December 2020 Observations and Discussion

WOW - talk about aggressive - usually they are the other way - we shall see

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THE STORM SYS FOR SAT. THE 12Z MODELS ALL SUGGESTED THAT DEEPENING LOW PRES WOULD TRACK JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, PASSING NEAR CAPE COD ABOUT 00Z SUN. EVEN THIS CONSENSUS HAS BEEN SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS THE 18Z NAM HAS COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THIS CLUSTERING. WHAT IS RELATIVELY CERTAIN IS THAT WITH A LACK OF COLD AIR IN PLACE, ANY SNOW WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYS. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS, NAM AND ECMWF ALL SUPPORTED THIS NOTION, BUT STILL TEMPS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST IF LOOKING AT THE RAW MODEL SFC DATA AND GUIDANCE. WITH A DEEPENING LOW AND NLY COMPONENT FLOW LOCKING IN HOWEVER, TEMPS IN THE COLUMN SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW AS THEY WET BULB. THE MODELS IN FACT ALL SHOW THE H925 TO H7 LAYER COOLING TO BLW FREEZING IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE, EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST. BL TEMPS WILL BE TOUGHEST NEAR THE COAST, ESPECIALLY LI WITH FLOW OFF THE WATER. ELSEWHERE, WITHOUT ANY ONSHORE COMPONENT, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE COOLING WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THIS IS WHAT THE FCST INDICATES. A FEW INCHES HAS BEEN FCST FOR THE INTERIOR, WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN CT TO NE NJ FAVORED. LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA. SNOW GRAPHICS AND SNOW PROBS HAVE BEEN UPLOADED TO THE WEB.

amugs wrote:THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THE STORM SYS FOR SAT. THE   12Z MODELS ALL SUGGESTED THAT DEEPENING LOW PRES WOULD TRACK JUST   SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, PASSING NEAR CAPE COD ABOUT 00Z SUN.   EVEN THIS CONSENSUS HAS BEEN SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS THE 18Z NAM HAS   COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THIS CLUSTERING.     WHAT IS RELATIVELY CERTAIN IS THAT WITH A LACK OF COLD AIR IN PLACE,   ANY SNOW WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYS. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE   GFS, NAM AND ECMWF ALL SUPPORTED THIS NOTION, BUT STILL TEMPS ARE   MARGINAL AT BEST IF LOOKING AT THE RAW MODEL SFC DATA AND GUIDANCE.   WITH A DEEPENING LOW AND NLY COMPONENT FLOW LOCKING IN HOWEVER,   TEMPS IN THE COLUMN SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW AS THEY WET BULB. THE MODELS   IN FACT ALL SHOW THE H925 TO H7 LAYER COOLING TO BLW FREEZING IN THE   DEFORMATION ZONE, EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST.     BL TEMPS WILL BE TOUGHEST NEAR THE COAST, ESPECIALLY LI WITH FLOW   OFF THE WATER. ELSEWHERE, WITHOUT ANY ONSHORE COMPONENT, IT SEEMS   LIKELY THAT THE COOLING WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER   DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THIS IS WHAT THE FCST INDICATES.     A FEW INCHES HAS BEEN FCST FOR THE INTERIOR, WITH THE HIGHER   ELEVATIONS OF WRN CT TO NE NJ FAVORED. LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST   OF THIS AREA. SNOW GRAPHICS AND SNOW PROBS HAVE BEEN UPLOADED TO THE   WEB.

I love it, I am picturing mugs screaming this at us the entire time, good post. We will see what happens.

I think this is going to be close but no cigar for most of the region. Even up here in HV I don't see more than a coating. The sweet spot is going to be Central and northern NE. Has CP come out of hibernation yet?

hyde345 wrote:I think this is going to be close but no cigar for most of the region. Even up here in HV I don't see more than a coating. The sweet spot is going to be Central and northern NE. Has CP come out of hibernation yet?

Most likely but to even be talking about snow on Dec. 3rd is cool, as of recent we havent been tracking much until Jan. Shoot it was 70 in some years around x-mas. I do not think we get that warm, unless I am mistaken.

jmanley32 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:I think this is going to be close but no cigar for most of the region. Even up here in HV I don't see more than a coating. The sweet spot is going to be Central and northern NE. Has CP come out of hibernation yet?

Most likely but to even be talking about snow on Dec. 3rd is cool, as of recent we havent been tracking much until Jan. Shoot it was 70 in some years around x-mas.  I do not think we get that warm, unless I am mistaken.

Almost exactly a year ago I picked up 11 inches which was half of my total for the season. Lets hope we all do a little better than last winter. The jury is still out on that though.

hyde345 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:I think this is going to be close but no cigar for most of the region. Even up here in HV I don't see more than a coating. The sweet spot is going to be Central and northern NE. Has CP come out of hibernation yet?

Most likely but to even be talking about snow on Dec. 3rd is cool, as of recent we havent been tracking much until Jan. Shoot it was 70 in some years around x-mas.  I do not think we get that warm, unless I am mistaken.

Almost exactly a year ago I picked up 11 inches which was half of my total for the season. Lets hope we all do a little better than last winter. The jury is still out on that though.

Well that def did not happen IMBY, we got maybe 4 inches all winter with a number of 0.25-1.0 flurries.

hyde345 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:I think this is going to be close but no cigar for most of the region. Even up here in HV I don't see more than a coating. The sweet spot is going to be Central and northern NE. Has CP come out of hibernation yet?

Most likely but to even be talking about snow on Dec. 3rd is cool, as of recent we havent been tracking much until Jan. Shoot it was 70 in some years around x-mas.  I do not think we get that warm, unless I am mistaken.

Almost exactly a year ago I picked up 11 inches which was half of my total for the season. Lets hope we all do a little better than last winter. The jury is still out on that though.

The evening of December 1st last year ice started changing to snow on the second and not ending until the 3rd. We ended up with 12 inches, so you're right on the money with that Hyde. You're also right on the money about it being half of our snowfall for the entire season. Picked up an additional 11.1 inches between December 4th and May 9th. One of the worst Winters ever.

0z GFS holds with an impressive hit

Alex great maps there kid. That 986 means a strong Nor and it should change us over to some backend wet snow since it bombing, phase is just of NJ. Good sign there.
I have to say this storm will help set up the Monday possibility storm. That one has better potential. This was a cutter LR, OTS now up the coast.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

hyde345 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:I think this is going to be close but no cigar for most of the region. Even up here in HV I don't see more than a coating. The sweet spot is going to be Central and northern NE. Has CP come out of hibernation yet?

Most likely but to even be talking about snow on Dec. 3rd is cool, as of recent we havent been tracking much until Jan. Shoot it was 70 in some years around x-mas.  I do not think we get that warm, unless I am mistaken.

Almost exactly a year ago I picked up 11 inches which was half of my total for the season. Lets hope we all do a little better than last winter. The jury is still out on that though.

The evening of December 1st last year ice started changing to snow on the second and not ending until the 3rd. We ended up with 12 inches, so you're right on the money with that Hyde. You're also right on the money about it being half of our snowfall for the entire season. Picked up an additional 11.1 inches between December 4th and May 9th. One of the worst Winters ever.

For real? over 20 inches? cry me a river CP lol, yeah geographically speaking thats not a good winter.

amugs wrote:Alex great maps there kid. That 986 means a strong Nor and it should change us over to some backend wet snow since it bombing, phase is just of NJ. Good sign there.
I have to say this storm will help set up the Monday possibility storm. That one has better potential. This was a cutter LR, OTS now up the coast.

Do you think winds will be a issue with this storm? I noted on the model runs all the winds are on the east side and very strong at that, but sometimes the modeling is off on whats on the other side for some reason. NWS did mention 45mph gusts, which seems safe atm, could see high wind warnings if it comes in stronger. yucky either way, and even I though usually love wind storms, don't really like it if its pouring out cuz i like to be able to be out in it. I love sunny windstorms.

Bottom line is the lack of cold air at the surface and just above is killing us. The freezing line ahead of the storm extends way up beyond the US Canadian boarder. Yes the dynamics are great but there is nowhere to draw cold air in from. Don’t hold your breath for this one.

Fun to track though. Cheers!

This is definitely not our storm. Like a Miller B normally does it will nail New England with 6"+ of snow. The lack of cold air seals the deal for us, otherwise, it'd be a nice storm even with the late development.

I also think that western NJ, EPA, HV may get < 1" of rain out of this as the bulk of the heavy rain stays SE of those areas.

All things considered though, this really is very close for LI North Shore, so don't be surprised to get some accumulating paste there.

The phase happens when the southern ULL gets near RI. If there was a semblance of blocking, the phase would occur earlier and we would be dealing with quite a monster tracking to the 40/70 BM. Although the southern ULL tracks to the BM, it’s not wound up enough for anything significant to happen in our area outside of rain. We’ll see if N&W could get some snow showers but wouldn’t bank on it. The good news is, rain will end by early Saturday morning so we can salvage a dry weekend.

Look at the slight changes over Minnesota - that bring the system about 25 miles more west - slight changes = BIG IMPACTS

I have friends getting married outdoors at 2pm tomorrow. They’re asking me if it will stop raining.

Talk about pressure...

To me, looks like it will be close.

Frank_Wx wrote:I have friends getting married outdoors at 2pm tomorrow. They’re asking me if it will stop raining.

Talk about pressure...

To me, looks like it will be close.

Where Frank? Id bet if they were getting married by me tomorrow it will still be raining

Ensembles have snow in LHV and NNJ now - interesting

heehaw453 wrote:This is definitely not our storm.  Like a Miller B normally does it will nail New England with 6"+ of snow.  The lack of cold air seals the deal for us, otherwise, it'd be a nice storm even with the late development.

I also think that western NJ, EPA, HV may get < 1" of rain out of this as the bulk of the heavy rain stays SE of those areas.  

All things considered though, this really is very close for LI North Shore, so don't be surprised to get some accumulating paste there.

You may be onto something here.  Only thing making me hesitate is the low to mid 50's SST in the LI sound and the north wind modifying because of it.

amugs wrote:Ensembles  have snow in LHV and NNJ now - interesting

Not enough of them.

This storm is toast as is this winter. This will make three stinkers in a row, I'll check back in again around the 18th and hope something drastically changes. For now I stick with this motto, the less I follow it, the less it annoys me. After the last two winters it's at least working for me, so far.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:Ensembles  have snow in LHV and NNJ now - interesting

Not enough of them.

This storm is toast as is this winter. This will make three stinkers in a row, I'll check back in again around the 18th and hope something drastically changes. For now I stick with this motto, the less I follow it, the less it annoys me. After the last two winters it's at least working for me, so far.

Throwing in the towel already are you CP?? Any snow is good snow no??

EURO goes back to its idea of a tick colder for the HV peeps

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:I have friends getting married outdoors at 2pm tomorrow. They’re asking me if it will stop raining.

Talk about pressure...

To me, looks like it will be close.

Where Frank?  Id bet if they were getting married by me tomorrow it will still be raining

Hoboken, NJ

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:Ensembles  have snow in LHV and NNJ now - interesting

Not enough of them.

This storm is toast as is this winter. This will make three stinkers in a row, I'll check back in again around the 18th and hope something drastically changes. For now I stick with this motto, the less I follow it, the less it annoys me. After the last two winters it's at least working for me, so far.

Yea, its been lousy. Maybe this winter will surprise in a good way, but wouldnt bet on it!

I guess if the high was 1040ish and more SE towards Montreal we'd be in business.  But just looking at the 850's and that low pressure I'd say NYC would be ankle deep in snow. Perfect benchmark track.  What a crying shame.

HRRR saying some back end snow as dynamic cooling takes place over teh mountains in NNJ - Possibly but time will tell

I'm at 41 with .47" inches on the gauge.

GFS and Euro trying to paint 12"+ of snow in Worcester MA with 925's around 32, 850's around 31 and surface not dropping below 35 F.  Man I see the dynamics in play but it's going to have snow > 3" per hour for many hours to obtain that kind of accumulation.  I'd take the under on those accumulations in SNE less the very highest elevations above 1500' feet.  Of course higher elevations of ME and NH will cash in and I believe the accumulations there.

I think BOX may get skunked < 2" on this one in terms of accumulations.  There's only so hard it can snow to offset the airmass.

BTW, you'd need a yard stick to measure the snow if there was a cold air mass up there.

I just don't think so...