JAN 3rd Storm: I-84 First Snow of 2021

Rb, welcome to the Shore! From the Hook to the Cape, this is an awesome and unique micro climate.The moderating effect of the ocean current makes for less extreme and more really comfortable surface temps all year long and also the potential for extreme weather events I think is still quite potent here, perhaps even more so than the other surrounding areas.

As a total snow weenie, it’s a tough pill to swallow that the trade off is a 95% to 5% ratio in favor of the moderation. For 3 winters in a row, it’s been cutter-cutter-cutter, hugger! All it takes is one, but today wasn’t it. And truthfully, today the moderation actually helped. The high 40s and rain felt a lot better than high 30s and rain would have.

Hoping some of you got or get a good dumping today, and then...I’m just gonna pray that rb gonna tell us all how the set up for the 9th looks GREAT!!!

Doing some quick and dirty verifications, looks like Frank was right with the amounts, actually even low in the best banding, but was too far south and east with the max snowfall axis. I was definitely too low with the amounts, but had the snowfall axis pretty much pegged, and Scott was similar to me with the amounts, but similar to Frank with the snowfall axis. The event isn’t over, but as of now thats what it’s looking like. The power of aggregate dendrites lol areas along the NY/PA probably will end with a foot by the time it’s over, right where Heehaw mentioned - north of Scranton and then along I-81.

As of now my parents are about the only ones near I-84 reporting as much as they have currently, between 4-5”. As soon as you get off the mountain, it’s cut in half, at least. Pretty incredible we are talking about such an elevation-dependent system in the climatological heart of winter

Going over to all snow 32.7

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Doing some quick and dirty verifications, looks like Frank was right with the amounts, actually even low in the best banding, but was too far south and east with the max snowfall axis. I was definitely too low with the amounts, but had the snowfall axis pretty much pegged, and Scott was similar to me with the amounts, but similar to Frank with the snowfall axis. The event isn’t over, but as of now thats what it’s looking like. The power of aggregate dendrites lol areas along the NY/PA probably will end with a foot by the time it’s over, right where Heehaw mentioned - north of Scranton and then along I-81.

Can’t be wrong with phrases like “a couple to a few inches south to north”. Lol looks like I will nail it.

Only for that snapshot........you miss all of our Pa and northern/central NY State members though, so if interpolated, you’re right there with Frank and me

I’ve gotta be honest, though, and admit that I definitely have a bias of underplaying the role of even the slightest mid-level energy during the winter in the presence of any anomalous moisture lol definitely did not expect to see as nice of a deformation banding signature with this as we have/still are seeing. I thought there would be an attempt, but given lack of adequate upper-level support (jet dynamics), I didn’t think it would be enough to support such a defined deformation axis during a low-level center handoff and generally lackluster isentropic lift. Quite the learning experience, for sure.

3 inches of Snow in Stillwater NJ At 1190 feet altitude, temperature is 31 and it is Lightly snowing now .

rb924119 wrote:I’ve gotta be honest, though, and admit that I definitely have a bias of underplaying the role of even the slightest mid-level energy during the winter in the presence of any anomalous moisture lol definitely did not expect to see as nice of a deformation banding signature with this as we have/still are seeing. I thought there would be an attempt, but given lack of adequate upper-level support (jet dynamics), I didn’t think it would be enough to support such a defined deformation axis during a low-level center handoff and generally lackluster isentropic lift. Quite the learning experience, for sure.

One noticeable trend over the last couple of days is the track and strength of the upper level low. GFS had it elongated over upstate/central NY to now NEPA and consolidated PvA.

Yesterdays GFS:



Today’s GFS:

1190ftalt wrote:3 inches of Snow in Stillwater NJ At 1190 feet altitude, temperature is 31 and it is Lightly snowing now .

Thanks for the observation! Nice little event for you

Friend in Vernon report 3.5" so far.
Nice icy mix here at 33*. Freind in PR reporting icy roads on the hill by Montvale.
Ground coated here.

As I mentioned, I returned to Albany Saturday night just in time for this snow system. Just over an hour ago, I measured 3.4” of snow and is was still coming down, albeit lightly. While this certainly does not meet the criteria for a significant snowstorm, this had one key factor that made this breathtaking: there has been no wind , which has allowed the snow to gently accumulate onto the trees. It’s not too much to pull down the limbs and it’s not fall/spring where the trees have leaves. As this image I took shows, it’s quite a nice site:

Nice little event for those up north

Frank_Wx wrote:Nice little event for those up north

It was a very satisfying snowfall IMBY. Stuck to all surfaces and fun to walk in!

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I’ve gotta be honest, though, and admit that I definitely have a bias of underplaying the role of even the slightest mid-level energy during the winter in the presence of any anomalous moisture lol definitely did not expect to see as nice of a deformation banding signature with this as we have/still are seeing. I thought there would be an attempt, but given lack of adequate upper-level support (jet dynamics), I didn’t think it would be enough to support such a defined deformation axis during a low-level center handoff and generally lackluster isentropic lift. Quite the learning experience, for sure.

One noticeable trend over the last couple of days is the track and strength of the upper level low. GFS had it elongated over upstate/central NY to now NEPA and consolidated PvA.

Yesterdays GFS:



Today’s GFS:

This is actually a really good observation. We can endlessly speculate as to why that turned out to be the case, but I wonder if slowed flow from NAO had a lot to do with it. Granted, it wasn’t optimally placed for us, but I think it could be argued that it still did its work. Just postulating, because we’ll never really know haha

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I’ve gotta be honest, though, and admit that I definitely have a bias of underplaying the role of even the slightest mid-level energy during the winter in the presence of any anomalous moisture lol definitely did not expect to see as nice of a deformation banding signature with this as we have/still are seeing. I thought there would be an attempt, but given lack of adequate upper-level support (jet dynamics), I didn’t think it would be enough to support such a defined deformation axis during a low-level center handoff and generally lackluster isentropic lift. Quite the learning experience, for sure.

One noticeable trend over the last couple of days is the track and strength of the upper level low. GFS had it elongated over upstate/central NY to now NEPA and consolidated PvA.

Yesterdays GFS:



Today’s GFS:

This is actually a really good observation. We can endlessly speculate as to why that turned out to be the case, but I wonder if slowed flow from NAO had a lot to do with it. Granted, it wasn’t optimally placed for us, but I think it could be argued that it still did its work. Just postulating, because we’ll never really know haha

My guess is it did have to do with the NAO state and the departing storm moving out slower than modeled which blocked things up just a bit more than 24 hours previously modeled.

Frank_Wx wrote:Nice little event for those up north

This map seems a bit suspect to me, knowing that Binghamton was placed under a special advisory for several hours last night due to 1-2”/hr rates. And they have less than my parents? Idk ‘bout that lol btw, Frank, 4” on the nose at my parents’, ~2” in Skytop, Stroudsburg, and about 1” at the Delaware Water Gap. Had less than an inch starting near the Route 31/46 intersection, all the way to the Gap. Only reason I know is because after working last night I drove to my parents’ lmao

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Nice little event for those up north

This map seems a bit suspect to me, knowing that Binghamton was placed under a special advisory for several hours last night due to 1-2”/hr rates. And they have less than my parents? Idk ‘bout that lol btw, Frank, 4” on the nose at my parents’, ~2” in Skytop, Stroudsburg, and about 1” at the Delaware Water Gap. Had less than an inch starting near the Route 31/46 intersection, all the way to the Gap. Only reason I know is because after working last night I drove to my parents’ lmao

Haha, just could not resist, huh?

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Nice little event for those up north

This map seems a bit suspect to me, knowing that Binghamton was placed under a special advisory for several hours last night due to 1-2”/hr rates. And they have less than my parents? Idk ‘bout that lol btw, Frank, 4” on the nose at my parents’, ~2” in Skytop, Stroudsburg, and about 1” at the Delaware Water Gap. Had less than an inch starting near the Route 31/46 intersection, all the way to the Gap. Only reason I know is because after working last night I drove to my parents’ lmao

RB Binghamton officially picked up < 4".  The surface was marginal at best even at 1k' elevation.

2.7 inches in Chester, Ny @LeeGoldbergABC7 @NWSNewYorkNY @famoros1 @nynjpaweather pic.twitter.com/gMJKZ3Tjgt

— Northeast winter WX (@NEwinter_WX) January 4, 2021