Long Range Discussions 21.0

This map is just magical for us snow weenies. Just beautiful.

I'm gonna have to get another bag of ice melt if there are more storms coming

OZ 12k NAM for Tuesday



OZ 3K NAM for Tueday



One storm at a time, another 2-3 inches Tuesday to refresh everything, after that it's promising but iffy.

I have a thread for those storms!

amugs wrote:This map is just magical for us snow weenies. Just beautiful.

I haven’t looked at anything in detail, and as I previously said, very most likely won’t be able to, but taking this verbatim, if you’re looking for another NESIS major event for somebody at least nearby, wait until the tail of that tropospheric PV dumbbells around and turns the corner........because brothers and sisters, THAT AINT NO JOKE. I may not be the wisest nor the oldest, but my limited experience tells me that evolution IS NOT an “if”, BUT A “when” if the above map is legitimate.

I should threaten to cancel Winter more often, I guess lmfao also, if you couldn’t tell, THIS IS ME GETTING EXCITED lol

OH BOY RAY - dont jinx us or be a mush please LOL!!
Your input is extremely valuable here and welcomed so yuo may have to make sometime to post here brother. IF i have to after I pay Alex a visit on the Island I'll pay you a visit on the real and best regions island LOL!

amugs wrote:OH BOY RAY - dont jinx us or be a mush please LOL!!
Your input is extremely valuable here and welcomed so yuo may have to make sometime to post here brother. IF i have to after I pay Alex a visit on the Island I'll pay you a visit on the real and best regions island LOL!

HAHA come to the real snow towns

Wow the 14th!! This includes the snow from tomorrow, but we do not really see but a inch in some spots on the 11th so the 14th has G word potential on GFS verbatim, what do you guys think? It rides super close to the coast bringing in some rain and mixing we need it a bit more S & E but not a lot.

jmanley32 wrote:Wow the 14th!! This includes the snow from tomorrow, but we do not really see but a inch in some spots on the 11th so the 14th has G word potential on GFS verbatim, what do you guys think? It rides super close to the coast bringing in some rain and mixing we need it a bit more S & E but not a lot.

To far out need to see what happens during the week

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wow the 14th!! This includes the snow from tomorrow, but we do not really see but a inch in some spots on the 11th so the 14th has G word potential on GFS verbatim, what do you guys think? It rides super close to the coast bringing in some rain and mixing we need it a bit more S & E but not a lot.

To far out need to see what happens during the week

I am aware was just curious.

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wow the 14th!! This includes the snow from tomorrow, but we do not really see but a inch in some spots on the 11th so the 14th has G word potential on GFS verbatim, what do you guys think? It rides super close to the coast bringing in some rain and mixing we need it a bit more S & E but not a lot.

To far out need to see what happens during the week

I am aware was just curious.

Today's trends jman for late week and weekend have been drier and south

Dr. Cohen very interesting. Shows the stratospheric warming events and the resulting weather events. How long will it as? Looks like until early to mid March.

This is where my attention is since tomorrow is a non event.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wow the 14th!! This includes the snow from tomorrow, but we do not really see but a inch in some spots on the 11th so the 14th has G word potential on GFS verbatim, what do you guys think? It rides super close to the coast bringing in some rain and mixing we need it a bit more S & E but not a lot.

To far out need to see what happens during the week

I am aware was just curious.

Today's trends jman for late week and weekend have been drier and south

yeah saw that, still go see windshield wipers, its 6 days out to vday. The 11th if its south we may not get it as its 2 days out but who knows.

The northern s/w circled will dictate how Sunday evolves. Too much interaction with the PV amplifies heights along the coast. A PV more north allows for better separation and for north/south short waves to phase. Definitely one to watch

This is a remarkably COLD HP my goodness

GEFS losing cutters for VDAY storm - nice cluster by BM=bench mark

Frank_Wx wrote:The northern s/w circled will dictate how Sunday evolves. Too much interaction with the PV amplifies heights along the coast. A PV more north allows for better separation and for north/south short waves to phase. Definitely one to watch

The 12z GFS showed a colder storm for the coast on Sunday. Although it’s still rain verbatim, N&W got into some heavier snow amounts. It was a nice trend, and it happened because of what I had stated last night.



Check out the difference aloft between the 6z and 12z gfs. Look how there is greater separation between the southern s/w and the PV on the 12z gfs. This allows phasing to occur much more upstream as opposed in the Midwest which would result in a strong cutter.

Don't want it to phase early or else it cuts. Gefs and Eps have more coastal than cutters atb12Z than at 0 and 6z runs. What Friday's system does will help set up Sunday and the domino affect then Tuesday and Thursdays etc.

amugs wrote:Don't want it to phase early or else it cuts. Gefs and Eps have more coastal than cutters atb12Z than at 0 and 6z runs. What Friday's system does will help set up Sunday and the domino affect then Tuesday and Thursdays etc.

next tues and thurs? We are looking at storms then too? Keep em coming ones got to stick, our luck cannot have run out yet, we have what about 6 weeks max of snow chances and come march it gets hard with sun angle. I would still put this winter as great for me anyways.

Need the HP about 200 miles more east if not to keep us cold at all levels - if not we can have a slop storm or a sleet/freezing rain fest.

I know i am going way past but ohh ninny 17th, g word for most....gotta watch that date in the coming week.

V-day storm doesn’t look that exciting as it once use to. See how the PV is up near the Great Lakes, and we got heights trying to peak along the east coast. But the energy is very elongated. The short wave and low associated with this energy is weak. My guess is some rain and snow showers (rain south near the shore and snow N&W).



Next Tuesday might be a different story, however....

A sort of TPV fujiwara in southern Canada and then a hostile mid latitude wave train interaction into early next week. This is the westerly momentum added to Mid Latitudes manifesting as jet extension and then this wave activity that shoves TPV east. Complicated, huh? Lol pic.twitter.com/h07moZAbQV

— Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello) February 10, 2021

Talk about active and confusing my goodness our models are going to be all over the place with the storms for sure with this.

I'd love to see a TV weatherman come out and say that during his forecast just so that he could end it with an admonishment to people that weather setups are vastly more complicated than just flipping on TWC and taking it as gospel.

Jesus 3 days in a row - Saturday Night on teh Euro Now - Amped

Jesus 3 days in a  row - Saturday Night on teh Euro Now - Amped



OH this would be bad - has anyone seen the ZR adn Sleet maps for Texas through the Mid Atlantic this weekend - it is an absolute disaster - better pray it doesn't happen or else mass swaths of population are in trouble