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December 2020 Observations and Discussion

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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:57 pm

GFS appears to be caving to the EURO in showing a more amplified solution that would bring some snow N&W of NYC

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Image.thumb.png.1d3fc212e66fdfa765714dd073702a0f

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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:59 pm

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Gfs_asnow_neus_16

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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:09 pm

RGEM

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Sn10_acc.us_ne

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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:13 pm

@brownie wrote:I had some big snowflakes here early this morning.  Not enough to stick, but it was nice to see.  I could really use some snow right now.  Any snow. I’d even settle for a dusting.

Me too....

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Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:33 pm

Anytime it is "phase or no phase", it seems to miss the phase more often than not. Everything has to go just right for anyone in the eastern half of NJ and the Hudson Valley on east to see any snow. I know the GFS is starting to come around, but I'm not expecting anything but a good rain storm at this point. But then again, it's 2020, so who knows! geek

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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:36 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:Anytime it is "phase or no phase", it seems to miss the phase more often than not. Everything has to go just right for anyone in the eastern half of NJ and the Hudson Valley on east to see any snow. I know the GFS is starting to come around, but I'm not expecting anything but a good rain storm at this point. But then again, it's 2020, so who knows! geek

A full phase would just mean heavier rain for us. There’s no scenario that would bring accumulating snow to the coast. The phase would help those N&W of NYC to see some snow

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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:41 am

It appears the modeling is going towards a more phased solution.  It's a question of when that occurs.  The 0Z Euro is very early with the phase and hence clobbers our NW folks.  The 06Z GFS is later with consolidation and hence there is a lot less.  The 0Z GDPS (Canadian) is more with the GFS.

Regardless of the solution surface temperatures are well above freezing.

Just based on past experience I'd say flakes will be seen but the best chance for snow accumulations > 3" are interior New England especially the higher elevations.  That certainly doesn't mean the NW folks won't see some accumulations.  The temperatures and timing of the phase are a problem.

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Post by phil155 on Thu Dec 03, 2020 10:02 am

maybe we will have a better chance mid month

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 03, 2020 10:02 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:Anytime it is "phase or no phase", it seems to miss the phase more often than not. Everything has to go just right for anyone in the eastern half of NJ and the Hudson Valley on east to see any snow. I know the GFS is starting to come around, but I'm not expecting anything but a good rain storm at this point. But then again, it's 2020, so who knows! geek

A full phase would just mean heavier rain for us. There’s no scenario that would bring accumulating snow to the coast. The phase would help those N&W of NYC to see some snow

While it is unlikely there are def scenarios for accumulating on or areound the coast Frank. 12 NAM case in point. That phases just right in that location at that time. Its baby bear....juuuussst right. Does that happen verbatim??? odds are no. But there is a way

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
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WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Post by amugs on Thu Dec 03, 2020 10:47 am

ENS not as bullish as the OP but hat can washed out by some members showing more wet than white - definitely an interior storm.
GEFS
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EoUpDfKXEAEKaAJ?format=jpg&name=medium
EURO
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EoUpDfIXUAEzkzz?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 03, 2020 11:11 am

If there was any cold air even remotely around this would be Roid-Frankzilla for someone.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Post by amugs on Thu Dec 03, 2020 11:49 am

The track will be more rain for us overall but the fact that we are able to track something is good at this stage.
The anomalous warm waters off the coast are not help at all. Need that HP stronger as I said yesterday.

27* for my low last night. Had that winter feel for sure.

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Post by amugs on Thu Dec 03, 2020 1:14 pm

GFS goes colder overall - wet snow on the backside
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EoU9pvdXcAIr0-7?format=png&name=medium


GEFS say yes to the operational
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EoU9pvbXYAcZ0yC?format=png&name=medium

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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Dec 03, 2020 1:43 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:Anytime it is "phase or no phase", it seems to miss the phase more often than not. Everything has to go just right for anyone in the eastern half of NJ and the Hudson Valley on east to see any snow. I know the GFS is starting to come around, but I'm not expecting anything but a good rain storm at this point. But then again, it's 2020, so who knows! geek

A full phase would just mean heavier rain for us. There’s no scenario that would bring accumulating snow to the coast. The phase would help those N&W of NYC to see some snow

While it is unlikely there are def scenarios for accumulating on or areound the coast Frank.  12 NAM case in point.  That phases just right in that location at that time.  Its baby bear....juuuussst right.  Does that happen verbatim???  odds are no.  But there is a way

Sroc Benchmark track seems more and more likely. If this thing bombs right you're getting some CCB paste in your neck of the woods. The 12Z Euro was pretty damn close for the North Shore.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:01 pm

Want to stress accumulating in my statement...backend snow for the coast is possible but nothing in terms of accumulating. N&W is still in the game for some, though!

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Want to stress accumulating in my statement...backend snow for the coast is possible but nothing in terms of accumulating. N&W is still in the game for some, though!
Don't care, if I see snowflakes falling it will put somewhat of a better mood on for this aweful year, stay safe eveyone, the US saw the most COVID deaths ever in the pandemic yesterday at 3,100.
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Post by amugs on Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:20 pm

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EoV1O5OW8BAP7SR?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

I'll take it and run Frank didn't you work for Bobby at one point?

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Post by aiannone on Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:22 pm

NWS UPTON

With a deepening low and nly component flow locking in however,
temps in the column should support snow as they wet bulb. The models
in fact all show the h925 to h7 layer cooling to blw freezing in the
deformation zone, even down to the coast.

BL temps will be toughest near the coast, especially LI with flow
off the water. Elsewhere, without any onshore component, it seems
likely that the cooling would be sufficient to support a changeover
during the day on Sat. This is what the fcst indicates.
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Post by billg315 on Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:23 pm

This storm could be the perfect early test-run of whether my recent move westward (and slightly higher in elevation) gives me a better shot at snow in these borderline storms. While I don’t expect much accumulation here (other than maybe a covering on colder surfaces), I could easily see where I end with steady snowflakes at my new place while it ends as just mostly rain or mix at my old place.
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Post by amugs on Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:25 pm

Need a 4 hour speed up by the North Energy to phase sooner, not impossible but not likely due to teh set up at this stage.

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EoVwOsjWMAAMBsK?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:09 pm

@amugs wrote:December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EoV1O5OW8BAP7SR?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

I'll take it and run Frank didn't you work for Bobby at one point?

Yup! Pretty bullish let’s see how it goes

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:17 pm

@amugs wrote:December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EoV1O5OW8BAP7SR?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

I'll take it and run Frank didn't you work for Bobby at one point?


This is Steve Dimartino...NOT Bobby M. If it were Bobby Id listen. Since its SD I wont

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
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WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Post by amugs on Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:24 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@amugs wrote:December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EoV1O5OW8BAP7SR?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

I'll take it and run Frank didn't you work for Bobby at one point?


This is Steve Dimartino...NOT Bobby M.  If it were Bobby Id listen.  Since its SD I wont

Oh yes that is correct I get them mixed up EPANJ WX and this one

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Post by amugs on Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:25 pm

WOW - talk about aggressive - usually they are the other way - we shall see

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 2.png.85d087e9999b648be0191b4a68ff9d14

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Post by amugs on Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:50 pm

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THE STORM SYS FOR SAT. THE 12Z MODELS ALL SUGGESTED THAT DEEPENING LOW PRES WOULD TRACK JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, PASSING NEAR CAPE COD ABOUT 00Z SUN. EVEN THIS CONSENSUS HAS BEEN SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS THE 18Z NAM HAS COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THIS CLUSTERING. WHAT IS RELATIVELY CERTAIN IS THAT WITH A LACK OF COLD AIR IN PLACE, ANY SNOW WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYS. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS, NAM AND ECMWF ALL SUPPORTED THIS NOTION, BUT STILL TEMPS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST IF LOOKING AT THE RAW MODEL SFC DATA AND GUIDANCE. WITH A DEEPENING LOW AND NLY COMPONENT FLOW LOCKING IN HOWEVER, TEMPS IN THE COLUMN SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW AS THEY WET BULB. THE MODELS IN FACT ALL SHOW THE H925 TO H7 LAYER COOLING TO BLW FREEZING IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE, EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST. BL TEMPS WILL BE TOUGHEST NEAR THE COAST, ESPECIALLY LI WITH FLOW OFF THE WATER. ELSEWHERE, WITHOUT ANY ONSHORE COMPONENT, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE COOLING WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THIS IS WHAT THE FCST INDICATES. A FEW INCHES HAS BEEN FCST FOR THE INTERIOR, WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN CT TO NE NJ FAVORED. LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA. SNOW GRAPHICS AND SNOW PROBS HAVE BEEN UPLOADED TO THE WEB.

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