01/31 Possible Winter Storm

So Icon actually was a great run. Low well placed, 500 energy just southeast of NJ and buries almost the entire state as well as NYC and LI under 10-20" of snow. But then again, it is the ICON. lol

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:ICON is gonna end up further suppressed just looking at H5. Confluence is trending stronger/in the wrong direction there.

Do you really look at the ICON with any real credence?  I only look for S's and G's

No haha but it’s been discussed in previous cycles so I was just following past precedent haha

I would note though that yesterday the 12z and 18z ICON was north so this was a southward trend (ie. suppression did show itself on this run a bit, but in a good way). So there's that to consider. But it's still, the ICON.

12z ICON

The phase on the Icon is unreal. Trough ends up south of the Bahamas

Rgem is south. Crushes delaware into central nj

Let's see where the 12z GFS takes us . . .

12z GFS is running. Here is a 48 hour 500mb trend map valid Saturday morning. The blues over the northeast suggest even lower heights, likely due to the PV/Confluence which is NOT good for our storm trying to come north on Sunday/Monday. Bad trend, but let's see if the GFS recovers

algae888 wrote:Rgem is south. Crushes delaware into central nj

Yup. Bad run for most.

The GFS is now recovering from the lower heights over NE by showing higher heights valid Sunday night as the PVA appears to be much stronger and the trough trying to go more neutral faster.

It's not going to make it. Likely will show something similar or even more south of its 6z run.

Not having GFS nor EURO is not good news. Very hard to spin that.

If EURO holds or trends even further south this one is in deep trouble

YeH, confluence isn’t playing nicely right now at all.

GFS is a SNJ-CNJ-LI special

6"+

GFS is confused with where the Low is. Not sure Im putting much stock in it ATM

This kinda looks like convective feedback error...

Frank_Wx wrote:This kinda looks like convective feedback error...

I beat ya to it. Look up one spot..lol

Honestly I am inclined to just toss this GFS run. It doesn't make much sense when comparing surface to 500mb

No matter what model we've looked at, it seems like CNJ, SNJ, and LI are in great position which is rare.

Irish wrote:No matter what model we've looked at, it seems like CNJ, SNJ, and LI are in great position which is rare.

Agreed

Tomorrow 12Z is when I believe we know if this is a DC/Baltimore to CNJ special or it extends much further up the I95. What i see right now is as clear as mud. What killed the GFS run is the mid-level energy wasn't consolidated. Spread out too much.

To me it doesn't look dramatically different in terms of track, upper level development, from the 6z run except that it is producing less snowfall. So the heavy snow orientation is the same but he totals are slightly lower across the board. Not sure what to make of it.

Frank_Wx wrote:Honestly I am inclined to just toss this GFS run. It doesn't make much sense when comparing surface to 500mb

Just when I was feeling good about things, GFS craps the bed. At least the 500 mb map looked good.

billg315 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:What a waste of a ton of snow over the ocean too!! Move it a bit north but keep same people in the game, ocean doesn't need snow lol

Indeed. In fact, I'm quite sure, those out in the ocean would prefer NOT to have that snow. See: Perfect Storm. lol

One my al ltime fav but heartbreaking books and movies!!

The Para GFS crushes us. These damn models are all over the place.

0z CMC looks like 12z GFS

12z CMC