01/31 Possible Winter Storm

rb924119 wrote:Confluence is further south like 00z, but the energy associated with it is weaker than 06z. No idea how this plays out lol

For Long Island "that be good!"

Big changes 12z vs 6z NAM


Stronger jet on the backside of the trough, and near the surface location of the storm

Should result in prolific snowfall amounts...

rb924119 wrote:Confluence is further south like 00z, but the energy associated with it is weaker than 06z. No idea how this plays out lol

YeahIm watching like oh thats good oh not sure about that Def an interesting evolution

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Confluence is further south like 00z, but the energy associated with it is weaker than 06z. No idea how this plays out lol

YeahIm watching like oh thats good oh not sure about that Def an interesting     evolution

Im still pretty confident the track will be E of 6z

Through hour 45, the 12z NAM is slightly east with the LP off of Hatteras

weatherwatchermom wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:My local forecast now has Ocean county for 1-3" alot of rain and then 1" on the back end. Truthfully, the exact spot I'd want to be in right now if it wasn't for the ups and downs of the last 3 days...

Jan 16, same forecast. Track drifted east, by the slightest amount, dry slot below the comma head prevented mixing or rain for nearly the whole Jersey Shore and the front end and back end both amounted 12"+ totals Shore-wide.

But unless the models really wobble SE, I'm storm-chasing this one! lol

If I remember correctly you have kids under 10..hell yes, I remember telling the principal I was taking my son to Disney for his birthday in Nov.when he was 8,.her words were there is "more to school, the memories you make as a family outweigh everything"...of course she reminded me he had to make up all his work..lol. We still play hookie..from time to time..I am excited to see what jackpot town you choose!!

Well, Lily just turned 10, but yep you got it right! And I totally agree...family memories come first and foremost.

After the 00z blood bath last night, the only way I could get to sleep was by trying to pick out viable jackpot towns. Was thinking NWNJ, but now maybe W-Central NJ??

I feel like a carpetbagger!! . Will stay put for 6+”, but that’s post storm projected total, not a pre-rain overnight thump that gets washed away by morning time. So, got one eye here and one eye there at the moment. ha ha

Frank_Wx wrote:Through hour 45, the 12z NAM is slightly east with the LP off of Hatteras

12z



6z

Framk 48 it jumps east but as thetrough matures it will get pyulled back in. How far though

weatherwatchermom wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:My local forecast now has Ocean county for 1-3" alot of rain and then 1" on the back end. Truthfully, the exact spot I'd want to be in right now if it wasn't for the ups and downs of the last 3 days...

Jan 16, same forecast. Track drifted east, by the slightest amount, dry slot below the comma head prevented mixing or rain for nearly the whole Jersey Shore and the front end and back end both amounted 12"+ totals Shore-wide.

But unless the models really wobble SE, I'm storm-chasing this one! lol

If I remember correctly you have kids under 10..hell yes, I remember telling the principal I was taking my son to Disney for his birthday in Nov.when he was 8,.her words were there is "more to school, the memories you make as a family outweigh everything"...of course she reminded me he had to make up all his work..lol. We still play hookie..from time to time..I am excited to see what jackpot town you choose!!

Well, Lily just turned 10, but yep you got it right! And I totally agree...family memories come first and foremost.

After the 00z blood bath last night, the only way I could get to sleep was by trying to pick out viable jackpot towns. Was thinking NWNJ, but now maybe W-Central NJ??

I feel like a carpetbagger!! . Will stay put for 6+”, but that’s post storm projected total, not a pre-rain overnight thump that gets washed away by morning time. So, got one eye here and one eye there at the moment. ha ha

Initial thought at Hr48 is this may bring the heavier snow slightly South and East, but who knows. We'll see where it is when it stops running. lol

WOW

Get ready for the CCB to.kick in on this.

500mb Low is centered over S Ohio into WV this run compared to NE Ohio on 6 z. Good things

Everything upper and surface through Hr51 seems a bit east. And the primary energy is further south in Ohio, which I remember rb pointing out on the last run it was in NE Ohio, which was a sign of why that run ended further north. I think the NAM is backing off its dramatic NW jump in the last run. Not a lot maybe, but a bit.

This RH field is unbelievable. The initial dry slot from the WAA fills in VERY fast once the secondary takes over

sroc4 wrote:500mb Low is centered over S Ohio into WV this run compared to NE Ohio on 6 z.  Good things

Only what 300 miles or so difference. LOL. Oh brother.

Mint 700 Further South . BS also on that WXbell.map BTW O line and -1/2 down to AC

12z



6z - see the difference??

Frank_Wx wrote:This RH field is unbelievable. The initial dry slot from the WAA fills in VERY fast once the secondary takes over

WILL YOU READ MY TEXTS!!!

Prolific frames imcoming!!

Yeah, but I think the overall trend is still north. Reason why is that it’s typical for model cycles to fluctuate/oscillate between north/from from run to run. The fact that the mid-level circulation is both stronger and better defined versus 00z, further north than 00z, and the confluence is also overall weaker than 00z, I think signifies that there is still some trending to be done. If it stops at 00z tonight, then that’s probably the extent of it. Just my .02.

Looks like less mixing issues along the coast with this run, correct?

BOOOOM

Went negative?