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Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

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Post by algae888 Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 E399e210

I’m not particularly excited for snow prospects just yet, but at least it’s looking cold to start December
Yes it's finally looking like we have an interesting December coming up after many many years of warm and snowless December. We'll probably have to wait till the second week of December for any snow chances as Canada will be very warm as well much of the u.s. the Alaskan low / Vortex looks to retrograde West and the EPO looks to go at least neutral which should start to deliver some cold into the east and with a more Nino like pattern the subtropical jet will be active so we just have to time one of these short waves. Also of interest is the mjo which for the next month looks to stay in 1 and 2 and I'm hearing from many Mets and other weather enthusiasts that it will stay in the Indian Ocean this winter and not the maritime continent which is phases. 4 5 and 6 we shall see but much different setup than last year
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:45 pm

@Irish wrote:So what does this all mean?

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1331260807599050754?s=20

It echoes what I said yesterday. Pattern will behave more like El Niño than La Niña to start December. Don’t bank on that lasting very long.

@amugs wrote:Okay, IF we can get the Ural Block to stay put for a bit it MAY help with a warming of teh Stratosphere and knock around the Polar Vortex - Just a hunch and idea I have read before and elsewhere. Look at the PNA ridge POP and the Trough swing under the  CANADIAN Block that forms.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1606176000-1606543200-1607472000-10

There will be some disruption, but the SPV will re-emerge even stronger

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:48 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 E399e210

I’m not particularly excited for snow prospects just yet, but at least it’s looking cold to start December
Yes it's finally looking like we have an interesting December coming up after many many years of warm and snowless December. We'll probably have to wait till the second week of December for any snow chances as Canada will be very warm as well much of the u.s. the Alaskan low / Vortex looks to retrograde West and  the EPO looks to go at least neutral which should start to deliver some cold into the east and with a more Nino like pattern the subtropical jet will be active so we just have to time one of these short waves. Also of interest is the mjo which for the next month looks to stay in 1 and 2 and I'm hearing from many Mets and other weather enthusiasts that it will stay in the Indian Ocean this winter and not the maritime continent which is phases. 4 5 and 6 we shall see but much different setup than last year

MJO will be a wild card for sure.

I’m not sure what to make of it. Central/eastern La Niña forcing or MJO activity? Who will win out?

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:51 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Irish wrote:So what does this all mean?

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1331260807599050754?s=20

It echoes what I said yesterday. Pattern will behave more like El Niño than La Niña to start December. Don’t bank on that lasting very long.

@amugs wrote:Okay, IF we can get the Ural Block to stay put for a bit it MAY help with a warming of teh Stratosphere and knock around the Polar Vortex - Just a hunch and idea I have read before and elsewhere. Look at the PNA ridge POP and the Trough swing under the  CANADIAN Block that forms.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1606176000-1606543200-1607472000-10

There will be some disruption, but the SPV will re-emerge even stronger

Frank it will be seen what happens with the SPV, if we can get the warming with the heights over the top it may hold it off for a bit longer.
I said this to a friend if we notice the pattern observations since Julyish and as of late it is 20-25 days pattern then a flip for a about teh same time then a revert back. Fun times ahead figuring our what the models and what is happening .

From Ventrice to my point above
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1331263867259850757?s=20

So what does this chart mean?? With Solar affects on our planet talk about LR and SLR !!
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 EnjNw4YUYAAoScm?format=png&name=small
It means the influx of solar irradiance and cosmic rays on our planet are increasing by a good amount which means that we will have and see more cloudy days overall on the planet and more precipitable days in certain regions. This also increases the likelihood of hail storms and increasing their severity.  It also and lastly (not really) affects the jet structure to make it more wavy not zonal. It does have affects on physiological and psychological aspects of us humans.

Massive Sunspot and its flaring coming to face earth in the next 2 -3 days - watch for an uptick in Puffers (volcanoes) and Rockers (earthquakes). Could also have communication disruptions depending of its level.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Update_nov24

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Post by frank 638 Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:00 pm

Hey all I hope everyone is doing good tonight on channel 4 Janice and her weather team is having their winter outlook starting at 6 and 11 hopefully it’s a good one

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:35 pm

Wow- omega block

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Enn1x98W4AIk7J-?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by Irish Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:44 pm

@amugs wrote:Wow- omega block

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Enn1x98W4AIk7J-?format=jpg&name=medium

If that were to happen, would that be a Nor'easter?

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:41 pm

@frank 638 wrote:Hey all I hope everyone is doing good tonight on channel 4 Janice and her weather team is having their winter outlook starting at 6 and 11 hopefully it’s a good one

Let us know what she says

@Irish wrote:
@amugs wrote:Wow- omega block

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Enn1x98W4AIk7J-?format=jpg&name=medium

If that were to happen, would that be a Nor'easter?

Maybe for North Carolina...

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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:49 pm

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Adc65610


Just drinking vino and being stupid.

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Post by dkodgis Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:59 pm

Scott: good man!
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:30 pm

Janice Huff's take:

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/weather/less-snow-not-as-cold-storm-team-4s-2020-2021-winter-outlook/2743751/

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Post by frank 638 Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:58 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Janice Huff's take:

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/weather/less-snow-not-as-cold-storm-team-4s-2020-2021-winter-outlook/2743751/
i was watching her and it’s not good news for us snow lovers

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:01 pm

Here's for reference between the Nina regime - East vs West

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 EnoD_yBXcAEhuBx?format=jpg&name=medium

Looks to be a tad east based
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

Colder pockets more east developing - but it is a more volatile region for swings
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1

3.4 Moderate Nina for sure
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Nino34

1.2
about equal to 3.4
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Nino12

Cold pocket pushing a bit east as well
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Wkxzteq_anm

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:16 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Adc65610


Just drinking vino and being stupid.

Pinot? Cab? I had the La Crema pinot tonight

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:18 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Janice Huff's take:

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/weather/less-snow-not-as-cold-storm-team-4s-2020-2021-winter-outlook/2743751/

Meh, boring!

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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:41 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Adc65610


Just drinking vino and being stupid.

Why do I feel like this is some of CP’s OTI rubbing off on you? Ahaha I’m freakin’ DEAD man, this is hilarious lmfaoooo

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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:49 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Frank, always good to see you back at your rightful helm!! However, I am going to continue to respectfully disagree, though I will not be able to go into detail until probably Thanksgiving. That said, I’ve made some of my basic points already, but fully intend to tie them together with respect to the maps.

Hi rb! Hope you are well.

Curious, which part of my post are you disagreeing with? The short-term pattern evolution into early December or the long range overall winter prospects? Or both!

I like your overall winter aspects quite a bit, actually; I strongly agree an overall mild and snow-starved winter for us here is most likely, if I had to forecast, would go with that. However, it is with your medium and extended ranges (next couple of weeks) that I find myself in (respectful) disagreement. Unfortunately, I do not have the time this evening to sit down a write up my discussion, but as I said the other day, I fully intend to take the time to sit down and link a few of my recent posts together into a more coherent dissertation as to why I truly believe this pattern is going to disappoint. That discussion will very likely come sometime on Thursday, so hopefully it’ll make for some good pre-bedtime reading after all of the food haha bit of a tease here, but you’ve gotta follow your ridging and think about what it means at the surface Wink that’s all I will offer right now, but again, am already mentally constructing my write-up for Thursday 😁

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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:39 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Adc65610


Just drinking vino and being stupid.

Pinot? Cab? I had the La Crema pinot tonight

It was a Pinot Noir Frank. Meiomi. It’s one of my favorites and reasonably priced. I have a couple of bottles of more expensive Cabs set aside for Thursday. (Joseph Phelps & Stags Leap).  

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 2db8b910

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by HectorO Wed Nov 25, 2020 7:08 am

Shouldn't wine talk be in the Banter thread...? Wink
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:44 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Frank, always good to see you back at your rightful helm!! However, I am going to continue to respectfully disagree, though I will not be able to go into detail until probably Thanksgiving. That said, I’ve made some of my basic points already, but fully intend to tie them together with respect to the maps.

Hi rb! Hope you are well.

Curious, which part of my post are you disagreeing with? The short-term pattern evolution into early December or the long range overall winter prospects? Or both!

I like your overall winter aspects quite a bit, actually; I strongly agree an overall mild and snow-starved winter for us here is most likely, if I had to forecast, would go with that. However, it is with your medium and extended ranges (next couple of weeks) that I find myself in (respectful) disagreement. Unfortunately, I do not have the time this evening to sit down a write up my discussion, but as I said the other day, I fully intend to take the time to sit down and link a few of my recent posts together into a more coherent dissertation as to why I truly believe this pattern is going to disappoint. That discussion will very likely come sometime on Thursday, so hopefully it’ll make for some good pre-bedtime reading after all of the food haha bit of a tease here, but you’ve gotta follow your  ridging and think about what it means at the surface Wink that’s all I will offer right now, but again, am already mentally constructing my write-up for Thursday 😁

Looking forward to it!

I went back and read my post, and the only thing I’m truly confident in is the pattern flipping to start out the new month. To be clear, I’m not forecasting snow but merely pointing out it is a possibility with the cold air accompanying the pattern change. As of this morning, guidance is still insisting on a +PNA/+EPO developing.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 1097b710

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:45 am

@HectorO wrote:Shouldn't wine talk be in the Banter thread...? Wink

Yes, all alcoholics to the banter thread!

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:08 pm

This is a strong block for sure wowza, PNA is on roads.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 20201110


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Post by algae888 Thu Nov 26, 2020 9:58 am

Morning and Happy Thanksgiving to all a lot of interesting stuff today with regards to the upcoming pattern for December and onwards. It hasn't looked this good for years now and obviously it's still has to verify but there is growing consensus on all guidance of a very favorable pattern change for snow and cold lovers here in the east. Positive PNA signs of a negative AO and negative Nao showing up on guidance through the first half of December. Haven't seen that trifecta in a while which should bring wintry storm chances to our area through the first half of December. Mjo extremely interesting.  the Euro basically had it in The Circle of Death for the next month the GFS wants to bring it into 4 5 and 6 today's GFS has it missing 4 heading into 5. The significance of this is if the GFS is correct it will probably cause an Aleutian High Poleward which should disrupt the polar vortex and weaken it as we head towards January as you know it's extremely strong right now also the wave should continue and head through 7/8 and 1 by the time we get to January which could promote very cold and stormy January we'll see how this involves. Also about the polar vortex numerous Mets this morning have stated that long range CVS2 guidance suggest a rapid  weakening of the polar vortex late December which would also promote a colder January. If everything holds many Winter forecast will be in jeopardy and this moderate to Strong nina will behave nothing like it interesting times ahead.

James Peacock
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(1/2) This surprisingly strong +EAMT has raised my eyebrows for other reasons too: It could set in motion a series of events that perturb the #PolarVortex in the stratosphere, raising potential for a dramatic weakening event (sudden stratospheric warming) some 4-6 weeks from now.


Matt Hugo
@MattHugo81
Plenty of interesting 'goings on': The +EAMT doing its 'thing' now, note the spike in AAM tendancy this likely to be aided by the MJO moving into phases 4-5-6 looking ahead. Decent wave 2 'attack' on the strat as well still forecast. All places emphasis on more blocked patterns.


Simon Lee
@SimonLeeWx
Some continuing suggestions from extended-range models of a weakening trend in the stratospheric vortex mid-December. Today's CFSv2 has 3 members going for a major SSW in January, but more importantly a below-average mean. Eagerly awaiting tonight's ECMWF extended-range!
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Post by algae888 Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:08 am

Forgot to add in the discussion about the EPO

Eric Webb
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Already starting to see hints of the aforementioned potential -EPO on the GEFS & EPS as we near mid-Dec. Highly amplified planetary waves like this, esp when they're over the N Pacific, where the jet stream is zonal asymmetric, love to retrograde westward (planetary vort adv).
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Classic positive E Asia Mtn Torque (+EAMT) being shown here as a cold sfc high descends into China. +EAMT signals strong/extensive N Pac jet & enhanced W Pac convection in early Dec >> NINO-ish pattern in N America, perhaps eventually morphing to -EPO (as @antmasiello alluded to)
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:13 am

Thanks Al for posting those

People in the weather works are getting excited about December’s pattern. I am too! But not sold on any significant snow just yet

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Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
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Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

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