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Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:57 pm

My call for tomorrow. Keep in mind the northward trend may continue into tonight's models, but honestly based off what I'm see aloft I don't think that will happen. The heaviest snow will stay to the south. Higher ratios N&W of NYC may allow a quick 1-3" to accumulate. That said, just minor shifts would spread my 2-4" zone much more north into NNJ, so let's see what happens.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:04 pm

I think this is a good call. If anything I could see 5-6" sneaking into EPA and CNJ on this. The SE ridge keeps pushing this moisture further north on each model run. It's been inexorable in that trend to this point.

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Post by phil155 Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:10 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:My call for tomorrow. Keep in mind the northward trend may continue into tonight's models, but honestly based off what I'm see aloft I don't think that will happen. The heaviest snow will stay to the south. Higher ratios N&W of NYC may allow a quick 1-3" to accumulate. That said, just minor shifts would spread my 2-4" zone much more north into NNJ, so let's see what happens.

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Like the map and agree, with that said do you think the friday system will follow and trend further north

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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:36 pm

I’m a little conservative on this I guess. But here’s my thought:
Blue: 3-6”
Pink: 1-3”
Orange: Coating to an inch.
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 9 A481a110
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Post by frank 638 Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:44 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:My call for tomorrow. Keep in mind the northward trend may continue into tonight's models, but honestly based off what I'm see aloft I don't think that will happen. The heaviest snow will stay to the south. Higher ratios N&W of NYC may allow a quick 1-3" to accumulate. That said, just minor shifts would spread my 2-4" zone much more north into NNJ, so let's see what happens.

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let’s hope north is our trend frank thank u for ur post bring on the ⛄

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:50 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:My call for tomorrow. Keep in mind the northward trend may continue into tonight's models, but honestly based off what I'm see aloft I don't think that will happen. The heaviest snow will stay to the south. Higher ratios N&W of NYC may allow a quick 1-3" to accumulate. That said, just minor shifts would spread my 2-4" zone much more north into NNJ, so let's see what happens.

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Agree, and if that's the case, the 2-4" will expand into NNJ as well. But dry air and virga may try to cut down on snow amounts the further N&W you go

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:28 pm



15z SREF plumes:

3.56" JFK

4.89" BLM

5.03" TTN 

5.42" PHL

Wow
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:29 pm

18z NAM

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 9 Namconus_asnow_neus_8

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:30 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:My call for tomorrow. Keep in mind the northward trend may continue into tonight's models, but honestly based off what I'm see aloft I don't think that will happen. The heaviest snow will stay to the south. Higher ratios N&W of NYC may allow a quick 1-3" to accumulate. That said, just minor shifts would spread my 2-4" zone much more north into NNJ, so let's see what happens.

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 9 Feb_1110

Agree, and if that's the case, the 2-4" will expand into NNJ as well. But dry air and virga may try to cut down on snow amounts the further N&W you go
Could Frank 638 and I get into the 2-4 or do you think thats too far of a stretch, its really not that far south of us?
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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:32 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
330 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-111000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0005.210211T0300Z-210211T1500Z/
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
330 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3
inches.

* WHERE...New York City, Long Island, and most of northeast New
Jersey.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Hazardous conditions
will likely impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.
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Post by mmanisca Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:33 pm

WIner Weather Advisory for Long Island
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Post by essexcountypete Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:53 pm

WU bumped up Bloomfield to 1-3" at some point since noon.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:05 pm

I find it funny that at my longitude theres a WWA across the river directly west of me even a bit north too like across from tappen zee but nothing over here. I do not care if theres a WWA or not I just hope to see a inch or two or 3 or 4 lol
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:07 pm

@billg315 wrote:I’m a little conservative on this I guess. But here’s my thought:
Blue: 3-6”
Pink: 1-3”
Orange: Coating to an inch.
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 9 A481a110
Why you stealing my daughters drawings again? Taking credit for her snow map that will verify. JK I like yours better than Franks lol (though they arent totally different, still cover same amounts about.
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:11 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:I’m a little conservative on this I guess. But here’s my thought:
Blue: 3-6”
Pink: 1-3”
Orange: Coating to an inch.
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 9 A481a110
Why you stealing my daughters drawings again? Taking credit for her snow map that will verify. JK I like yours better than Franks lol (though they arent totally different, still cover same amounts about.
Yeah, it's pretty close to Frank's and in that 1-3" zone, really I think the 3" is most likely to only verify along the very southern border of that zone. 1-2" would be more widespread, unless - as Frank mentioned -- this bumped north a bit tonight.
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Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:19 pm

billg, you and Frank's maps give me a shot at 2 in the LHV.Good news, thought I would see a few snow showers with this.Hoping for a move north but Frank doesn't think so.Anyway, one snow event after another! Happy days!
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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:29 pm

As of this morning, the "chance of snow" being > 50% for tonight stretched from midnight (just barely) to 7 am. Now it's from 11 pm (almost 10 pm) to 10 am (almost 11 am), that's 11-12 hour of snow! And several hours of my beloved daytime snow now included in that! AND Mt Holly has upped our ante to 3-5".

I figure if the snow persists for that long, 5-6+" plus more likely...

I mean for sure, cautious optimism. It's not game time yet, so nothing guaranteed. But I'm starting to get that feeling down in the gut. You know the feeling, right:

Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy, OH BOY!!!  

rb...we doing this one for you man!!! 3+" net for the Great Barrier Island and not a flake less!!! Thanks Docstox, Mugs CP and many others for the South side shout outs!!! I think this is the RARE case where that last second 20-30 nw bump would bring good tidings to all!!

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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:32 pm

Dang, I just re-read that. Shocked Chill SENJ. Cool Gonna go cook dinner and step away for a bit. Taco night!! Very Happy

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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:40 pm

One last quick comment for now. I'm not falling for the 11-12 hours of snow trick that my phone likes to play on me. I'll figure a start time between 12-1 am and the snow to be wrapping up by 8-9 am. We'll see. Now I gotta go dice the onions.

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Post by Grselig Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:48 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:One last quick comment for now. I'm not falling for the 11-12 hours of snow trick that my phone likes to play on me. I'll figure a start time between 12-1 am and the snow to be wrapping up by 8-9 am. We'll see. Now I gotta go dice the onions.

Good luck. I hope you bust high.
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:08 pm

GFS Happy Hours  drunken  drunken  drunken anyone - WOWZA!!!!!! Lets see if EURO follows suit.

Ratio Map here peeps

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 9 9C9414E1-23A5-4BB8-9C29-FF2C88734BE3.png.4eeaf0dbe71868e613fc5b6abfd969c7

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:11 pm

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 9 StormTotalSnowWeb1.png.b6a53010d046f9d78d03060cc8353d0a

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:14 pm

@CP this is what I was talking about for teh JET streak another 20-25 miles jump N and stronger
this will allow this precipitation shield to expand northward and strengthen
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 9 Gfs_uv250_eus_fh6_trend.gif.c987dcef48db56a36e4480de7cd7fb9c

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Grselig Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:26 pm

@amugs wrote:GFS Happy Hours  drunken  drunken  drunken anyone - WOWZA!!!!!! Lets see if EURO follows suit.

Ratio Map here peeps

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 9 9C9414E1-23A5-4BB8-9C29-FF2C88734BE3.png.4eeaf0dbe71868e613fc5b6abfd969c7

Love it!!!!!😊😊But Crapola.

Well, i did not say crapola ha
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:38 pm

@Grselig wrote:
@amugs wrote:GFS Happy Hours  drunken  drunken  drunken anyone - WOWZA!!!!!! Lets see if EURO follows suit.

Ratio Map here peeps

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 9 9C9414E1-23A5-4BB8-9C29-FF2C88734BE3.png.4eeaf0dbe71868e613fc5b6abfd969c7

Love it!!!!!😊😊But Crapola.

Well, i did not say crapola ha

That word is not permitted to be said in this forum

It’s terrible.

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