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Long Range Discussion 22.0

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heehaw453
algae888
aiannone
MattyICE
frank 638
Frank_Wx
docstox12
dkodgis
amugs
sroc4
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Post by algae888 Thu Nov 11, 2021 5:04 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Al I think Im the glass empty guy and your the half full guy.  Between the two of us we have a full glass...lol  I dont mean to be going against the grain here but I was thinking about writing up these thoughts anyway.  
Yea no problem Scott all good.  I think what is a given is a negative WPO which usually correlates to a cold Canada.   If we can get help from the EPO and PNA then we'll be in business.  My thinking is that LA Nina's usually start fast and that's what I'm going with right now.   Climo is hostile for snow right now however 12G EFS members and 15 EPS members give us an inch or more of snow by Thanksgiving. couple of heavy hitters within both of them not saying it's gonna happen and probably won't but we can't rule it out
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Post by algae888 Thu Nov 11, 2021 5:06 pm

This is a good analysis from a met from another board

Pretty good cold pool on our side. True PV is on other side of pole, but enough of one exists on this side and is pinned here allowing Canada to be cold. That looks to try to spill into the US. Also, 50mb strat PV aligns fairly well with the 500mb look. So it seems like there is some stability to the look. Normal caveats apply, but fingers crossed.
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Post by amugs Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:50 pm

Just has a Winter Forecast presentation from Larry Cosgrove and very interesting.
He metrics for his forecast are MJO, ENSO, SUN Flares, Analog years that best match up with these. These are the maps he shared - I ran the meeting so I have these maps to share.
Overview
He thinks Dec is cold for the most part and chances of snow maybe a decent size storm.
January thinks we have a thaw and then we plunge deep into winter with one two possibly two big storms as the PV elongates. Thinks it will last through Midish February then the SE Ridge starts to erode teh cold as the wavelengths change. March is a typical March month temps up and down but not much precipitation.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 4_pane10
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 4_pane11
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 2021-210

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 Cpc_en10
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 Djfm_j10
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 Oni_3_10

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 Storm_10

Enjoy and thoughts?

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Post by amugs Fri Nov 12, 2021 9:48 am

Lets see who wins the latest round of LR forecast!

EPS
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 FD_5IC_XMAIKDNM?format=png&name=medium

GEFS
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 FD_5J-eXMAUJWe2?format=png&name=medium

GEPS (AKA CANADIAN)
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 FD_5Lt6XoAYmVj5?format=png&name=medium

IF EPS wins then the EPO is Negative and we get a nice cold dump.
GEFS = mild pacific air
GEPS = Colder but not as with the EPO being Positive

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Post by amugs Fri Nov 12, 2021 10:22 am


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Post by heehaw453 Sat Nov 13, 2021 10:12 am

Another take on the winter outlook. DT placing a lot of emphasis on the location and strength of the La Nina.

DT Winter Outlook

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Post by dkodgis Sat Nov 13, 2021 11:40 am

HeeHaw, thank you. That was an interesting read. I liked the format and it was easy enough to understand.
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Post by amugs Sat Nov 13, 2021 2:45 pm

EPS harping on a cold week for Turkey!
4 straight runs. We'll see

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 FEF-W5jXIA87bEQ.png.040e38d7f137580d9c04b957588f2c30

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Nov 13, 2021 4:50 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Another take on the winter outlook.  DT placing a lot of emphasis on the location and strength of the La Nina.

DT Winter Outlook

Very interesting and easy to digest indeed. And encouraging for the winter weather weenies! I copied/pasted the highlights of his summary pages as well as what might go wrong. I also italicized the one sentence in the summary that I found most intriguing. Enjoy!

SUMMARY WINTER 2021-22

The CONSENSUS forecast (from CPC, etc. ) that this La Nina is like one last winter is without any merit whatsoever.

Moreover the view that all La Nina events are the same and bring the same winter patterns is equally false.  

The La Nina of 2021-22 will be a WEAK event. It may briefly reach Moderate threshold in DEC, then weaken steadily

Weak La Nina winters are VERY different from Moderate/ Strong La Nina. They are colder and offer more blocking patterns that allow for winter storms in the central and eastern CONUS that are not nearly as dry.

This weak La Nina will be CP/ central Pacific based. The combination of CP and Weak La Nina supports what could be a cold, stormy winter for the central and eastern CONUS.

The winter in the central and eastern CONUS will get off to a relatively early start in the eastern CONUS and along the West Coast and northern Rockies.

Research shows that back to back La Nina winters always show the 2ndLa Nina to be WEAK, and  the 2ndLa Nina winters are substantially colder and wetter than regular La Nina winters.

The 500mb climo of weak Central Pacific La Nina winter is quite stormy and cold for eastern half of the CONUS.

The QBO TREND of 2021, matches several of the severe cold & snowier winters of the past.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG?

As the Weak La Nina fades, other factors will come into play. One  factor is the large pool of cold SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies) in the Northeast Pacific.

This cold water has increased SIGNIFICANTLY in OCT, as several massive intense Low pressure areas in the NE Pacific have generated “upwelling” of colder water.

In the 2d half of the winter, IF the –AO and or the –NAO  fade, then the –PDO will take over as the primary driving force. This would turn the pattern warm in  FEB 2022.

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Post by amugs Sat Nov 13, 2021 7:44 pm

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 Image.png.59d07af9be96d24c34a6962c1cfad764

GEFS saying NAO over feature for Turkey week. Please be right!

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Post by sroc4 Sun Nov 14, 2021 10:31 am

So Id like to comment this morning on the pattern over the next couple of weeks.  Right now it seems the single most dominate Oscillation is the WPO.  The other oscillations seem to be transiently or temporarily in their various phases or neutral; whereas, the WPO seems pretty entrenched in its negative phase(ridging) for the time being.  Lets define where the oscillations live geographically before moving on:

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 Ecmwf-66

The image above is a snap shot of the current 500mb pattern.  Below is the same image.  I have to take a quick moment to acknowledge the two Als (Mugsy and Algae) because they have been talking about "the building of the cold air over Canada".  The way I see it this statement cant be understated in its importance as we head into December.  Let's talk about that.  

Focus now on the image below and the WPO region.  The orange colors indicate a strong ridge in this region(-WPO).  Recall ridging = high pressure and clockwise winds, and Troughing(blue colors) = Low Pressure and counterclockwise winds.  Now follow the arrows.  With the -WPO in place what you get is a cross polar flow that leads to very cold air building in the area defined by the thin black circle.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 Euro_e16

Now lets focus on the EPO and PNA regions.  The blue colors indicate a +EPO(trough).  Even though its not a strong +PNA(more appropriate the PNA is not negative), the ridging in the PNA region allows the cold air to bleed S and E into our neck of the woods as energy from the EPO region marches eastward.  BUT, because the EPO is positive it allows Pac energy to persistently/continually crash the N half of the west coast(WC) of North America(NA) which flattens the ridging in the PNA region; keeping things in a bit of a transient pattern.  In the image below notice the linkage between the negatives(blue colors).  

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 Ecmwf-68

So basically the current pattern is such that over the next couple of weeks you get waves of energy from from the pacific coming into the west coast of Northern NA, flattening the ridging in the PNA region.  As it heads east, ridge in the PNA region goes back up(albiet weakly), which allows the energy to then drop into S central Canada and the northern plains.  While this is happening the next piece of Pac energy(as you can see in the image below) is crashing the WC of northern NA which flattens the PNA yet again.  The flattening of the PNA allows the Polar energy to interact with the energy in the subtropical jet early which leads to a storm track less than ideal.  ie: SE ridge flexes a tad, we get warm sectored out ahead of the storm, we get rain followed by the cold air coming in behind it.  Rinse, wash, repeat for the time being.  

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 Ecmwf-69


But here is the thing.  A storm track and pattern like this will lead to the building of the snow pack in the region outlined below.  Again going back to "the building of the cold air over Canada" statement above cant be understated.  BECAUSE, as the snow pack builds, so will the ability of the cold air to infiltrate further and further south and east.  Cold air is much more dense than warm air and eventually we will get cold air to bleed far enough s&E such that the interactions between the Polar and sub tropical energy will be late enough to bring snow into the region.  Obv it starts with areas N&W and eventually down to the coast.    

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 Gfs-en24


There is some rumblings in the modeling regarding the AO and or NAO becoming more favorable.  When of IF that happens, AND the snow pack in Canada builds, the pattern will shift such that the ability for the energy to phase early and slip to our west will begin to shift further east increasing the chances for snow.  Time will tell.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 0.00 
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Post by amugs Sun Nov 14, 2021 2:45 pm

Great write up Scott and thanks for the. shout out - one things to all our peeps one MUST keep in mind - yuo need to build the snowpack and cold air over Canada for us to have a shot at a reasonable (Normal) to great (AN) winter. 2011-12 were an aberration of this as we had the cold but noting was able to unlock it. Interestingly we have a MJO that is in phases 4-5-6 and over the maritime continent but is weak so that pulse is not a driver, Other factor then aid in this as the Ural Sea Ridge where the -WPO sets up is going to help drive the pattern. AS the wavelengths shorten as we head to winter in 6 weeks now teh chances of more significant factors pro or con may come about as well. BUT I have to say I like what I am seeing as we enter next week through early/mid December and beyond at this stage. This is a geat map for this time of year.

Low solar and a bombardment of cosmic rays (protons, plasma particles, and neutrons) for the past years is going to ay off as it has a lag affect on the weather patterns and make teh jet stream adn structure Meridional (wavy, North to South) giving one side tropical warmth and the other side brutal polar/arctic cold). So ups and downs abound but remember we informed about this!

Nice map for sure.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 FELK19PWQAMkc8k?format=png&name=medium

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Post by amugs Mon Nov 15, 2021 11:03 am

Need to keep an eye on this vorticity for Nor'Easter development next week - long ways out but the pie has teh ingredients - just need it to come together!

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 FEPvZ4mWQAILS1U?format=jpg&name=900x900

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Nov 15, 2021 12:32 pm

@amugs wrote:Need to keep an eye on this vorticity for Nor'Easter development next week - long ways out but the pie has teh ingredients - just need it to come together!

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 FEPvZ4mWQAILS1U?format=jpg&name=900x900

12Z just said yes it is possible - especially interior with cold air available

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 FEP33h-XoAUsPzk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by dkodgis Mon Nov 15, 2021 12:58 pm

Looking Tuesday-ish?
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Post by algae888 Mon Nov 15, 2021 4:37 pm

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 C826A130-6FEB-452C-8558-A8FDE17D6446.png.ee43535414b5982f3aa3edd4ba8b24fc
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Post by algae888 Mon Nov 15, 2021 4:38 pm

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 752ADEE5-5291-4567-B71D-911A1CFC9341.png.580aeb65b59d2fb89aa19ebdf4d2d262
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Post by algae888 Mon Nov 15, 2021 4:40 pm

Top image is EPS from today.  Bottom image is November 1995.  From blue wave at American weather
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Post by algae888 Mon Nov 15, 2021 4:54 pm

From what I've been reading and observing 2 important factors are happening right now now that is good for Winter weather lovers number one This LA Nina Is in its final push, strengthening but the coolest anomalies are now moving towards 120W Which is where we want them It should focus more  convectoin  near the date line As we had later into Winter.  Sub surface is warming whatever cool waters are left are now heading towards the surface and once this final push is done this LA nina will start to weaken.  Secondly while SPV  is currently stronger than normal and strengthening it remains decoupled  From the TPV  Which is  What really matters at this point.
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Post by algae888 Mon Nov 15, 2021 4:58 pm

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 Screenshot_20211115-152856_Chrome.jpg.c427fbad95799ccccd3974a27c7fbd3c
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Post by algae888 Mon Nov 15, 2021 5:07 pm

From 40/70 Benchmark on American weather . Very knowledgeable poster

"One final round of strengthening does not bother me in the slightest. I would be more concerned if it were becoming a modoki and remaining the same intensity. A marked drop that is relegated to the eastern zones is a recipe for a relatively fruitful la nina season for east coast winter enthusiasts."


"I will go to the grave swearing that Jan 2011 would not have been so epic if la nina were weaker....strong east based la nina and modoki el nino events are rare birds, and it's why seasons like 2010-2011, 2002-2003 and 2009-10 are so exceptional. It's about the location of the forcing, and it is well placed, then you want it to be a very prominent hemispheric driver. "
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Post by amugs Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:24 pm


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 16, 2021 8:14 am

The pattern does look juicy next week. The timing of a PNA spike and potential blocking to our north COULD produce our first wintry event of the season!!!

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 16, 2021 10:13 am

Juicy look - need it 150 miles SE but may get some flakes on teh backside to accumulate if EURO has a clue. Bernie on this as well.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 5 Image.png.67ba2979ce530b97530c893d9de4ca48

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 17, 2021 12:42 pm

My gut is telling me that the pattern just isn't quite ready for snow yet, esp the Pac side of things. That said we do still have to watch how the blocking in the N Atlantic evolves in the modeling. If in the right place and the energy comes in at the right time there is def wintry possibilities still on the table.

Still way too much time and too many model runs to get excited, or write anything off just yet.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 0.00 
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