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March 2021 Observations and Discussions

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 28, 2021 10:49 am

8.5 inches otg this morning. 59.4 inches for the season, 36° currently.

As I've stated Ad nauseam the last several days this snow pack is not going anywhere quickly. February was a very good month for snow pack, with over a foot on the ground for 24 of the 28 days. I'll sign for that any year.

January was bad, pretty snowless and above normal temps, and December was ruined by the Christmas Eve nightmare which washed away a beautiful white Christmas in one horrifying night.

It will be up to March whether this winter grades exceptional or just okay. We shall see.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 28, 2021 8:45 pm

March is not looking so great at the moment

Although there will be a transient time when the -NAO returns, the trough axis is positioned too far east in response to a -PNA pattern that is poised to set-up

What does interest me is the MJO. Some models forecast an MJO in phase 8. If true, the models may try to build more ridging into the EPO/PNA domains. Unfortunately, the Stratospheric PV was never destroyed during the late January SSWE. A forceful displacement delivered a historic February, but now that zonal winds are easterly again, I suspect the AO/NAO to be majority positive this month.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:23 am

I agree, but March can still be sneaky and ridging isn't as critical as it is in Dec and January with shorter wavelengths in March. I don't expect much, but you never know.

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Post by amugs Mon Mar 01, 2021 12:11 pm


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by frank 638 Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:03 pm

Wow winds are howling temps are dropping and my snow is gone 🤣

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Post by amugs Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:32 pm

Winds are howling here

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Post by Radz Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:35 am

19* winds still occasionally howling, real feel 7*
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Post by dkodgis Tue Mar 02, 2021 7:53 am

Yes! Winds are up and down but when blowing, howling. 12 degrees this morning. The pack is still out there and as CP said in one post, it is like cement.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:51 am

Currently 18° morning low of 14°, windy as hell brutal out, 6.5 inches of snow otg.

34 consecutive days with snow cover and 30 days consecutive above half a foot, 44 days of snow cover for the winter. One of my criteria for a winter to be a C+ or above is 30 consecutive days of snow cover at some point and at least 50 days in total. It looks like both will be met this year.

At 59.4 inches for the season now, which is already 10 inches above normal for a full season any half way decent March should grade this winter out as a B. If somehow we had snow cover for almost all of March this still has B+ potential, however atm that looks unlikely.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:14 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Currently 18° morning low of 14°, windy as hell brutal out, 6.5 inches of snow otg.

34 consecutive days with snow cover and 30 days consecutive above half a foot, 44 days of snow cover for the winter. One of my criteria for a winter to be a C+ or above is 30 consecutive days of snow cover at some point and at least 50 days in total. It looks like both will be met this year.

At 59.4 inches for the season now, which is already 10 inches above normal for a full season any half way decent March should grade this winter out as a B. If somehow we had snow cover for almost all of March this still has B+ potential, however atm that looks unlikely.

Same here CP, still a solid snowpack. Think it should hold another week, some cold days in the 7 day forecast.After last years misery, this season has been great.A 13 and 25 inch storm plus smaller ones.February was a winter lovers delight up in our neck of the woods.I am thinking B right now, but of we got a 12 inch plus in March I would bring it to B+.The fly in the ointment this year was the horrid loss of our White Christmas in the most dastardly way.However, overall it's been a blast!
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Post by dkodgis Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:53 am

I will say up county it is a bit different weather, and from 119 on Route 17 heading west up past Bloomingburg and 30 minutes later into Hurleyville...it is of course colder with more snow. Sometimes it is decidedly so. When I teach up that way, I am amazed at the differences. It is the same with one side of the Hudson vs. the other...like being in another weather situation just crossing the Bear Mountain. Right now it is 30 degrees near 9 o'clock and bright. Bears will be back out soon. There go the feeders.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:51 am

5 inches of snow otg, 35° , 36 consecutive days of snow cover and 46 days of snow cover for the season.

This stuff is holding up tough as we all suspected it would. I would guess it's demise finally comes during next weeks three days in the 50's. By then I will have reached my minimum standard for an acceptable winter of 50 days of snow cover.

I still am baffled how some people in the NYC/coastal plain area rated the winter of 2015/16 as an A all from one big blizzard there of 30+ inches and virtually no snow before or after it. I could almost accept that if there was sustained cold and a snow pack that lasted weeks after it, but if memory serves there was a mild spell almost immediately after and it was gone from most of those areas within a week. Everyone has their own grading systems but how is a winter with no sustained snow cover anything above a D?
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Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:52 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:5 inches of snow otg, 35° , 36 consecutive days of snow cover and 46 days of snow cover for the season.

This stuff is holding up tough as we all suspected it would. I would guess it's demise finally comes during next weeks three days in the 50's. By then I will have reached my minimum standard for an acceptable winter of 50 days of snow cover.

I still am baffled how some people in the NYC/coastal plain area rated the winter of 2015/16 as an A all from one big blizzard there of 30+ inches and virtually no snow before or after it. I could almost accept that if there was sustained cold and a snow pack that lasted weeks after it, but if memory serves there was a mild spell almost immediately after and it was gone from most of those areas within a week. Everyone has their own grading systems but how is a winter with no sustained snow cover anything above a D?

Same here CP.My entire property still has snowpack.Looks like we keep it for another week before the 50's pop up.

I am leaning towards a B grade here.The December 13 inch storm was great, and it hung around for a while.February was outstanding with the 25 inch storm here plus smaller storms.Snowpack into the first week of March as well.What knocks it from an A is the horror of Christmas and January being sub par.

Guess we would all on the board have to hash out a standardized winter grading system.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:10 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:5 inches of snow otg, 35° , 36 consecutive days of snow cover and 46 days of snow cover for the season.

This stuff is holding up tough as we all suspected it would. I would guess it's demise finally comes during next weeks three days in the 50's. By then I will have reached my minimum standard for an acceptable winter of 50 days of snow cover.

I still am baffled how some people in the NYC/coastal plain area rated the winter of 2015/16 as an A all from one big blizzard there of 30+ inches and virtually no snow before or after it. I could almost accept that if there was sustained cold and a snow pack that lasted weeks after it, but if memory serves there was a mild spell almost immediately after and it was gone from most of those areas within a week. Everyone has their own grading systems but how is a winter with no sustained snow cover anything above a D?

Same here CP.My entire property still has snowpack.Looks like we keep it for another week before the 50's pop up.

I am leaning towards a B grade here.The December 13 inch storm was great, and it hung around for a while.February was outstanding with the 25 inch storm here plus smaller storms.Snowpack into the first week of March as well.What knocks it from an A is the horror of Christmas and January being sub par.

Guess we would all on the board have to hash out a standardized winter grading system.

For a simple system this is what works for me, the CP system of grading winter which can be used in any location.

Whatever your seasonal snowfall average is, that should equal the number of days of snowcover for the season as  a passing grade. So here in Orange County we average anywhere from 45-55 inches depending on where in  the county you live and at what elevation.

Here in Highland Mills we average about 50 inches per year. Give me 50 inches of snow in a season and 50 days with snow cover and it's generally acceptable C+, B- area. Then you can factor in the other things, sustained cold spell, significant storms, white Christmas etc.

Right now we're at 59.4 inches for the season and 46 days with snow cover with 36 straights days and counting. Generally this would be a B since we will hit 50 days of snow cover, by this weekend, but the winter as a whole has been above normal temperature wise and of course the Christmas Eve nightmare washing away our white Christmas currently makes it a C+ in  my book. Subject to change of course. I don't close the books here until April 15th.
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Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:53 am

EXCELLENT CP!
Great explanation.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:59 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:5 inches of snow otg, 35° , 36 consecutive days of snow cover and 46 days of snow cover for the season.

This stuff is holding up tough as we all suspected it would. I would guess it's demise finally comes during next weeks three days in the 50's. By then I will have reached my minimum standard for an acceptable winter of 50 days of snow cover.

I still am baffled how some people in the NYC/coastal plain area rated the winter of 2015/16 as an A all from one big blizzard there of 30+ inches and virtually no snow before or after it. I could almost accept that if there was sustained cold and a snow pack that lasted weeks after it, but if memory serves there was a mild spell almost immediately after and it was gone from most of those areas within a week. Everyone has their own grading systems but how is a winter with no sustained snow cover anything above a D?

CP you have to understand when you live along the coastal plain having sustained snow cover is not something typically expected, but rather cherished as a blessing from the heavens.  Therefore; it is well within reason to not include snow cover as a part of the formula/grading system or least has a very low weight overall in the grading system, again if you live on the coastal plain, or in my case live surrounded by water on an island.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by GreyBeard Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:25 pm

Once a storm delivers, I could care less how deep my snow pack is, or how long it lasts. To each his own. Just as one persons criteria for a good winter can differ from another's, I wouldn't presume to tell people how they should grade their winter according to my standards.

I was told that if you sprinkle a few drops of this onto your snow pack each day, it could last 'til tax day. Oh, and it will smell nice too. Give it a shot.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:51 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:Once a storm delivers, I could care less how deep my snow pack is, or how long it lasts. To each his own. Just as one persons criteria for a good winter can differ from another's, I wouldn't presume to tell people how they should grade their winter according to my standards.

I was told that if you sprinkle a few drops of this onto your snow pack each day, it could last 'til tax day. Oh, and it will smell nice too. Give it a shot.

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lol! lol! lol! lol! lol! lol! lol! lol!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:13 pm

Windy as heck out and temps at 26* here.

Beautiful warm up torch next week th4n....da da dannnnneeee.
Winter returns second half of March with cold and interior snow chances!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:28 am

Thumbs up


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Mar 06, 2021 7:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by docstox12 Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:15 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@GreyBeard wrote:Once a storm delivers, I could care less how deep my snow pack is, or how long it lasts. To each his own. Just as one persons criteria for a good winter can differ from another's, I wouldn't presume to tell people how they should grade their winter according to my standards.

I was told that if you sprinkle a few drops of this onto your snow pack each day, it could last 'til tax day. Oh, and it will smell nice too. Give it a shot.

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LOL  lol!  lol!  lol!

But jokes aside, winter storms are of course what we all crave, but without desiring the snow cover afterwards it's like having sex with someone but not wanting anything to do with them right afterward. I believe that's called a prostitute, and that greybeard makes you a snow whore my friend.

lol! lol! lol! lol!
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Post by GreyBeard Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:23 pm

Smile


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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:35 pm

Thumbs up


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Mar 06, 2021 7:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by GreyBeard Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:52 pm

If that was your intent then I read you wrong. When you start your post with "jokes aside" to me that means you aren't joking, well at least that's how I took it. I suggest we delete our posts and move on. As they say it's sometimes hard to read someone's intent thru their posts as I have obviously misread yours.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:57 pm

Gentlemen gentlemen!!!!   Pump the breaks.  Greybeard I thought what you wrote was brilliant.  Cp's response was equally clever and brilliant IMHO, and I personally didn't take it that he was attacking you, but rather attemtpting to volley the witty banter back at ya.  I did think about removing it though and putting it in banter, but since we have some pretty boring weather for some time for now ehh..keep it here.

With that said fellas lets just end it here.  If we keep going down the current path I will be forced to delete it all.   Lets do a virtual hand shake and be done with it.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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