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Long Range Discussions 21.0

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Post by Irish Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:26 am

@heehaw453 wrote:I think Next Friday/Saturday 2/26-2/27 needs to be monitored too.  Models aren't screaming anything but there is going to be a baroclinic zone near by.  It won't take much for a wave to ride it and produce something.  Are we on the good side of the zone and is there a strong enough wave?  

Looks too warm, no?


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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:37 pm

@Irish wrote:Looking at the long range, looks like spring is right around the corner. Even if things line up just right and we get lucky with a storm, it won't hang around long.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

Who knows? People were looking at long range in early January and saying winter was over and we all got close to 30 inches in Feb and I'm expecting another 2-3 tomorrow. I don't look at anything past 7-10 days and there are too many variables, especially in March.
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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:07 pm

Euro for Monday


[url=https://servimg.com/view/19563758/17]Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 12 Sn10_a11[/url
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:41 pm

@Irish wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:I think Next Friday/Saturday 2/26-2/27 needs to be monitored too.  Models aren't screaming anything but there is going to be a baroclinic zone near by.  It won't take much for a wave to ride it and produce something.  Are we on the good side of the zone and is there a strong enough wave?  

Looks too warm, no?

The bigger risk for Friday/Sat is not too warm, it's the question of whether or not the storm will form and climb high enough latitude for moisture to reach our area. Calling an early spring right now is just too premature IMO regardless of what long range models may show. We've had a severe -AO and they tend to not just close shop up so easily and they also tend to come in clusters (span a few years). We shall see.

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Post by Irish Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:52 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:I think Next Friday/Saturday 2/26-2/27 needs to be monitored too.  Models aren't screaming anything but there is going to be a baroclinic zone near by.  It won't take much for a wave to ride it and produce something.  Are we on the good side of the zone and is there a strong enough wave?  

Looks too warm, no?

The bigger risk for Friday/Sat is not too warm, it's the question of whether or not the storm will form and climb high enough latitude for moisture to reach our area.  Calling an early spring right now is just too premature IMO regardless of what long range models may show.  We've had a severe -AO and they tend to not just close shop up so easily and they also tend to come in clusters (span a few years).  We shall see.

Right, I was just saying the more we push forward into March and the angle of the sun changes, the more likely it will be that even if we get the variables lined up for a storm, we likely won't have long stretches of cold to keep it around.

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 2:03 pm

@Irish wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:I think Next Friday/Saturday 2/26-2/27 needs to be monitored too.  Models aren't screaming anything but there is going to be a baroclinic zone near by.  It won't take much for a wave to ride it and produce something.  Are we on the good side of the zone and is there a strong enough wave?  

Looks too warm, no?

The bigger risk for Friday/Sat is not too warm, it's the question of whether or not the storm will form and climb high enough latitude for moisture to reach our area.  Calling an early spring right now is just too premature IMO regardless of what long range models may show.  We've had a severe -AO and they tend to not just close shop up so easily and they also tend to come in clusters (span a few years).  We shall see.

Right, I was just saying the more we push forward into March and the angle of the sun changes, the more likely it will be that even if we get the variables lined up for a storm, we likely won't have long stretches of cold to keep it around.

True you need a deep cold arctic air mass during the day ala 2015 BUT if it comes during darkness then it won't matter.
GFS has massive 980's cutter for March 2 and Euro has a Southern Storm climbing the coast - March Madness has begun. Do not be sold on any one model output as the shortwaves are shortening and it gives the models fits with these perturbations. The cold and very cold air that is still at play and the warm tropical air is starting its migration North. A deep storm can pull this cold air down or warm air up.

Spring will rear itself as things move forward since we are 27 days away, sun angle increasing as is it intensity. Severe weather should be very interesting with this meridional jet structure we have in place and its not going away anytime soon.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 21, 2021 2:15 pm

@Irish wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:I think Next Friday/Saturday 2/26-2/27 needs to be monitored too.  Models aren't screaming anything but there is going to be a baroclinic zone near by.  It won't take much for a wave to ride it and produce something.  Are we on the good side of the zone and is there a strong enough wave?  

Looks too warm, no?

The bigger risk for Friday/Sat is not too warm, it's the question of whether or not the storm will form and climb high enough latitude for moisture to reach our area.  Calling an early spring right now is just too premature IMO regardless of what long range models may show.  We've had a severe -AO and they tend to not just close shop up so easily and they also tend to come in clusters (span a few years).  We shall see.

Right, I was just saying the more we push forward into March and the angle of the sun changes, the more likely it will be that even if we get the variables lined up for a storm, we likely won't have long stretches of cold to keep it around.

Absolutely, the March sun will eat snow on the ground like a vacuum. March is all about an intense storm that dumps a lot of snow and then the melting starts immediately. There's no doubt that any snow exposed to the sun will be gone in short order. Even if it's cold the sun does a number of the snow.

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Post by oldtimer Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:15 pm

Mugs. What’s happening for tomorrow. Any white gold getting to te coast?

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:16 pm

3K NAM tomorrow.  Even shows CPK for a few inches which I believe is possible. This most likely going to be a 3-5" event NW of I-95.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 12 3knam11

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:22 pm

18 Z NAM says HI Mikey P, Snow Man, Hee Haw

Cha ching!!

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 12 Namcon16

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 21, 2021 5:11 pm

Very impressive amounts tomorrow as per GFSv16

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 12 Gfsv1616

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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:41 pm

I don't understand NWS Albany calling for only 1/2 inch by me. They say snow for a brief period then rain/snow mix limiting accums. All models show all or mostly snow with 2-3 inches by me north of 84.
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Post by Irish Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:02 pm

@hyde345 wrote:I don't understand NWS Albany calling for only 1/2 inch by me. They say snow for a brief period then rain/snow mix limiting accums. All models show all or mostly snow with 2-3 inches by me north of 84.

Either way, does it really matter? It's basically a non-event. Set your eyes to the future kind gent.

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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:17 pm

@Irish wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:I don't understand NWS Albany calling for only 1/2 inch by me. They say snow for a brief period then rain/snow mix limiting accums. All models show all or mostly snow with 2-3 inches by me north of 84.

Either way, does it really matter?  It's basically a non-event.  Set your eyes to the future kind gent.

I was expecting a 2-3 inch type event in a 3-4 hour period with some good snow rates which I still think is possible. That's not a non event. A 1/2 inch with mixed snow/rain is just blah.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:52 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:I don't understand NWS Albany calling for only 1/2 inch by me. They say snow for a brief period then rain/snow mix limiting accums. All models show all or mostly snow with 2-3 inches by me north of 84.

Either way, does it really matter?  It's basically a non-event.  Set your eyes to the future kind gent.

I was expecting a 2-3 inch type event in a 3-4 hour period with some good snow rates which I still think is possible. That's not a non event. A 1/2 inch with mixed snow/rain is just blah.
There is a thread for ythis event but I just wanted to say I completely agree with you. They can't all be 6+ inch snowfalls, i forget what year it was but in late Feb/March we had like 4-5 events 6 and under and it added like 20-25 inches to my total. And you are good spot I dunno with NWS, I was expecting rain but now some SR models show a few inches into my area albeit on the very edge of that or rain.
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Post by jimv45 Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:17 am

Yep hyde ALbany just woke up 2-5 they are saying now. And it might be an non-event in his backyard but it called a minor event from some on this board.

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Post by hyde345 Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:35 am

@jimv45 wrote:Yep hyde ALbany just woke up 2-5 they are saying now. And it might be an non-event in his backyard but it called a minor event from some on this board.

Albany is sometimes asleep at the switch with their evening forecasts. I've seen it before and I don't understand why. It was obvious we were going to see a short duration but potentially impactful event only because it will come down pretty hard for say 2-4 hours. That can cause problems. The fact that they were calling for 1/2 inch with mix rain/snow makes me SMH when ALL guidance has us as snow except for a brief time at the beginning before the intensity increases and the column cools.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:49 am

@Irish wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:I don't understand NWS Albany calling for only 1/2 inch by me. They say snow for a brief period then rain/snow mix limiting accums. All models show all or mostly snow with 2-3 inches by me north of 84.

Either way, does it really matter?  It's basically a non-event.  Set your eyes to the future kind gent.

It's a fairly large forum, encompassing about a 75 mile radius from NYC in all directions with active posters in all those areas, that's a lot of vastly different winters. Someone living 50-75 miles NW, N or NE of NYC vs someone living 50-75 miles south of NYC have very different winters and different winter expectations. Within that area you have places that average more than 60 inches of snow per season and on the south jersey shore they average less than 20 inches per season.

One mans non event, rain, slop or an inch or less, is often times another man or womans, 3-5 inch, or more in the case of many storms, winter wonderland. This appears to be one of those storms. As we head into March they will be more often the case than not.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:34 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:I don't understand NWS Albany calling for only 1/2 inch by me. They say snow for a brief period then rain/snow mix limiting accums. All models show all or mostly snow with 2-3 inches by me north of 84.

Either way, does it really matter?  It's basically a non-event.  Set your eyes to the future kind gent.

It's a fairly large forum, encompassing about a 75 mile radius from NYC in all directions with active posters in all those areas, that's a lot of vastly different winters. Someone living 50-75 miles NW, N or NE of NYC vs someone living 50-75 miles south of NYC have very different winters and different winter expectations. Within that area you have places that average more than 60 inches of snow per season and on the south jersey shore they average less than 20 inches per season.

One mans non event, rain, slop or an inch or less, is often times another man or womans, 3-5 inch, or more in the case of many storms, winter wonderland. This appears to be one of those storms. As we head into March they will be more often the case than not.
Yes I have learned finally lol that this is just the climate I chose to live in and I have to suck it up , good luck getting your 3-5 maybe you even get 6 who knows some pretty crazy rates with this, it also looks like a severe t-storm line to the south, might some see thunder snow I wonder.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:54 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:I don't understand NWS Albany calling for only 1/2 inch by me. They say snow for a brief period then rain/snow mix limiting accums. All models show all or mostly snow with 2-3 inches by me north of 84.

Either way, does it really matter?  It's basically a non-event.  Set your eyes to the future kind gent.

It's a fairly large forum, encompassing about a 75 mile radius from NYC in all directions with active posters in all those areas, that's a lot of vastly different winters. Someone living 50-75 miles NW, N or NE of NYC vs someone living 50-75 miles south of NYC have very different winters and different winter expectations. Within that area you have places that average more than 60 inches of snow per season and on the south jersey shore they average less than 20 inches per season.

One mans non event, rain, slop or an inch or less, is often times another man or womans, 3-5 inch, or more in the case of many storms, winter wonderland. This appears to be one of those storms. As we head into March they will be more often the case than not.
Yes I have learned finally lol that this is just the climate I chose to live in and I have to suck it up , good luck getting your 3-5 maybe you even get 6 who knows some pretty crazy rates with this, it also looks like a severe t-storm line to the south, might some see thunder snow I wonder.

I wouldn't count yourself out on this yet for at least an inch or two. It's so close it will be a nowcast in and around NYC.
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Post by dkodgis Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:53 pm

A turn of the page and what have we tomorrow? Around here, maybe an inch more of snow in the late morning. What about February 27 or March 1? What is brewing? Yes I know it is a ways out and models showing things now mean very little out that far...but a man can dream. I am going for the cherry on top here, people.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:48 am

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 12 Bcd0d710
EPS is no longer showing a sustained warm pattern as we get into March, but instead it portrays a blocking pattern returning. With the way this winter has successfully fought off a LaNina setup thus far and the fact that the last few Marches have been productive, I think old man winter has at least one last punch to throw at us.
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:43 am

Piggybacking Nutley post - looks to be resetting the table for possible wintry threats 1 week into the maybe ethsecond week of March

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 12 00zeps7day.gif.63bc8f7c37534aad2cfe0406468fa808

Damien for you and teh N&W crew
Saturday morning nice thump

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:02 am

PV Disturbance that equate sto what we are seeing next week so far, the orangy colors the propagate down to the surface are what is important on this chart

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 12 Eu6sdxEWYAEf8NF?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:26 pm

Sping is coming, models showing lots of rain, well at least down here, personally I am good, its all snirt and I got a ticket today for alternate side parking in which they did NOTHING but give tickets to EVRYONE. Never have they done alternate side when there is snow OTG.
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