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01/31 Possible Winter Storm

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:31 am

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 29 Nam-218-all-ma-instant_ptype-2202400.png.a3c2715f80721512f0d82011b89f1dea

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:31 am

Surface Low bombing out due east of ACY.
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:32 am

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 29 Nam-218-all-ma-instant_ptype-2202400.png.a3c2715f80721512f0d82011b89f1dea

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:33 am

Overall surface low was def east by about 50-75miles. The mid level low centers also shifted a tad S&E as well. 35-50miles maybe. Its the finer wobbles today. Lets see if the rest trend back a bit SE

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:33 am

HOURS OF JUST PURE POWDER!!!

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 29 Nam-218-all-ma-instant_ptype-2202400.png.a3c2715f80721512f0d82011b89f1dea

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:34 am

I said 990 to sub possible before it rots??? Beuhler Buehler? Frye? Frye?

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:34 am

Hr 66 H5 is centered roughly over the Delmarva.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:34 am

Technically we're still in the longer range of the NAM still (crazy to think)

I still think this model is adjusting.

But a small trend I am beginning to notice is the axis of heavier snows trying to tilt N to E instead of SW to NE.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:35 am

It kind of takes its time getting it's act together IMO. It not really consolidated and that maturation process ideally will happen below our latitude. This is the NAM post 48 hours and I take it with a grain of salt.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:36 am

500mb looks real sloppy to me. Has a hard time closing off. Very elongated

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:36 am

Energizer Bunny anyone??

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 29 Image.png.b76226ac5ab705065849f271b822f274

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:38 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:500mb looks real sloppy to me. Has a hard time closing off. Very elongated

Its extremely disorganized representation on the NAM at all levels quite frankly until it gets to our latitude where it cleans itself up a bit.

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:39 am

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 29 Nam-218-all-ma-total_precip_inch-2288800.png.0a9ad2ae9abe783224cc194522515eda

NAM!!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:39 am

12z NAM corrects south. Heaviest axis of snow moves south form last run with 10" plus totals as far south as a line from Montgomery County PA east to central Ocean County. Jackpot is pretty much all of central and north NJ as well as immediate NYC Hudson Valley and LI
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:40 am

Still going for some!
01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 29 Image.png.48822a23dae61ac1a6627ba17c638bf4

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:41 am

If this storm consolidates better around OC MD, then you'd be looking at 18"+ potential in areas IMO.

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:41 am

That 4am time stamp right st the map above?

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:41 am

@dsix85 wrote:Looks like less mixing issues along the coast with this run, correct?

With this run yes def less smixing issues, but I still think some mixing gets into the eastern 1/2-2/3rds of LI for a period. There was def a shift SE with 12z on the NAM elative to 6z in all levels but the overall evolution was weird soIm not sure how much I want to buy into it just yet. NAM is still being a bit erratic with some pretty noticeable shifts from run to run with some of the upper level features. Red flag to the idea that it is locked in just yet. Lets see what the rest of the 12z shows.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:42 am

500mb Low was definitely strung out. Began to consolidate a bit over delmarva then went back to being more strung out across/just east of NJ.
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:44 am

[quote="heehaw453"]If this storm consolidates better around OC MD, then you'd be looking at 18"+

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 29 Giphy_10


Give it another run ot two for me to adjust it Haw please can give the milk away for free now LOL!!

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:46 am

@amugs wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:If this storm consolidates better around OC MD, then you'd be looking at 18"+

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 29 Giphy_10


Give it another run ot two for me to adjust it Haw please can give the milk away for free now LOL!!

LOL.

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:46 am

If the 500 consolidates then WOWZA, some peeps be crying with joy and delight and others cursing us LOL

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:47 am

DiMartino going all in I95. I'd wait until 0Z tonight for that call. Very possible, just wait a bit longer I think.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 29 Nynjpa11

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:48 am

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 29 485394028-NAM12k1-3012-ZTotal-thumb-png-d6669ad975797447ee3149caa9057940

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Post by dsix85 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:48 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@dsix85 wrote:Looks like less mixing issues along the coast with this run, correct?

With this run yes def less smixing issues, but I still think some mixing gets into the eastern 1/2-2/3rds of LI for a period.  There was def a shift SE with 12z on the NAM elative to 6z in all levels but the overall evolution was weird soIm not sure how much I want to buy into it just yet.  NAM is still being a bit erratic with some pretty noticeable shifts from run to run with some of the upper level features.  Red flag to the idea that it is locked in just yet.  Lets see what the rest of the 12z shows.  

Thanks Sroc- Wading River/Manorville always a battle line with these storms. We tend to do quite well when it's a battle line but time will tell

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