NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Page 1 of 11 1, 2, 3 ... 9, 10, 11  Next

Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo Tue Dec 01, 2020 12:50 pm

Ready? GO!

Got a report of sleet in Waldwick around 12:30 pm. 50* here now, a few dark clouds passing by.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4365
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by billg315 Tue Dec 01, 2020 12:55 pm

Gloomy, cloudy and much chillier than yesterday. 45*
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3624
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:21 pm

Just had sleet and hail shower for about 3-4 minutes and temp dropped 4* in that - winter is ready to push in?

HAPPY METEROLOGICAL WINTER EVERYBODY!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12124
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Grselig Tue Dec 01, 2020 2:09 pm

@amugs wrote:Just had sleet and hail shower for about 3-4 minutes and temp dropped 4* in that - winter is ready to push in?

HAPPY METEROLOGICAL WINTER EVERYBODY!

Yes! I was driving on Route 23-Wayne. Its time for WINTER. We all need it after this year.
Grselig
Grselig
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1328
Reputation : 137
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 51
Location : Wayne NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by frank 638 Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:44 pm

Happy meteorological winter Let’s see what will dec bring and will we have a white Christmas or snow ⛄ on the ground what u guys think

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2304
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by mwilli Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:57 pm

I looked at the gfs model(long range)looks like a big winter storm 12/15...we'll see

mwilli

Posts : 132
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2019-02-11

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:51 pm

from BAMWx
The new GEFS is starting to see a *potential* sudden stratospheric warming event within the next 10 days. As the North Pacific pattern starts to feature some blocking (-EPO) its going to doing some serious work on the #PolarVortex. This is something to watch closely. #natgas


December 2020 Observations and Discussion EoK-OdRWEAQ2_Lx?format=jpg&name=small

This woudl squeeze the PV and elongate it dropping some cold into the USA as depicted by the above maps. Time will tell for sure but interesting and some good news before the Nina state takes over.


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12124
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:40 am

Regarding Saturday's storm. The ULL is passing close to our region. Probably will slide just SE of the region. If there was a good antecedent air mass, I'd be pretty excited about the prospects of some snow. But with the air mass being relatively mild and how close it passes to our region I don't think it's going to amount to much. Expect for higher elevations of Poconos, Catskills, Berkshires, Green Mountains, etc. where 6"+ is possible.

I know the latest 06Z Euro has a lot of snow for the NW folks, but that is assuming this storm is really wound up and dynamically cools the column. Most other guidance just doesn't support it.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Grselig Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:19 am

Nice. Im outside working out and we’ve got flurries. Yeah winter is already on the ledge of survival, but great way to start the day!
Grselig
Grselig
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1328
Reputation : 137
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 51
Location : Wayne NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:33 am

@heehaw453 wrote:Regarding Saturday's storm.  The ULL is passing close to our region.  Probably will slide just SE of the region.  If there was a good antecedent air mass, I'd be pretty excited about the prospects of some snow.  But with the air mass being relatively mild and how close it passes to our region I don't think it's going to amount to much.  Expect for higher elevations of Poconos, Catskills, Berkshires, Green Mountains, etc. where 6"+ is possible.

I know the latest 06Z Euro has a lot of snow for the NW folks, but that is assuming this storm is really wound up and dynamically cools the column.  Most other guidance just doesn't support it.

I hear ya Heehaw.  Not sure just how far down towards the coastal plain snow can make it for those exact reasons, but Ive been watching the euro/GFS and now NAM is coming into range regarding the timing and positioning of the southern piece and the northern piece.  NAM and Euro have the southern piece just out ahead of the northern vort max which is critical, vs GFS has the Northern vort weaker and scoot out of the way before the southern energy therefore the warm surge is allowed to happen.  There is a decent set up with confluence along the coast.  I may try to throw together some images and a write up to highlight some of these things.


Last edited by sroc4 on Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:50 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6863
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:49 am

If it phases like the NAM and Euro show the ability to generate its cold air will be there. Its intriguing as we are now within a few days.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6863
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:16 am

@sroc4 wrote: If it phases like the NAM and Euro show the ability to generate its cold air will be there.  Its intriguing as we are now within a few days.  

The path is there for snow and I'm with you on the intrigue. I'd like to see the ULL about 75 more SE, get a capture just below our latitude and you'd get a CCB which would offset even >= 34 surface temperatures. I just see it as too much has to go right ATTM.

I like the Berkshires and Green Mountains for this one. But Mother Nature will do what she does, so let's see!

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

sroc4 likes this post

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:49 am

I can definitely see N&W getting their first snow of the season on Saturday. Not sure about accumulations, but at least some flakes.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:56 am

Jesus H about 4-6 hours earlier and we'd be snowing decently!! Atmospheric set up is good, just not enough cold air- that High Pressure is in a good spot but needs be stronger for us to snow along the coast by about 10-15 mb IMO - time will tell.
December 2020 Observations and Discussion EoPiRGYW4AA9T7T?format=jpg&name=large

NAM says hello!!

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Nam-218-all-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1606910400-1607137200-1607212800-40

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12124
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:00 pm

GFS says swing and a miss on the snow total rainmaker
December 2020 Observations and Discussion Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12124
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:04 pm

Difference is how the northern stream interacts with the Southern energy - usually the case
EURO shows they dance = phase
December 2020 Observations and Discussion EoPCkI2XUAAiSsH?format=png&name=medium

Gfs holds the energy back a bot and the Northern stream is out ahead of this energy so it misses the phase - possible for sure but time will tell over the next 24 hours of runs

December 2020 Observations and Discussion EoPCmDYW4AA4QfP?format=png&name=medium


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12124
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 02, 2020 1:18 pm

As per usual the GFS and Euro are light years away from one another even under 3days time frame at 500mb. 12z Euro is a comjplete phase with even me seeing some snow on LI most likely. NAM and CMC are similar in evolution at H5 to euro with subtle differences vs GFS on its own with no phase at all

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6863
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 02, 2020 1:23 pm

12Z Op Euro shifted east a bit.  Stacks the lows vertically and develops a potent storm.  Again if we had a good antecedent air mass to work with I'd really be into this.  We don't have surface or mid level coldness.  Surface temperatures on Euro are > 36 during the storm.  So to Frank's point, snow may fall especially NW, but probably won't accumulate much.

Nonetheless this is what is projects.

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Euro21

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 02, 2020 2:06 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:12Z Op Euro shifted east a bit.  Stacks the lows vertically and develops a potent storm.  Again if we had a good antecedent air mass to work with I'd really be into this.  We don't have surface or mid level coldness.  Surface temperatures on Euro are > 36 during the storm.  So to Frank's point, snow may fall especially NW, but probably won't accumulate much.

Nonetheless this is what is projects.

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Euro21

I do my best not to look at temp profiles when H5 is still evolving, but you're right. 850 crashes nicely but surface through 925 are problems throughout the storm for many. If this were mid Jan man oh man, but that warmth ahead of this system will kill us. So close yet so far. The CCB crushes LI (IMBY) lol Look at that QPF

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Qpf10

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6863
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by brownie Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:54 pm

I had some big snowflakes here early this morning.  Not enough to stick, but it was nice to see.  I could really use some snow right now.  Any snow. I’d even settle for a dusting.

brownie

Posts : 243
Reputation : 17
Join date : 2013-11-10
Location : Parsippany, NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:57 pm

For everyone's enjoyment
December 2020 Observations and Discussion Resize10

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12124
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:16 pm

@amugs wrote:For everyone's enjoyment
December 2020 Observations and Discussion Resize10

NAM absolutely crashed the column due to dynamic cooling even at the 925's. That would probably accumulate as depicted where the CCB sets up. At least it's something to track early in the season.

If it bombs/slows down you can never rule out surprises. As long as the ULL is far enough under the area there can be no certainty w.r.t. snowfall.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:37 pm

ULL passes south of LI with No Phase = No Chance
ULL passes south of LI with Phase =

December 2020 Observations and Discussion SjZCqB1r0PwFdsV4iHuFl6IZoKWi1FxYlVwLivR6-fdC-kKF3GRSAYKHiqT3bj_aRAorrGkwmXd9RRPg8DwTUWRTo9gKunubm8iizl1e8_xEpwh5Fu7RfHIYtqyjXGGUkWcN5xSYY0DF4O0NtNOz27YYg1pv2KuAPrk

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6863
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:43 pm

I had no idea snow was even possible at all with this haven't been follow. Not that anyone cares but this storm looks like it could bring some intense wind too.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17938
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:44 pm

@sroc4 wrote:ULL passes south of LI with No Phase = No Chance
ULL passes south of LI with Phase =

December 2020 Observations and Discussion SjZCqB1r0PwFdsV4iHuFl6IZoKWi1FxYlVwLivR6-fdC-kKF3GRSAYKHiqT3bj_aRAorrGkwmXd9RRPg8DwTUWRTo9gKunubm8iizl1e8_xEpwh5Fu7RfHIYtqyjXGGUkWcN5xSYY0DF4O0NtNOz27YYg1pv2KuAPrk
lol love that scene she said 1:1000000 so ya I guess that's pur chances lol. Prolly better than that.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17938
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

sroc4 likes this post

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 11 1, 2, 3 ... 9, 10, 11  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum