Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm

by **aiannone** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:27 pm

Jumps the low to the delmarva?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:27 pm

Biggest GFS run since 12/26/10

by **hyde345** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:27 pm

rb924119 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Nam at its extended range is better than the GFS at any range. I still think the north trend is real and I don't understand people putting out detailed snow maps when flakes don't fly in NYC for a good 48 hours and with all the variability the models are showing.

I mean, to be fair, I put out broad totals three days ago in my discussion. It just boils down to confidence as a forecaster. I don’t see anything wrong with it so long as you can back it up with sound reasoning and can take the heat if you bust, AND you can communicate the uncertainty to the public so that they are aware of the difference between what you think as a forecaster, and what the possibility/possibilities is/are. Admittedly, it’s a delicate balance haha

Yes but I have seen detailed snow maps already like it's set in stone. Big bust potential with this storm and the variablity that the models have shown. That's different from talking about broad axis of heaviest snow backed by your thoughts.

by CnWestMilford76 Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:28 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The oddest snow map in history

Lol... this model is wacky... but the takeaway is a northern trend.

by **Irish** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:28 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The oddest snow map in history

What the last hour has taught me is that these models have no idea what's going on. They are so different. Fun to watch but can't take any of it seriously and that map is insane. Look forward to tomorrow to see where we are as we get closer.

by **hyde345** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:34 pm

Irish wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Don’t think many will like the ICON aha

If you don't like it, you just dismiss it, like many do with the GooFus.

Many people don't like the GooFuS because it's just plain wrong so many times. It's a horrible model. Complete garbage. It's often in la-la land and the last to join the party. It's getting replaced soon and it can't happen fast enough. It was a disaster with the december storm and so far it hasn't been much better with this one.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:35 pm

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I’m not gonna lie, I’m totally fangirling on the 00z NAM right now lol

Don’t think you’ll be going to your parents for this one

I do. This run actually gave me huge confidence boost in my forecast. LOVED what I saw at H5.

Let’s keep in mind the different models forecast bias’ here and not get crazy. Lol. We all know the NAM likes to be the most amped soln.

Fair. But recall what I mentioned the other day, that the NAM has been the southeastern outlier in its extended range for whatever reason this year, only to then start correcting inside 48 hours. With this storm, it was still on the southeastern side of the envelope, but it was generally with other guidance. Will be interested to see how future runs play out.

I’m just busting chops of course. While my own personal bias’ have leaked out today I too have still been worried about a step wise Nw trend and haven’t been comfortable with where my back yard is at right now at all. Living on the coast is never comfortable until it over. Too often we flirt with the RS line. And many times in recent years we have been on the wrong side.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:35 pm

rb924119 wrote:Don’t think many will like the ICON aha

I'm good with it, LOL

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:38 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The oddest snow map in history

ummm hoops and the jackpot now for doc and CP of 30 inches lmao, oddest is a understatement.

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:38 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I’m not gonna lie, I’m totally fangirling on the 00z NAM right now lol

Don’t think you’ll be going to your parents for this one

I do. This run actually gave me huge confidence boost in my forecast. LOVED what I saw at H5.

Let’s keep in mind the different models forecast bias’ here and not get crazy. Lol. We all know the NAM likes to be the most amped soln.

Fair. But recall what I mentioned the other day, that the NAM has been the southeastern outlier in its extended range for whatever reason this year, only to then start correcting inside 48 hours. With this storm, it was still on the southeastern side of the envelope, but it was generally with other guidance. Will be interested to see how future runs play out.

I’m just busting chops of course. While my own personal bias’ have leaked out today I too have still been worried about a step wise Nw trend and haven’t been comfortable with where my back yard is at right now at all. Living on the coast is never comfortable until it over. Too often we flirt with the RS line. And many times in recent yes we have been on the wrong side.

No I know, but you brought up a good point. Yeah, it’s definitely rough for the coastal plain overall in recent winters, but we haven’t exactly had a decent playing field either. Between ENSO, lousy MJO cycles and momentum balances, and just generally uncooperative patterns, it’s been tough.

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:42 pm

When is the next run? Wink

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:43 pm

GFS is out to 36. Why do I already get the feeling that the GFS is gonna do something entirely stupid this run? Lol

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:43 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Don’t think many will like the ICON aha

I'm good with it, LOL

Ill take 12-18, kinda on the cusp of either, CP you can have ur 30 inches, thats way to much of a nightmare here.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:44 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:When is the next run?

Gfs is rolling

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:44 pm

At 12z sunday the 00z GFS shows a better western ridge than 18z. Everything else the same

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:46 pm

So far on the gfs. Ridge to the west a tad more amped, height on approach higher, and a tad less confluence on western flank. Par for course so far.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:47 pm

At 00z Monday the 00z GFS has a better ridge and slightly sharper trough versus 18z

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:48 pm

Why was jman’s comment removed? Lol it was a sarcastic response to my musing that the GFS will do something stupid lol anyway, Jman, it wouldn’t surprise me lmao

by **aiannone** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:48 pm

GFS wants to rain on the CNJ jackpot lol

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:49 pm

rb924119 wrote:Why was jman’s comment removed? Lol it was a sarcastic response to my musing that the GFS will do something stupid lol anyway, Jman, it wouldn’t surprise me lmao

I removed it lolo, thought it was dumb. I said it will exit the florida peninsula those who were interested.