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February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

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February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 18 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:03 am

frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:I meant the blizzardof96
I was go say who cares about a bird u saw in 96 lol and try again with spaces lol. Ya this is go be epic. Even if we don't fall in the highest atea we will be very close looks like a matter of a few inches difference. Not a big deal to me.
ur right This is going to be exciting storm for everyone and we deserve this
well as lg just posted rayno rained on our parade suggesting nyc metro might see less than 12 inches, wth. where does he get that from, i will be sorely annoyed if this is true, ill have to step away from forum if that happens or irish will kill me lol

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:05 am

Rgem is east. 9" by 1pm tomorrow gonna be a great run

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:05 am

lglickman1 wrote:I guess this is what makes the weather so exciting and frustrating at times, you're never quite sure what actually going to happen until it happens

It’s horse race betting for meteorology! Your forecast is your horse haha you don’t know if it’s right until it’s over, but it’s the thrill of the race that makes it fun haha

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:05 am

rb924119 wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:Do any of the models support what Bernie is saying or does he think the Strom will trend in that direction and the models don't show it yet?

I didn’t watch his video, but I’d assume he’s in my camp, where he’s planning on future corrections in the modeling that are not yet being shown.
i will never speak to you again on here if that happens lol, ill add you to foes list. I would hate to see models revert to something like that within 12 hrs of start time.
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:06 am

jmanley32 wrote:I think Bernie doesnt know what he is taking about, I respect him as a met do not get me wrong but IMO he is wrong this time. Not bashing him just think thats not likely. Right now its showing near 1.5-2x that so on nam. until i see models showing less im not go buy that.


I wouldn’t respect him as a met. You only get 1 chance of nearly killing me on my boat cause you can’t get a daily forecast right a day in advance. Accuweather should be the last Place used for the weather.

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Post by CnWestMilford76 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:07 am

jmanley32 wrote:I think Bernie doesnt know what he is taking about, I respect him as a met do not get me wrong but IMO he is wrong this time. Not bashing him just think thats not likely. Right now its showing near 1.5-2x that so on nam. until i see models showing less im not go buy that.

He did say NYC wouldn’t mix on the December storm on his final video and he ended up wrong.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:07 am

algae888 wrote:Rgem is east. 9" by 1pm tomorrow gonna be a great run
4am wed 22 inches for us al and still snowing!!
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:07 am

ICON blitzes I-95 southwest to northeast......glad we have the orientation of the snowfall figured out lmao

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Post by Snownyc Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:08 am

jmanley32 wrote:I think Bernie doesnt know what he is taking about, I respect him as a met do not get me wrong but IMO he is wrong this time. Not bashing him just think thats not likely. Right now its showing near 1.5-2x that so on nam. until i see models showing less im not go buy that.
jman thanks a lot bro

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:08 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:Do any of the models support what Bernie is saying or does he think the Strom will trend in that direction and the models don't show it yet?

I didn’t watch his video, but I’d assume he’s in my camp, where he’s planning on future corrections in the modeling that are not yet being shown.
i will never speak to you again on here if that happens lol, ill add you to foes list. I would hate to see models revert to something like that within 12 hrs of start time.

Aye, that’s fair hahaha

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Post by gambri Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:09 am

how does jackson area by six flags look? mixing issues here?
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:10 am

wow rgen does turn to rain at the end for quite some time for most but wow 24-30 more large area including NYC area.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:11 am

OMG RGEM TOTALS WILL BE NUTS FOR WESTERN NJ AN EASTERN PA. OH. MY. LANTA.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:12 am

icon by 10am monday has 3-5 inches
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:14 am

holy rgem...

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 18 Rgem_110
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:17 am

icon is very underwealming, toss it, doesnt match any other model.
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Post by SkiSeadooJoe Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:17 am

Welp I am ready for anything down here, just hoping that those flowers don't win out like they did last year for those that remember that photo.February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 18 Snow12
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Post by Joe Snow Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:21 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:Do any of the models support what Bernie is saying or does he think the Strom will trend in that direction and the models don't show it yet?

I didn’t watch his video, but I’d assume he’s in my camp, where he’s planning on future corrections in the modeling that are not yet being shown.
i will never speak to you again on here if that happens lol, ill add you to foes list. I would hate to see models revert to something like that within 12 hrs of start time.

Aye, that’s fair hahaha

He thinks there will be Mixing issues with the DDT (Dreaded Dry Tongue) in NYC keeping accumulation below 12", thump of snow then rain.

Rich Hoffman is leaning toward the Euro and RPM showing a thump of snow then rain.

NWS is leaning toward the NAM and GFS

Who's going to win?

I' am in the NAM GFS camp, I don't see any rain in this, maybe on the east end of LI.

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Post by TheAresian Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:25 am

Bernie was using the Euro, talking about the low shows up at or just west of Philly. However, I think he might have been using the 0z model because the clock on his laptop said 10:22z.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:25 am

Joe Snow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:Do any of the models support what Bernie is saying or does he think the Strom will trend in that direction and the models don't show it yet?

I didn’t watch his video, but I’d assume he’s in my camp, where he’s planning on future corrections in the modeling that are not yet being shown.
i will never speak to you again on here if that happens lol, ill add you to foes list. I would hate to see models revert to something like that within 12 hrs of start time.

Aye, that’s fair hahaha

He thinks there will be Mixing issues with the DDT (Dreaded Dry Tongue) in NYC keeping accumulation below 12", thump of snow then rain.

Rich Hoffman is leaning toward the Euro and RPM showing a thump of snow then rain.

NWS is leaning toward the NAM and GFS

Who's going to win?

I' am in the NAM GFS camp, I don't see any rain in this, maybe on the east end of LI.  

models do show some rain near the end working its way in but its minut after 18-24 inches for most even nyc prolly sees 18 or so. i am in nam gfs camp too, not just bc i want that much snow but also cuz i really do not see any model other than icon that keeps nyc below 12 inches and even nj sees only 12-15. no one sees close to 18-24 on icon.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:26 am

Joe Snow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:Do any of the models support what Bernie is saying or does he think the Strom will trend in that direction and the models don't show it yet?

I didn’t watch his video, but I’d assume he’s in my camp, where he’s planning on future corrections in the modeling that are not yet being shown.
i will never speak to you again on here if that happens lol, ill add you to foes list. I would hate to see models revert to something like that within 12 hrs of start time.

Aye, that’s fair hahaha

He thinks there will be Mixing issues with the DDT (Dreaded Dry Tongue) in NYC keeping accumulation below 12", thump of snow then rain.

Rich Hoffman is leaning toward the Euro and RPM showing a thump of snow then rain.

NWS is leaning toward the NAM and GFS

Who's going to win?

I' am in the NAM GFS camp, I don't see any rain in this, maybe on the east end of LI.  


Ok, so he is clearly banking on a north trend then, because the dry slot/mixing go hand in hand with the mid-levels.

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:28 am

Miller b  have a tendency to shift east at the llast minute.
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Post by Irish Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:30 am

Flurries starting up here.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:30 am

algae888 wrote:Miller b  have a tendency to shift east at the llast minute.

This is a valid point.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:32 am

algae888 wrote:Miller b  have a tendency to shift east at the llast minute.
that would be good for all of us right? and avert rain chances? NY state is saying 12 inches, Cuomo i think is underplaying this but he is going by guidance but NWS says 12-18 so not sure why they not planning for more, i can see possible snow or states of emergency at some point for NJ maybe NYC and LHV, we will see. They are banning empty trucks on bridges at 6am.
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:35 am

rb, how do you feel about now thru midnight from in our back yard? Do you see 5-6" accumulating? And radar shows snow right now throughout much of the state. Is this virga which is saturating the dry air?

I don't have to make a decision for another hour or even 2. Nothing beats a good daytime storm. Stay for here for a decent 2/3 day hit or drive, spend and cramp in the hotel for a MOAB full day hit?

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:38 am

starting to see flurries. Moist system punching right through dew points in low teens.

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