December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Ready? GO!

Got a report of sleet in Waldwick around 12:30 pm. 50* here now, a few dark clouds passing by.

Gloomy, cloudy and much chillier than yesterday. 45*

Just had sleet and hail shower for about 3-4 minutes and temp dropped 4* in that - winter is ready to push in?

HAPPY METEROLOGICAL WINTER EVERYBODY!

amugs wrote:Just had sleet and hail shower for about 3-4 minutes and temp dropped 4* in that - winter is ready to push in?

HAPPY METEROLOGICAL WINTER EVERYBODY!

Yes! I was driving on Route 23-Wayne. Its time for WINTER. We all need it after this year.

Happy meteorological winter Let’s see what will dec bring and will we have a white Christmas or snow on the ground what u guys think

I looked at the gfs model(long range)looks like a big winter storm 12/15...we'll see

from BAMWx
The new GEFS is starting to see a *potential* sudden stratospheric warming event within the next 10 days. As the North Pacific pattern starts to feature some blocking (-EPO) its going to doing some serious work on the #PolarVortex. This is something to watch closely. #natgas




This woudl squeeze the PV and elongate it dropping some cold into the USA as depicted by the above maps. Time will tell for sure but interesting and some good news before the Nina state takes over.

Regarding Saturday's storm. The ULL is passing close to our region. Probably will slide just SE of the region. If there was a good antecedent air mass, I'd be pretty excited about the prospects of some snow. But with the air mass being relatively mild and how close it passes to our region I don't think it's going to amount to much. Expect for higher elevations of Poconos, Catskills, Berkshires, Green Mountains, etc. where 6"+ is possible.

I know the latest 06Z Euro has a lot of snow for the NW folks, but that is assuming this storm is really wound up and dynamically cools the column. Most other guidance just doesn't support it.

Nice. Im outside working out and we’ve got flurries. Yeah winter is already on the ledge of survival, but great way to start the day!

heehaw453 wrote:Regarding Saturday's storm.  The ULL is passing close to our region.  Probably will slide just SE of the region.  If there was a good antecedent air mass, I'd be pretty excited about the prospects of some snow.  But with the air mass being relatively mild and how close it passes to our region I don't think it's going to amount to much.  Expect for higher elevations of Poconos, Catskills, Berkshires, Green Mountains, etc. where 6"+ is possible.

I know the latest 06Z Euro has a lot of snow for the NW folks, but that is assuming this storm is really wound up and dynamically cools the column.  Most other guidance just doesn't support it.

I hear ya Heehaw.  Not sure just how far down towards the coastal plain snow can make it for those exact reasons, but Ive been watching the euro/GFS and now NAM is coming into range regarding the timing and positioning of the southern piece and the northern piece.  NAM and Euro have the southern piece just out ahead of the northern vort max which is critical, vs GFS has the Northern vort weaker and scoot out of the way before the southern energy therefore the warm surge is allowed to happen.  There is a decent set up with confluence along the coast.  I may try to throw together some images and a write up to highlight some of these things.

If it phases like the NAM and Euro show the ability to generate its cold air will be there. Its intriguing as we are now within a few days.

sroc4 wrote: If it phases like the NAM and Euro show the ability to generate its cold air will be there.  Its intriguing as we are now within a few days.  

The path is there for snow and I'm with you on the intrigue. I'd like to see the ULL about 75 more SE, get a capture just below our latitude and you'd get a CCB which would offset even >= 34 surface temperatures. I just see it as too much has to go right ATTM.

I like the Berkshires and Green Mountains for this one. But Mother Nature will do what she does, so let's see!

I can definitely see N&W getting their first snow of the season on Saturday. Not sure about accumulations, but at least some flakes.

Jesus H about 4-6 hours earlier and we'd be snowing decently!! Atmospheric set up is good, just not enough cold air- that High Pressure is in a good spot but needs be stronger for us to snow along the coast by about 10-15 mb IMO - time will tell.


NAM says hello!!

GFS says swing and a miss on the snow total rainmaker

Difference is how the northern stream interacts with the Southern energy - usually the case
EURO shows they dance = phase


Gfs holds the energy back a bot and the Northern stream is out ahead of this energy so it misses the phase - possible for sure but time will tell over the next 24 hours of runs

As per usual the GFS and Euro are light years away from one another even under 3days time frame at 500mb. 12z Euro is a comjplete phase with even me seeing some snow on LI most likely. NAM and CMC are similar in evolution at H5 to euro with subtle differences vs GFS on its own with no phase at all

12Z Op Euro shifted east a bit.  Stacks the lows vertically and develops a potent storm.  Again if we had a good antecedent air mass to work with I'd really be into this.  We don't have surface or mid level coldness.  Surface temperatures on Euro are > 36 during the storm.  So to Frank's point, snow may fall especially NW, but probably won't accumulate much.

Nonetheless this is what is projects.

heehaw453 wrote:12Z Op Euro shifted east a bit.  Stacks the lows vertically and develops a potent storm.  Again if we had a good antecedent air mass to work with I'd really be into this.  We don't have surface or mid level coldness.  Surface temperatures on Euro are > 36 during the storm.  So to Frank's point, snow may fall especially NW, but probably won't accumulate much.

Nonetheless this is what is projects.

I do my best not to look at temp profiles when H5 is still evolving, but you're right. 850 crashes nicely but surface through 925 are problems throughout the storm for many. If this were mid Jan man oh man, but that warmth ahead of this system will kill us. So close yet so far. The CCB crushes LI (IMBY) lol Look at that QPF

I had some big snowflakes here early this morning.  Not enough to stick, but it was nice to see.  I could really use some snow right now.  Any snow. I’d even settle for a dusting.

For everyone's enjoyment

amugs wrote:For everyone's enjoyment

NAM absolutely crashed the column due to dynamic cooling even at the 925's. That would probably accumulate as depicted where the CCB sets up. At least it's something to track early in the season.

If it bombs/slows down you can never rule out surprises. As long as the ULL is far enough under the area there can be no certainty w.r.t. snowfall.

ULL passes south of LI with No Phase = No Chance
ULL passes south of LI with Phase =

I had no idea snow was even possible at all with this haven't been follow. Not that anyone cares but this storm looks like it could bring some intense wind too.

sroc4 wrote:ULL passes south of LI with No Phase = No Chance
ULL passes south of LI with Phase =

lol love that scene she said 1:1000000 so ya I guess that's pur chances lol. Prolly better than that.