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January 2022 Obs & Discussions

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:22 pm

Here comes the bitter shot of cold air!

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 Nam3km_T2m_neus_25

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 Nam3km_T2m_neus_48

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:37 pm

amugs wrote:Here comes the bitter shot of cold air!

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 Nam3km_T2m_neus_25

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 Nam3km_T2m_neus_48

Honestly I was expecting a little colder from this air mass. I made -1° from the last one I was hoping this one could make -5°. Time will tell, a few more cold shots next week.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:48 pm

currently at 33* we had a dusting on grassy surfaces..snow is done
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:14 pm

ended with a solid inch on non paved surface, 1/2" on paved. Ill take it

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Post by GreyBeard Thu Jan 20, 2022 2:38 pm

sroc4 wrote:Puking snow at the moment.  Accumulating fast on non paved surfaces


sroc4 wrote:ended with a solid inch on non paved surface, 1/2" on paved.  Ill take it


Your end result was more of a burp than a regurgitation. jocolor

34°, what little we had here is long gone. Looks like I'll be making the oil company a bit richer in the week ahead.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 20, 2022 2:55 pm

GreyBeard wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Puking snow at the moment.  Accumulating fast on non paved surfaces


sroc4 wrote:ended with a solid inch on non paved surface, 1/2" on paved.  Ill take it


Your end result was more of a burp than a regurgitation. jocolor

34°, what little we had here is long gone. Looks like I'll be making the oil company a bit richer in the week ahead.

Lets call it a "Verp" Grey. Lol. A burb that you can taste. Too descriptive? geek

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:38 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:Here comes the bitter shot of cold air!

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 Nam3km_T2m_neus_25

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 Nam3km_T2m_neus_48

Honestly I was expecting a little colder from this air mass. I made -1° from the last one I was hoping this one could make -5°. Time will tell, a few more cold shots next week.

The Cold Miser heard you!!
January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 FJkRWaqWYAQ_eX8?format=png&name=small

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Jan 20, 2022 11:41 pm

Me and the 3 kiddos are heading home tomorrow, from J-ville back to Bayville. Probably going to stop for the night in northern part of North Carolina. Matter of fact, probably going to bed it down in the 95 town of Rocky Mount. About a 7 hour drive from Jacksonville and leaves about a 7 hour drive back to home for Saturday. Why post that here? Tomorrow nights forecast for Rocky Mount:

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 Wsw_rm11


Well, well, well! Lucky me I guess! I've already consulted with the Grand Council and they agree...what ever falls at the hotel while I'm there counts in my seasonal totals!! lol

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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 am

6 degrees, clear calm winds.
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Post by Snow88 Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:33 am

16 here
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Post by Radz Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:58 am

9* here currently
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:59 am

Woke up to 14* winds blowing leaving it really cold!!
And the news Meatloaf is gone Sad Sad
One of my first concerts Central Park 1978..dating myself .was a young teen..that concert was great..
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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:03 am

sroc4 wrote:
GreyBeard wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Puking snow at the moment.  Accumulating fast on non paved surfaces


sroc4 wrote:ended with a solid inch on non paved surface, 1/2" on paved.  Ill take it


Your end result was more of a burp than a regurgitation. jocolor

34°, what little we had here is long gone. Looks like I'll be making the oil company a bit richer in the week ahead.

Lets call it a "Verp" Grey.  Lol.  A burb that you can taste.  Too descriptive?  geek

Doc, you have inspired me to favor this little ode upon you.I would have posted it in OTI but it's closed for 100,000 years due to radiation contamination

"Here I sit, broken hearted,
started to puke snow
then only farted".
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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:33 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:Woke up to 14* winds blowing leaving it really cold!!
And the news Meatloaf is gone Sad Sad
One of my first concerts Central Park 1978..dating myself .was a young teen..that concert was great..

Sad news.Best memory of him was when I saw the Rocky Horror Picture show back in '79.What a hoot that movie was in a theatre, an "interactive" movie,LOL.

Looks like a nice sunny day but cold.Nice snowpack about 8 inches here.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:23 am

5° solid snowpack 6-7 inches otg, and well below normal to normal temperatures the rest of the month.

I'm okay with it, despite below normal snowfall at least it's looked and felt like winter here the past 15 days.
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Post by dkodgis Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:35 am

What CP said. 5 degrees also. The dog loves it outside. Nice to see her going into the woods and running around. It’s nice until I realize I am getting too old for the cold
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:01 am

9* for my low this morning. Va Beach to below Myrtle Beach under Winter Storm and Ice Storm Warnings. Incredible to say the least.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:14 am

From a very well respected Pro Met: Tomer Burg on 33 n Rain wx board that I'd like to share to show this difference in the pattern set up as Rb was saying in the LR thread back in mid to late Dec:

Also a little food for thought (I’ll need a bit more time to process this once I’ve had my morning coffee 😅) — compare the 500mb height anomaly over North America since we flipped to a West Coast ridge around January 10th, with a similar west coast ridge dominant pattern that also yielded many major East Coast snowstorms in Jan-Feb 2015.



They look similar, don’t they? Big differences at a quick glance being a more dominant East Canada trough, northern Canada ridging & less prominent north central Pacific trough this year vs. 2015.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 6763534A-14D8-4F6C-8C0C-F812AF7202A0.gif.306e7f04fd32270e5b19089e89e40614


These small but yet big atmospheric systems and positions meant a HUUUGGGGEEEE difference in the flow of the flow of the pattern. It was and still is a progressive fast flowing fluid pattern. Even with teh EPO block and Positive PNA (West Coast Ridge) we had nothing to slow it down on the this side in teh Hotlantic. The blocking advertised for this period just went poof and wout it and the position of the Pacific systems we were not in a good flow or position. History loves to repeat itself but never exactly the same way. So with that said we learn from this in this wx community and move on.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 AECFDA9B-67DA-4C24-95B8-89C50710245D.gif.daf119a6cf6a4a968a4cb581828c5878

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:51 am

amugs wrote:From a very well respected Pro Met: Tomer Burg on 33 n Rain wx board that I'd like to share to show this difference in the pattern set up as Rb was saying in the LR thread back in mid to late Dec:

Also a little food for thought (I’ll need a bit more time to process this once I’ve had my morning coffee 😅) — compare the 500mb height anomaly over North America since we flipped to a West Coast ridge around January 10th, with a similar west coast ridge dominant pattern that also yielded many major East Coast snowstorms in Jan-Feb 2015.



They look similar, don’t they? Big differences at a quick glance being a more dominant East Canada trough, northern Canada ridging & less prominent north central Pacific trough this year vs. 2015.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 6763534A-14D8-4F6C-8C0C-F812AF7202A0.gif.306e7f04fd32270e5b19089e89e40614


These small but yet big atmospheric systems and positions meant a HUUUGGGGEEEE difference in the flow of the flow of the pattern. It was and still is a progressive fast flowing fluid pattern. Even with teh EPO block and Positive PNA (West Coast Ridge) we had nothing to slow it down on the this side in teh Hotlantic. The blocking advertised for this period just went poof and wout it and the position of the Pacific systems we were not in a good flow or position. History loves to repeat itself but never exactly the same way. So with that said we  learn from this in this wx community and move on.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 AECFDA9B-67DA-4C24-95B8-89C50710245D.gif.daf119a6cf6a4a968a4cb581828c5878

I’m going to respectfully push back on this a bit, mugsy. First and foremost, I don’t think it’s fair to say that the blocking didn’t show up. Your height anomaly map clearly shows a reversal of the mean H5 height anomaly structure in the Atlantic domain. The difference is that it has been displaced further south versus ’15, which had no blocking whatsoever in the Atlantic domain. Additionally, my forecast in the Pacific explicitly was based on the idea that although we would have the time-mean ridge axis set up along or just off the West Coast, we would continually have shortwaves fighting their way through that mean ridge which would act similarly to a split flow, as we’d have waves fighting through that ridge (which we did) in addition to true Arctic waves diving in from the north (which we’ve also had), as has been highlighted multiple times in posts outlining all of the various pieces of energy regularly located over the CONUS throughout this month. That’s what had me so bullish on storm threats, because I was counting on there being a lot of potential interactions between waves as they (theoretically) would consolidate within the mean long-wave trough over the eastern CONUS. All of which, again, I highlighted in my video discussions and write-ups. So, from a synoptic standpoint, I think the evolution that I projected for January could not have been any better. It just comes down to the fact that it essentially was too much of a good thing by having so many potential players continually on the field and bumping elbows instead of having enough space to dance.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:19 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:5° solid snowpack 6-7 inches otg, and well below normal to normal temperatures the rest of the month.

I'm okay with it, despite below normal snowfall at least it's looked and felt like winter here the past 15 days.

I agree CP, if it was just cold with no snowpack, I would not enjoy it at all.Winter wonderland out there today.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:32 am

rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:From a very well respected Pro Met: Tomer Burg on 33 n Rain wx board that I'd like to share to show this difference in the pattern set up as Rb was saying in the LR thread back in mid to late Dec:

Also a little food for thought (I’ll need a bit more time to process this once I’ve had my morning coffee 😅) — compare the 500mb height anomaly over North America since we flipped to a West Coast ridge around January 10th, with a similar west coast ridge dominant pattern that also yielded many major East Coast snowstorms in Jan-Feb 2015.



They look similar, don’t they? Big differences at a quick glance being a more dominant East Canada trough, northern Canada ridging & less prominent north central Pacific trough this year vs. 2015.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 6763534A-14D8-4F6C-8C0C-F812AF7202A0.gif.306e7f04fd32270e5b19089e89e40614


These small but yet big atmospheric systems and positions meant a HUUUGGGGEEEE difference in the flow of the flow of the pattern. It was and still is a progressive fast flowing fluid pattern. Even with teh EPO block and Positive PNA (West Coast Ridge) we had nothing to slow it down on the this side in teh Hotlantic. The blocking advertised for this period just went poof and wout it and the position of the Pacific systems we were not in a good flow or position. History loves to repeat itself but never exactly the same way. So with that said we  learn from this in this wx community and move on.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 AECFDA9B-67DA-4C24-95B8-89C50710245D.gif.daf119a6cf6a4a968a4cb581828c5878

I’m going to respectfully push back on this a bit, mugsy. First and foremost, I don’t think it’s fair to say that the blocking didn’t show up. Your height anomaly map clearly shows a reversal of the mean H5 height anomaly structure in the Atlantic domain. The difference is that it has been displaced further south versus ’15, which had no blocking whatsoever in the Atlantic domain. Additionally, my forecast in the Pacific explicitly was based on the idea that although we would have the time-mean ridge axis set up along or just off the West Coast, we would continually have shortwaves fighting their way through that mean ridge which would act similarly to a split flow, as we’d have waves fighting through that ridge (which we did) in addition to true Arctic waves diving in from the north (which we’ve also had), as has been highlighted multiple times in posts outlining all of the various pieces of energy regularly located over the CONUS throughout this month. That’s what had me so bullish on storm threats, because I was counting on there being a lot of potential interactions between waves as they (theoretically) would consolidate within the mean long-wave trough over the eastern CONUS. All of which, again, I highlighted in my video discussions and write-ups. So, from a synoptic standpoint, I think the evolution that I projected for January could not have been any better. It just comes down to the fact that it essentially was too much of a good thing by having so many potential players continually on the field and bumping elbows instead of having enough space to dance.

Fair intellectual points made and this is not at you or anyone here just sharing his point of view which I find interesting. The one glaring aspect I guess after reviewing these maps is the placement of our Aleutians Trough and where it displaced the Ridge out west. Do not take this as a push back but just an observation and an opportunity to investigate and learn as to the what to the why. In 2015 we had a Scan block as well.
Thanks for the response.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:36 pm

amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:From a very well respected Pro Met: Tomer Burg on 33 n Rain wx board that I'd like to share to show this difference in the pattern set up as Rb was saying in the LR thread back in mid to late Dec:

Also a little food for thought (I’ll need a bit more time to process this once I’ve had my morning coffee 😅) — compare the 500mb height anomaly over North America since we flipped to a West Coast ridge around January 10th, with a similar west coast ridge dominant pattern that also yielded many major East Coast snowstorms in Jan-Feb 2015.



They look similar, don’t they? Big differences at a quick glance being a more dominant East Canada trough, northern Canada ridging & less prominent north central Pacific trough this year vs. 2015.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 6763534A-14D8-4F6C-8C0C-F812AF7202A0.gif.306e7f04fd32270e5b19089e89e40614


These small but yet big atmospheric systems and positions meant a HUUUGGGGEEEE difference in the flow of the flow of the pattern. It was and still is a progressive fast flowing fluid pattern. Even with teh EPO block and Positive PNA (West Coast Ridge) we had nothing to slow it down on the this side in teh Hotlantic. The blocking advertised for this period just went poof and wout it and the position of the Pacific systems we were not in a good flow or position. History loves to repeat itself but never exactly the same way. So with that said we  learn from this in this wx community and move on.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 16 AECFDA9B-67DA-4C24-95B8-89C50710245D.gif.daf119a6cf6a4a968a4cb581828c5878

I’m going to respectfully push back on this a bit, mugsy. First and foremost, I don’t think it’s fair to say that the blocking didn’t show up. Your height anomaly map clearly shows a reversal of the mean H5 height anomaly structure in the Atlantic domain. The difference is that it has been displaced further south versus ’15, which had no blocking whatsoever in the Atlantic domain. Additionally, my forecast in the Pacific explicitly was based on the idea that although we would have the time-mean ridge axis set up along or just off the West Coast, we would continually have shortwaves fighting their way through that mean ridge which would act similarly to a split flow, as we’d have waves fighting through that ridge (which we did) in addition to true Arctic waves diving in from the north (which we’ve also had), as has been highlighted multiple times in posts outlining all of the various pieces of energy regularly located over the CONUS throughout this month. That’s what had me so bullish on storm threats, because I was counting on there being a lot of potential interactions between waves as they (theoretically) would consolidate within the mean long-wave trough over the eastern CONUS. All of which, again, I highlighted in my video discussions and write-ups. So, from a synoptic standpoint, I think the evolution that I projected for January could not have been any better. It just comes down to the fact that it essentially was too much of a good thing by having so many potential players continually on the field and bumping elbows instead of having enough space to dance.

Fair intellectual points made and this is not at you or anyone here just sharing his point of view which I find interesting. The one glaring aspect I guess after reviewing these maps is the placement of our Aleutians Trough and where it displaced the Ridge out west. Do not take this as a push back but just an observation and an opportunity to investigate and learn as to the what to the why. In 2015 we had a Scan block as well.
Thanks for the response.

Maybe “push back on” wasn’t the best phrase for me to use lol “counter” would have probably been better, as maybe the tone of my previous response came across too stern. No hard feelings, brother, it’s a healthy discussion! I just wanted to illuminate the fact that the above maps match exactly the evolution that I had envisioned in my mind. But maybe I didn’t do enough to properly demonstrate that, which is a totally fair critique. No hard feelings, mugsy Smile we’re all in it for the love of the game, and the thrill of the chase!

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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:05 pm

Us and the snow both pulled into Rocky Mount NC early. 30* light snow sticking to cold surfaces immediately.

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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:49 pm

It’s been snowing moderately down here for the past 2 hours, closing in on an inch on the grass and cold surfaces and most roads are coated.

Everyone down here is in a straight panic. Live news coverage all night, stores closing, people calling out of work. I think we might get to that 3-4” inch mark here tonight. News reports warning people they might want to wait a few days (yes, DAYS! 🤣🤣🤣) before hitting the roads again. You can get an idea of how the stickage and snowfall rate is going down here in Dixie. Or it might just look like a blurry swirl to you all. Not sure. Either way, 27* and snowing moderately in northeast North Carolina.

Hey, I guess tonight I’m NENCsnowman. Ha ha!

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SENJsnowman

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:51 pm

Be safe SENJ and enjoy the absolute beauty of nature.

14* here and brrrr out!!

@ Rb my man great discussion and look fwd to more. Absolute truth you nailed what was to come. Fast flow and a few tweaks to the details would have done wonders. I always say we are a hair away from a NESIS most of the time.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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