01/31 Possible Winter Storm

I'm glad Steve D feels like he can sort out the details on this one.  I think it's rather impossible.

heehaw453 wrote:Canadian global has some serious CCB.  It's on the Canadian Site CMC now.

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Low seems to get to right around Pittsburgh then transfer off the coast. Is that the biggest difference in what RB is saying versus what this is showing? That RB says the low gets farther north originally which would force the transfer closer to NYC and thus bring in warm air versus the Canadian which has the low stop father south resulting in a transfer closer to the benchmark? Or am I off base?

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Canadian global has some serious CCB.  It's on the Canadian Site CMC now.

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Low seems to get to right around Pittsburgh then transfer off the coast. Is that the biggest difference in what RB is saying versus what this is showing? That RB says the low gets farther north originally which would force the transfer closer to NYC and thus bring in warm air versus the Canadian which has the low stop father south resulting in a transfer closer to the benchmark? Or am I off base?

Pretty much. The further north and tucked the mid level lows get the more warm air. If you get the mid level lows to close to you then you dry slot or mix. Best place to be is NW of the mid levels as they are maturing.

12Z Ukie is a suppressed miss FWIW. Goes to show you the range of possibilities still on the table.

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Canadian global has some serious CCB.  It's on the Canadian Site CMC now.

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Low seems to get to right around Pittsburgh then transfer off the coast. Is that the biggest difference in what RB is saying versus what this is showing? That RB says the low gets farther north originally which would force the transfer closer to NYC and thus bring in warm air versus the Canadian which has the low stop father south resulting in a transfer closer to the benchmark? Or am I off base?

rb can correct me if I'm wrong, but in case he's away from the computer, yes pretty much. rb's take is that the blocking to our north will ease enough to let this come further north and then where it redevelops off the coast will be further north. Obviously this allows more warm air and more rain over southern to central NJ, but it also keeps the intense snows, generally north and west of the Low, north of NJ.

The GFS has the low develop south of the area and bomb out just south and east of us both keeping us cold (i.e. snowier) and allowing us to get in on the heaviest banding.

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Canadian global has some serious CCB.  It's on the Canadian Site CMC now.

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Low seems to get to right around Pittsburgh then transfer off the coast. Is that the biggest difference in what RB is saying versus what this is showing? That RB says the low gets farther north originally which would force the transfer closer to NYC and thus bring in warm air versus the Canadian which has the low stop father south resulting in a transfer closer to the benchmark? Or am I off base?

100% on point with your understanding

when will we see snow maps ?

we are doing schedule for next week monday looks questionable .

le88kb wrote:when will we see snow maps ?

we are doing schedule for next week monday looks questionable .

Monday and Tuesday could both be trouble.

Pretty formidable by WPC

amugs wrote:Pretty formidable by WPC

That's a 12-20" storm, unless a lot of that over NJ is rain, which could be the case if the Low ends ups a little further north than currently progged.

Hold onto your bootstraps ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, because the 12z EURO is about to make like a tumble weed and roll! Haha

And we're off!!

ohh boy:

rb924119 wrote:Hold onto your bootstraps ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, because the 12z EURO is about to make like a tumble weed and roll! Haha

OMG! rb is getting excited, what do I do, what do I do?!?!?

aiannone wrote:ohh boy:

I need about about 100 miles of a north shift to verify.I’ve got three days, frayed nerves, models making me look like a fool, and a little hope. GAME ON lmao

Am I correct in seeing at least a mild wiper effect back to the SE in all the 12z runs?

Irish wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Hold onto your bootstraps ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, because the 12z EURO is about to make like a tumble weed and roll! Haha

OMG!  rb is getting excited, what do I do, what do I do?!?!?  

It’s pretty much nervous energy at this point. My forecast is out, my money is on the table, the horse (forecast) I’m betting on is already at the gate. Time to ride the proverbial lightning to either death or glory!

EURO is delayed...

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO is delayed...

Weather bell is out to 48

Please post euro surface maps and snow maps when come in. I think most us don't have access and rb saying something in exclamation is titillating.

I have a serious question I think I'd be safe traveling to CT Sunday by looking at timing but what about my return on Tuesday? If I leave midday do you guys think roads mainly 95 will be clear? I'm honestly thinking I may not go anyways but looks like CT could get even more than here. Decisions decisions. I don't have decide till Sat night but any idea on timing of end to this. Lol

If I do go I'll give you reports from eastern CT if you want.

Not seeing any huge changes, upper level or surface through hour 60 of the Euro from prior run, but we're about to get into key time-frame now. So let's see what it spits out . . .

Sunday AM Euro has low over South-Central Illinois with the western ridge axis building on a line from AZ to western Montana. About same as last run to this point.

hr 66 has less amplification out from I think because the confluence a bit stronger

Primary is over OH at hr 84 compared to IL at 0z run same time

At hour 93 the secondary surface pops just south of the Delmarva.