your image is stuck on a old radar.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:16 pm

@amugs wrote:Remnants Saturday??
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020082318/gfs_ref_frzn_neus_24.pngAugust 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Gfs_ref_frzn_neus_24
Euro has 982mb Low off south LI from remnants of Laura, could be a breezt wet weekend, blah.
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Post by billg315 on Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:06 pm

Hot and humid, per usual. 89* here with a dewpoint of 70*. Storms starting to fire up out in Central PA. Central and South NJ has an enhanced risk of severe storms (slight risk in the North Jersey/NYC metro) later this afternoon and evening. Could see the temp drop about 10-15 degrees as the line comes through. Keep your eye to the skies. Most likely timing between 4 and 8 p.m.
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Post by amugs on Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:47 pm

Lines in upstate NY and NW Pa
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=okx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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Post by dkodgis on Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:56 pm

Yep. Hellzapoppin’ here
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Post by docstox12 on Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:06 pm

T Storm here in Fort Lee NJ, heavy winds and rain, thunder.
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Post by 1190ftalt on Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:23 pm

Big storm just rolled thru Ft Lee, from 24th floor, the next one is coming, this looking west to Teterboro Airport! Mid town Manhattan coming to you !August 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 49f1cb10
August 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 F7deb410
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Post by dkodgis on Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:58 pm

It got dark quick, got way windy, and started to rain then stopped. This went on three times. We missed any heavy rain up heree


Last edited by dkodgis on Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:16 pm

SPC wrong again, had Central and Southern NJ in the enhanced risk and we got nothing down the shore....

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:54 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:SPC wrong again, had Central and Southern NJ in the enhanced risk and we got nothing down the shore....
Yep not one drop and I still have severe exaggerating and nothing on radar
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:16 pm

SPC has upped our area to enhanced severe tomorrow with a tornado and damaging wind risk, dunzoo as you say when they do this its usually the KOD but lets see what happens. Yesterdays t-storm here was boring and lasted 5 min.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:10 pm

I know we all focused on Laura but the severe potential tomorrow looks pretty severe saying potential for winds over 60mph and 2 inch hail.
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Post by dkodgis on Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:37 pm

A beautiful day today!
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 27, 2020 8:39 am

Well let's see if today's enhanced significant severe threat pans out. It's unusual for our area to also be under significant severe. The discussion says wins potentially greater than 60mph and hail up to 2 inches. I have never seen anything other than pea hail but I really don't want my car totaled.
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Post by amugs on Thu Aug 27, 2020 9:39 am

August 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Image.png.90627451129e3e195a50ca5abf15d288

Close Up
August 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 EgbjW0RXkAE1W1f?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:09 pm

@amugs wrote:August 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Image.png.90627451129e3e195a50ca5abf15d288

Close Up
August 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 EgbjW0RXkAE1W1f?format=jpg&name=medium
holy crap tornado warnings and severe tstorm warning for 70mph winds and 2 inch hail in central NY. My god that's unusual. And dangerous.
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Post by essexcountypete on Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:35 pm

Crazy gusts for the last hour or so. Batten down the hatches.
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:00 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:Crazy gusts for the last hour or so. Batten down the hatches.
yeah the fact that winds have been gusty far ahead of any storms is not good. Apparently there is a touchdown of a tornado in Litchfield CT. If so that be their 4th tornado this year within past month which has to be a record. 1 is uncommon.
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:22 pm

Tornado watch now for long Island and Westchester. There's a serious storm been prompt tornado warnings for a hour moving into CT. The parameters for sever weather are abnormally unstable. Shear is above 50kts. That's like Midwest type shear. And stp of 10 I never seen it that high. Cape is moderately high too.
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Post by amugs on Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:23 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Tornado watch now for long Island and Westchester. There's a serious storm been prompt tornado warnings for a hour moving into CT. The parameters for sever weather are abnormally unstable. Shear is above 50kts. That's like Midwest type shear. And stp of 10 I never seen it that high. Cape is moderately high too.

August 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 20200824

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Post by essexcountypete on Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:26 pm

That line stretches way back into NYS and beyond, and it's scary looking.
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:45 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:That line stretches way back into NYS and beyond, and it's scary looking.
and cells keep adding to it. If it holds together it's go get nasty. And they are moving in more of a training se so it could last quite a while.
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 27, 2020 4:08 pm

Is it just me or does that bowing line coming off the lakes look like it has the potential to form a derecho? Thats going to take forever to get down here though and will likely die out unless it has insane power.
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