Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:30 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:That euro run was crazy. Wow

fRANK If I see 20.1 inches of snow on Wed which is right over me on that map I will not complain the rest of the winter, thats nearly our yearly average on one day!! You may have to put back the roidzilla potential if the Euro holds, if the GFS trends that way it would be even better!! Cannot wait to see the SR models in a day or 2.

by **algae888** Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:32 pm

Don't forget the snow Maps are 10 to 1 ratios there's going to be higher ratios with the CCB bands

by **Irish** Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:34 pm

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/northeast-snow-storm-noreaster-biggest-in-years/

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:35 pm

CMC is also fairly close to Euro, the GFS seems to be a outlier in some respects, but even it brings 4-8 around NYC area, which is still good. 6-20 as it stands lol

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:37 pm

algae888 wrote:Don't forget the snow Maps are 10 to 1 ratios there's going to be higher ratios with the CCB bands

It was stated it might only be 8:1, you think it'll be higher.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:40 pm

Good to see the Euro back off with the tucked in solution. What the 12z Euro depicts is the perfect track. I expect the GFS to correct NW in time.

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:42 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Good to see the Euro back off with the tucked in solution. What the 12z Euro depicts is the perfect track. I expect the GFS to correct NW in time.

I hope so, that would be fantastic. CMC as i said also was a good blow to the area with many seeing godzilla totals, I think this may still have roid potential especially where they Euro has the highest snows, gonna be a exciting few days of tracking, im just glad its 3 days out and not 7 or more. Not even 3 days, in 3 days it will be starting to snow if it is on time.

by **sroc4** Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:47 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:Don't forget the snow Maps are 10 to 1 ratios there's going to be higher ratios with the CCB bands
It was stated it might only be 8:1, you think it'll be higher.

It will be higher than 8:1 in most locations. Maybe near the RS line but that’s it. Once you are 20 miles away from the Rs line ratios jump. Very cold air mass. rs line sees the most QPF but just to the north sees the highest ratios.

by **heehaw453** Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:48 pm

LOL! Euro closes at 850 and just meanders. That's a recipe for extreme accumulations given the cold and that track.

Look at the tilt of the 500 trough. Just throwing all the Atlantic moisture of a cold dome of air. Classic.

Euro 500 MB

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 9 Euro5017

Euro 850 MB

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 9 Euro8510

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:49 pm

algae888 wrote:Don't forget the snow Maps are 10 to 1 ratios there's going to be higher ratios with the CCB bands

Yes but also keep in mind the dry air at the onset of the storm
will eat some of the precip. It will take some time for the air
to get saturated.

by **MattyICE** Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:49 pm

I think ratios will be complicated. Lot of ifs, but if the 50/50 low ends up as strong as modeled and the High in SE Canada as well that CAD will not only be legit, it will be undermodeled by the globals as frequently happens. This is a true arctic-sourced high, so areas that end up benefiting from these processes can certainly exceed 10:1 ratios. Heavy winds could also cut down ratios but, again, we know how frequently they DON’T mix down to the surface. Is 8:1 possible? I suppose for more southern portions of the board...but I think 10:1+ is much more likely. These are all details that will be handled better by the mesoscale models and sounding analysis probably starting Monday evening and beyond. Just my two cents.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:49 pm

heehaw453 wrote:LOL! Euro closes at 850 and just meanders. That's a recipe for extreme accumulations given the cold and that track.

Look at the tilt of the 500 trough. Just throwing all the Atlantic moisture of a cold dome of air. Classic.

Euro 500 MB

Euro 850 MB

Can you post 700mb?

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:51 pm

MattyICE wrote:I think ratios will be complicated. Lot of ifs, but if the 50/50 low ends up as strong as modeled and the High in SE Canada as well that CAD will not only be legit, it will be undermodeled by the globals as frequently happens. This is a true arctic-sourced high, so areas that end up benefiting from these processes can certainly exceed 10:1 ratios. Heavy winds could also cut down ratios but, again, we know how frequently they DON’T mix down to the surface. Is 8:1 possible? I suppose for more southern portions of the board...but I think 10:1+ is much more likely. These are all details that will be handled better by the mesoscale models and sounding analysis probably starting Monday evening and beyond. Just my two cents.

Great post and I agree

by **heehaw453** Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:58 pm

Oh yeah if the Euro is accurate on that last run you'll see blizzard conditions in northern Monmouth Cty and NYC/LI for sure. Big IF of course.

by **hyde345** Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:01 pm

Still think a Cmc/Euro blend is the best way to go. The blend is your friend. GFS and Ukie both outliers ATM. GFS is too suppressed and precip shield should be farther north. It gives me 2 inches(not happening). The Ukie gives Albany 26 inches and LI practically nothing(again, not happening).

by **SoulSingMG** Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:03 pm

Good grief lol. That 12z Euro is eye-poppin’ What a Face

Depicts a legit b******* for NYC metro.

by **heehaw453** Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:03 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:LOL! Euro closes at 850 and just meanders. That's a recipe for extreme accumulations given the cold and that track.

Look at the tilt of the 500 trough. Just throwing all the Atlantic moisture of a cold dome of air. Classic.

Euro 500 MB

Euro 850 MB

Can you post 700mb?

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 9 Euro7010

by **amugs** Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:09 pm

by **heehaw453** Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:12 pm

12Z Euro ensembles show 12"+ central Jersey on north. That's incredible alignment at this range.

by **heehaw453** Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:14 pm

amugs wrote:

That almost points to my house. lol

by **SoulSingMG** Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:15 pm

ENS are stunning Laughing

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 9 Ff9a3c10

by **amugs** Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:19 pm

EPS is a WOWZA
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 9 6FDCA638-F56A-4DB1-8AD7-48E79E6A2A9E.png.1f1b5cd4991b886e35db3d6753b53b9e

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 9 FB_IMG_1607886319902.jpg.c42ffeaf0b68022e2cca30b19d9c29ed

From Billy @ NSFWx
CIPS top analog for teh 500MB set up is...Dec 5, 2003
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 9 EpIs6q3W8AAtihX?format=jpg&name=900x900

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 9 EpIs6q3W8AAtihX?format=jpg&name=900x900

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:19 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:ENS are stunning

Can't get much better confidence than that!!

by **amugs** Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:21 pm

DO NOT POST THE EURO SNOW MAPS PLEASE _ NOT YET _ THEY ARE IN LINE WITH THE CIPS ANALOG _ LEAVE IT AT THAT PLEASE!!

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:21 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
amugs wrote:

That almost points to my house. lol

What do the different shades mean? They do not color code with the bar, I am in the dark green, I presume thats good if I want a lot of snow.

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:31 pm

amugs wrote:EPS is a WOWZA

From Billy @ NSFWx
CIPS top analog for teh 500MB set up is...Dec 5, 2003

You just posted the ensemble snow map lol, 15 inches as a ensemble jesus that means there are some way higher dang!

by **amugs** Sun Dec 13, 2020 4:19 pm

JMAN, I mean the EURO OP run. It may cause some to melt down in delight and then cry a river when they come up short.

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