01/31 Possible Winter Storm

kaboom!

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:It’s still snowing at this hour

Unbelievable run

who said NAm often follows in sref steps? Spot on but madonne NAM!! RB I thought your forecast was one we would not like, this is very liked by many i am sure lol

So, this one I would be ok with. Not 1-2 feet at extreme coastal Ocean County, but it looks like 6-8" or even 7-9" imby. That's a real snow storm by my standards. But still, hoping for twice that!!

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I’m not gonna lie, I’m totally fangirling on the 00z NAM right now lol

Don’t think you’ll be going to your parents for this one

I do. This run actually gave me huge confidence boost in my forecast. LOVED what I saw at H5.

Let’s keep in mind the different models forecast bias’ here and not get crazy. Lol. We all know the NAM likes to be the most amped soln.

yup cant wait to see 3km 4 ft totals lol

Steve D's Map:

The pressure gradient with a stalled out low and good thermal profiles is sure going to make it look and feel like a blizzard even if criteria isn't met. Criteria may very well be met though if this thing reaches close to its potential.

Irish wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:It’s still snowing at this hour

Unbelievable run

who said NAm often follows in sref steps? Spot on but madonne NAM!! RB I thought your forecast was one we would not like, this is very liked by many i am sure lol

That would be yours truly and I need another 75 miles north to verify my snow axis. This run just came 50 miles north. One more like what we just saw would make a lot of people very unhappy lol

I want nothing to do with another shift north, this visual/ run is perfect!  Thank you.

This run is pretty much....for the entire board.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I’m not gonna lie, I’m totally fangirling on the 00z NAM right now lol

Don’t think you’ll be going to your parents for this one

I do. This run actually gave me huge confidence boost in my forecast. LOVED what I saw at H5.

Let’s keep in mind the different models forecast bias’ here and not get crazy. Lol. We all know the NAM likes to be the most amped soln.

Fair. But recall what I mentioned the other day, that the NAM has been the southeastern outlier in its extended range for whatever reason this year, only to then start correcting inside 48 hours. With this storm, it was still on the southeastern side of the envelope, but it was generally with other guidance. Will be interested to see how future runs play out.

Nam at its extended range is better than the GFS at any range. I still think the north trend is real and I don't understand people putting out detailed snow maps when flakes don't fly in NYC for a good 48 hours and with all the variability the models are showing.

hyde345 wrote:Nam at its extended range is better than the GFS at any range. I still think the north trend is real and I don't understand people putting out detailed snow maps when flakes don't fly in NYC for a good 48 hours and with all the variability the models are showing.

I keep thinking Sunday but ur right, its 2 days out hours wise, maybe even longer later than 10pm sunday. Def need keep in check still, gonna see some more changes for better worse we will just have to wait, one thing I hate to do lol

hyde345 wrote:Nam at its extended range is better than the GFS at any range. I still think the north trend is real and I don't understand people putting out detailed snow maps when flakes don't fly in NYC for a good 48 hours and with all the variability the models are showing.

I mean, to be fair, I put out broad totals three days ago in my discussion. It just boils down to confidence as a forecaster. I don’t see anything wrong with it so long as you can back it up with sound reasoning and can take the heat if you bust, AND you can communicate the uncertainty to the public so that they are aware of the difference between what you think as a forecaster, and what the possibility/possibilities is/are. Admittedly, it’s a delicate balance haha

hyde345 wrote:Nam at its extended range is better than the GFS at any range. I still think the north trend is real and I don't understand people putting out detailed snow maps when flakes don't fly in NYC for a good 48 hours and with all the variability the models are showing.

Agree...

Frank_Wx wrote:

hyde345 wrote:Nam at its extended range is better than the GFS at any range. I still think the north trend is real and I don't understand people putting out detailed snow maps when flakes don't fly in NYC for a good 48 hours and with all the variability the models are showing.

Agree...

And what about factoring in the actual snow ratios?

00z RGEM is running

Madonne it looks even more amp'd up than the NAM at the 500mb level

CnWestMilford76 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

hyde345 wrote:Nam at its extended range is better than the GFS at any range. I still think the north trend is real and I don't understand people putting out detailed snow maps when flakes don't fly in NYC for a good 48 hours and with all the variability the models are showing.

Agree...

And what about factoring in the actual snow ratios?  

10:1

Still snowing....

Not quite negative but still amazing depth

aiannone wrote:Still snowing....

LOL!

ICON making big changes aloft too. Oo boyyyy

aiannone wrote:Still snowing....

3’ in Philly??? I’d cry enough tears to melt it if that happened lmaooo

ICON - another beast. As you may have noticed, there is a clear 'north' trend tonight which now shows the jackpot setting up away from the shore area

Don’t think many will like the ICON aha

Frank_Wx wrote:ICON - another beast. As you may have noticed, there is a clear 'north' trend tonight which now shows the jackpot setting up away from the shore area

That R/S line is jumping up.

rb924119 wrote:Don’t think many will like the ICON aha

If you don't like it, you just dismiss it, like many do with the GooFus.

The oddest snow map in history

Jumps the low to the delmarva?

Biggest GFS run since 12/26/10