Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm

by **amugs** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:30 am

BOOOOM

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by **dsix85** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:31 am

Went negative?

by **amugs** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:31 am

by **billg315** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:31 am

Surface Low bombing out due east of ACY.

by **amugs** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:32 am

by **sroc4** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:33 am

Overall surface low was def east by about 50-75miles. The mid level low centers also shifted a tad S&E as well. 35-50miles maybe. Its the finer wobbles today. Lets see if the rest trend back a bit SE

by **amugs** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:33 am

HOURS OF JUST PURE POWDER!!!

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by **amugs** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:34 am

I said 990 to sub possible before it rots??? Beuhler Buehler? Frye? Frye?

by **billg315** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:34 am

Hr 66 H5 is centered roughly over the Delmarva.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:34 am

Technically we're still in the longer range of the NAM still (crazy to think)

I still think this model is adjusting.

But a small trend I am beginning to notice is the axis of heavier snows trying to tilt N to E instead of SW to NE.

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:35 am

It kind of takes its time getting it's act together IMO. It not really consolidated and that maturation process ideally will happen below our latitude. This is the NAM post 48 hours and I take it with a grain of salt.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:36 am

500mb looks real sloppy to me. Has a hard time closing off. Very elongated

by **amugs** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:36 am

Energizer Bunny anyone??

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by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:38 am

Frank_Wx wrote:500mb looks real sloppy to me. Has a hard time closing off. Very elongated

Its extremely disorganized representation on the NAM at all levels quite frankly until it gets to our latitude where it cleans itself up a bit.

by **amugs** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:39 am

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NAM!!!

by **billg315** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:39 am

12z NAM corrects south. Heaviest axis of snow moves south form last run with 10" plus totals as far south as a line from Montgomery County PA east to central Ocean County. Jackpot is pretty much all of central and north NJ as well as immediate NYC Hudson Valley and LI

by **amugs** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:40 am

Still going for some!
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by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:41 am

If this storm consolidates better around OC MD, then you'd be looking at 18"+ potential in areas IMO.

by **amugs** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:41 am

That 4am time stamp right st the map above?

by **sroc4** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:41 am

dsix85 wrote:Looks like less mixing issues along the coast with this run, correct?

With this run yes def less smixing issues, but I still think some mixing gets into the eastern 1/2-2/3rds of LI for a period. There was def a shift SE with 12z on the NAM elative to 6z in all levels but the overall evolution was weird soIm not sure how much I want to buy into it just yet. NAM is still being a bit erratic with some pretty noticeable shifts from run to run with some of the upper level features. Red flag to the idea that it is locked in just yet. Lets see what the rest of the 12z shows.

by **billg315** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:42 am

500mb Low was definitely strung out. Began to consolidate a bit over delmarva then went back to being more strung out across/just east of NJ.

by **amugs** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:44 am

[quote="heehaw453"]If this storm consolidates better around OC MD, then you'd be looking at 18"+

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 29 Giphy_10

Give it another run ot two for me to adjust it Haw please can give the milk away for free now LOL!!

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:46 am

amugs wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:If this storm consolidates better around OC MD, then you'd be looking at 18"+

Give it another run ot two for me to adjust it Haw please can give the milk away for free now LOL!!

LOL.

by **amugs** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:46 am

If the 500 consolidates then WOWZA, some peeps be crying with joy and delight and others cursing us LOL

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:47 am

DiMartino going all in I95. I'd wait until 0Z tonight for that call. Very possible, just wait a bit longer I think.

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by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:48 am

by **dsix85** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:48 am

sroc4 wrote:
dsix85 wrote:Looks like less mixing issues along the coast with this run, correct?

With this run yes def less smixing issues, but I still think some mixing gets into the eastern 1/2-2/3rds of LI for a period. There was def a shift SE with 12z on the NAM elative to 6z in all levels but the overall evolution was weird soIm not sure how much I want to buy into it just yet. NAM is still being a bit erratic with some pretty noticeable shifts from run to run with some of the upper level features. Red flag to the idea that it is locked in just yet. Lets see what the rest of the 12z shows.

Thanks Sroc- Wading River/Manorville always a battle line with these storms. We tend to do quite well when it's a battle line but time will tell

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