NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Page 3 of 11 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 9, 10, 11  Next

Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 03, 2020 10:37 pm

@amugs wrote:THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THE STORM SYS FOR SAT. THE   12Z MODELS ALL SUGGESTED THAT DEEPENING LOW PRES WOULD TRACK JUST   SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, PASSING NEAR CAPE COD ABOUT 00Z SUN.   EVEN THIS CONSENSUS HAS BEEN SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS THE 18Z NAM HAS   COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THIS CLUSTERING.     WHAT IS RELATIVELY CERTAIN IS THAT WITH A LACK OF COLD AIR IN PLACE,   ANY SNOW WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYS. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE   GFS, NAM AND ECMWF ALL SUPPORTED THIS NOTION, BUT STILL TEMPS ARE   MARGINAL AT BEST IF LOOKING AT THE RAW MODEL SFC DATA AND GUIDANCE.   WITH A DEEPENING LOW AND NLY COMPONENT FLOW LOCKING IN HOWEVER,   TEMPS IN THE COLUMN SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW AS THEY WET BULB. THE MODELS   IN FACT ALL SHOW THE H925 TO H7 LAYER COOLING TO BLW FREEZING IN THE   DEFORMATION ZONE, EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST.     BL TEMPS WILL BE TOUGHEST NEAR THE COAST, ESPECIALLY LI WITH FLOW   OFF THE WATER. ELSEWHERE, WITHOUT ANY ONSHORE COMPONENT, IT SEEMS   LIKELY THAT THE COOLING WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER   DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THIS IS WHAT THE FCST INDICATES.     A FEW INCHES HAS BEEN FCST FOR THE INTERIOR, WITH THE HIGHER   ELEVATIONS OF WRN CT TO NE NJ FAVORED. LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST   OF THIS AREA. SNOW GRAPHICS AND SNOW PROBS HAVE BEEN UPLOADED TO THE   WEB.
I love it, I am picturing mugs screaming this at us the entire time, good post. We will see what happens.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17263
Reputation : 103
Join date : 2013-12-13
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by hyde345 on Thu Dec 03, 2020 11:01 pm

I think this is going to be close but no cigar for most of the region. Even up here in HV I don't see more than a coating. The sweet spot is going to be Central and northern NE. Has CP come out of hibernation yet?
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 847
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 03, 2020 11:25 pm

@hyde345 wrote:I think this is going to be close but no cigar for most of the region. Even up here in HV I don't see more than a coating. The sweet spot is going to be Central and northern NE. Has CP come out of hibernation yet?
Most likely but to even be talking about snow on Dec. 3rd is cool, as of recent we havent been tracking much until Jan. Shoot it was 70 in some years around x-mas. I do not think we get that warm, unless I am mistaken.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17263
Reputation : 103
Join date : 2013-12-13
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by hyde345 on Thu Dec 03, 2020 11:53 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:I think this is going to be close but no cigar for most of the region. Even up here in HV I don't see more than a coating. The sweet spot is going to be Central and northern NE. Has CP come out of hibernation yet?
Most likely but to even be talking about snow on Dec. 3rd is cool, as of recent we havent been tracking much until Jan. Shoot it was 70 in some years around x-mas.  I do not think we get that warm, unless I am mistaken.

Almost exactly a year ago I picked up 11 inches which was half of my total for the season. Lets hope we all do a little better than last winter. The jury is still out on that though.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 847
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:12 am

@hyde345 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:I think this is going to be close but no cigar for most of the region. Even up here in HV I don't see more than a coating. The sweet spot is going to be Central and northern NE. Has CP come out of hibernation yet?
Most likely but to even be talking about snow on Dec. 3rd is cool, as of recent we havent been tracking much until Jan. Shoot it was 70 in some years around x-mas.  I do not think we get that warm, unless I am mistaken.

Almost exactly a year ago I picked up 11 inches which was half of my total for the season. Lets hope we all do a little better than last winter. The jury is still out on that though.
Well that def did not happen IMBY, we got maybe 4 inches all winter with a number of 0.25-1.0 flurries.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17263
Reputation : 103
Join date : 2013-12-13
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:37 am

@hyde345 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:I think this is going to be close but no cigar for most of the region. Even up here in HV I don't see more than a coating. The sweet spot is going to be Central and northern NE. Has CP come out of hibernation yet?
Most likely but to even be talking about snow on Dec. 3rd is cool, as of recent we havent been tracking much until Jan. Shoot it was 70 in some years around x-mas.  I do not think we get that warm, unless I am mistaken.

Almost exactly a year ago I picked up 11 inches which was half of my total for the season. Lets hope we all do a little better than last winter. The jury is still out on that though.

The evening of December 1st last year ice started changing to snow on the second and not ending until the 3rd. We ended up with 12 inches, so you're right on the money with that Hyde. You're also right on the money about it being half of our snowfall for the entire season. Picked up an additional 11.1 inches between December 4th and May 9th. One of the worst Winters ever.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6482
Reputation : 229
Join date : 2013-01-08
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

hyde345 likes this post

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by aiannone on Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:46 am

0z GFS holds with an impressive hit
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 F62fbc10
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Cc4ffd10
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4027
Reputation : 88
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:53 am

Alex great maps there kid. That 986 means a strong Nor and it should change us over to some backend wet snow since it bombing, phase is just of NJ. Good sign there.
I have to say this storm will help set up the Monday possibility storm. That one has better potential. This was a cutter LR, OTS now up the coast.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11467
Reputation : 209
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:43 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:I think this is going to be close but no cigar for most of the region. Even up here in HV I don't see more than a coating. The sweet spot is going to be Central and northern NE. Has CP come out of hibernation yet?
Most likely but to even be talking about snow on Dec. 3rd is cool, as of recent we havent been tracking much until Jan. Shoot it was 70 in some years around x-mas.  I do not think we get that warm, unless I am mistaken.

Almost exactly a year ago I picked up 11 inches which was half of my total for the season. Lets hope we all do a little better than last winter. The jury is still out on that though.

The evening of December 1st last year ice started changing to snow on the second and not ending until the 3rd. We ended up with 12 inches, so you're right on the money with that Hyde. You're also right on the money about it being half of our snowfall for the entire season. Picked up an additional 11.1 inches between December 4th and May 9th. One of the worst Winters ever.
For real? over 20 inches? cry me a river CP lol, yeah geographically speaking thats not a good winter.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17263
Reputation : 103
Join date : 2013-12-13
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:46 am

@amugs wrote:Alex great maps there kid. That 986 means a strong Nor and it should change us over to some backend wet snow since it bombing, phase is just of NJ. Good sign there.
I have to say this storm will help set up the Monday possibility storm. That one has better potential. This was a cutter LR, OTS now up the coast.
Do you think winds will be a issue with this storm? I noted on the model runs all the winds are on the east side and very strong at that, but sometimes the modeling is off on whats on the other side for some reason. NWS did mention 45mph gusts, which seems safe atm, could see high wind warnings if it comes in stronger. yucky either way, and even I though usually love wind storms, don't really like it if its pouring out cuz i like to be able to be out in it. I love sunny windstorms.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17263
Reputation : 103
Join date : 2013-12-13
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 04, 2020 7:52 am

Bottom line is the lack of cold air at the surface and just above is killing us. The freezing line ahead of the storm extends way up beyond the US Canadian boarder. Yes the dynamics are great but there is nowhere to draw cold air in from. Don’t hold your breath for this one.

Fun to track though. Cheers!

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6681
Reputation : 291
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 on Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:02 am

This is definitely not our storm. Like a Miller B normally does it will nail New England with 6"+ of snow. The lack of cold air seals the deal for us, otherwise, it'd be a nice storm even with the late development.

I also think that western NJ, EPA, HV may get < 1" of rain out of this as the bulk of the heavy rain stays SE of those areas.

All things considered though, this really is very close for LI North Shore, so don't be surprised to get some accumulating paste there.


heehaw453

Posts : 1071
Reputation : 75
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:19 pm

The phase happens when the southern ULL gets near RI. If there was a semblance of blocking, the phase would occur earlier and we would be dealing with quite a monster tracking to the 40/70 BM. Although the southern ULL tracks to the BM, it’s not wound up enough for anything significant to happen in our area outside of rain. We’ll see if N&W could get some snow showers but wouldn’t bank on it. The good news is, rain will end by early Saturday morning so we can salvage a dry weekend.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19391
Reputation : 306
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:51 pm

Look at the slight changes over Minnesota - that bring the system about 25 miles more west - slight changes = BIG IMPACTS

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs10

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11467
Reputation : 209
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:34 pm

I have friends getting married outdoors at 2pm tomorrow. They’re asking me if it will stop raining.

Talk about pressure...

To me, looks like it will be close.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19391
Reputation : 306
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:35 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I have friends getting married outdoors at 2pm tomorrow. They’re asking me if it will stop raining.

Talk about pressure...

To me, looks like it will be close.

Where Frank? Id bet if they were getting married by me tomorrow it will still be raining

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6681
Reputation : 291
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:54 pm

Ensembles have snow in LHV and NNJ now - interesting

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 EoaU_UcXcAQAZjx?format=jpg&name=medium

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11467
Reputation : 209
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 04, 2020 3:40 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:This is definitely not our storm.  Like a Miller B normally does it will nail New England with 6"+ of snow.  The lack of cold air seals the deal for us, otherwise, it'd be a nice storm even with the late development.

I also think that western NJ, EPA, HV may get < 1" of rain out of this as the bulk of the heavy rain stays SE of those areas.  

All things considered though, this really is very close for LI North Shore, so don't be surprised to get some accumulating paste there.


You may be onto something here.  Only thing making me hesitate is the low to mid 50's SST in the LI sound and the north wind modifying because of it.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6681
Reputation : 291
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Dec 04, 2020 3:58 pm

@amugs wrote:Ensembles  have snow in LHV and NNJ now - interesting

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 EoaU_UcXcAQAZjx?format=jpg&name=medium

Not enough of them.

This storm is toast as is this winter. This will make three stinkers in a row, I'll check back in again around the 18th and hope something drastically changes. For now I stick with this motto, the less I follow it, the less it annoys me. After the last two winters it's at least working for me, so far.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6482
Reputation : 229
Join date : 2013-01-08
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

CPcantmeasuresnow and rb924119 like this post

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:53 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:Ensembles  have snow in LHV and NNJ now - interesting

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 EoaU_UcXcAQAZjx?format=jpg&name=medium

Not enough of them.

This storm is toast as is this winter. This will make three stinkers in a row, I'll check back in again around the 18th and hope something drastically changes. For now I stick with this motto, the less I follow it, the less it annoys me. After the last two winters it's at least working for me, so far.

Throwing in the towel already are you CP?? Any snow is good snow no??

EURO goes back to its idea of a tick colder for the HV peeps

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 EoaXoKtXIAAloTa?format=png&name=medium

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11467
Reputation : 209
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 04, 2020 5:16 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I have friends getting married outdoors at 2pm tomorrow. They’re asking me if it will stop raining.

Talk about pressure...

To me, looks like it will be close.

Where Frank?  Id bet if they were getting married by me tomorrow it will still be raining

Hoboken, NJ

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19391
Reputation : 306
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 04, 2020 5:18 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:Ensembles  have snow in LHV and NNJ now - interesting

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 EoaU_UcXcAQAZjx?format=jpg&name=medium

Not enough of them.

This storm is toast as is this winter. This will make three stinkers in a row, I'll check back in again around the 18th and hope something drastically changes. For now I stick with this motto, the less I follow it, the less it annoys me. After the last two winters it's at least working for me, so far.

Yea, its been lousy. Maybe this winter will surprise in a good way, but wouldnt bet on it! Tired Mad

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19391
Reputation : 306
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 on Fri Dec 04, 2020 6:57 pm

I guess if the high was 1040ish and more SE towards Montreal we'd be in business.  But just looking at the 850's and that low pressure I'd say NYC would be ankle deep in snow. Perfect benchmark track.  What a crying shame.

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs26

heehaw453

Posts : 1071
Reputation : 75
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:02 pm

HRRR saying some back end snow as dynamic cooling takes place over teh mountains in NNJ - Possibly but time will tell

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Eob2t6NWMAAHJnr?format=jpg&name=medium

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11467
Reputation : 209
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 on Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:36 am

I'm at 41 with .47" inches on the gauge.

GFS and Euro trying to paint 12"+ of snow in Worcester MA with 925's around 32, 850's around 31 and surface not dropping below 35 F.  Man I see the dynamics in play but it's going to have snow > 3" per hour for many hours to obtain that kind of accumulation.  I'd take the under on those accumulations in SNE less the very highest elevations above 1500' feet.  Of course higher elevations of ME and NH will cash in and I believe the accumulations there.

I think BOX may get skunked < 2" on this one in terms of accumulations.  There's only so hard it can snow to offset the airmass.

BTW, you'd need a yard stick to measure the snow if there was a cold air mass up there.

I just don't think so...

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Snow10

heehaw453

Posts : 1071
Reputation : 75
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 11 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 9, 10, 11  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum