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01/31 Possible Winter Storm

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Post by DAYBLAZER Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:25 am

Woke up to find out that I'm apparently the only county in the state not under a WSW....

But then I read the last 5 pages of this post and get some hope back! Good runs for NNJ last night.

Just checked the latest Mt. Holly Briefing (linked below) and it has me at anywhere from 6-12. NWS has me at 8-15.

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf


So what gives? Experts-- any chance the WSW gets extended to Sussex County at some point today?

(For the record-- I am an extreme southern Sussex, 2 miles from the Morris border)
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:26 am

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 27 Ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-mslp_with_low_locs-1611986400-1612137600-1612440000-40.gif.43b999d5997b86e709a33e46b1226cdb

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Post by Angela0621 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:29 am

Hi Frank, been following this board for years now, I find it informative and fascinating, what does this last map that you posted show? trying to learn as I watch!
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Post by frank 638 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:29 am

Just wondering do you think the winter storm watch will go into blizzard warning

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:29 am

My two cents and I’ve been harping the n it for days is last nights runs would give us a good idea what to expect, as they would be the first samples the models had with readings of the energy involved on land. Well that happened and things changed quite a bit. It doesn’t mean they cant change again and they probably will to a degree tonight but I don’t think we see any more 100-200 mile shifts like we have the last two days. No one should celebrate or give up yet but if you’re in SNJ right now or anywhere near the Jersey coast south of Staten Island you have to be concerned but for the most part that’s just part of the game climate wise down there. If 12 and 0z tonight shift a bit SE you could still be the jackpot area. To add to confusion the NAM has orange county where I live in the Hudson Valley getting 22 inches of snow now and we don’t even have a winter storm watch here. Which shows that the National Weather Service is not believing any one model yet even though the trend last night was definitely well north.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:35 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Anyone have maps from 06z euro?

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 27 857AC18E-4AC0-4ECF-96A1-58AC1BD4B4CA.png.64dc7174d7d4b64dbf3b986620bbc530

MUCH better trend for the LHV.Up from 6 inches to almost a foot on this model and 22 inches on the 06z NAM.We are back in the hunt, CP.

I will say that I really don't like Miller B's.Somebody always is in a screw zone.Love the Miller A area wide monsters like Dec 2010 the best.None of this micro model mayhem.
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Post by frank 638 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:36 am

Twc said snow totals might go up for nyc and north we could be looking at 12 to 24 inches

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Post by Grselig Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:39 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:My two cents and I’ve been harping the n it for days is last nights runs would give us a good idea what to expect, as they would be the first samples the models had with readings of the energy involved on land. Well that happened and things changed quite a bit. It doesn’t mean they cant change again and they probably will to a degree tonight but I don’t think we see any more 100-200 mile shifts like we have the last two days. No one should celebrate or give up yet but if you’re in SNJ right now or anywhere near the Jersey coast south of Staten Island you have to be concerned but for the most part that’s just part of the game climate wise down there. If 12 and 0z tonight shift a bit SE you could still be the jackpot area. To add to confusion the NAM has orange county where I live in the Hudson Valley getting 22 inches of snow now and we don’t even have a winter storm watch here. Which shows that the National Weather Service is not believing any one model yet even though the trend last night was definitely well north.

Very wise. Hope you are correct about significant changes, especially regarding data collection. We shall see. I don' think anybody should feel comfortable or lost at this point in time. Seen too many times subtle changes affect the outcome. Hoping for the best for all, but expectations very much in check as well.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:43 am

@Angela0621 wrote:Hi Frank, been following this board for years now, I find it informative and fascinating, what does this last map that you posted show?  trying to learn as I watch!

Hey Angela. The map Frank showed is the European ensemble forecast(aka EPS). If you didn’t know the EPS is 50 separate individual runs then average out to form a consensus of what might happen. What you see in the map is the green circle is the average center to the placement of the low pressure from to all 50 I dividal runs combined and averaged. All the little tiny L s are showing you where all the individual runs placed their lows so you can see how the EPS came to the avg.

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Post by Irish Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:45 am

@frank 638 wrote:Twc said snow totals might go up for nyc and north we could be looking at 12 to 24 inches

They upped me overnight to 12-18.

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:49 am

My local forecast now has Ocean county for 1-3" alot of rain and then 1" on the back end. Truthfully, the exact spot I'd want to be in right now if it wasn't for the ups and downs of the last 3 days...

Jan 16, same forecast. Track drifted east, by the slightest amount, dry slot below the comma head prevented mixing or rain for nearly the whole Jersey Shore and the front end and back end both amounted 12"+ totals Shore-wide.

But unless the models really wobble SE, I'm storm-chasing this one! lol

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:50 am

Its early in the run but I can almost bet tha the NAMs high and tight 6z forecast is coming back to the SE a bit. How much lets see

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:51 am

@Angela0621 wrote:Hi Frank, been following this board for years now, I find it informative and fascinating, what does this last map that you posted show?  trying to learn as I watch!

In addition to sroc’s explanation of what that model is, it also shows the low “bombing” out - or intensifying - just southeast of NJ and slow to move out. Which is what is going to be good news in terms of big snow for many people on here. Just don’t know exactly where the “heaviest” of snow will be just yet.
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:53 am

SREFS for ur morning wake up...SHALL WE?
01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 27 0CC50073-4C68-4373-8383-A3D9D73E7F73.png.a354f334285aee059b6a8428599bbb13

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:55 am

I don’t think so, Scott. Less confluence through 21 with the primary H5 further northeast/stronger.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:56 am

It depends on where the mid level storm really starts maturing. If it's ACY, then heavier snow goes much further north. If it more like more like Ocean City then Euro depiction is accurate. If it's south of that then RGEM axis of heavy snow makes sense. The only thing crystal clear to me is the uncertainity.

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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:00 am

The energy at hour 24 does seem a smidge north. But too soon in the run to make head or tails.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:00 am

@rb924119 wrote:I don’t think so, Scott. Less confluence through 21 with the primary H5 further northeast/stronger.

Heights out ahead though are lower.  Ill be patient though

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 27 Fff10


Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:02 am; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:01 am

@SENJsnowman wrote:My local forecast now has Ocean county for 1-3" alot of rain and then 1" on the back end. Truthfully, the exact spot I'd want to be in right now if it wasn't for the ups and downs of the last 3 days...

Jan 16, same forecast. Track drifted east, by the slightest amount, dry slot below the comma head prevented mixing or rain for nearly the whole Jersey Shore and the front end and back end both amounted 12"+ totals Shore-wide.

But unless the models really wobble SE, I'm storm-chasing this one! lol

If I remember correctly you have kids under 10..hell yes, I remember telling the principal I was taking my son to Disney for his birthday in Nov.when he was 8,.her words were there is "more to school, the memories you make as a family outweigh everything"...of course she reminded me he had to make up all his work..lol. We still play hookie..from time to time..I am excited to see what jackpot town you choose!!
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:06 am

Now at hour 33 it seems a smidge south of the last run. Point: sroc. This is like watching a great tennis match. Let's see where it ends up!
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Post by mmanisca Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:08 am

@sroc4 wrote:For the coasties the 06z NAM was def a concern but the 06 euro still held. While it did expand higher totals north it also expanded then south a bit.
Hoping overnight runs were a little too much to the north and we get more correction southeast! Live out here in western Suffolk county L.I.
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:12 am

Hr 39 surface lows are in southern Ohio and trying to pop off NC/VA. Upper level energy over central Ohio with the primary.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:12 am

Confluence is further south like 00z, but the energy associated with it is weaker than 06z. No idea how this plays out lol

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Post by mmanisca Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:13 am

@rb924119 wrote:Confluence is further south like 00z, but the energy associated with it is weaker than 06z. No idea how this plays out lol

For Long Island "that be good!"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:16 am

Big changes 12z vs 6z NAM


Stronger jet on the backside of the trough, and near the surface location of the storm

Should result in prolific snowfall amounts...

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