Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

by **mmanisca** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:32 pm

billg315 wrote:The 0z NAM, which is not a big change from the 18z NAM is kind of why my snow map looks the way it does. It likes the warm air intrusion across south and coastal NJ, and doesn't like the heavy snow getting back too far west. Could be out to lunch, but that 18z run spooked me on going stronger with big totals outside the jackpot and NW, and this does as well.

It stayed in line with 18z. I like the thermal profiles over Long Island on it! Lol back in December it was warming the 850 over Suffolk and sure enough we went over to sleet in my area. Hopefully it’s hanging in there below freezing works out!

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:33 pm

Hi-Res NAM

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 60161693294ef-thumb-png-007c8e842c2de384af186958e19e8766

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:35 pm

10am tuesday it is still snowing on the nam

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Image.png.4a0dc5df9447601a70b20fb07f504749

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Image.png.4a0dc5df9447601a70b20fb07f504749

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:36 pm

Roidzilla

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Image.png.1172c2dbc91daaeee87eea3097decb0c

by hurrysundown23 Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:36 pm

For Sayreville, NJ per TWC inane snow totals

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/22b0540f93d84a08aee6e6e55d24a7a031254bd2138e5aacaa34d8807d2c621f

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:37 pm

Hi-Res

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 1612256400-iX0tIhfNAME

by **dsix85** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:38 pm

Wow SRoc we cashed in the goods here in Suffolk!

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:46 pm

These are the top analogs that closely resemble the pattern and set-up to our looming storm. Blizzard of 96' is number one.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2021013012&map=tbl

Unfortunately I was only 4 years old. Would love to live through something like that.....

by **mmanisca** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:46 pm

dsix85 wrote:Wow SRoc we cashed in the goods here in Suffolk!

yeah! Certainly looks good but let’s see if it’s the trend!

by **dsix85** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:47 pm

Frank- did the coast trend colder on this run?

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:51 pm

dsix85 wrote:Frank- did the coast trend colder on this run?

No real trend. Same as prior run. EURO is the warmest model but also shows the best snow/dynamics (among the globals).

This is the warmest frame of the GFS. NAM is similiar.

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Gfs_T850_neus_11

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Gfs_T850_neus_11

by **WeatherBob** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:54 pm

I vividly remember the 1996 storm. Surface low moving along a stationary elongated SW to NE trough. A coastal front formed and the Surface low moved NE along a coastal front and gave us 12 in of snow. Then the potent 500 MB low cruised off the SE Jersey coast about 6 to 8 hrs later moving NE. That gave us another 12 inches in a 4 to 6 hr period.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:54 pm

00z RGEM

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by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:56 pm

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 I_nw_EST_2021013100_046

RGEM bring home the capocollo

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:00 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:03 pm

Just want to say goodbye to all of my members who live on Long Island. This death band on the NAM bring you 5 inches/hour and I'm not sure you will survive it. Its been a blast!

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 7BCB9582-885E-4311-A060-8B90750F752A.png.c3b172a356b0283ce917b07eab9a3e7d

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by **WeatherBob** Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:04 pm

Is it game on with the Rgem Frank? I thought you tossed the last run of it?

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:06 pm

The slow nature of the evolution of this storm, existing arctic air and maturation process below our latitude gives more credence to these insane amounts of snow. Stalls are the way these things can happen. But it just all has to be right.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:08 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Just want to say goodbye to all of my members who live on Long Island. This death band on the NAM bring you 5 inches/hour and I'm not sure you will survive it. Its been a blast!

by mwilli Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:09 pm

5 inches/hour your right Frank its over n out. hempstead,Hoestra u. Uniondale buried

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:11 pm

The RGEM has literally lost its mind.

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 1603853248_sn10_acc.us_ne(1).png.0e20a45d81650696e7f459e94a246f84

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 1603853248_sn10_acc.us_ne(1).png.0e20a45d81650696e7f459e94a246f84

by **billg315** Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:13 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The RGEM has literally lost its mind.

Four feet of snow in the Lehigh Valley. Nothing unusual about that. LOL.

by **dsix85** Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:13 pm

How does PA get 40+ and Long Island barely a foot?

by **billg315** Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:15 pm

dsix85 wrote:How does PA get 40+ and Long Island barely a foot?

I think in the end the answer is: it does not. lol

by **mmanisca** Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:15 pm

billg315 wrote:The 0z NAM, which is not a big change from the 18z NAM is kind of why my snow map looks the way it does. It likes the warm air intrusion across south and coastal NJ, and doesn't like the heavy snow getting back too far west. Could be out to lunch, but that 18z run spooked me on going stronger with big totals outside the jackpot and NW, and this does as well.

It stayed in line with 18z. I like the thermal profiles over Long Island on it! Lol back in December it was warming the 850 over Suffolk and sure enough we went over to sleet in my area. Hopefully it’s hanging in there below freezing works out!

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