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Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:01 pm

Their 4-6" was blown out of he water in NNJ yesterday. Chill out and 2-4 for areas around NYC and 3-6" 25/30 miles away plus. Upton is as tight as a machine bolt tolerance on a 747 jet.

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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:03 pm

@amugs wrote:Their 4-6" was blown out of he water in NNJ yesterday. Chill out and 2-4 for areas around NYC and 3-6" 25/30 miles away plus. Upton is as tight as a machine bolt tolerance on a 747 jet.

HAHAH. What concerns me is that last week's event that ushered in a South wind spiked the temp from 28 to 41 in a matter of 2 hours so I understand their concern and can see how that map even verifies too cold/snowy south of I-84 and into NYC/LI
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:04 pm

GFS leading the way on this one?? Would be awesome if it did

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 4 Etvg_i10

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:31 pm

Snow map for tomorrow. Looking at a 4am start and 3pm finish

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 4 Feb-9th-Call

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:00 pm

Is freezing rain a possibility south of 78?
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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:22 pm

21.8* with a dew point of 10. Going to be really hard to get this cold air out of here given the snowpack in place and cold temps. Going to need a howling wind off the ocean. I’m afraid upton is not recognizing this and will be too low along the coast.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:45 pm

@aiannone wrote:21.8* with a dew point of 10. Going to be really hard to get this cold air out of here given the snowpack in place and cold temps. Going to need a howling wind off the ocean. I’m afraid upton is not recognizing this and will be too low along the coast.
Hope so!
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:03 pm

@aiannone wrote:21.8* with a dew point of 10. Going to be really hard to get this cold air out of here given the snowpack in place and cold temps. Going to need a howling wind off the ocean. I’m afraid Upton is not recognizing this and will be too low along the coast.

This DEEEEEEPPP Snow pack is not going to allow much of this warm air to win out, sorry.
Good map Frank.

R/S Line - by a Pro Met

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 4 903138743_NAMwind15z.png.bc3a08dcc785a531d3d18a52262de74b


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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:06 pm

GEFS coming N for Friday
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 4 6021bdd121d4c.png.897758240ea3b8674d4623c7d6fb5c32

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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:19 pm

@amugs wrote:
@aiannone wrote:21.8* with a dew point of 10. Going to be really hard to get this cold air out of here given the snowpack in place and cold temps. Going to need a howling wind off the ocean. I’m afraid Upton is not recognizing this and will be too low along the coast.

This DEEEEEEPPP Snow pack is not going to allow much of this warm air to win out, sorry.
Good map Frank.

R/S Line - by a Pro Met

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 4 903138743_NAMwind15z.png.bc3a08dcc785a531d3d18a52262de74b


Hmm interesting.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:29 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@aiannone wrote:21.8* with a dew point of 10. Going to be really hard to get this cold air out of here given the snowpack in place and cold temps. Going to need a howling wind off the ocean. I’m afraid Upton is not recognizing this and will be too low along the coast.

This DEEEEEEPPP Snow pack is not going to allow much of this warm air to win out, sorry.
Good map Frank.

R/S Line - by a Pro Met

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 4 903138743_NAMwind15z.png.bc3a08dcc785a531d3d18a52262de74b



Hmm interesting.


Yellow line. I’ve seen this one before. Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 4 3879db10

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Post by 2004blackwrx Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:52 pm

not a big storm but nice to be in the potential bulls eye

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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:06 pm

17* right now with a dew point of 8*. Hard time believing I change to rain tomorrow. Freezing rain, with a warm nose above? Maybe. But plain rain? I’m skeptical.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:54 pm

22 degrees here. I'm hoping whatever I see is only snow or nothing. Don't want rain to harden it all up. Or worse slush bomb.
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Post by 2004blackwrx Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:28 pm

22 degrees here too. Never got above 25 today, but boy was the sun strong melting snow.


Last edited by 2004blackwrx on Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:19 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:43 pm

Seems as though models are coming to a consensus that the 10–11th event will be passing south of NYC and will be a SNJ and mid Atlantic event.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:46 pm

@aiannone wrote:Seems as though models are coming to a consensus that the 10–11th event will be passing south of NYC and will be a SNJ and mid Atlantic event.
well that stinks, well lets hope for the 14th then. That's still far enough off that there's time for change.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:53 pm

@aiannone wrote:Seems as though models are coming to a consensus that the 10–11th event will be passing south of NYC and will be a SNJ and mid Atlantic event.

The writings been on the wall for that one since yesterday, it sinks further south every run. Plenty more after it and hopefully tomorrow delivers for the people of the North and West.
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Post by 2004blackwrx Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:00 pm

lets hope thats not the new trend

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:05 pm

@aiannone wrote:Seems as though models are coming to a consensus that the 10–11th event will be passing south of NYC and will be a SNJ and mid Atlantic event.

It is ticking North, 0Z NAM jumped up by 75 ~100miles?Like I said let's get tomorrow done before we talk Thursday/ Friday. Heights are rising on NAM and other models. Give it a few more runs to see if this is a trend.

NAM comes further south as did 3K, RGEM, 18ZGFS, HDRPS as well to about Driscoll Bridge


Last edited by amugs on Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:17 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:07 pm

0Z 3K NAM for tomorrow.

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 4 Nam3km11
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:16 pm

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 4 98283610
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 4 Namcon10

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:19 pm

The trend this winter has been for heights to rise before the storm. Dont be surprised if by tomorrow night we see this trend another couple of jumps N. Time will tell but WE TRACK!!

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Post by 2004blackwrx Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:20 pm

wow so the latest run went from delmarva to jersey

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:51 pm

My guess is Thursday’s wave stays mostly south. I’m thinking Trenton and points south. Then the Friday wave will be more north bringing snow as north as NYC. So many fluctuations at the moment

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