Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th

Euro much further N

Great visual of how much this has trended -Scott it will be a bit dry but it saturates fast

The past five runs of the European model have trended decidedly northward with tonight’s snowfall event, now bringing accumulating snow to NYC and more than 3” across Central and Southern NJ. This is just one model, but a great visualization on why forecasts are trending snowier. pic.twitter.com/OhAQ6bj0tC

— New York Metro Weather (@nymetrowx) February 10, 2021

From a pro met
Dry then BOOM

Here's the BOOM

My call for tomorrow. Keep in mind the northward trend may continue into tonight's models, but honestly based off what I'm see aloft I don't think that will happen. The heaviest snow will stay to the south. Higher ratios N&W of NYC may allow a quick 1-3" to accumulate. That said, just minor shifts would spread my 2-4" zone much more north into NNJ, so let's see what happens.

I think this is a good call. If anything I could see 5-6" sneaking into EPA and CNJ on this. The SE ridge keeps pushing this moisture further north on each model run. It's been inexorable in that trend to this point.

Frank_Wx wrote:My call for tomorrow. Keep in mind the northward trend may continue into tonight's models, but honestly based off what I'm see aloft I don't think that will happen. The heaviest snow will stay to the south. Higher ratios N&W of NYC may allow a quick 1-3" to accumulate. That said, just minor shifts would spread my 2-4" zone much more north into NNJ, so let's see what happens.

Like the map and agree, with that said do you think the friday system will follow and trend further north

I’m a little conservative on this I guess. But here’s my thought:
Blue: 3-6”
Pink: 1-3”
Orange: Coating to an inch.

Frank_Wx wrote:My call for tomorrow. Keep in mind the northward trend may continue into tonight's models, but honestly based off what I'm see aloft I don't think that will happen. The heaviest snow will stay to the south. Higher ratios N&W of NYC may allow a quick 1-3" to accumulate. That said, just minor shifts would spread my 2-4" zone much more north into NNJ, so let's see what happens.

let’s hope north is our trend frank thank u for ur post bring on the

Frank_Wx wrote:My call for tomorrow. Keep in mind the northward trend may continue into tonight's models, but honestly based off what I'm see aloft I don't think that will happen. The heaviest snow will stay to the south. Higher ratios N&W of NYC may allow a quick 1-3" to accumulate. That said, just minor shifts would spread my 2-4" zone much more north into NNJ, so let's see what happens.

Agree, and if that's the case, the 2-4" will expand into NNJ as well. But dry air and virga may try to cut down on snow amounts the further N&W you go

15z SREF plumes:

3.56" JFK

4.89" BLM

5.03" TTN 

5.42" PHL

Wow

18z NAM

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:My call for tomorrow. Keep in mind the northward trend may continue into tonight's models, but honestly based off what I'm see aloft I don't think that will happen. The heaviest snow will stay to the south. Higher ratios N&W of NYC may allow a quick 1-3" to accumulate. That said, just minor shifts would spread my 2-4" zone much more north into NNJ, so let's see what happens.

Agree, and if that's the case, the 2-4" will expand into NNJ as well. But dry air and virga may try to cut down on snow amounts the further N&W you go

Could Frank 638 and I get into the 2-4 or do you think thats too far of a stretch, its really not that far south of us?

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
330 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-111000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0005.210211T0300Z-210211T1500Z/
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
330 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3
inches.

* WHERE...New York City, Long Island, and most of northeast New
Jersey.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Hazardous conditions
will likely impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

WIner Weather Advisory for Long Island

WU bumped up Bloomfield to 1-3" at some point since noon.

I find it funny that at my longitude theres a WWA across the river directly west of me even a bit north too like across from tappen zee but nothing over here. I do not care if theres a WWA or not I just hope to see a inch or two or 3 or 4 lol

billg315 wrote:I’m a little conservative on this I guess. But here’s my thought:
Blue: 3-6”
Pink: 1-3”
Orange: Coating to an inch.

Why you stealing my daughters drawings again? Taking credit for her snow map that will verify. JK I like yours better than Franks lol (though they arent totally different, still cover same amounts about.

jmanley32 wrote:

billg315 wrote:I’m a little conservative on this I guess. But here’s my thought:
Blue: 3-6”
Pink: 1-3”
Orange: Coating to an inch.

Why you stealing my daughters drawings again? Taking credit for her snow map that will verify. JK I like yours better than Franks lol (though they arent totally different, still cover same amounts about.

Yeah, it's pretty close to Frank's and in that 1-3" zone, really I think the 3" is most likely to only verify along the very southern border of that zone. 1-2" would be more widespread, unless - as Frank mentioned -- this bumped north a bit tonight.

billg, you and Frank's maps give me a shot at 2 in the LHV.Good news, thought I would see a few snow showers with this.Hoping for a move north but Frank doesn't think so.Anyway, one snow event after another! Happy days!

As of this morning, the "chance of snow" being > 50% for tonight stretched from midnight (just barely) to 7 am. Now it's from 11 pm (almost 10 pm) to 10 am (almost 11 am), that's 11-12 hour of snow! And several hours of my beloved daytime snow now included in that! AND Mt Holly has upped our ante to 3-5".

I figure if the snow persists for that long, 5-6+" plus more likely...

I mean for sure, cautious optimism. It's not game time yet, so nothing guaranteed. But I'm starting to get that feeling down in the gut. You know the feeling, right:

Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy, OH BOY!!!  

rb...we doing this one for you man!!! 3+" net for the Great Barrier Island and not a flake less!!! Thanks Docstox, Mugs CP and many others for the South side shout outs!!! I think this is the RARE case where that last second 20-30 nw bump would bring good tidings to all!!

Dang, I just re-read that. Chill SENJ. Gonna go cook dinner and step away for a bit. Taco night!!

One last quick comment for now. I'm not falling for the 11-12 hours of snow trick that my phone likes to play on me. I'll figure a start time between 12-1 am and the snow to be wrapping up by 8-9 am. We'll see. Now I gotta go dice the onions.

SENJsnowman wrote:One last quick comment for now. I'm not falling for the 11-12 hours of snow trick that my phone likes to play on me. I'll figure a start time between 12-1 am and the snow to be wrapping up by 8-9 am. We'll see. Now I gotta go dice the onions.

Good luck. I hope you bust high.

GFS Happy Hours       anyone - WOWZA!!!!!! Lets see if EURO follows suit.

Ratio Map here peeps

@CP this is what I was talking about for teh JET streak another 20-25 miles jump N and stronger
this will allow this precipitation shield to expand northward and strengthen

amugs wrote:GFS Happy Hours       anyone - WOWZA!!!!!! Lets see if EURO follows suit.

Ratio Map here peeps

Love it!!!!!But Crapola.

Well, i did not say crapola ha

Grselig wrote:

amugs wrote:GFS Happy Hours       anyone - WOWZA!!!!!! Lets see if EURO follows suit.

Ratio Map here peeps

Love it!!!!!But Crapola.

Well, i did not say crapola ha

That word is not permitted to be said in this forum

It’s terrible.