NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Long Range Discussions 21.0

+33
jimv45
oldtimer
hyde345
sabamfa
SENJsnowman
essexcountypete
SNOW MAN
algae888
docstox12
mmanisca
skinsfan1177
rb924119
mwilli
weatherwatchermom
CPcantmeasuresnow
dkodgis
TheAresian
Snow88
Zhukov1945
Mike1984
dsix85
sroc4
lglickman1
WeatherBob
heehaw453
Irish
phil155
billg315
jmanley32
aiannone
frank 638
amugs
Frank_Wx
37 posters

Page 5 of 15 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 10 ... 15  Next

Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:14 pm

OZ 12k NAM for Tuesday

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Namcon13

OZ 3K NAM for Tueday

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Nam3km10

One storm at a time, another 2-3 inches Tuesday to refresh everything, after that it's promising but iffy.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:19 pm

I have a thread for those storms!

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20053
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:18 pm

@amugs wrote:This map is just magical for us snow weenies. Just beautiful.
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Etp6v_10

I haven’t looked at anything in detail, and as I previously said, very most likely won’t be able to, but taking this verbatim, if you’re looking for another NESIS major event for somebody at least nearby, wait until the tail of that tropospheric PV dumbbells around and turns the corner........because brothers and sisters, THAT AINT NO JOKE. I may not be the wisest nor the oldest, but my limited experience tells me that evolution IS NOT an “if”, BUT A “when” if the above map is legitimate.

I should threaten to cancel Winter more often, I guess lmfao also, if you couldn’t tell, THIS IS ME GETTING EXCITED lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

essexcountypete, SENJsnowman and Irish like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:19 am

OH BOY RAY - dont jinx us or be a mush please LOL!!
Your input is extremely valuable here and welcomed so yuo may have to make sometime to post here brother. IF i have to after I pay Alex a visit on the Island I'll pay you a visit on the real and best regions island LOL!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12377
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by aiannone Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:27 am

@amugs wrote:OH BOY RAY - dont jinx us or be a mush please LOL!!
Your input is extremely valuable here and welcomed so yuo may have to make sometime to post here brother. IF i have to after I pay Alex a visit on the Island I'll pay you a visit on the real and best regions island LOL!

HAHA come to the real snow towns
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4265
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:47 pm

Wow the 14th!! This includes the snow from tomorrow, but we do not really see but a inch in some spots on the 11th so the 14th has G word potential on GFS verbatim, what do you guys think? It rides super close to the coast bringing in some rain and mixing we need it a bit more S & E but not a lot.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Sn10_a11
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18376
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:51 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow the 14th!! This includes the snow from tomorrow, but we do not really see but a inch in some spots on the 11th so the 14th has G word potential on GFS verbatim, what do you guys think? It rides super close to the coast bringing in some rain and mixing we need it a bit more S & E but not a lot.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Sn10_a11

To far out need to see what happens during the week
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:53 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Wow the 14th!! This includes the snow from tomorrow, but we do not really see but a inch in some spots on the 11th so the 14th has G word potential on GFS verbatim, what do you guys think? It rides super close to the coast bringing in some rain and mixing we need it a bit more S & E but not a lot.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Sn10_a11

To far out need to see what happens during the week
I am aware was just curious.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18376
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:20 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Wow the 14th!! This includes the snow from tomorrow, but we do not really see but a inch in some spots on the 11th so the 14th has G word potential on GFS verbatim, what do you guys think? It rides super close to the coast bringing in some rain and mixing we need it a bit more S & E but not a lot.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Sn10_a11

To far out need to see what happens during the week
I am aware was just curious.

Today's trends jman for late week and weekend have been drier and south
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:48 pm

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Image.png.23a5274fc65c624cb8bb06fa77038f49

Dr. Cohen very interesting. Shows the stratospheric warming events and the resulting weather events. How long will it as? Looks like until early to mid March.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12377
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by Irish Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:04 pm

This is where my attention is since tomorrow is a non event.

Irish

Posts : 428
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:07 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Wow the 14th!! This includes the snow from tomorrow, but we do not really see but a inch in some spots on the 11th so the 14th has G word potential on GFS verbatim, what do you guys think? It rides super close to the coast bringing in some rain and mixing we need it a bit more S & E but not a lot.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Sn10_a11

To far out need to see what happens during the week
I am aware was just curious.

Today's trends jman for late week and weekend have been drier and south
yeah saw that, still go see windshield wipers, its 6 days out to vday. The 11th if its south we may not get it as its 2 days out but who knows.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18376
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:25 pm

The northern s/w circled will dictate how Sunday evolves. Too much interaction with the PV amplifies heights along the coast. A PV more north allows for better separation and for north/south short waves to phase. Definitely one to watch

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 6f896310

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20053
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by amugs Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:13 am

This is a remarkably COLD HP my goodness

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 EtyRqucXcAEkXcc?format=png&name=medium

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12377
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by amugs Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:18 pm

GEFS losing cutters for VDAY storm - nice cluster by BM=bench mark

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_21

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12377
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:43 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The northern s/w circled will dictate how Sunday evolves. Too much interaction with the PV amplifies heights along the coast. A PV more north allows for better separation and for north/south short waves to phase. Definitely one to watch

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 6f896310

The 12z GFS showed a colder storm for the coast on Sunday. Although it’s still rain verbatim, N&W got into some heavier snow amounts. It was a nice trend, and it happened because of what I had stated last night.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 HaFYmQ

Check out the difference aloft between the 6z and 12z gfs. Look how there is greater separation between the southern s/w and the PV on the 12z gfs. This allows phasing to occur much more upstream as opposed in the Midwest which would result in a strong cutter.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20053
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by amugs Tue Feb 09, 2021 2:39 pm

Don't want it to phase early or else it cuts. Gefs and Eps have more coastal than cutters atb12Z than at 0 and 6z runs. What Friday's system does will help set up Sunday and the domino affect then Tuesday and Thursdays etc.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12377
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:25 pm

@amugs wrote:Don't want it to phase early or else it cuts. Gefs and Eps have more coastal than cutters atb12Z than at 0 and 6z runs. What Friday's system does will help set up Sunday and the domino affect then Tuesday and Thursdays etc.
next tues and thurs? We are looking at storms then too? Keep em coming ones got to stick, our luck cannot have run out yet, we have what about 6 weeks max of snow chances and come march it gets hard with sun angle. I would still put this winter as great for me anyways.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18376
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

essexcountypete likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by amugs Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:42 pm

Need the HP about 200 miles more east if not to keep us cold at all levels - if not we can have a slop storm or a sleet/freezing rain fest.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 18C78095-AB9C-4E48-A521-0F6BF3377E0A.png.d98b64d0791cde2c3f1e24fc0053b0d5

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12377
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:45 pm

I know i am going way past but ohh ninny 17th, g word for most....gotta watch that date in the coming week.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18376
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:22 am

V-day storm doesn’t look that exciting as it once use to. See how the PV is up near the Great Lakes, and we got heights trying to peak along the east coast. But the energy is very elongated. The short wave and low associated with this energy is weak. My guess is some rain and snow showers (rain south near the shore and snow N&W).

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Gfs_z500_vort_us_17

Next Tuesday might be a different story, however....

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20053
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 10:22 am



Talk about active and confusing my goodness our models are going to be all over the place with the storms for sure with this.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12377
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by TheAresian Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:05 pm

I'd love to see a TV weatherman come out and say that during his forecast just so that he could end it with an admonishment to people that weather setups are vastly more complicated than just flipping on TWC and taking it as gospel.

TheAresian

Posts : 79
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2019-11-13
Location : Painted Post, NY

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:32 pm

Jesus 3 days in a row - Saturday Night on teh Euro Now - Amped


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12377
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:32 pm

Jesus 3 days in a  row - Saturday Night on teh Euro Now - Amped

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 25CB2F66-8784-4DB7-B035-67DAC3B6A451.png.5b63b3a9e79b41064af68d04c39d3388

OH this would be bad - has anyone seen the ZR adn Sleet maps for Texas through the Mid Atlantic this weekend - it is an absolute disaster - better pray it doesn't happen or else mass swaths of population are in trouble
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Et4spcGXEAU8pcE?format=jpg&name=medium


Last edited by amugs on Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12377
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

CPcantmeasuresnow and essexcountypete like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 15 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 10 ... 15  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum