Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Actually, if that "trailer" system or the sort of second, secondary low does get going Friday early enough to dump snow on NJ/NY I think the storm totals may be underdone because you could possibly add another 1-3 on Friday but even if that's factored into the 6-9 (which it may be since tomorrow seems more like a 4-6) keep in mind that's not evenly spread over 36 hours. It's more like a 12 hour 6" storm tomorrow and then a 6 hour 3" storm on Friday. Almost two storms not one.

heehaw453 wrote:LOL.  The difference between GFS and GFSv16 is pretty dramatic as to where it places heavier snowfall amounts.  This is 24-36 hours out.  The models are really not having much consensus even at this range.

e.g., GFSv16 puts DC around 9" of snow within 30 hours and GFS puts DC at 2" in that same 30 hours.

18z GFS vs 18z GFS v16 LOL

billg315 wrote:The "long duration" aspect of this not being a WSW for some seems a bit misguided from the NWS to me in that, for many people the bulk of that accumulation WILL be in a 12 hour span -- primarily from about 6 a.m. tomorrow morning to 6 p.m. in the evening. Most of what falls after that will either be light/and or mixed with sleet/frz rain. So if you're in a 5-9 or 6-8 zone, I'm thinking you're getting most of that during the day tomorrow. The exception might be Long Island where you might add about half of your total on Friday so it really will be a 24-plus hour event.
Where I am, I'd bet that 95% or more of my 4-6 (or isolated 8") will fall between sunrise and sunset tomorrow. Of course Mt Holly has me in a WSW so that is different from Upton.

I agree with you. I think coordination between Mt Holly and Upton is poor for this storm. The adjacent counties being in WWA vs WSW in misleading since it's the same weather and the criteria for WSW is pretty much the same. Advisory vs. Warning has different expectations to people.

billg315 wrote:The "long duration" aspect of this not being a WSW for some seems a bit misguided from the NWS to me in that, for many people the bulk of that accumulation WILL be in a 12 hour span -- primarily from about 6 a.m. tomorrow morning to 6 p.m. in the evening. Most of what falls after that will either be light/and or mixed with sleet/frz rain. So if you're in a 5-9 or 6-8 zone, I'm thinking you're getting most of that during the day tomorrow. The exception might be Long Island where you might add about half of your total on Friday so it really will be a 24-plus hour event.
Where I am, I'd bet that 95% or more of my 4-6 (or isolated 8") will fall between sunrise and sunset tomorrow. Of course Mt Holly has me in a WSW so that is different from Upton.

right? It makes no sense, they have the same criteria. Upton is always wonky if you ask me.

The decision to call a WWA instead of a WSW for parts of the NY area on this actually is a great academic argument. Because technically, the 2/1 blizzard lasted by me from 12 noon on 1/31 until the morning of 2/3 when the off and on light snow finally stopped. Let's even give them Tuesday (I'll give it a free day and say the steady snow ended Tuesday, despite that final shot Wednesday morning). So I got about 17.5" of snow total. But since the storm lasted three days and that averages out to less than 6" per 24 hours, should that not have been a winter storm warning? I mean in reality my snow fell during about a 6 hour period Sunday, another 6 hour period Monday (after a 12 hour "lull"), and just minor accumulations from Monday afternoon through Tuesday. So it really was 16" in 12 hours, but if you spread it over the whole storm it didn't even average 6" per 24 hours. lol

....did I accidently stumble on to facebook? Good lord guys, take it to banter.

In actual weather-related news, my temp here in Hopatcong never got above freezing today. I hope that will help with accumulations when this thing gets going tomorrow. I still have over 12 inches on the ground (obviously roads are clear but I haven't seen my lawn since Janurary). Made sure to clear a nice spot to measure.

I don't anticipate this being a major event, but I think we would all benefit from taking a step back and remember where we were at this time last year. This event would have been looked at as a gift from the snow gods themselves.....

I have a 15 pack of Blue Point "The IPA" (shout out to my LI folks on here!!) and a little Jameson in case I need to refuel my snow removal equipment (that's me, by the way )

Let it snow!

sroc4 wrote:

DAYBLAZER wrote:....did I accidently stumble on to facebook? Good lord guys, take it to banter.

In actual weather-related news, my temp here in Hopatcong never got above freezing today. I hope that will help with accumulations when this thing gets going tomorrow. I still have over 12 inches on the ground (obviously roads are clear but I haven't seen my lawn since Janurary). Made sure to clear a nice spot to measure.

I don't anticipate this being a major event, but I think we would all benefit from taking a step back and remember where we were at this time last year. This event would have been looked at as a gift from the snow gods themselves.....

I have a 15 pack of Blue Point "The IPA" (shout out to my LI folks on here!!) and a little Jameson in case I need to refuel my snow removal equipment (that's me, by the way )

Let it snow!

Love it.  If you can find it try their "Hoptical Illusion" Also a pretty good IPA

I'm a fan of their toasted lager

sroc4 wrote:

DAYBLAZER wrote:I have a 15 pack of Blue Point "The IPA" (shout out to my LI folks on here!!)

Love it.  If you can find it try their "Hoptical Illusion" Also a pretty good IPA

LOVE Hoptical Illusion. In fact I'm a big fan of a lot of Blue Point products. Their Toasted Lager is a favorite of mine at the lake during the summer months. You guys are alright over there

Are we still anticipating a general start time of between 5-8 am tomorrow, south to north? I always like to see the start of a storm, so I'm trying to figure out when to set my alarm for tomorrow. Luckily I can work from home, which I am incredibly thankful for as I know others do not have that option.

EDIT: after posting this I see that Mr. aiannone is also a fan. Cheers mates!

sroc4 wrote: I moved the beer convo to banter, but couldnt agree more.  In fact a cold one when I get home from work is in order.  

Regarding start time I think out by me in eastern half of LI Im thinking more like 9a-12p start.

Rightly so, I don't want to be a hypocrite. Will pick it up over there.

One of my favorite parts of any snow event is seeing the start. The first few flakes, seeing it gradually get heavier, the initial covering of the roads and trees....it is extremely cathartic and exciting at the same time.

DAYBLAZER wrote:

sroc4 wrote: I moved the beer convo to banter, but couldnt agree more.  In fact a cold one when I get home from work is in order.  

Regarding start time I think out by me in eastern half of LI Im thinking more like 9a-12p start.

Rightly so, I don't want to be a hypocrite. Will pick it up over there.

One of my favorite parts of any snow event is seeing the start. The first few flakes, seeing it gradually get heavier, the initial covering of the roads and trees....it is extremely cathartic and exciting at the same time.

I totally agree Dayblazer. If a snowstorm is not a dayblazer, bigtime bummer for me. One reason I’m not sweating all this model mayhem is cuz I seem locked into that 7 am start imby and for good stuff to start quickly after that. I’m focusing less on the after storm total and more on the awesome snow day in store for the kids (of all ages).

SENJsnowman wrote:

DAYBLAZER wrote:

sroc4 wrote: I moved the beer convo to banter, but couldnt agree more.  In fact a cold one when I get home from work is in order.  

Regarding start time I think out by me in eastern half of LI Im thinking more like 9a-12p start.

Rightly so, I don't want to be a hypocrite. Will pick it up over there.

One of my favorite parts of any snow event is seeing the start. The first few flakes, seeing it gradually get heavier, the initial covering of the roads and trees....it is extremely cathartic and exciting at the same time.

I totally agree Dayblazer. If a snowstorm is not a dayblazer, bigtime bummer for me. One reason I’m not sweating all this model mayhem is cuz I seem locked into that 7 am start imby and for good stuff to start quickly after that. I’m focusing less on the after storm total and more on the awesome snow day in store for the kids (of all ages).

yup my daughter is on break so we will def be playing in the snow : ) I too love that initial spit into light, to moderate and above and watching the bare areas slowly coat over. It's all dirty here now will be nice to see it all white again.

aiannone wrote:

See I was not alone, ive seen other posts about it too. NWS needs to have agreement as warning does stick to people more than advisory. If I did not see the WWA and snow totals I would assume we were getting 2-4 inches tops.

The HRRR looks good for a moderate to heavy front end thump, doesnt go out far enough but the sleet area is far south.

Ummm 3km NAM is still snowing late Friday night in some places!!! Wow Southern NJ all way to south of AC gets jackpot. SNJsnowman will be happy if verifies!!

I’m hearing Lee Goldberg called out Upton’s decision to go with a WWA. He said it’s only going to cause confusion.

I have a feeling/hoping Upton issues warnings tomorrow morning if the current forecast verifies. 6-10 is still a storm.

Here is the 18z Euro Snowmap for the storm. Has the snow beginning early tomorrow with steadiest/heaviest snow late morning to late afternoon and light snow hanging out through much of Friday.

SENJ Snowman, where you at? That jackpot is awfully close to you!

This is what is going to allow this as it did with the SB storm to be on the higher end of total - a huge fetch of GOM moisture and convection tis always bodes well for these types of storms

nutleyblizzard wrote:I’m hearing Lee Goldberg called out Upton’s decision to go with a WWA. He said it’s  only going to cause confusion.

That he did and I CANNOT TELL YOU HOW MANY OF MY PEEPS are confused and thinking this is a noting nuisance storm - ARGGHHHH!!!

Has the heaviest axis of precipitation shifted south or is the euro an outlier with that?

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/021721_5pm.pdf

lglickman1 wrote:Has the heaviest axis of precipitation shifted south or is the euro an outlier with that?

So the NAM and Euro both have that heaviest zone in pretty much the same location. The GFS is odd as, (I think Heehaw pointed this out) the GFS has the higher totals more north (but less expansive) but the GFS Para has the highest totals way south from DC through DE and far SNJ. I'm kind of tossing the GFS now because everything about it is acting weird. lol. And the Euro and NAM are closer to agreement.