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JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:25 pm

Doing some quick and dirty verifications, looks like Frank was right with the amounts, actually even low in the best banding, but was too far south and east with the max snowfall axis. I was definitely too low with the amounts, but had the snowfall axis pretty much pegged, and Scott was similar to me with the amounts, but similar to Frank with the snowfall axis. The event isn’t over, but as of now thats what it’s looking like. The power of aggregate dendrites lol areas along the NY/PA probably will end with a foot by the time it’s over, right where Heehaw mentioned - north of Scranton and then along I-81.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:27 pm

As of now my parents are about the only ones near I-84 reporting as much as they have currently, between 4-5”. As soon as you get off the mountain, it’s cut in half, at least. Pretty incredible we are talking about such an elevation-dependent system in the climatological heart of winter Sad

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:28 pm

Annoyingly close

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 89484410

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:34 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Doing some quick and dirty verifications, looks like Frank was right with the amounts, actually even low in the best banding, but was too far south and east with the max snowfall axis. I was definitely too low with the amounts, but had the snowfall axis pretty much pegged, and Scott was similar to me with the amounts, but similar to Frank with the snowfall axis. The event isn’t over, but as of now thats what it’s looking like. The power of aggregate dendrites lol areas along the NY/PA probably will end with a foot by the time it’s over, right where Heehaw mentioned - north of Scranton and then along I-81.

Can’t be wrong with phrases like “a couple to a few inches south to north”. Lol looks like I will nail it.

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 4dde4010

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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by Vinnydula Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:42 pm

Going over to all snow 32.7
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:43 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Doing some quick and dirty verifications, looks like Frank was right with the amounts, actually even low in the best banding, but was too far south and east with the max snowfall axis. I was definitely too low with the amounts, but had the snowfall axis pretty much pegged, and Scott was similar to me with the amounts, but similar to Frank with the snowfall axis. The event isn’t over, but as of now thats what it’s looking like. The power of aggregate dendrites lol areas along the NY/PA probably will end with a foot by the time it’s over, right where Heehaw mentioned - north of Scranton and then along I-81.

Can’t be wrong with phrases like “a couple to a few inches south to north”. Lol looks like I will nail it.

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 4dde4010

Only for that snapshot........you miss all of our Pa and northern/central NY State members though, so if interpolated, you’re right there with Frank and me tongue

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:55 pm

I’ve gotta be honest, though, and admit that I definitely have a bias of underplaying the role of even the slightest mid-level energy during the winter in the presence of any anomalous moisture lol definitely did not expect to see as nice of a deformation banding signature with this as we have/still are seeing. I thought there would be an attempt, but given lack of adequate upper-level support (jet dynamics), I didn’t think it would be enough to support such a defined deformation axis during a low-level center handoff and generally lackluster isentropic lift. Quite the learning experience, for sure.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 03, 2021 7:05 pm

33.1* snow, sleet and freezing rain mix, going to be fun...

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Post by 1190ftalt Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:09 pm

3 inches of Snow in Stillwater NJ At 1190 feet altitude, temperature is 31 and it is Lightly snowing now .
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:41 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I’ve gotta be honest, though, and admit that I definitely have a bias of underplaying the role of even the slightest mid-level energy during the winter in the presence of any anomalous moisture lol definitely did not expect to see as nice of a deformation banding signature with this as we have/still are seeing. I thought there would be an attempt, but given lack of adequate upper-level support (jet dynamics), I didn’t think it would be enough to support such a defined deformation axis during a low-level center handoff and generally lackluster isentropic lift. Quite the learning experience, for sure.

One noticeable trend over the last couple of days is the track and strength of the upper level low. GFS had it elongated over upstate/central NY to now NEPA and consolidated PvA.

Yesterdays GFS:

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_7

Today’s GFS:

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_3

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:42 pm

@1190ftalt wrote:3 inches of Snow in Stillwater NJ At 1190 feet altitude, temperature is 31 and it is Lightly snowing now .

Thanks for the observation! Nice little event for you Smile

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:57 pm

Friend in Vernon report 3.5" so far.
Nice icy mix here at 33*. Freind in PR reporting icy roads on the hill by Montvale.
Ground coated here.


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Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:17 pm

A little over 3 inches now at 9:15 pm. 30 degrees and holding
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 03, 2021 10:15 pm

I was just out on a call, roads are a little slushy from a mix of just about everything. Hope it doesn't get too much colder and it freezes over tonight. 33.4* at the moment.

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Post by dkodgis Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:21 am

Surprising. Up here we got our six. It is 2:30 am and 30 degrees. Still snowing lightly
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Post by Math23x7 Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:57 am

As I mentioned, I returned to Albany Saturday night just in time for this snow system. Just over an hour ago, I measured 3.4” of snow and is was still coming down, albeit lightly. While this certainly does not meet the criteria for a significant snowstorm, this had one key factor that made this breathtaking: there has been no wind , which has allowed the snow to gently accumulate onto the trees. It’s not too much to pull down the limbs and it’s not fall/spring where the trees have leaves. As this image I took shows, it’s quite a nice site:

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 5b3bfd10

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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:15 am

Eyeballing maybe 2-2.5 inches here but will wait for final trained spotter report.Clear, no wind, 31 degrees.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:22 am

Nice little event for those up north Smile

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 Capture

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:29 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Nice little event for those up north Smile

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 Capture

It was a very satisfying snowfall IMBY. Stuck to all surfaces and fun to walk in!

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:32 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I’ve gotta be honest, though, and admit that I definitely have a bias of underplaying the role of even the slightest mid-level energy during the winter in the presence of any anomalous moisture lol definitely did not expect to see as nice of a deformation banding signature with this as we have/still are seeing. I thought there would be an attempt, but given lack of adequate upper-level support (jet dynamics), I didn’t think it would be enough to support such a defined deformation axis during a low-level center handoff and generally lackluster isentropic lift. Quite the learning experience, for sure.

One noticeable trend over the last couple of days is the track and strength of the upper level low. GFS had it elongated over upstate/central NY to now NEPA and consolidated PvA.

Yesterdays GFS:

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_7

Today’s GFS:

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_3

This is actually a really good observation. We can endlessly speculate as to why that turned out to be the case, but I wonder if slowed flow from NAO had a lot to do with it. Granted, it wasn’t optimally placed for us, but I think it could be argued that it still did its work. Just postulating, because we’ll never really know haha

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:36 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I’ve gotta be honest, though, and admit that I definitely have a bias of underplaying the role of even the slightest mid-level energy during the winter in the presence of any anomalous moisture lol definitely did not expect to see as nice of a deformation banding signature with this as we have/still are seeing. I thought there would be an attempt, but given lack of adequate upper-level support (jet dynamics), I didn’t think it would be enough to support such a defined deformation axis during a low-level center handoff and generally lackluster isentropic lift. Quite the learning experience, for sure.

One noticeable trend over the last couple of days is the track and strength of the upper level low. GFS had it elongated over upstate/central NY to now NEPA and consolidated PvA.

Yesterdays GFS:

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_7

Today’s GFS:

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_3

This is actually a really good observation. We can endlessly speculate as to why that turned out to be the case, but I wonder if slowed flow from NAO had a lot to do with it. Granted, it wasn’t optimally placed for us, but I think it could be argued that it still did its work. Just postulating, because we’ll never really know haha

My guess is it did have to do with the NAO state and the departing storm moving out slower than modeled which blocked things up just a bit more than 24 hours previously modeled.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:38 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Nice little event for those up north Smile

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 Capture

This map seems a bit suspect to me, knowing that Binghamton was placed under a special advisory for several hours last night due to 1-2”/hr rates. And they have less than my parents? Idk ‘bout that lol btw, Frank, 4” on the nose at my parents’, ~2” in Skytop, Stroudsburg, and about 1” at the Delaware Water Gap. Had less than an inch starting near the Route 31/46 intersection, all the way to the Gap. Only reason I know is because after working last night I drove to my parents’ lmao

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:46 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Nice little event for those up north Smile

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 Capture

This map seems a bit suspect to me, knowing that Binghamton was placed under a special advisory for several hours last night due to 1-2”/hr rates. And they have less than my parents? Idk ‘bout that lol btw, Frank, 4” on the nose at my parents’, ~2” in Skytop, Stroudsburg, and about 1” at the Delaware Water Gap. Had less than an inch starting near the Route 31/46 intersection, all the way to the Gap. Only reason I know is because after working last night I drove to my parents’ lmao

Haha, just could not resist, huh?

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:49 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Nice little event for those up north Smile

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 Capture

This map seems a bit suspect to me, knowing that Binghamton was placed under a special advisory for several hours last night due to 1-2”/hr rates. And they have less than my parents? Idk ‘bout that lol btw, Frank, 4” on the nose at my parents’, ~2” in Skytop, Stroudsburg, and about 1” at the Delaware Water Gap. Had less than an inch starting near the Route 31/46 intersection, all the way to the Gap. Only reason I know is because after working last night I drove to my parents’ lmao

RB Binghamton officially picked up < 4".  The surface was marginal at best even at 1k' elevation.

JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021 - Page 4 Bingha10

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:55 am


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