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February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

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February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 2 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

Post by DAYBLAZER Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:49 pm

Cherish this moment, ladies and gentlemen. We do not get this type of opportunity often, and it is the whole reason why all of us signed up for this wonderful forum in the first place.

Frank, hats off to you for all you've done to provide this space for all of us to gather and discuss events like this. It's a wonderful thing.

Now let's do this.
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:50 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:1" otg.  snowing moderately.  

23/20

What's the 23/20 mean?

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Post by Angela0621 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:51 pm

Can someone tell me the general timing for the storm? My daughter works for the post office and we are trying to figure out of she should bring my grandson to me tonight or wait until the morning. Will it still be safe to venture out in the morning like say 7am? We are in Eatontown Monmouth county
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Post by DAYBLAZER Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:52 pm

@Rooster89 wrote: Middletown.

My hometown! Grew up in the neighborhood next to HS South, class of 2010. My parents still live down there. Good stuff! Hope you cash in!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:52 pm

@Angela0621 wrote:Can someone tell me the general timing for the storm?  My daughter works for the post office and we are trying to figure out of she should bring my grandson to me tonight or wait until the morning.  Will it still be safe to venture out in the morning like say 7am?  We are in Eatontown Monmouth county

Tonight is the answer. Morning will not be possible.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:54 pm

@Frank_Wx Great call and you have the Riodzilla in full effect as we said lets wait and pull the trigger after teh 12Z and here we have it!

One for the ages folks.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:56 pm

HRRR

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 2 Sn10-acc-us-ne

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:57 pm

Mt Holly agrees with Frank.  

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 2 Mtholl12

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Post by jtswife Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:57 pm

Thanks to all of you for your information. This forum is where I come when I need reliable info. Appreciate you all!! I live on the south shore of Long Island in west islip. Do you think we will be getting mixing here?


Last edited by jtswife on Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:58 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:1" otg.  snowing moderately.  

23/20

What's the 23/20 mean?

temp/dew point

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:58 pm

18z NAM is rolling

Here is 700mb. Remember we want the center to stay to our south and east. Let's see where the NAM takes it

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 2 700wh.us_ne

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:59 pm

Now here is 850mb winds on the 18z NAM, or low level jet. I mean, COME ON!!! MADONNE

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 2 BBDB6661-2-D04-4-BC7-8-FB3-ECDED4-EA1-E6-B-thumb-png-25758353fe95e25edafed63318630e4c

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Post by Joe Snow Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:00 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:HRRR

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 2 Sn10-acc-us-ne

Looking at the HRRR on Long Island we get sleet across the entire Island around 3-4 Monday afternoon............... Not Happy about that
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:00 pm

Wind gusts at the surface per 18z NAM

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 2 623781269_sfcgust_mph.us_state_ne_s(1).png.0ecff814bb90ca98043e2b789f2d6f6d

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Post by WeatherBob Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:01 pm

Isn’t the HRRR model the best short range model that NOAA has?
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:02 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Wind gusts at the surface per 18z NAM

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 2 623781269_sfcgust_mph.us_state_ne_s(1).png.0ecff814bb90ca98043e2b789f2d6f6d

Yikes. Talk about Total Whiteout conditions.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:02 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:18z NAM is rolling

Here is 700mb. Remember we want the center to stay to our south and east. Let's see where the NAM takes it

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 2 700wh.us_ne

Looks like it develops around Cape May and is moving due north. That means SNJ/CNJ would get into either some mix or dry slot (per NAM). Let's see where it goes from here

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 2 Floop-nam-2021013118.700hv.us_ne.gif.f8f7e8fcccfdada4efe469c4c9eb7538

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:04 pm

@WeatherBob wrote:Isn’t the HRRR model the best short range model that NOAA has?

Yes but I only use it for hours 1 to 12.

Anything beyond 12 hours is volatile

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:04 pm

NAM is cutting down the dry slot north of 195 in NJ. That will be critical and determines who gets the insane amounts.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:05 pm

YOU CAN NOT ASK FOR BETER PEEPS - I MEAN JUST INCREDIBLE!
700MB SE OF NYC = ANNHILATION

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 2 1596674278_ezgif.com-gif-maker(4).gif.a5cd3937e73dc579b267872032748b35


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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:05 pm

This is how much precip has fallen so far on the NAM (through 4pm tomorrow)

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 2 Qpf_acc.us_ne

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Post by Joe Snow Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:05 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@WeatherBob wrote:Isn’t the HRRR model the best short range model that NOAA has?

Yes but I only use it for hours 1 to 12.

Anything beyond 12 hours is volatile

Got ya Thanks Frank
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:06 pm


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Post by CnWestMilford76 Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Wind gusts at the surface per 18z NAM

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 2 623781269_sfcgust_mph.us_state_ne_s(1).png.0ecff814bb90ca98043e2b789f2d6f6d

This will likely cause NWS to insure blizzard warnings.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:06 pm

And I say again, I think the Euro has the best handle on this storm. I still think the NAM is struggling with the placement and evolution.

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