February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

Cherish this moment, ladies and gentlemen. We do not get this type of opportunity often, and it is the whole reason why all of us signed up for this wonderful forum in the first place.

Frank, hats off to you for all you've done to provide this space for all of us to gather and discuss events like this. It's a wonderful thing.

Now let's do this.

@heehaw453 wrote:1" otg.  snowing moderately.  

23/20

What's the 23/20 mean?

Can someone tell me the general timing for the storm? My daughter works for the post office and we are trying to figure out of she should bring my grandson to me tonight or wait until the morning. Will it still be safe to venture out in the morning like say 7am? We are in Eatontown Monmouth county

@Rooster89 wrote: Middletown.

My hometown! Grew up in the neighborhood next to HS South, class of 2010. My parents still live down there. Good stuff! Hope you cash in!

@Angela0621 wrote:Can someone tell me the general timing for the storm?  My daughter works for the post office and we are trying to figure out of she should bring my grandson to me tonight or wait until the morning.  Will it still be safe to venture out in the morning like say 7am?  We are in Eatontown Monmouth county

Tonight is the answer. Morning will not be possible.

@Frank_Wx Great call and you have the Riodzilla in full effect as we said lets wait and pull the trigger after teh 12Z and here we have it!

One for the ages folks.

HRRR

Mt Holly agrees with Frank.  

Thanks to all of you for your information. This forum is where I come when I need reliable info. Appreciate you all!! I live on the south shore of Long Island in west islip. Do you think we will be getting mixing here?

@GreyBeard wrote:

@heehaw453 wrote:1" otg.  snowing moderately.  

23/20

What's the 23/20 mean?

temp/dew point

18z NAM is rolling

Here is 700mb. Remember we want the center to stay to our south and east. Let's see where the NAM takes it

Now here is 850mb winds on the 18z NAM, or low level jet. I mean, COME ON!!! MADONNE

@Frank_Wx wrote:HRRR

Looking at the HRRR on Long Island we get sleet across the entire Island around 3-4 Monday afternoon............... Not Happy about that

Wind gusts at the surface per 18z NAM

Isn’t the HRRR model the best short range model that NOAA has?

@Frank_Wx wrote:Wind gusts at the surface per 18z NAM

Yikes. Talk about Total Whiteout conditions.

@Frank_Wx wrote:18z NAM is rolling

Here is 700mb. Remember we want the center to stay to our south and east. Let's see where the NAM takes it

Looks like it develops around Cape May and is moving due north. That means SNJ/CNJ would get into either some mix or dry slot (per NAM). Let's see where it goes from here

@WeatherBob wrote:Isn’t the HRRR model the best short range model that NOAA has?

Yes but I only use it for hours 1 to 12.

Anything beyond 12 hours is volatile

NAM is cutting down the dry slot north of 195 in NJ. That will be critical and determines who gets the insane amounts.

YOU CAN NOT ASK FOR BETER PEEPS - I MEAN JUST INCREDIBLE!
700MB SE OF NYC = ANNHILATION

This is how much precip has fallen so far on the NAM (through 4pm tomorrow)

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@WeatherBob wrote:Isn’t the HRRR model the best short range model that NOAA has?

Yes but I only use it for hours 1 to 12.

Anything beyond 12 hours is volatile

Got ya Thanks Frank

The latest 48-hour HRRR puts northern NJ, southern NY & northeast PA in the "sweet spot" of heavy snow bands on Monday ️

Snow rates could reach 2-3 inches per hour at times during the afternoon.

Yellow outline <=> potential for 1 foot
Orange outline <=> potential for 2 feet pic.twitter.com/DexhvxUTQZ

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) January 31, 2021

@Frank_Wx wrote:Wind gusts at the surface per 18z NAM

This will likely cause NWS to insure blizzard warnings.

And I say again, I think the Euro has the best handle on this storm. I still think the NAM is struggling with the placement and evolution.