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JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:17 am

About 1/2 OTG here. Nice little pre before the storm tonight. Woke up to beautiful flakes falling!

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Post by DAYBLAZER Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:26 am

Managed to sleep in, thinking no snow until the afternoon. Woke up with just over an inch on the ground here in Hopatcong, sticking to all surfaces.

Nice little appetizer! Hoping for a few more inches later during the football games.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 03, 2021 12:01 pm

HRRR says snow this afternoon and tonight, ticked colder.

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 3 1628610147_hrrr-conus-nystate-refc_ptype-1609686000-1609696800-1609740000-40(1).gif.ce7eef2bed8c1facbb774f1ce644970b

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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 03, 2021 12:09 pm

@amugs wrote:HRRR says snow this afternoon and tonight, ticked colder.

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 3 1628610147_hrrr-conus-nystate-refc_ptype-1609686000-1609696800-1609740000-40(1).gif.ce7eef2bed8c1facbb774f1ce644970b

That loop is a sick joke for us LI’ers. I vote to take it down
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 03, 2021 12:33 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@amugs wrote:HRRR says snow this afternoon and tonight, ticked colder.

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 3 1628610147_hrrr-conus-nystate-refc_ptype-1609686000-1609696800-1609740000-40(1).gif.ce7eef2bed8c1facbb774f1ce644970b

That loop is a sick joke for us LI’ers. I vote to take it down
very very fine line for my and the city too, the snow line literally wanes through southern westchester to the bronx, yeah LI gets skunked.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 03, 2021 12:34 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@phil155 wrote:Icy mess but looking at radar it looks like it should end soon. Should we expect precip to fill in and start again later on

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow radar is pathetic, has one small strip of snow from south to north and thats it, not even width of NJ.

That was not the storm. It was enhanced precip ahead of the main event.
Yeah I see that now, hehe havent been following closely my bad.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 03, 2021 12:57 pm

Never been high on this event, and I won’t beat a dead horse after this post, but beware of low-level divergence beneath and south of your mid-level low tracks. Best precipitation/snow should be north/west of this area, which looks to be along and even slight north of the NY/Pa border in our forecast area. Even there, I think only 2-3” will max out most places based on decaying lift/poor snow growth. We will certainly see, but it’s certainly a fun battle between friends Very Happy oo also, sun has been in and out down here for the last two hours lol pretty tranquil “winter” day with temps nearing 50 haha Brick GFS Model

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:33 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Never been high on this event, and I won’t beat a dead horse after this post, but beware of low-level divergence beneath and south of your mid-level low tracks. Best precipitation/snow should be north/west of this area, which looks to be along and even slight north of the NY/Pa border in our forecast area. Even there, I think only 2-3” will max out most places based on decaying lift/poor snow growth. We will certainly see, but it’s certainly a fun battle between friends Very Happy oo also, sun has been in and out down here for the last two hours lol pretty tranquil “winter” day with temps nearing 50 haha Brick GFS Model

wow, that warm? We have been in solid cloud cover here in Bergen County with temp at 34* and holding. Got a nice dusting earlier.

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

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Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:43 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Never been high on this event, and I won’t beat a dead horse after this post, but beware of low-level divergence beneath and south of your mid-level low tracks. Best precipitation/snow should be north/west of this area, which looks to be along and even slight north of the NY/Pa border in our forecast area. Even there, I think only 2-3” will max out most places based on decaying lift/poor snow growth. We will certainly see, but it’s certainly a fun battle between friends Very Happy oo also, sun has been in and out down here for the last two hours lol pretty tranquil “winter” day with temps nearing 50 haha Brick GFS Model

wow, that warm? We have been in solid cloud cover here in Bergen County with temp at 34* and holding. Got a nice dusting earlier.

Regrettably haha KACY currently 48°. On an east-northeast wind coming off water that’s still near 50°, it makes sense lol

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Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:50 pm

30 degrees and snowing lightly with a coating at 2:50 pm. Must be because the Giants are winning and the Jets are tied.


Last edited by dkodgis on Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:03 pm

Rb you live on a sand bar in a bathtub of warmth my man. LOL You do not have to be high on this event now one really was - we just went from a week out of warmth to a wintry event brother - beats the last 2 winters kid. 2-3 more inches that what we had. Glass half filled!
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JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 3 925mb
850 COld
JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 3 850mb


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by essexcountypete Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:10 pm

34 and light drizzle in Bloomfield.
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Post by hyde345 Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:14 pm

32 with steady light snow, coating.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:19 pm

35.1* and light drizzle, so close for me and mugsy....

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:31 pm

@amugs wrote:Rb you live on a sand bar in a bathtub of warmth my man. LOL You do not have to be high on this event now one really was - we just went from a week out of warmth to a wintry event brother - beats the last 2 winters kid. 2-3 more inches that what we had. Glass half filled!
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JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 3 925mb
850 COld
JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 3 850mb


So true, mugsy.......I’m convinced if I moved to central Canada I’d still find a snow hole, though lmaooooo

All I’m saying is, I wouldn’t expect the 2-3” unless you’re around the latitude of the NY/PA border (or north of it), as I think that’s where the most overlap between snow growth, forcing, and favorable thermals will be. South of the there, I think generally lighter, spottier, mixed precip. That’s all.

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Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:47 pm

Got back to Albany last night. Some light snow here at the moment.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:54 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Rb you live on a sand bar in a bathtub of warmth my man. LOL You do not have to be high on this event now one really was - we just went from a week out of warmth to a wintry event brother - beats the last 2 winters kid. 2-3 more inches that what we had. Glass half filled!
925 Cold
JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 3 925mb
850 COld
JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 3 850mb


So true, mugsy.......I’m convinced if I moved to central Canada I’d still find a snow hole, though lmaooooo

All I’m saying is, I wouldn’t expect the 2-3” unless you’re around the latitude of the NY/PA border (or north of it), as I think that’s where the most overlap between snow growth, forcing, and favorable thermals will be. South of the there, I think generally lighter, spottier, mixed precip. That’s all.

Got ya brother!!! R?S Line going to be somewhere around I 78. I'll take 2-3" and run to teh bank my man!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:17 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Rb you live on a sand bar in a bathtub of warmth my man. LOL You do not have to be high on this event now one really was - we just went from a week out of warmth to a wintry event brother - beats the last 2 winters kid. 2-3 more inches that what we had. Glass half filled!
925 Cold
JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 3 925mb
850 COld
JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 3 850mb


So true, mugsy.......I’m convinced if I moved to central Canada I’d still find a snow hole, though lmaooooo

All I’m saying is, I wouldn’t expect the 2-3” unless you’re around the latitude of the NY/PA border (or north of it), as I think that’s where the most overlap between snow growth, forcing, and favorable thermals will be. South of the there, I think generally lighter, spottier, mixed precip. That’s all.

I tend to agree north of Scranton to Binghamton may approach 5" with this. I'd say I84 and NW NJ probably 2 or 3.

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Post by Grselig Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:28 pm

Heard thunder a few minutes ago.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:34 pm

@Grselig wrote:Heard thunder a few minutes ago.

Oof, this hurts haha what was the precip type when it happened??

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Post by Grselig Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:52 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Grselig wrote:Heard thunder a few minutes ago.

Oof, this hurts haha what was the precip type when it happened??

freezing drizzle!
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:03 pm

Oh wow, that’s the first I’ve ever heard of that in this area! Of course, I’ve still yet to experience thunder with ANY form of frozen precipitation :’( but I’m glad you got to enjoy it!! Haha

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Post by Grselig Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:07 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Oh wow, that’s the first I’ve ever heard of that in this area! Of course, I’ve still yet to experience thunder with ANY form of frozen precipitation :’( but I’m glad you got to enjoy it!! Haha

Yes. It was weird. Took the dog out and heard a boom. Sounded like thunder but did not know for sure and was concerned about something serious. Then a lightning warning popped up on the phone. It was very cool
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:22 pm

Rb, welcome to the Shore! From the Hook to the Cape, this is an awesome and unique micro climate.The moderating effect of the ocean current makes for less extreme and more really comfortable surface temps all year long and also the potential for extreme weather events I think is still quite potent here, perhaps even more so than the other surrounding areas.

As a total snow weenie, it’s a tough pill to swallow that the trade off is a 95% to 5% ratio in favor of the moderation. 🙁 For 3 winters in a row, it’s been cutter-cutter-cutter, hugger! All it takes is one, but today wasn’t it. And truthfully, today the moderation actually helped. The high 40s and rain felt a lot better than high 30s and rain would have.

Hoping some of you got or get a good dumping today, and then...I’m just gonna pray that rb gonna tell us all how the set up for the 9th looks GREAT!!!

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Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:09 pm

Here at 6:05 pm, 31 degrees and light snow. The driveway and grass have a coating. Maybe there is a half inch. Maybe there will be an inch or so if it keeps snowing until 2 am. Whatever it will be, it is a pleasure to see some snow falling. Very pleasant, indeed.

Everyone, be safe.
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