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February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

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February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by mmanisca Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:32 pm

@billg315 wrote:The 0z NAM, which is not a big change from the 18z NAM is kind of why my snow map looks the way it does. It likes the warm air intrusion across south and coastal NJ, and doesn't like the heavy snow getting back too far west. Could be out to lunch, but that 18z run spooked me on going stronger with big totals outside the jackpot and NW, and this does as well.

It stayed in line with 18z. I like the thermal profiles over Long Island on it! Lol back in December it was warming the 850 over Suffolk and sure enough we went over to sleet in my area. Hopefully it’s hanging in there below freezing works out!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:33 pm

Hi-Res NAM

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 60161693294ef-thumb-png-007c8e842c2de384af186958e19e8766

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:35 pm

10am tuesday it is still snowing on the nam

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Image.png.4a0dc5df9447601a70b20fb07f504749

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:36 pm

Roidzilla

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Image.png.1172c2dbc91daaeee87eea3097decb0c

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February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Interesting

Post by hurrysundown23 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:36 pm

For Sayreville, NJ per TWC inane snow totals

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/22b0540f93d84a08aee6e6e55d24a7a031254bd2138e5aacaa34d8807d2c621f

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:37 pm

Hi-Res

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 1612256400-iX0tIhfNAME

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Post by dsix85 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:38 pm

Wow SRoc we cashed in the goods here in Suffolk!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:46 pm

These are the top analogs that closely resemble the pattern and set-up to our looming storm. Blizzard of 96' is number one.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2021013012&map=tbl

Unfortunately I was only 4 years old. Would love to live through something like that.....

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Post by mmanisca Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:46 pm

@dsix85 wrote:Wow SRoc we cashed in the goods here in Suffolk!
yeah! Certainly looks good but let’s see if it’s the trend!
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Post by dsix85 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:47 pm

Frank- did the coast trend colder on this run?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:51 pm

@dsix85 wrote:Frank- did the coast trend colder on this run?

No real trend. Same as prior run. EURO is the warmest model but also shows the best snow/dynamics (among the globals).

This is the warmest frame of the GFS. NAM is similiar.

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Gfs_T850_neus_11

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Post by WeatherBob Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:54 pm

I vividly remember the 1996 storm. Surface low moving along a stationary elongated SW to NE trough. A coastal front formed and the Surface low moved NE along a coastal front and gave us 12 in of snow. Then the potent 500 MB low cruised off the SE Jersey coast about 6 to 8 hrs later moving NE. That gave us another 12 inches in a 4 to 6 hr period.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:54 pm

00z RGEM

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 I_nw_EST_2021013100_027

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February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 I_nw_EST_2021013100_041

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:56 pm

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 I_nw_EST_2021013100_046

RGEM bring home the capocollo

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:00 pm

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Captur11

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:03 pm

Just want to say goodbye to all of my members who live on Long Island. This death band on the NAM bring you 5 inches/hour and I'm not sure you will survive it. Its been a blast!

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 7BCB9582-885E-4311-A060-8B90750F752A.png.c3b172a356b0283ce917b07eab9a3e7d

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Post by WeatherBob Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:04 pm

Is it game on with the Rgem Frank? I thought you tossed the last run of it?
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:06 pm

The slow nature of the evolution of this storm, existing arctic air and maturation process below our latitude gives more credence to these insane amounts of snow. Stalls are the way these things can happen. But it just all has to be right.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:08 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Just want to say goodbye to all of my members who live on Long Island. This death band on the NAM bring you 5 inches/hour and I'm not sure you will survive it. Its been a blast!

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 7BCB9582-885E-4311-A060-8B90750F752A.png.c3b172a356b0283ce917b07eab9a3e7d

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Nam.thumb.PNG.3c0af14f3e7c893017ad0ffead0f916b

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Post by mwilli Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:09 pm

5 inches/hour your right Frank its over n out. hempstead,Hoestra u. Uniondale buried

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:11 pm

The RGEM has literally lost its mind.

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 1603853248_sn10_acc.us_ne(1).png.0e20a45d81650696e7f459e94a246f84

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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:13 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The RGEM has literally lost its mind.

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 1603853248_sn10_acc.us_ne(1).png.0e20a45d81650696e7f459e94a246f84
Four feet of snow in the Lehigh Valley. Nothing unusual about that. LOL.
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Post by dsix85 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:13 pm

How does PA get 40+ and Long Island barely a foot?

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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:15 pm

@dsix85 wrote:How does PA get 40+ and Long Island barely a foot?
I think in the end the answer is: it does not. lol
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Post by mmanisca Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:15 pm

@billg315 wrote:The 0z NAM, which is not a big change from the 18z NAM is kind of why my snow map looks the way it does. It likes the warm air intrusion across south and coastal NJ, and doesn't like the heavy snow getting back too far west. Could be out to lunch, but that 18z run spooked me on going stronger with big totals outside the jackpot and NW, and this does as well.

It stayed in line with 18z. I like the thermal profiles over Long Island on it! Lol back in December it was warming the 850 over Suffolk and sure enough we went over to sleet in my area. Hopefully it’s hanging in there below freezing works out!
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