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01/31 Possible Winter Storm

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:59 am

@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Canadian global has some serious CCB.  It's on the Canadian Site CMC now.

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Low seems to get to right around Pittsburgh then transfer off the coast. Is that the biggest difference in what RB is saying versus what this is showing? That RB says the low gets farther north originally which would force the transfer closer to NYC and thus bring in warm air versus the Canadian which has the low stop father south resulting in a transfer closer to the benchmark? Or am I off base?

Pretty much. The further north and tucked the mid level lows get the more warm air. If you get the mid level lows to close to you then you dry slot or mix. Best place to be is NW of the mid levels as they are maturing.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:00 pm

12Z Ukie is a suppressed miss FWIW. Goes to show you the range of possibilities still on the table.

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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:00 pm

@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Canadian global has some serious CCB.  It's on the Canadian Site CMC now.

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Low seems to get to right around Pittsburgh then transfer off the coast. Is that the biggest difference in what RB is saying versus what this is showing? That RB says the low gets farther north originally which would force the transfer closer to NYC and thus bring in warm air versus the Canadian which has the low stop father south resulting in a transfer closer to the benchmark? Or am I off base?

rb can correct me if I'm wrong, but in case he's away from the computer, yes pretty much. rb's take is that the blocking to our north will ease enough to let this come further north and then where it redevelops off the coast will be further north. Obviously this allows more warm air and more rain over southern to central NJ, but it also keeps the intense snows, generally north and west of the Low, north of NJ.

The GFS has the low develop south of the area and bomb out just south and east of us both keeping us cold (i.e. snowier) and allowing us to get in on the heaviest banding.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:01 pm

@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Canadian global has some serious CCB.  It's on the Canadian Site CMC now.

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Low seems to get to right around Pittsburgh then transfer off the coast. Is that the biggest difference in what RB is saying versus what this is showing? That RB says the low gets farther north originally which would force the transfer closer to NYC and thus bring in warm air versus the Canadian which has the low stop father south resulting in a transfer closer to the benchmark? Or am I off base?

100% on point with your understanding Smile

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Post by le88kb Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:09 pm

when will we see snow maps ?

we are doing schedule for next week monday looks questionable .
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Post by Irish Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:16 pm

@le88kb wrote:when will we see snow maps ?

we are doing schedule for next week monday looks questionable .

Monday and Tuesday could both be trouble.

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:21 pm

Pretty formidable by WPC

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 5 566028532_ScreenShot2021-01-28at12_04_55PM.png.c08c78a978a8225451d94dd08d6e12a5

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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:26 pm

@amugs wrote:Pretty formidable by WPC

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 5 566028532_ScreenShot2021-01-28at12_04_55PM.png.c08c78a978a8225451d94dd08d6e12a5

That's a 12-20" storm, unless a lot of that over NJ is rain, which could be the case if the Low ends ups a little further north than currently progged.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:44 pm

Hold onto your bootstraps ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, because the 12z EURO is about to make like a tumble weed and roll! Haha

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:51 pm

And we're off!!

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:53 pm

ohh boy:
01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 5 14365410
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Post by Irish Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:54 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Hold onto your bootstraps ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, because the 12z EURO is about to make like a tumble weed and roll! Haha

OMG! rb is getting excited, what do I do, what do I do?!?!?

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:58 pm

@aiannone wrote:ohh boy:
01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 5 14365410

I need about about 100 miles of a north shift to verify.I’ve got three days, frayed nerves, models making me look like a fool, and a little hope. GAME ON lmao

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:58 pm

Am I correct in seeing at least a mild wiper effect back to the SE in all the 12z runs?

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:00 pm

@Irish wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Hold onto your bootstraps ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, because the 12z EURO is about to make like a tumble weed and roll! Haha

OMG!  rb is getting excited, what do I do, what do I do?!?!?  

It’s pretty much nervous energy at this point. My forecast is out, my money is on the table, the horse (forecast) I’m betting on is already at the gate. Time to ride the proverbial lightning to either death or glory! lol!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:02 pm

EURO is delayed...

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:02 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO is delayed...

Weather bell is out to 48

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:03 pm

Please post euro surface maps and snow maps when come in. I think most us don't have access and rb saying something in exclamation is titillating.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:03 pm

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 5 Ecmwf-50

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:05 pm

I have a serious question I think I'd be safe traveling to CT Sunday by looking at timing but what about my return on Tuesday? If I leave midday do you guys think roads mainly 95 will be clear? I'm honestly thinking I may not go anyways but looks like CT could get even more than here. Decisions decisions. I don't have decide till Sat night but any idea on timing of end to this. Lol

If I do go I'll give you reports from eastern CT if you want.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:07 pm

Not seeing any huge changes, upper level or surface through hour 60 of the Euro from prior run, but we're about to get into key time-frame now. So let's see what it spits out . . .
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:11 pm

Sunday AM Euro has low over South-Central Illinois with the western ridge axis building on a line from AZ to western Montana. About same as last run to this point.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:12 pm

hr 66 has less amplification out from I think because the confluence a bit stronger

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 5 Sdgfsd10

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:14 pm

Primary is over OH at hr 84 compared to IL at 0z run same time
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:17 pm

At hour 93 the secondary surface pops just south of the Delmarva.
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