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February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:54 am

Thanks for all the input everyone. Man- some models show a really nice hit down here. IKON, NAM, GFS (what!!!).  More of a back end thump in play maybe. Dry slotting, I've seen it save us down here before in the Jan 16 storm. The SE last second tick. Lot of positive game day indicators.

Every 12z suite has favored the shore and every 00z suite has killed it. Is this simply daytime model bias in play? If that storm doesn't stay off shore, i think the coast is toast due to very heavy rains not only wiping out the front end, but also costing us the heavier snowfall b/c its heavy rain, and then there is no juice left when the tucked low finally departs. Also radar shows the poo line creeping up the coast by late afternoon. Lots of negative game day indicators.

Gonna see if PA hotels indoor swimming pools are open.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:59 am

@GreyBeard wrote:Snow coming in a lot sooner than forecast. Just hoping we don't get the dreaded mixing issues out here on long island.it compacts everything, adds weight and makes it a hell of a lot harder to move around. Give me that fluffy powder, that's the stuff i like. I'm getting picky now, but i consider that a privilege that comes with age lol. I hope everyone gets what they want, just stay safe out there.

TO ALL NJ WX BOARD - OVERRUNNING STORMS START USUALLY FASTER THAN PROJECTED!! AND........IT'S HAPPENING!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:01 pm

12 Noon and I can report the following:
1. People at the local convenience store are acting like maniacs, so the panic is real.
and, more importantly
2. I have a steady Light Snow falling here with a temp of 27*!
It's underway my friends!!!
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:02 pm

How about that place Great Wolf's Lodge in Pa. Never been there, not sure where it is exactly, but i know they have a lot of stuff for kids. Something too consider.

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Post by Grselig Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:06 pm

@billg315 wrote:12 Noon and I can report the following:
1. People at the local convenience store are acting like maniacs, so the panic is real.
and, more importantly
2. I have a steady Light Snow falling here with a temp of 27*!
It's underway my friends!!!

Funny.  Whole Foods online was impossible.  So I went to the store, which was very manageable and no panic (except, of course, for me).  Trader Joes had the long line outside.
Wayne, NJ
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:08 pm

@amugs wrote:
@GreyBeard wrote:Snow coming in a lot sooner than forecast. Just hoping we don't get the dreaded mixing issues out here on long island.it compacts everything, adds weight and makes it a hell of a lot harder to move around. Give me that fluffy powder, that's the stuff i like. I'm getting picky now, but i consider that a privilege that comes with age lol. I hope everyone gets what they want, just stay safe out there.

TO ALL NJ WX BOARD - OVERRUNNING STORMS START USUALLY FASTER THAN PROJECTED!! AND........IT'S HAPPENING!




NO NEED TO YELL MUGS 



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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:10 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@GreyBeard wrote:Snow coming in a lot sooner than forecast. Just hoping we don't get the dreaded mixing issues out here on long island.it compacts everything, adds weight and makes it a hell of a lot harder to move around. Give me that fluffy powder, that's the stuff i like. I'm getting picky now, but i consider that a privilege that comes with age lol. I hope everyone gets what they want, just stay safe out there.

TO ALL NJ WX BOARD - OVERRUNNING STORMS START USUALLY FASTER THAN PROJECTED!! AND........IT'S HAPPENING!




NO NEED TO YELL MUGS 




I don't know, if ever a circumstance called for some joyous outbursts, this might be it.
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Post by Zhukov1945 Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:11 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:How about that place Great Wolf's Lodge in Pa. Never been there, not sure where it is exactly, but i know they have a lot of stuff for kids. Something too consider.

Great Wolf Lodge is a lot of fun. Been multiple times with kids. Kalahari in same spot bigger and more modern but not as family oriented. Older kids, latter probably better. Younger ones, the former.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:11 pm

Officially flurries here on LBI. Gonna enjoy it while it lasts lol

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:14 pm

@amugs wrote:It's all coming together peeps - sit back adn enjoy the show. Snowing in Monmouth County already? - Overrunning likes to come sooner to dance
Lastly, every Miller B takes a jog east .....put that in your hats
Going to be prolific, historic and memorable - take video, pics etc.

hey mugs we here in Hazlet just seeing a couple of flakes..
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:15 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@GreyBeard wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@GreyBeard wrote:Snow coming in a lot sooner than forecast. Just hoping we don't get the dreaded mixing issues out here on long island.it compacts everything, adds weight and makes it a hell of a lot harder to move around. Give me that fluffy powder, that's the stuff i like. I'm getting picky now, but i consider that a privilege that comes with age lol. I hope everyone gets what they want, just stay safe out there.

TO ALL NJ WX BOARD - OVERRUNNING STORMS START USUALLY FASTER THAN PROJECTED!! AND........IT'S HAPPENING!




NO NEED TO YELL MUGS 






I don't know, if ever a circumstance called for some joyous outbursts, this might be it.




I think he was scolding me because he said it before lol.All good

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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:16 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:How about that place Great Wolf's Lodge in Pa. Never been there, not sure where it is exactly, but i know they have a lot of stuff for kids. Something too consider.

Appreciate the thoughts Grey Beard and Zuhkov. The general thought has been to hit like a decent three star place, and get 2 rooms at like 80$/night each. The whole cost would be less than one night at GWL.

All signs point to aborting the mission due to the NJ swimming pool 'moratorium' and the fact we look to squeeze at least a good daytime thump, that should actually thump.

And then we'll just wishcast from there.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:19 pm

@DAYBLAZER wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:my sister is up by lake hopatgong area they always get more snow...my father is in Caldwell they always do well...I would go north son. To those hills. ..lol get those kids that snow.

Hi Mom-- I forgot you had family up here in my neighborhood....hope they are ready for what the models are showing up here!

I'm still feeling burned from the December storm, which had me progged for 18-24 right up until go time, then ended up with 10 inches. Still a good storm, but obviously expectations were higher.

With THIS storm, somehow expectations seem to be even HIGHER up in my area. I'm starting to let myself think I may see an 18 inch + event......

Rb, Bill, mugs, Frank, Anyone-- can I start looking forward to this now? Or is there still room for Sussex to have drastic changes to the forecast????
Yes, while I was online at starbucks I called her and I had to lower the speaker..she was not very lady like with her response to me asking if she is ready for all the snow they will get. Very Happy Very Happy I hope you and yours stay safe!!! I am sure you will keep us posted..she wanted to hang up on me..I told her..she moved to the mountains and I moved to the coast..we should have flipped..lol
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:21 pm

Okay GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE. It has commenced for the region. Zoo and I won't see a flake until 4 pm up here in NENJ always the last to but doesn't matter.
Time for observations peeps, we analyzed every model and got tremendous input from all. Hope we did a good job tempering expectations up until Friday and Yesterday but led you to be prepared..
Thank you for the positive juju and may we all have a memorable experience in a great way (if you so choose to sleep) a ragging.....snow storm. God Bless, God Speed and Be safe!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:22 pm

@billg315 wrote:12 Noon and I can report the following:
1. People at the local convenience store are acting like maniacs, so the panic is real.
and, more importantly
2. I have a steady Light Snow falling here with a temp of 27*!
It's underway my friends!!!

Billings..I usually order everything online for delievery..my son wanted a couple of books I went to B&N first one in said ok will browse a couple of min(miss doing that) within 15 min the store was MOBBED..I paid and said peace out..there is even a run on books.. Very Happy Very Happy
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:22 pm

https://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:23 pm

Flakes are flying in Bayville. Game time...

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Post by Artechmetals Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:23 pm

@amugs wrote:Okay GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE. It has commenced for the region. Zoo and I won't see a flake until 4 pm up here in NENJ always the last to but doesn't matter.
Time for observations peeps, we analyzed every model and got tremendous input from all. Hope we did a good job tempering expectations up until Friday and Yesterday but led you to be prepared..
Thank you for the positive juju and may we all have a memorable experience in a great way (if you so choose to sleep) a ragging.....snow storm.  God Bless, God Speed and Be safe!!
Hey Mugs , news 12 still going with 8 to 12 😂 I’m only 10 miles from you in north Caldwell why are their numbers so low ?
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:23 pm

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 21 993326132_inxr1kphla(2).gif.8eef943e57bbf0a59378b316b507ce06

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by emokid51783 Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:24 pm

What time should we look for the CCB to start forming so we can make jackpot guesses?

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:25 pm

@Artechmetals wrote:
@amugs wrote:Okay GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE. It has commenced for the region. Zoo and I won't see a flake until 4 pm up here in NENJ always the last to but doesn't matter.
Time for observations peeps, we analyzed every model and got tremendous input from all. Hope we did a good job tempering expectations up until Friday and Yesterday but led you to be prepared..
Thank you for the positive juju and may we all have a memorable experience in a great way (if you so choose to sleep) a ragging.....snow storm.  God Bless, God Speed and Be safe!!
Hey Mugs , news 12 still going with 8 to 12 😂 I’m only 10 miles from you in north Caldwell why are their numbers so low ?

I have no idea they are buying the RPM model and discounting all others.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:25 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@billg315 wrote:12 Noon and I can report the following:
1. People at the local convenience store are acting like maniacs, so the panic is real.
and, more importantly
2. I have a steady Light Snow falling here with a temp of 27*!
It's underway my friends!!!

Billings..I usually order everything online for delievery..my son wanted a couple of books I went to B&N first one in said ok will browse a couple of min(miss doing that) within 15 min the store was MOBBED..I paid and said peace out..there is even a run on books.. Very Happy Very Happy

When there is a run on books, ... we know this is a historic event. lol
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:26 pm

@emokid51783 wrote:What time should we look for the CCB to start forming so we can make jackpot guesses?
When rhe coastal takes over could be early AM Monday through the evening/nighttime I would say.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by dsix85 Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:26 pm

Emo-long time no chat brother! How is JC looking on this storm?

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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:26 pm

Tomer Burg with his (valid) concern about the dry slot moving into NYC metro tomorrow night, cutting back a bit on some of the bigger totals being modeled/forecast.

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