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December 2020 Observations and Discussion

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Post by amugs on Fri Dec 18, 2020 4:16 pm

Trends are our freinds!! Like last Mondays system, they like to go North!! This time we have cold air in place already with a solid snowpack that will be a glacier by Sunday!!

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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Dec 18, 2020 5:14 pm

GFS and NAM starting to pick up some light snow for Sunday afternoon/evening.  Nam seems to form a little wave that could be sneaky.  Has some other guidance support too.

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 Nam19

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Post by amugs on Fri Dec 18, 2020 5:31 pm

This storm sets the table for Tuesday and Xmas - the Domino Affect!

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Post by amugs on Fri Dec 18, 2020 5:48 pm

NAM
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 Nam-218-all-nystate-instant_ptype-1608314400-1608498000-1608541200-40
GFS is stronger
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 Gfs-deterministic-nystate-instant_ptype-1608314400-1608476400-1608519600-40

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Dec 19, 2020 12:38 am

7.9° at a little past midnight.

I don't think I'll make 0° but most likely will surpass last winters low, the pathetic 5.1° of last February 15th. It would be nice to wipe that out tonight as well as the awful memories of the winter of 2019/20.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Dec 19, 2020 7:55 am

2 degrees above zero.

Doesn’t quite look like will make 0 but cold enough.
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Post by SENJsnowman on Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:07 am

@amugs wrote:NAM
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 Nam-218-all-nystate-instant_ptype-1608314400-1608498000-1608541200-40
GFS is stronger
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 Gfs-deterministic-nystate-instant_ptype-1608314400-1608476400-1608519600-40

Ocean County (at least coastal Ocean) guest starring in a Seinfeld episode: NO SNOW FOR YOU!! 😂😭😂😭😂😭😂

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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Dec 19, 2020 9:29 am

Hit 7.5 for low.

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Post by amugs on Sat Dec 19, 2020 9:37 am

11* for my low

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Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Dec 19, 2020 9:49 am

8.8* for my low, looks beautiful out, but boy it's cold!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  9"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by dkodgis on Sat Dec 19, 2020 10:16 am

NWS had me at -2 at 5:30 am. Alexa and the thermometer had me at -4. Even at 7 it was -4


Last edited by dkodgis on Sat Dec 19, 2020 11:03 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by docstox12 on Sat Dec 19, 2020 10:59 am

@dkodgis wrote:NWS had me at -2 at 5:30 am. Alexa and the thermometer had ne at -4. Even at 7 it was -4

Nice, Damian, and it;s still technically Fall.
I think it looks good for a White Christmas in our areas.A warm up Thursday but a crash back down with snow showers Christmas Day to freshen the snowpack up.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Dec 19, 2020 11:44 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@dkodgis wrote:NWS had me at -2 at 5:30 am. Alexa and the thermometer had ne at -4. Even at 7 it was -4

Nice, Damian, and it;s still technically Fall.
I think it looks good for a White Christmas in our areas.A warm up Thursday but a crash back down with snow showers Christmas Day to freshen the snowpack up.

Didn't make zero bottomed out at 2°.

This Christmas Eve storm as modeled now by most of the major models is a nightmare for a snowpack. High winds, rain and temps in low 50's. I hope the models back off this in future rains. We can endure some rain and 40's Christmas Eve with lighter winds and still have a snowpack but not if the current GFS, EURO and CMC verify.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Dec 19, 2020 11:46 am

WOW 16* for a low this morning..
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Post by hyde345 on Sat Dec 19, 2020 1:00 pm

23 and sunny now after a low of 1 below early this morning. Maybe some snow showers tomorrow.
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Post by Taffy on Sat Dec 19, 2020 1:59 pm

Last night fell to 5 degrees.  It was a dry cold so didn't go to my bones.

Today it's 32. No wind and sunny.

Tomorrow it's 37 degrees with rain and snow mixed.
Snow? Seriously? I'm not good enough at this but I did learn here that snow at 37 is a no go.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 19, 2020 2:34 pm

Looks like some light rain mixed with snow tomorrow. Maybe all snow N&W, but very little if any accumulation. It will fall during the day

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Post by amugs on Sat Dec 19, 2020 5:33 pm

Euro says this fresh coating to snow for NNJ - sorry LI and SNJ peeps

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 Ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-instant_ptype_3hr-1608379200-1608476400-1608498000-40



December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 1608508800-JUXzJyEMlqI

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Sat Dec 19, 2020 5:36 pm

3K NAM picks up a bot more and temps in NNJ between 28-31* as per models

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 Nam-nest-conus-nyc-instant_ptype_3hr-1608400800-1608483600-1608501600-40

Even half of this I'll take

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 1608505200-9ZaOiyIW29U

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by aiannone on Sat Dec 19, 2020 9:17 pm

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 C105f010
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 16bd6b10
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 02fec910
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Dec 19, 2020 11:18 pm

@aiannone wrote:December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 C105f010
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 16bd6b10
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 02fec910
nice! Shoes me getting a bit over a inch. That's a interesting small area of snow.
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:59 am

Snowing here now
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Post by SENJsnowman on Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:13 am

Radar shows snow, ears and eyes say sleet. Skins I think I’m about 5-10 miles to your south.

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Post by SENJsnowman on Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:11 am

Rain sleet snowflakes and even some of that grapple stuff all at the same time. Yet radar still says all snow...Very interesting. Is that due to high dew point? Or that the higher temps are much closer to the surface? Or is that kind of the same thing?

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Post by SENJsnowman on Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:44 am

I'll try answering my own question. If you look ahead another few hours, we see that while the 540 line appears well to my south (woo hoo!), all of the low level air is flowing N/NE from the warmer gulf states (boo!). None of that cold air from the last storm is sticking around. And so, we get Pooville!! And I think my mixed bag of precip at present represents that transition from colder surface air temps to warmer as that precip and wind direction continue moving north. I think...

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 Captur10December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 Captur12

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