February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

This is how much precip has fallen before the H7 low is over NYC Metro (aka before dry slotting). It’s still a historic storm. Imagine if there wasn’t a dry slot, though? This would move into Frankzilla territory

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:700mb low Monday afternoon on the 12z NAM. This shows the best lift setting up across NEPA, HV and NW NJ. For the coast, ideally we would want this low OFFSHORE. But it seems we have been seeing a more west trend since yesterday afternoon on the models. Hopefully this is the extent of the west trend.

Another northward shift with the snowfall axis. I need 50 miles. The changes I’m seeing aloft make me think we still adjust west-northwest from here overall. Interesting battle between us here Frank, and I wouldn’t want it any other way hahaha

The storm is relentless. Keeps on trending stronger. Hey, I would want the whole board to cash in! One thing though is at 250mb, I’m seeing a jet streak that is well off the coast. I wonder if that holds the low where NAM had it or even shift it east-southeast in future runs

3K NAM

Frank are you on board with nws who are go by nam and gfs? It appears you like the nam which is funny years ago u hated it. They are also go by gfs. If it does what you just said what would that do for snow totals?

Frank_Wx wrote:3K NAM

you get blitzed you get blitzed and you get blitzed!!! This is amazing.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:3K NAM

you get blitzed you get blitzed and you get blitzed!!! This is amazing.

this reminds of the buzzard of the 96

I meant the blizzardof96

Can you guts imagine the drifts we are gonna have!! My back door to my building gets the most buildup I've even seen the snow make it inside a few inches

The excitement from this storm is giving everybody typosis.

12k NAM is a three way tie between me, Rb's parents and Snowman or Bill g's house at 22 and that's without ratios which will be higher IMO. It will be interesting to see where the bullseye ends up. Or maybe it's just such widespread heavy area when it's a ll said and done we all bullseye.

Stepping away for the day. After awhile the maps can make your expectations so high the event can't possibly live up to the expectations. I'm starting to hear alot of that euphoria before the event on various forums.

frank 638 wrote:I meant the blizzardof96

I was go say who cares about a bird u saw in 96 lol and try again with spaces lol. Ya this is go be epic. Even if we don't fall in the highest atea we will be very close looks like a matter of a few inches difference. Not a big deal to me.

Frank_Wx wrote:

wow why such a difference from pivotal as or is it just cuz it's zoomed in? I see 24 or so on that those totals over nj are those for real?max 35.4!! Wowee

jmanley32 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:I meant the blizzardof96

I was go say who cares about a bird u saw in 96 lol and try again with spaces lol. Ya this is go be epic. Even if we don't fall in the highest atea we will be very close looks like a matter of a few inches difference. Not a big deal to me.

ur right This is going to be exciting storm for everyone and we deserve this

frank 638 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:I meant the blizzardof96

I was go say who cares about a bird u saw in 96 lol and try again with spaces lol. Ya this is go be epic. Even if we don't fall in the highest atea we will be very close looks like a matter of a few inches difference. Not a big deal to me.

ur right This is going to be exciting storm for everyone and we deserve this

ok well going off the new map Frank posted more detailed I need those 24+ areas to come hither lol

Bernie ray I thinks nyc will get ddt dreaded dry tongue and can even go over to plain rain total less than 12” what do some of you knowable guys and gals think

frank 638 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:3K NAM

you get blitzed you get blitzed and you get blitzed!!! This is amazing.

this reminds of the buzzard of the 96

Yeah, it does, and it looks like 96 right now the way it's unfolding on radar..

Frank_Wx wrote:3K NAM

MAN ALIVE!! 10" imby from the 3k NAM in it's range!!

Where does it come from? Front end? Back end? I'm trying to figure it out, and there's a lot of info to ingest. And the kid are all up in my face trying to figure out what we are doing today too! lol

Half of the models seem to favor more mixing down here (2-4" front end imby, not much back end, aka rb's thinking). Half seem to favor less mixing 6-10" (stronger front end thump, 1-2" on the back end, aka Frank/BillG's thinking). How much of that strong front end thump (i'm thinking a good 4-5" inches possible before the changeover over hits), survives the overrunning rain and lives into Tuesday. And when the low finally starts to depart, is their any juice this south for a back end hit.

And does that 250 jet streak change anything?????

I live in that black dot. Seems to be two days worth of models dumping on me. Nice knowing you.

Do any of the models support what Bernie is saying or does he think the Strom will trend in that direction and the models don't show it yet?

I guess this is what makes the weather so exciting and frustrating at times, you're never quite sure what actually going to happen until it happens

I think Bernie doesnt know what he is taking about, I respect him as a met do not get me wrong but IMO he is wrong this time. Not bashing him just think thats not likely. Right now its showing near 1.5-2x that so on nam. until i see models showing less im not go buy that.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:12k NAM is a three way tie between me, Rb's parents and Snowman or Bill g's house at 22 and that's without ratios which will be higher IMO. It will be interesting to see where the bullseye ends up. Or maybe it's just such  widespread heavy area when it's a ll said and done we all bullseye.

Stepping away for the day. After awhile the maps can make your expectations so high the event can't possibly live up to the expectations. I'm starting to hear alot of that euphoria before the event on various forums.

May one of the three of us win this jackpot. And rb, what the heck are you doing in LBI? lol

lglickman1 wrote:Do any of the models support what Bernie is saying or does he think the Strom will trend in that direction and the models don't show it yet?

I didn’t watch his video, but I’d assume he’s in my camp, where he’s planning on future corrections in the modeling that are not yet being shown.

frank 638 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:I meant the blizzardof96

I was go say who cares about a bird u saw in 96 lol and try again with spaces lol. Ya this is go be epic. Even if we don't fall in the highest atea we will be very close looks like a matter of a few inches difference. Not a big deal to me.

ur right This is going to be exciting storm for everyone and we deserve this

well as lg just posted rayno rained on our parade suggesting nyc metro might see less than 12 inches, wth. where does he get that from, i will be sorely annoyed if this is true, ill have to step away from forum if that happens or irish will kill me lol

Rgem is east. 9" by 1pm tomorrow gonna be a great run