Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

Okay, and NWS doesnt feel 2-4 inches is a WWA? I thought a WWA was for any winter weather even icy rain.  I will take a nice little 2-3.  Just funny this is NWS prediction but the cutoff for WWA is north of 287.

NWS Upton WWA Criteria:

Winter Weather Advisory
Issued for a winter weather event in which there is more than one of the following: snow, sleet, and ice (freezing rain), and one of the advisory criteria is met but does not exceed warning criteria. In addition, a winter weather advisory will be issued for an all-snow event if the advisory criteria is met but does not exceed the warning criteria. The advisory criteria is 3 inches of snow and/or sleet expected in a 12 hour period, or a trace of ice accumulation. An advisory may still be warranted if lesser accumulations will significantly impact mass transit and/or utilities.

aiannone wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

Okay, and NWS doesnt feel 2-4 inches is a WWA? I thought a WWA was for any winter weather even icy rain.  I will take a nice little 2-3.  Just funny this is NWS prediction but the cutoff for WWA is north of 287.

NWS Upton WWA Criteria:

Winter Weather Advisory
Issued for a winter weather event in which there is more than one of the following: snow, sleet, and ice (freezing rain), and one of the advisory criteria is met but does not exceed warning criteria. In addition, a winter weather advisory will be issued for an all-snow event if the advisory criteria is met but does not exceed the warning criteria. The advisory criteria is 3 inches of snow and/or sleet expected in a 12 hour period, or a trace of ice accumulation.  An advisory may still be warranted if lesser accumulations will significantly impact mass transit and/or utilities.

By that map it appears to meet criteria.

Their 4-6" was blown out of he water in NNJ yesterday. Chill out and 2-4 for areas around NYC and 3-6" 25/30 miles away plus. Upton is as tight as a machine bolt tolerance on a 747 jet.

amugs wrote:Their 4-6" was blown out of he water in NNJ yesterday. Chill out and 2-4 for areas around NYC and 3-6" 25/30 miles away plus. Upton is as tight as a machine bolt tolerance on a 747 jet.

HAHAH. What concerns me is that last week's event that ushered in a South wind spiked the temp from 28 to 41 in a matter of 2 hours so I understand their concern and can see how that map even verifies too cold/snowy south of I-84 and into NYC/LI

GFS leading the way on this one?? Would be awesome if it did

Snow map for tomorrow. Looking at a 4am start and 3pm finish

Is freezing rain a possibility south of 78?

21.8* with a dew point of 10. Going to be really hard to get this cold air out of here given the snowpack in place and cold temps. Going to need a howling wind off the ocean. I’m afraid upton is not recognizing this and will be too low along the coast.

aiannone wrote:21.8* with a dew point of 10. Going to be really hard to get this cold air out of here given the snowpack in place and cold temps. Going to need a howling wind off the ocean. I’m afraid upton is not recognizing this and will be too low along the coast.

Hope so!

aiannone wrote:21.8* with a dew point of 10. Going to be really hard to get this cold air out of here given the snowpack in place and cold temps. Going to need a howling wind off the ocean. I’m afraid Upton is not recognizing this and will be too low along the coast.

This DEEEEEEPPP Snow pack is not going to allow much of this warm air to win out, sorry.
Good map Frank.

R/S Line - by a Pro Met

GEFS coming N for Friday

amugs wrote:

aiannone wrote:21.8* with a dew point of 10. Going to be really hard to get this cold air out of here given the snowpack in place and cold temps. Going to need a howling wind off the ocean. I’m afraid Upton is not recognizing this and will be too low along the coast.

This DEEEEEEPPP Snow pack is not going to allow much of this warm air to win out, sorry.
Good map Frank.

R/S Line - by a Pro Met

Hmm interesting.

aiannone wrote:

amugs wrote:

aiannone wrote:21.8* with a dew point of 10. Going to be really hard to get this cold air out of here given the snowpack in place and cold temps. Going to need a howling wind off the ocean. I’m afraid Upton is not recognizing this and will be too low along the coast.

This DEEEEEEPPP Snow pack is not going to allow much of this warm air to win out, sorry.
Good map Frank.

R/S Line - by a Pro Met

Hmm interesting.

Yellow line. I’ve seen this one before.

not a big storm but nice to be in the potential bulls eye

17* right now with a dew point of 8*. Hard time believing I change to rain tomorrow. Freezing rain, with a warm nose above? Maybe. But plain rain? I’m skeptical.

22 degrees here. I'm hoping whatever I see is only snow or nothing. Don't want rain to harden it all up. Or worse slush bomb.

22 degrees here too. Never got above 25 today, but boy was the sun strong melting snow.

Seems as though models are coming to a consensus that the 10–11th event will be passing south of NYC and will be a SNJ and mid Atlantic event.

aiannone wrote:Seems as though models are coming to a consensus that the 10–11th event will be passing south of NYC and will be a SNJ and mid Atlantic event.

well that stinks, well lets hope for the 14th then. That's still far enough off that there's time for change.

aiannone wrote:Seems as though models are coming to a consensus that the 10–11th event will be passing south of NYC and will be a SNJ and mid Atlantic event.

The writings been on the wall for that one since yesterday, it sinks further south every run. Plenty more after it and hopefully tomorrow delivers for the people of the North and West.

lets hope thats not the new trend

aiannone wrote:Seems as though models are coming to a consensus that the 10–11th event will be passing south of NYC and will be a SNJ and mid Atlantic event.

It is ticking North, 0Z NAM jumped up by 75 ~100miles?Like I said let's get tomorrow done before we talk Thursday/ Friday. Heights are rising on NAM and other models. Give it a few more runs to see if this is a trend.

NAM comes further south as did 3K, RGEM, 18ZGFS, HDRPS as well to about Driscoll Bridge

0Z 3K NAM for tomorrow.

The trend this winter has been for heights to rise before the storm. Dont be surprised if by tomorrow night we see this trend another couple of jumps N. Time will tell but WE TRACK!!

wow so the latest run went from delmarva to jersey

My guess is Thursday’s wave stays mostly south. I’m thinking Trenton and points south. Then the Friday wave will be more north bringing snow as north as NYC. So many fluctuations at the moment