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01/31 Possible Winter Storm

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Post by Irish Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:17 pm

@aiannone wrote:Primary is over OH at hr 84 compared to IL at 0z run same time

Is that better or worse?

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:17 pm

I think this is going to be a beautiful run for most of the desperate coastal peeps.
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:20 pm

At 21z Monday the surface low is southeast of the NJ coast and NJ is getting pounded with snow.
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:22 pm

Axis of heaviest snow to that point from Philly Metro to just south of NYC proper.
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:23 pm

The 500, 700, 850 Lows close off SOUTH of the region off the Delmarva/SNJ coast.
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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:24 pm

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 6 Pratep11

As it sits and spins I guess it just pumps in warm Atlantic air?
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:26 pm

Verbatim Euro is an 8-12" snowstorm from Susquehanna Valley of PA across Philly Metro through most of NJ and into NYC and LI. Areas further NW in NJ and just north of NYC metro are 4-8". Extreme SENJ gets some rain mixed so only a couple inches down there, but most on this forum are north of that line.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:33 pm

One run but good one for the coastal plain. Many more to go

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01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 6 Ecmwf-51
01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 6 Ecmwf-52

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:35 pm

Big picture: 12z Euro and 12z GFS very similar in development. Euro a little more bullish on snow totals but that's too much detail for this far out. Important thing is that both pop the low, surface and upper/mid-levels, just south of us.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:48 pm

Just looked at the Euro. Wow. Slow crawler mid level storm location very favorable for good CCB. Anyone from DC to ME is on serious threat for a lot of snow. The main take away is a bit better placement of the mid level LP. Quite honestly the storm didn't even consolidate that well. But the slow nature made the amounts very high. It might be the best option to keep it not too consolidated and slow moving...

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:58 pm

What has me most interested in this storm is the depth of the 500 mb trough.  As the trough digs deeper the ULL cannot move quickly. Probably get a bunch of mid level low regenerations with this.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 6 Eurotr10

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:23 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:What has me most interested in this storm is the depth of the 500 mb trough.  As the trough digs deeper the ULL cannot move quickly.  Probably get a bunch of mid level low regenerations with this.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 6 Eurotr10

This is gorgeous. I could cry. Madonna mia!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:40 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:What has me most interested in this storm is the depth of the 500 mb trough.  As the trough digs deeper the ULL cannot move quickly.  Probably get a bunch of mid level low regenerations with this.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 6 Eurotr10

This is gorgeous. I could cry. Madonna mia!
low regeneration? I think this first time I heard of that. Is that kinda like a eyeball replacement cycle in a hurricane where it weakens then gets stronger? Loosely based of course.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:42 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:What has me most interested in this storm is the depth of the 500 mb trough.  As the trough digs deeper the ULL cannot move quickly.  Probably get a bunch of mid level low regenerations with this.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 6 Eurotr10
if it's as slow as shown why are we seeing 6 to 12 or 12+ in some spots. I would think it would be Sig more in a 24 to 36 HR period.
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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:53 pm

JMan, I think Hee Haw addressed that a bit ago. But it's been a busy few hours here, so easy to miss it too!

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 6 Jman10

Can it strengthen and meander off the coast at the same time??

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Post by Irish Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:55 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:What has me most interested in this storm is the depth of the 500 mb trough.  As the trough digs deeper the ULL cannot move quickly.  Probably get a bunch of mid level low regenerations with this.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 6 Eurotr10
if it's as slow as shown why are we seeing 6 to 12 or 12+ in some spots. I would think it would be Sig more in a 24 to 36 HR period.

That was my question too. We can see a foot of snow from a 12 hour system. If the placement is so great with this low and it'll be rocking for 24-36 hours, shouldn't we be snowed in with a couple feet?

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:57 pm

Irish, I relayed Hee Haws answer to that as you were posting. Look up 1 post.

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:59 pm

Not 'consolidating' means lower qpf and/or snow rates i'm assuming, thus lowering the totals.

My experience at least half of all well formed coastal lows intensify more than forecast even in the short range. I pray that's our biggest issue with this storm lol

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Post by Irish Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:10 pm

Temp predictions seem to be warming for Monday, basically hovering around 34-35 degrees around me all day.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:13 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:Not 'consolidating' means lower qpf and/or snow rates i'm assuming, thus lowering the totals.

My experience at least half of all well formed coastal lows intensify more than forecast even in the short range. I pray that's our biggest issue with this storm lol
We shall see, but from a current stand point its looking good for most on the board, might be some concern for NYC immediate area and jersey coast as Euro showed a lot of mixing but I think its go be cold enough and if this system can generate extra cold we would really be in business. I am fine with 6-12, honestly anything more would be fun at first but digging out and finding street parking for weeks is a nightmare here.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:15 pm

@Irish wrote:Temp predictions seem to be warming for Monday, basically hovering around 34-35 degrees around me all day.
Temps almost always do not pan out exactly as forecasted, not sure how close in we have to be to be more sure but being only thursday I think theres potential to change, and you wouldnt need a huge change, and remember its go be freaking cold before that so the3 ground will hopefully harden up and be a rock.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:16 pm

@Irish wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:What has me most interested in this storm is the depth of the 500 mb trough.  As the trough digs deeper the ULL cannot move quickly.  Probably get a bunch of mid level low regenerations with this.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 6 Eurotr10
if it's as slow as shown why are we seeing 6 to 12 or 12+ in some spots. I would think it would be Sig more in a 24 to 36 HR period.

That was my question too.  We can see a foot of snow from a 12 hour system.  If the placement is so great with this low and it'll be rocking for 24-36 hours, shouldn't we be snowed in with a couple feet?

I would highly recommend everyone keep their expectations in check. Even if this was Saturday evening I would would not feel comfortable with BIG snows until game time. So much has to go right and so much can go wrong. I'm keeping my expectations at a moderate event until I'm certain of otherwise. But that's just my personality...

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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:29 pm

Keep in mind when thinking of snow rates that 1" of snow an hour is a moderate to heavy snow. So it's entirely consistent for 12 hours of non-stop moderate to heavy snow to produce a foot.  And since snow intensities vary throughout a storm and usually start light before building to max intensity you could have several hours of moderate to heavy snow and still only get about a foot in an 18-24 hour storm. And the heaviest rates with this storm might start several hours into the event when the secondary low develop, not the front-end snows which may be lighter at the outset.
Also, I still say be cautious with duration on this storm. It is very common for storm duration to, speed up, as the event gets closer.
As Heehaw says though, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Way too early to obsess over exact snow amounts. We won't be able to discuss those with any degree of certainty until Saturday at the earliest.
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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:34 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@SENJsnowman wrote:Not 'consolidating' means lower qpf and/or snow rates i'm assuming, thus lowering the totals.

My experience at least half of all well formed coastal lows intensify more than forecast even in the short range. I pray that's our biggest issue with this storm lol
We shall see, but from a current stand point its looking good for most on the board, might be some concern for NYC immediate area and jersey coast as Euro showed a lot of mixing but I think its go be cold enough and if this system can generate extra cold we would really be in business.  I am fine with 6-12, honestly anything more would be fun at first but digging out and finding street parking for weeks is a nightmare here.

I'm fully expecting to go into Sunday with a Jersey Shorecast for a sloppy 1-3" and a whole bunch of rain. I'm still kinda convinced the track of the storm will be hugging the coast, so the cold won't really matter. But as of now, it looks like a very snowy solution is still a totally plausible outcome for us. I think I saw a few hours ago, we are between 30-40% likely to see 6" or more. That's a massively high percentage for these parts! And it still translates directly to a 60-70% chance of not getting that! lol

But, make no mistake, this is the best position 72 hours out that Ocean County has seen in 3 years. That could ALL change at 6 pm. lol But for now, we just keep tracking...

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Post by mwilli Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:36 pm

good point don't wanna get disappointed if this thing bombs out....btw 25 pound bag of rock salt at home depot $8.95

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