01/31 Possible Winter Storm

sroc4 wrote:Fwiw so far 18z euro a tad less confluence and heights are a bit higher on approach. If continues will likely mean a more northerly track. Let’s see

Looks like a much more negative tilt to the 500 mb trough. That to me is key.

Euro tucked and trough went negative.

18z Euro definitely trended back north. Heaviest snow from Philly into Long Island. But a good hit for most. Maybe a little more mixing on the South Jersey coast, but most of our members are far enough north to get decent snow.

heehaw453 wrote:Euro tucked and trough went negative.

Monmouth County jackpot is too real ahaha

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Euro tucked and trough went negative.

Monmouth County jackpot is too real ahaha

I guess it is safe to say you're not buying it

heehaw453 wrote:Euro tucked and trough went negative.

That's a thing of beauty!

billg315 wrote:18z Euro definitely trended back north. Heaviest snow from Philly into Long Island. But a good hit for most. Maybe a little more mixing on the South Jersey coast, but most of our members are far enough north to get decent snow.

So far, the trend today has been a north. ..

Low def more tucked low but precip shield was able to expand more. Trough was def able to tilt more neg sooner as a result of the western flank of the 50/50 a little further east.

Unfort there is going to be sharp cutoffs. No way around this. It’s the price you pay for the development of such a beautiful CCB. Occasionally you get a double barrel CCB with subsidence in between.

sroc4 wrote:Unfort there is going to be sharp cutoffs. No way around this. It’s the price you pay for the development of such a beautiful CCB. Occasionally you get a double barrel CCB with subsidence in between.

SHhhhhhhh! Don't even. lol

phil155 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Euro tucked and trough went negative.

Monmouth County jackpot is too real ahaha

I guess it is safe to say you're not buying it

It’s not that I do or don’t, I’m just commenting because when you watch weather for a long time, you pick up on tendencies. The Monmouth County jackpot is just one of those tendencies - it rarely fails to show up in the models, and in events that favor the coastal plain, it rarely doesn’t verify haha

billg315 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Unfort there is going to be sharp cutoffs. No way around this. It’s the price you pay for the development of such a beautiful CCB. Occasionally you get a double barrel CCB with subsidence in between.

SHhhhhhhh! Don't even. lol

One of CP’s FAVORITE words!!! Subsidence!!! He also likes virga too

I don't know much about this stuff but from what I'm seeing over the past 24-36 hours, I don't think this system shifts a ton N&W, if it moves it'll be small ticks. I think the bullseye is basically known and in place.

Oh madonne!!!!!!

Frank_Wx wrote:Oh madonne!!!!!!

Brief explanation on what this is showing? Sorry I'm a winter weather dunce.

Deep negatively tilted trough with big heights out west. When was the last time we saw one of these Frank? Seems forever. Haha.

Frank_Wx wrote:Oh madonne!!!!!!

Maddonne Mia Is Right that’s blizzard

That's the bowling ball rounding the bend...aka the storm track of a classic n'oer easter.

Also,  I believe that dark red/orange near my arrow is the strongest energy and you get the strongest precip to the NW or in this case to the left of that.

Yes? No?

That map is the upper level jet. The energy diving down the backside of the trough, noted by the dark reds and pinkish colors pointing toward the Gulf, is the strongest this model has shown to this point. Notice how the trough begins its tilt negative in that frame, and we now see a jet streak (the same colors as before) JUST off the coast of Maine. That same jet streak 24 hours ago was very east of Maine and the surface low was gravitating toward it, hence a track well east of us. If we’re able to feed the trough with backside northern energy, it will cause this trough to tilt and dramatically slow the evolution of this storm down. A slower storm likely means better dynamics, longer duration, and a low that tracks closer to the coast. It also puts the CCB directly over our area.

The SREFs just went NUCLEAR

A widespread Godzilla. They captured the storm, meaning, it was a full phase and negatively tilted trough. The storm literally rots over our area until it snows itself out.

Frank_Wx wrote:The SREFs just went NUCLEAR

A widespread Godzilla. They captured the storm, meaning, it was a full phase and negatively tilted trough. The storm literally  rots over our area until it snows itself out.

wowwee I don't think anyone can complain there!$ 00z go be interesting if shows any similar

Frank_Wx wrote:The SREFs just went NUCLEAR

A widespread Godzilla. They captured the storm, meaning, it was a full phase and negatively tilted trough. The storm literally  rots over our area until it snows itself out.

I will take it

Frank- fair to say this could be a 36 hour start to finish event?

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The SREFs just went NUCLEAR

A widespread Godzilla. They captured the storm, meaning, it was a full phase and negatively tilted trough. The storm literally  rots over our area until it snows itself out.

wowwee I don't think anyone can complain there!$ 00z go be interesting if shows any similar

JMan???? Pretty sure the Shore folk from GSP EXIT 127 to Exit 53 who just went from >12 to <6 got plenty to complain about from that.

But, that is the outcome I'm expecting, actually. 100%.

Frank_Wx wrote:The SREFs just went NUCLEAR

A widespread Godzilla. They captured the storm, meaning, it was a full phase and negatively tilted trough. The storm literally  rots over our area until it snows itself out.

Big jump northwest from previous runs. That could mean the NAM is about to do the same thing. Not always, but generally they follow each other (same dynamical cores, different convective parameters).

How is Long Island looking ?

Nam is def going to come in a trade more N W