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Long Range Discussions 21.0

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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:35 pm

DON'T LOOK!
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 6 Pratep20
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:35 pm

This pattern still has lot of opportunities.

Saturday night through Tuesday several opportunities for frozen precip. The storm tracks will determine how much mid-level cold will be able to stay around. Low level cold will be present, so it's either a lot of ice and/or snow.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:37 pm

@aiannone wrote:DON'T LOOK!
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 6 Pratep20

Euro is actually moved more towards a coastal idea. CMC, Ukie and GFSv16 are in the coastal camp now. Should be interesting.

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Post by mmanisca Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:34 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
330 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-111000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0005.210211T0300Z-210211T1500Z/
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
330 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3
inches.

* WHERE...New York City, Long Island, and most of northeast New
Jersey.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Hazardous conditions
will likely impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:36 pm

@mmanisca wrote:URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
330 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-111000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0005.210211T0300Z-210211T1500Z/
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
330 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3
 inches.

* WHERE...New York City, Long Island, and most of northeast New
 Jersey.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Hazardous conditions
 will likely impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.
If the Bronx gets 2-3 inches and I do not I would be very surprised I am closer to the Bronx than I am westchester (I am in westchester but a 2 minute walk down the road and I am in the city.) We will see.
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Post by Irish Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:40 pm

Winter Weather Advisory from WED 7:00 PM EST until THU 12:00 PM EST

Old Bridge, NJ Weather


Weather Alerts-Old Bridge, NJ
Winter Weather Advisory from WED 7:00 PM EST until THU 12:00 PM EST
Action Recommended
Execute a pre-planned activity identified in the instructions
Issued By
Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Portions of central and northern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania
Description
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY...

WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

WHERE...Portions of central and northern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to noon EST Thursday.

IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is forecast to move in from the west by late this evening, continuing through the Thursday morning commute, before shifting east of the area by the midday hours. Although snow rates will not be particularly high, temperatures are expected to be below freezing, so roads and sidewalks are expected to become snow-covered.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:01 pm

Why are these WWA being posted in LR thread? Theres a thread for these two events.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:02 pm

@aiannone wrote:DON'T LOOK!
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 6 Pratep20
that could get ugly, not much movement to south and the coast would have quite a ice storm, the further inland the worse it would be due to thicker forestry.
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:56 pm

X marks teh spot - a very active pattern upcoming and beyond!! From Nsfw Wx

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 6 Et5KO9NXAAICgN4?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:25 pm

OH BOY better hope not - cold surface - 20's and warm mid levels - 1994 redux here????

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 6 Zr_acc.us_ne.png.81d4226fc3966fda14be302ecbb68e16

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:56 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:DON'T LOOK!
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 6 Pratep20

Euro is actually moved more towards a coastal idea.  CMC, Ukie and GFSv16 are in the coastal camp now.  Should be interesting.

48 hour H5 trend map shows heights trending stronger / more amped along the coast ahead of a developing primary in the central part of the country. There’s just enough phasing to deepen the primary and keep it strong enough for it to push through banana High blocking to the north. However, either better trends with the Highs (trend stronger and/or south), or weaker trends with the primary, would flatten heights along the coast and increase the chances for significant snow Tuesday next week. I feel optimistic about that happening given the overall base state of the pattern.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 6 964ad510

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Post by TheAresian Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:30 pm

The system on the 16th or thereabouts is where my eyes are locked. I know it's too early to be thinking about snowfall totals, but the TT GFS map is showing that lovely pine green. As much as I dread the idea of having to shovel a foot and a half, the draw to watching it fall is irresistible.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:23 am

The 12 hour trend on the GFS is remarkable.

Look at the primary low over Ohio and how it has trended weaker while the secondary takes over much earlier. This keeps cold air locked into our area. The banana high setup to the north is acting as our block this time around, while replenishing our area with arctic cold.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:02 am

This mornings GFS for Tuesday. No one should take any of these amounts lierally especially NYC and South. A lot of the totals below and south and east of I95 and I80 include a prolonged period of sleet/freezing rain. This far out who knows if either would even verify or if the line will be north of NYC. Those are the kind of things I wouldn't pay to much attention to until Saturday night/Sundays runs.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 6 Gfs_as23
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:13 am

Hopefully the GFS can show some consistency and keep the coastal idea. Within 5 days it does do a decent job of picking up on synoptic features especially when there is some agreement in its ensembles. I'd like to see a few runs of consistency. The Euro is doing its normal thing of getting the primary all wound up and cutting. The Ukie/Icon seem to favor coastal idea.

And there's this every time the Weather Channel App has said "watching a potential winter storm", I've gotten significant snow this season.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:53 am

Euro EPS - that is an icy look

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 6 60252b280b3ad.png.d0c6ab32bacdd44bfe69e4a37f6797c4

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:55 am

Sorry Alex not a good look for you but if we can get this puppy to push SE which I feel it will at this range then you guys will be fine too. SNJ not so much at this time but lots of time

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 6 322351198_eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_138(2).png.705c6cb07cf7ad62c6fab959b180a91b






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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:12 am

What's happening with Saturday?
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:17 am

@amugs wrote:Sorry Alex not  a good look for you but if we can get this puppy to push SE which I feel it will at this range then you guys will be fine too. SNJ not so much at this time but lots of time

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 6 322351198_eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_138(2).png.705c6cb07cf7ad62c6fab959b180a91b






Ooof yea, no coastal hugger please
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:19 am

12Z GFS for 1:00 PM on Tuesday. Obviously this will most likely waver back and forth. This is alot of sleet and freezing rain in Jersey, CT and PA though. The HV teeters right on that line of heavy snow or sleet.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 6 Gfs_ms10
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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:23 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:12Z GFS for 1:00 PM on Tuesday. Obviously this will most likely waver back and forth. This is alot of sleet and freezing rain in Jersey, CT and PA though. The HV teeters right on that line of heavy snow or sleet.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 6 Gfs_ms10

Wow, right CP.Half my roof gets sleet, the other half snow.Let's hope for SE tick on this one.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:23 am

Nice front end hit before the changeover in NNJ, NYC and LILong Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 6 Gfs_re11
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Post by phil155 Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:27 am

we need this to trend SE for sure, a major ice storm would just be awful

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Post by TheAresian Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:31 am

Major ice storm is right.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 6 Ice_st10

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Post by phil155 Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:37 am

If that verifies it will be terrible, I hope this trends SE and we get mostly snow

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