01/31 Possible Winter Storm

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:6z EURO

This would hurt, but at the same time it would be funny as hell. This would be the all time swing and miss for RB who is pretty spot on most of the time.

I still don't believe anything until tonights runs. I believe the energy involved is just getting sampled on shore today. It's strange that the last two years I've had two one foot storms in December and nothing more than 3 inches from any event in January through April. I was hopeful this could break that pattern. Maybe it will, I think we get a good handle on the late runs tonight.

I am far from being an expert like the model folks here, but this dense cold air was sure to be suppressing this storm somewhat though not like this model has.Hell, I will take the 6  inches at this point being ion the LHV.

It's all about the mid level vorticity and jet structure. A stronger short wave combats the confluence and raises heights over the coast. The jet structure will then dictate its exact path and axis of heavier snows.

Frank_Wx wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Frank I think your right.  Even still looking at satellites at least some of the energy is on the west coast now.  

Oh yea. The initialization itself is accurate. Just think the data being used is a snapshot of 6 or so hours back is all.

So maybe the 00z runs tonight will have it, but I always play conservative and say the next day which would be 12z.

So, the times of the model runs, 00z, 06z, etc. are based off of the data cycles. So, for example, this morning’s 12z runs, (which haven’t even been run yet, and it’s already technically 14z) will be based on the 12z data cycle, which includes the upper air sounding data retrieved from the weather balloons launched this morning at ~1030z. They launch them a bit early so that the balloons can run their full course and the data be retrieved, QC’d, and then sent over to DC for archiving/injection into the 12z suite initializations (by 12z). Basically, the models lag the times that they’re labeled by because those labels denote the data cycle that they’re based on, not when the models actually start coming out for us to look at. Does that make sense?

So far so good with the Nam. Primary is a bit north with the confluence in NE a bit weaker.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:6z EURO

This would hurt, but at the same time it would be funny as hell. This would be the all time swing and miss for RB who is pretty spot on most of the time.

I still don't believe anything until tonights runs. I believe the energy involved is just getting sampled on shore today. It's strange that the last two years I've had two one foot storms in December and nothing more than 3 inches from any event in January through April. I was hopeful this could break that pattern. Maybe it will, I think we get a good handle on the late runs tonight.

It wouldn’t be good, I must admit, but it also would be the first or last lol it’s Mother Nature, you won’t win every battle, but you can try by doing the best you can. The key is to learn from the battles you lose. A forecast is simply an educated guess, and since none of us can control the weather, we’re bound to have bad guesses haha

Also, if I was actually forecasting for a professional outlet, my forecasts would be much more fluid than they are now, where I usually only have time to post once or twice before the event lol but, I do try to at least get as close as possible with my one or two posts haha

NAM is inline with other guidance at hour 63. Meaning storm is more consolidated. The 800 mb low is forming in southern Delmarva area and looks rather tucked at that latitude. That is usually a favorable area for us for development. Take it FWIW as it's the NAM out of its range.

nutleyblizzard wrote:So far so good with the Nam. Primary is a bit north with the confluence in NE a bit weaker.

Music to my ears haha keep singing lmao

This is such a delicate balance here. The maturation process of the storm and the capture of the ULL determines whether or not this thing can stall at our latitude. Basically if all things go right this will easily exceed 1' for many locations.

Good luck trying to call that now.

Nam came north. Nice CCB band set up too. The main positive I saw was the weaker confluence to the north allowing the low come north. Hope it’s onto something. Good start to the 12Z guidance.

NAM the destructor..............Baby Bear for MOST(edited)

sroc4 wrote:NAM the destructor..............Baby Bear for MOST(edited)

Dont take verbatim as adjustments still likely But IMBY is nice.  Still going strong too

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:NAM the destructor..............Baby Bear for MOST(edited)

Dont take verbatim as adjustments still likely But IMBY is nice.  Still going strong too

Probably getting more CCB to the west and NW if that run kept going as the ULL stalled.

Big strides aloft on the NAM



It is not a CMC/RGEM, but it is still adjusting. The jet streak is now over northern NE and the trough does its best to go neutral, but verbatim it stays positive on the 12z NAM. Another positive trend with the NAM and the trough should go neutral/negative. 

heehaw453 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:NAM the destructor..............Baby Bear for MOST(edited)

Dont take verbatim as adjustments still likely But IMBY is nice.  Still going strong too

Probably getting more CCB to the west and NW if that run kept going as the ULL stalled.

yea. Extrapolated there was Roidzilla potential there depending on how that Low behaved

NAM track and upper levels looks pretty good. Definitely puts the Euro in the outlier camp for the moment. Much like the GFS though, it looks like if you're in the sweet spot (which luckily MOST of the board would be on that) you get prodigious snow totals, but if you're outside of that, much more modest totals and sharper cutoffs to the northwest.

Like Frank alluded to the trough going slightly negative is important to throw moisture back further west. But one thing at a time let's just get this baby to consolidate and move up first...

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:NAM the destructor..............Baby Bear for MOST(edited)

Dont take verbatim as adjustments still likely But IMBY is nice.  Still going strong too

Probably getting more CCB to the west and NW if that run kept going as the ULL stalled.

yea.  Extrapolated there was Roidzilla potential there depending on how that Low behaved

Yeah for long island and jersey shore and parts of NE NJ, but id take what it shows (guessing theres a bit more not shown if extrapolated out but looks like on that last frame its winding down on the western end., but yeah you would jackpot big time, not often you see all of LI in the main zone.

We are seeing the waffling of the models and the major SE corrections then the NW corrections are coming into play. AS CP said I said that the energy is coming onshore this morning so by tonight's runs we'll have a full sampling.
I am swimming in the Cautiously optimistic optimistic pool right now.
The rollercoaster we ride tracking!

Yup, LOVING the changes aloft on the NAM. Next.

What a waste of a ton of snow over the ocean too!! Move it a bit north but keep same people in the game, ocean doesn't need snow lol

A zoom tonight perhaps? Or wait till tomorrow? Or not at all

jmanley32 wrote:What a waste of a ton of snow over the ocean too!! Move it a bit north but keep same people in the game, ocean doesn't need snow lol

Indeed. In fact, I'm quite sure, those out in the ocean would prefer NOT to have that snow. See: Perfect Storm. lol

NAM 700/850 are optimal position for us in this region

ICON is gonna end up further suppressed just looking at H5. Confluence is trending stronger/in the wrong direction there.

rb924119 wrote:ICON is gonna end up further suppressed just looking at H5. Confluence is trending stronger/in the wrong direction there.

Do you really look at the ICON with any real credence? I only look for S's and G's

rb924119 wrote:ICON is gonna end up further suppressed just looking at H5. Confluence is trending stronger/in the wrong direction there.

It's a wonky model, but 12Z looked very similar to me. Albeit I don't have detailed access to the other layers for better analysis.

So Icon actually was a great run. Low well placed, 500 energy just southeast of NJ and buries almost the entire state as well as NYC and LI under 10-20" of snow. But then again, it is the ICON. lol

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:ICON is gonna end up further suppressed just looking at H5. Confluence is trending stronger/in the wrong direction there.

Do you really look at the ICON with any real credence?  I only look for S's and G's

No haha but it’s been discussed in previous cycles so I was just following past precedent haha