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Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:01 pm

@billg315 wrote:The "long duration" aspect of this not being a WSW for some seems a bit misguided from the NWS to me in that, for many people the bulk of that accumulation WILL be in a 12 hour span -- primarily from about 6 a.m. tomorrow morning to 6 p.m. in the evening. Most of what falls after that will either be light/and or mixed with sleet/frz rain. So if you're in a 5-9 or 6-8 zone, I'm thinking you're getting most of that during the day tomorrow. The exception might be Long Island where you might add about half of your total on Friday so it really will be a 24-plus hour event.
Where I am, I'd bet that 95% or more of my 4-6 (or isolated 8") will fall between sunrise and sunset tomorrow. Of course Mt Holly has me in a WSW so that is different from Upton.

I agree with you. I think coordination between Mt Holly and Upton is poor for this storm. The adjacent counties being in WWA vs WSW in misleading since it's the same weather and the criteria for WSW is pretty much the same. Advisory vs. Warning has different expectations to people.

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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:03 pm

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 4 Captur11
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:04 pm

@billg315 wrote:The "long duration" aspect of this not being a WSW for some seems a bit misguided from the NWS to me in that, for many people the bulk of that accumulation WILL be in a 12 hour span -- primarily from about 6 a.m. tomorrow morning to 6 p.m. in the evening. Most of what falls after that will either be light/and or mixed with sleet/frz rain. So if you're in a 5-9 or 6-8 zone, I'm thinking you're getting most of that during the day tomorrow. The exception might be Long Island where you might add about half of your total on Friday so it really will be a 24-plus hour event.
Where I am, I'd bet that 95% or more of my 4-6 (or isolated 8") will fall between sunrise and sunset tomorrow. Of course Mt Holly has me in a WSW so that is different from Upton.
right? It makes no sense, they have the same criteria. Upton is always wonky if you ask me.
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:09 pm

The decision to call a WWA instead of a WSW for parts of the NY area on this actually is a great academic argument. Because technically, the 2/1 blizzard lasted by me from 12 noon on 1/31 until the morning of 2/3 when the off and on light snow finally stopped. Let's even give them Tuesday (I'll give it a free day and say the steady snow ended Tuesday, despite that final shot Wednesday morning). So I got about 17.5" of snow total. But since the storm lasted three days and that averages out to less than 6" per 24 hours, should that not have been a winter storm warning? I mean in reality my snow fell during about a 6 hour period Sunday, another 6 hour period Monday (after a 12 hour "lull"), and just minor accumulations from Monday afternoon through Tuesday. So it really was 16" in 12 hours, but if you spread it over the whole storm it didn't even average 6" per 24 hours. lol
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Post by DAYBLAZER Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:27 pm

....did I accidently stumble on to facebook? Good lord guys, take it to banter.

In actual weather-related news, my temp here in Hopatcong never got above freezing today. I hope that will help with accumulations when this thing gets going tomorrow. I still have over 12 inches on the ground (obviously roads are clear but I haven't seen my lawn since Janurary). Made sure to clear a nice spot to measure.

I don't anticipate this being a major event, but I think we would all benefit from taking a step back and remember where we were at this time last year. This event would have been looked at as a gift from the snow gods themselves.....

I have a 15 pack of Blue Point "The IPA" (shout out to my LI folks on here!!) and a little Jameson in case I need to refuel my snow removal equipment (that's me, by the way Twisted Evil )

Let it snow!
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:29 pm

@DAYBLAZER wrote:....did I accidently stumble on to facebook? Good lord guys, take it to banter.

In actual weather-related news, my temp here in Hopatcong never got above freezing today. I hope that will help with accumulations when this thing gets going tomorrow. I still have over 12 inches on the ground (obviously roads are clear but I haven't seen my lawn since Janurary). Made sure to clear a nice spot to measure.

I don't anticipate this being a major event, but I think we would all benefit from taking a step back and remember where we were at this time last year. This event would have been looked at as a gift from the snow gods themselves.....

I have a 15 pack of Blue Point "The IPA" (shout out to my LI folks on here!!) and a little Jameson in case I need to refuel my snow removal equipment (that's me, by the way Twisted Evil )

Let it snow!

Love it. If you can find it try their "Hoptical Illusion" Also a pretty good IPA

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:30 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@DAYBLAZER wrote:....did I accidently stumble on to facebook? Good lord guys, take it to banter.

In actual weather-related news, my temp here in Hopatcong never got above freezing today. I hope that will help with accumulations when this thing gets going tomorrow. I still have over 12 inches on the ground (obviously roads are clear but I haven't seen my lawn since Janurary). Made sure to clear a nice spot to measure.

I don't anticipate this being a major event, but I think we would all benefit from taking a step back and remember where we were at this time last year. This event would have been looked at as a gift from the snow gods themselves.....

I have a 15 pack of Blue Point "The IPA" (shout out to my LI folks on here!!) and a little Jameson in case I need to refuel my snow removal equipment (that's me, by the way Twisted Evil )

Let it snow!

Love it.  If you can find it try their "Hoptical Illusion" Also a pretty good IPA

I'm a fan of their toasted lager
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Post by DAYBLAZER Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:36 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@DAYBLAZER wrote:I have a 15 pack of Blue Point "The IPA" (shout out to my LI folks on here!!)

Love it.  If you can find it try their "Hoptical Illusion" Also a pretty good IPA

LOVE Hoptical Illusion. In fact I'm a big fan of a lot of Blue Point products. Their Toasted Lager is a favorite of mine at the lake during the summer months. You guys are alright over there What a Face

Are we still anticipating a general start time of between 5-8 am tomorrow, south to north? I always like to see the start of a storm, so I'm trying to figure out when to set my alarm for tomorrow. Luckily I can work from home, which I am incredibly thankful for as I know others do not have that option.

EDIT: after posting this I see that Mr. aiannone is also a fan. Cheers mates! geek
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:42 pm

@DAYBLAZER wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@DAYBLAZER wrote:I have a 15 pack of Blue Point "The IPA" (shout out to my LI folks on here!!)

Love it.  If you can find it try their "Hoptical Illusion" Also a pretty good IPA

LOVE Hoptical Illusion. In fact I'm a big fan of a lot of Blue Point products. Their Toasted Lager is a favorite of mine at the lake during the summer months. You guys are alright over there What a Face

Are we still anticipating a general start time of between 5-8 am tomorrow, south to north? I always like to see the start of a storm, so I'm trying to figure out when to set my alarm for tomorrow. Luckily I can work from home, which I am incredibly thankful for as I know others do not have that option.

EDIT: after posting this I see that Mr. aiannone is also a fan. Cheers mates! geek

I moved the beer convo to banter, but couldnt agree more.  In fact a cold one when I get home from work is in order.  

Regarding start time I think out by me in eastern half of LI Im thinking more like 9a-12p start.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by DAYBLAZER Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:52 pm

@sroc4 wrote: I moved the beer convo to banter, but couldnt agree more.  In fact a cold one when I get home from work is in order.  

Regarding start time I think out by me in eastern half of LI Im thinking more like 9a-12p start.

Rightly so, I don't want to be a hypocrite. Will pick it up over there.

One of my favorite parts of any snow event is seeing the start. The first few flakes, seeing it gradually get heavier, the initial covering of the roads and trees....it is extremely cathartic and exciting at the same time.
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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:08 pm

@DAYBLAZER wrote:
@sroc4 wrote: I moved the beer convo to banter, but couldnt agree more.  In fact a cold one when I get home from work is in order.  

Regarding start time I think out by me in eastern half of LI Im thinking more like 9a-12p start.

Rightly so, I don't want to be a hypocrite. Will pick it up over there.

One of my favorite parts of any snow event is seeing the start. The first few flakes, seeing it gradually get heavier, the initial covering of the roads and trees....it is extremely cathartic and exciting at the same time.

I totally agree Dayblazer. If a snowstorm is not a dayblazer, bigtime bummer for me. One reason I’m not sweating all this model mayhem is cuz I seem locked into that 7 am start imby and for good stuff to start quickly after that. I’m focusing less on the after storm total and more on the awesome snow day in store for the kids (of all ages).

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:13 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:
@DAYBLAZER wrote:
@sroc4 wrote: I moved the beer convo to banter, but couldnt agree more.  In fact a cold one when I get home from work is in order.  

Regarding start time I think out by me in eastern half of LI Im thinking more like 9a-12p start.

Rightly so, I don't want to be a hypocrite. Will pick it up over there.

One of my favorite parts of any snow event is seeing the start. The first few flakes, seeing it gradually get heavier, the initial covering of the roads and trees....it is extremely cathartic and exciting at the same time.

I totally agree Dayblazer. If a snowstorm is not a dayblazer, bigtime bummer for me. One reason I’m not sweating all this model mayhem is cuz I seem locked into that 7 am start imby and for good stuff to start quickly after that. I’m focusing less on the after storm total and more on the awesome snow day in store for the kids (of all ages).
yup my daughter is on break so we will def be playing in the snow : ) I too love that initial spit into light, to moderate and above and watching the bare areas slowly coat over. It's all dirty here now will be nice to see it all white again.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:14 pm

Thar she blows!!!


Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 4 2245z

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:18 pm

@aiannone wrote:Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 4 Captur11
See I was not alone, ive seen other posts about it too. NWS needs to have agreement as warning does stick to people more than advisory. If I did not see the WWA and snow totals I would assume we were getting 2-4 inches tops.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:50 pm

The HRRR looks good for a moderate to heavy front end thump, doesnt go out far enough but the sleet area is far south.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:51 pm

Ummm 3km NAM is still snowing late Friday night in some places!!! Wow Southern NJ all way to south of AC gets jackpot. SNJsnowman will be happy if verifies!!
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:55 pm

I’m hearing Lee Goldberg called out Upton’s decision to go with a WWA. He said it’s only going to cause confusion.
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Post by Grselig Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:22 pm

I have a feeling/hoping Upton issues warnings tomorrow morning if the current forecast verifies. 6-10 is still a storm.
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:34 pm

Here is the 18z Euro Snowmap for the storm. Has the snow beginning early tomorrow with steadiest/heaviest snow late morning to late afternoon and light snow hanging out through much of Friday.
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 4 18z_eu11
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:36 pm

SENJ Snowman, where you at? That jackpot is awfully close to you!
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:45 pm

This is what is going to allow this as it did with the SB storm to be on the higher end of total - a huge fetch of GOM moisture and convection tis always bodes well for these types of storms

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 4 Untitled.png.54bf7616cd8a807aaef5a7ddc7ce13d3

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:46 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:I’m hearing Lee Goldberg called out Upton’s decision to go with a WWA. He said it’s  only going to cause confusion.

That he did and I CANNOT TELL YOU HOW MANY OF MY PEEPS are confused and thinking this is a noting nuisance storm - ARGGHHHH!!!

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Post by lglickman1 Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:54 pm

Has the heaviest axis of precipitation shifted south or is the euro an outlier with that?

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Post by GreyBeard Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:59 pm

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/021721_5pm.pdf

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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:00 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:Has the heaviest axis of precipitation shifted south or is the euro an outlier with that?

So the NAM and Euro both have that heaviest zone in pretty much the same location. The GFS is odd as, (I think Heehaw pointed this out) the GFS has the higher totals more north (but less expansive) but the GFS Para has the highest totals way south from DC through DE and far SNJ. I'm kind of tossing the GFS now because everything about it is acting weird. lol. And the Euro and NAM are closer to agreement.
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