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01/31 Possible Winter Storm

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:17 am

@rb924119 wrote:Confluence is further south like 00z, but the energy associated with it is weaker than 06z. No idea how this plays out lol

YeahIm watching like oh thats good oh not sure about that Def an interesting evolution

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:18 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Confluence is further south like 00z, but the energy associated with it is weaker than 06z. No idea how this plays out lol

YeahIm watching like oh thats good oh not sure about that Def an interesting     evolution

Im still pretty confident the track will be E of 6z

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:19 am

Through hour 45, the 12z NAM is slightly east with the LP off of Hatteras

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:20 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@SENJsnowman wrote:My local forecast now has Ocean county for 1-3" alot of rain and then 1" on the back end. Truthfully, the exact spot I'd want to be in right now if it wasn't for the ups and downs of the last 3 days...

Jan 16, same forecast. Track drifted east, by the slightest amount, dry slot below the comma head prevented mixing or rain for nearly the whole Jersey Shore and the front end and back end both amounted 12"+ totals Shore-wide.

But unless the models really wobble SE, I'm storm-chasing this one! lol

If I remember correctly you have kids under 10..hell yes, I remember telling the principal I was taking my son to Disney for his birthday in Nov.when he was 8,.her words were there is "more to school, the memories you make as a family outweigh everything"...of course she reminded me he had to make up all his work..lol. We still play hookie..from time to time..I am excited to see what jackpot town you choose!!


Well, Lily just turned 10, but yep you got it right! And I totally agree...family memories come first and foremost.

After the 00z blood bath last night, the only way I could get to sleep was by trying to pick out viable jackpot towns. Was thinking NWNJ, but now maybe W-Central NJ??

I feel like a carpetbagger!! 😂😂. Will stay put for 6+”, but that’s post storm projected total, not a pre-rain overnight thump that gets washed away by morning time. So, got one eye here and one eye there at the moment. ha ha

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:20 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Through hour 45, the 12z NAM is slightly east with the LP off of Hatteras

12z

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 28 Namconus_uv250_us_40

6z

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 28 Namconus_uv250_us_42

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:21 am

Framk 48 it jumps east but as thetrough matures it will get pyulled back in. How far though

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:21 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@SENJsnowman wrote:My local forecast now has Ocean county for 1-3" alot of rain and then 1" on the back end. Truthfully, the exact spot I'd want to be in right now if it wasn't for the ups and downs of the last 3 days...

Jan 16, same forecast. Track drifted east, by the slightest amount, dry slot below the comma head prevented mixing or rain for nearly the whole Jersey Shore and the front end and back end both amounted 12"+ totals Shore-wide.

But unless the models really wobble SE, I'm storm-chasing this one! lol

If I remember correctly you have kids under 10..hell yes, I remember telling the principal I was taking my son to Disney for his birthday in Nov.when he was 8,.her words were there is "more to school, the memories you make as a family outweigh everything"...of course she reminded me he had to make up all his work..lol. We still play hookie..from time to time..I am excited to see what jackpot town you choose!!


Well, Lily just turned 10, but yep you got it right! And I totally agree...family memories come first and foremost.

After the 00z blood bath last night, the only way I could get to sleep was by trying to pick out viable jackpot towns. Was thinking NWNJ, but now maybe W-Central NJ??

I feel like a carpetbagger!! 😂😂. Will stay put for 6+”, but that’s post storm projected total, not a pre-rain overnight thump that gets washed away by morning time. So, got one eye here and one eye there at the moment. ha ha

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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:21 am

Initial thought at Hr48 is this may bring the heavier snow slightly South and East, but who knows. We'll see where it is when it stops running. lol
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:21 am

WOW

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 28 Nam-218-all-ma-instant_ptype-2180800.png.7ff53da0e23c050838483459dc339737

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:23 am

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 28 500hv-conus

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:23 am

Get ready for the CCB to.kick in on this.
01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 28 Nam-218-all-ma-instant_ptype-2191600.png.8a70ea5b430a2425cc7e77db1820fba2

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:23 am

500mb Low is centered over S Ohio into WV this run compared to NE Ohio on 6 z. Good things

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:25 am

Everything upper and surface through Hr51 seems a bit east. And the primary energy is further south in Ohio, which I remember rb pointing out on the last run it was in NE Ohio, which was a sign of why that run ended further north. I think the NAM is backing off its dramatic NW jump in the last run. Not a lot maybe, but a bit.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:26 am

This RH field is unbelievable. The initial dry slot from the WAA fills in VERY fast once the secondary takes over

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 28 60156c1621503-thumb-png-f0de01f043ea9dfdcfa0f0dfc15b9426

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:26 am

@sroc4 wrote:500mb Low is centered over S Ohio into WV this run compared to NE Ohio on 6 z.  Good things

Only what 300 miles or so difference. LOL. Oh brother.

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:26 am

Mint 700 Further South . BS also on that WXbell.map BTW O line and -1/2 down to AC

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 28 Namconus_z700_vort_neus_fh45_trend.gif.1a8146e90b0fb7d3459bb89c83398389


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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:26 am

12z

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 28 Namconus_uv250_us_42

6z - see the difference??

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 28 Namconus_uv250_us_44

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:27 am

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 28 Surfac18

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:27 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:This RH field is unbelievable. The initial dry slot from the WAA fills in VERY fast once the secondary takes over

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 28 60156c1621503-thumb-png-f0de01f043ea9dfdcfa0f0dfc15b9426

WILL YOU READ MY TEXTS!!!

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:27 am

Prolific frames imcoming!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:27 am

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 28 Ref1km-ptype-us-ne

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:28 am

Yeah, but I think the overall trend is still north. Reason why is that it’s typical for model cycles to fluctuate/oscillate between north/from from run to run. The fact that the mid-level circulation is both stronger and better defined versus 00z, further north than 00z, and the confluence is also overall weaker than 00z, I think signifies that there is still some trending to be done. If it stops at 00z tonight, then that’s probably the extent of it. Just my .02.

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Post by dsix85 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:30 am

Looks like less mixing issues along the coast with this run, correct?

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:30 am

BOOOOM
01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 28 Namconus_z700_vort_neus_fh45_trend.gif.1a8146e90b0fb7d3459bb89c83398389

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Post by dsix85 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:31 am

Went negative?

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