January 2022 Obs & Discussions

jmanley32 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:Jman I love that casino I been there 3 times it is wonderful casino.win big money good luck

Not much luck this time, last year I had a lot luck.

I don’t know How long you staying for but you never know good luck stay positive

It’s over here and the sun is out.  0.75” new snow.  It looks nice!

Here comes the bitter shot of cold air!

amugs wrote:Here comes the bitter shot of cold air!

Honestly I was expecting a little colder from this air mass. I made -1° from the last one I was hoping this one could make -5°. Time will tell, a few more cold shots next week.

currently at 33* we had a dusting on grassy surfaces..snow is done

ended with a solid inch on non paved surface, 1/2" on paved. Ill take it

sroc4 wrote:Puking snow at the moment.  Accumulating fast on non paved surfaces

sroc4 wrote:ended with a solid inch on non paved surface, 1/2" on paved.  Ill take it

Your end result was more of a burp than a regurgitation.

34°, what little we had here is long gone. Looks like I'll be making the oil company a bit richer in the week ahead.

GreyBeard wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Puking snow at the moment.  Accumulating fast on non paved surfaces

sroc4 wrote:ended with a solid inch on non paved surface, 1/2" on paved.  Ill take it

Your end result was more of a burp than a regurgitation.

34°, what little we had here is long gone. Looks like I'll be making the oil company a bit richer in the week ahead.

Lets call it a "Verp" Grey. Lol. A burb that you can taste. Too descriptive?

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:Here comes the bitter shot of cold air!

Honestly I was expecting a little colder from this air mass. I made -1° from the last one I was hoping this one could make -5°. Time will tell, a few more cold shots next week.

The Cold Miser heard you!!

Me and the 3 kiddos are heading home tomorrow, from J-ville back to Bayville. Probably going to stop for the night in northern part of North Carolina. Matter of fact, probably going to bed it down in the 95 town of Rocky Mount. About a 7 hour drive from Jacksonville and leaves about a 7 hour drive back to home for Saturday. Why post that here? Tomorrow nights forecast for Rocky Mount:




Well, well, well! Lucky me I guess! I've already consulted with the Grand Council and they agree...what ever falls at the hotel while I'm there counts in my seasonal totals!! lol

6 degrees, clear calm winds.

16 here

9* here currently

Woke up to 14* winds blowing leaving it really cold!!
And the news Meatloaf is gone
One of my first concerts Central Park 1978..dating myself .was a young teen..that concert was great..

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Puking snow at the moment.  Accumulating fast on non paved surfaces

sroc4 wrote:ended with a solid inch on non paved surface, 1/2" on paved.  Ill take it

Your end result was more of a burp than a regurgitation.

34°, what little we had here is long gone. Looks like I'll be making the oil company a bit richer in the week ahead.

Lets call it a "Verp" Grey.  Lol.  A burb that you can taste.  Too descriptive?  

Doc, you have inspired me to favor this little ode upon you.I would have posted it in OTI but it's closed for 100,000 years due to radiation contamination

"Here I sit, broken hearted,
started to puke snow
then only farted".

weatherwatchermom wrote:Woke up to 14* winds blowing leaving it really cold!!
And the news Meatloaf is gone
One of my first concerts Central Park 1978..dating myself .was a young teen..that concert was great..

Sad news.Best memory of him was when I saw the Rocky Horror Picture show back in '79.What a hoot that movie was in a theatre, an "interactive" movie,LOL.

Looks like a nice sunny day but cold.Nice snowpack about 8 inches here.

5° solid snowpack 6-7 inches otg, and well below normal to normal temperatures the rest of the month.

I'm okay with it, despite below normal snowfall at least it's looked and felt like winter here the past 15 days.

What CP said. 5 degrees also. The dog loves it outside. Nice to see her going into the woods and running around. It’s nice until I realize I am getting too old for the cold

9* for my low this morning. Va Beach to below Myrtle Beach under Winter Storm and Ice Storm Warnings. Incredible to say the least.

From a very well respected Pro Met: Tomer Burg on 33 n Rain wx board that I'd like to share to show this difference in the pattern set up as Rb was saying in the LR thread back in mid to late Dec:

Also a little food for thought (I’ll need a bit more time to process this once I’ve had my morning coffee ) — compare the 500mb height anomaly over North America since we flipped to a West Coast ridge around January 10th, with a similar west coast ridge dominant pattern that also yielded many major East Coast snowstorms in Jan-Feb 2015.



They look similar, don’t they? Big differences at a quick glance being a more dominant East Canada trough, northern Canada ridging & less prominent north central Pacific trough this year vs. 2015.




These small but yet big atmospheric systems and positions meant a HUUUGGGGEEEE difference in the flow of the flow of the pattern. It was and still is a progressive fast flowing fluid pattern. Even with teh EPO block and Positive PNA (West Coast Ridge) we had nothing to slow it down on the this side in teh Hotlantic. The blocking advertised for this period just went poof and wout it and the position of the Pacific systems we were not in a good flow or position. History loves to repeat itself but never exactly the same way. So with that said we learn from this in this wx community and move on.

amugs wrote:From a very well respected Pro Met: Tomer Burg on 33 n Rain wx board that I'd like to share to show this difference in the pattern set up as Rb was saying in the LR thread back in mid to late Dec:

Also a little food for thought (I’ll need a bit more time to process this once I’ve had my morning coffee ) — compare the 500mb height anomaly over North America since we flipped to a West Coast ridge around January 10th, with a similar west coast ridge dominant pattern that also yielded many major East Coast snowstorms in Jan-Feb 2015.



They look similar, don’t they? Big differences at a quick glance being a more dominant East Canada trough, northern Canada ridging & less prominent north central Pacific trough this year vs. 2015.




These small but yet big atmospheric systems and positions meant a HUUUGGGGEEEE difference in the flow of the flow of the pattern. It was and still is a progressive fast flowing fluid pattern. Even with teh EPO block and Positive PNA (West Coast Ridge) we had nothing to slow it down on the this side in teh Hotlantic. The blocking advertised for this period just went poof and wout it and the position of the Pacific systems we were not in a good flow or position. History loves to repeat itself but never exactly the same way. So with that said we  learn from this in this wx community and move on.

I’m going to respectfully push back on this a bit, mugsy. First and foremost, I don’t think it’s fair to say that the blocking didn’t show up. Your height anomaly map clearly shows a reversal of the mean H5 height anomaly structure in the Atlantic domain. The difference is that it has been displaced further south versus ’15, which had no blocking whatsoever in the Atlantic domain. Additionally, my forecast in the Pacific explicitly was based on the idea that although we would have the time-mean ridge axis set up along or just off the West Coast, we would continually have shortwaves fighting their way through that mean ridge which would act similarly to a split flow, as we’d have waves fighting through that ridge (which we did) in addition to true Arctic waves diving in from the north (which we’ve also had), as has been highlighted multiple times in posts outlining all of the various pieces of energy regularly located over the CONUS throughout this month. That’s what had me so bullish on storm threats, because I was counting on there being a lot of potential interactions between waves as they (theoretically) would consolidate within the mean long-wave trough over the eastern CONUS. All of which, again, I highlighted in my video discussions and write-ups. So, from a synoptic standpoint, I think the evolution that I projected for January could not have been any better. It just comes down to the fact that it essentially was too much of a good thing by having so many potential players continually on the field and bumping elbows instead of having enough space to dance.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:5° solid snowpack 6-7 inches otg, and well below normal to normal temperatures the rest of the month.

I'm okay with it, despite below normal snowfall at least it's looked and felt like winter here the past 15 days.

I agree CP, if it was just cold with no snowpack, I would not enjoy it at all.Winter wonderland out there today.

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:From a very well respected Pro Met: Tomer Burg on 33 n Rain wx board that I'd like to share to show this difference in the pattern set up as Rb was saying in the LR thread back in mid to late Dec:

Also a little food for thought (I’ll need a bit more time to process this once I’ve had my morning coffee ) — compare the 500mb height anomaly over North America since we flipped to a West Coast ridge around January 10th, with a similar west coast ridge dominant pattern that also yielded many major East Coast snowstorms in Jan-Feb 2015.



They look similar, don’t they? Big differences at a quick glance being a more dominant East Canada trough, northern Canada ridging & less prominent north central Pacific trough this year vs. 2015.




These small but yet big atmospheric systems and positions meant a HUUUGGGGEEEE difference in the flow of the flow of the pattern. It was and still is a progressive fast flowing fluid pattern. Even with teh EPO block and Positive PNA (West Coast Ridge) we had nothing to slow it down on the this side in teh Hotlantic. The blocking advertised for this period just went poof and wout it and the position of the Pacific systems we were not in a good flow or position. History loves to repeat itself but never exactly the same way. So with that said we  learn from this in this wx community and move on.

I’m going to respectfully push back on this a bit, mugsy. First and foremost, I don’t think it’s fair to say that the blocking didn’t show up. Your height anomaly map clearly shows a reversal of the mean H5 height anomaly structure in the Atlantic domain. The difference is that it has been displaced further south versus ’15, which had no blocking whatsoever in the Atlantic domain. Additionally, my forecast in the Pacific explicitly was based on the idea that although we would have the time-mean ridge axis set up along or just off the West Coast, we would continually have shortwaves fighting their way through that mean ridge which would act similarly to a split flow, as we’d have waves fighting through that ridge (which we did) in addition to true Arctic waves diving in from the north (which we’ve also had), as has been highlighted multiple times in posts outlining all of the various pieces of energy regularly located over the CONUS throughout this month. That’s what had me so bullish on storm threats, because I was counting on there being a lot of potential interactions between waves as they (theoretically) would consolidate within the mean long-wave trough over the eastern CONUS. All of which, again, I highlighted in my video discussions and write-ups. So, from a synoptic standpoint, I think the evolution that I projected for January could not have been any better. It just comes down to the fact that it essentially was too much of a good thing by having so many potential players continually on the field and bumping elbows instead of having enough space to dance.

Fair intellectual points made and this is not at you or anyone here just sharing his point of view which I find interesting. The one glaring aspect I guess after reviewing these maps is the placement of our Aleutians Trough and where it displaced the Ridge out west. Do not take this as a push back but just an observation and an opportunity to investigate and learn as to the what to the why. In 2015 we had a Scan block as well.
Thanks for the response.

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:From a very well respected Pro Met: Tomer Burg on 33 n Rain wx board that I'd like to share to show this difference in the pattern set up as Rb was saying in the LR thread back in mid to late Dec:

Also a little food for thought (I’ll need a bit more time to process this once I’ve had my morning coffee ) — compare the 500mb height anomaly over North America since we flipped to a West Coast ridge around January 10th, with a similar west coast ridge dominant pattern that also yielded many major East Coast snowstorms in Jan-Feb 2015.



They look similar, don’t they? Big differences at a quick glance being a more dominant East Canada trough, northern Canada ridging & less prominent north central Pacific trough this year vs. 2015.




These small but yet big atmospheric systems and positions meant a HUUUGGGGEEEE difference in the flow of the flow of the pattern. It was and still is a progressive fast flowing fluid pattern. Even with teh EPO block and Positive PNA (West Coast Ridge) we had nothing to slow it down on the this side in teh Hotlantic. The blocking advertised for this period just went poof and wout it and the position of the Pacific systems we were not in a good flow or position. History loves to repeat itself but never exactly the same way. So with that said we  learn from this in this wx community and move on.

I’m going to respectfully push back on this a bit, mugsy. First and foremost, I don’t think it’s fair to say that the blocking didn’t show up. Your height anomaly map clearly shows a reversal of the mean H5 height anomaly structure in the Atlantic domain. The difference is that it has been displaced further south versus ’15, which had no blocking whatsoever in the Atlantic domain. Additionally, my forecast in the Pacific explicitly was based on the idea that although we would have the time-mean ridge axis set up along or just off the West Coast, we would continually have shortwaves fighting their way through that mean ridge which would act similarly to a split flow, as we’d have waves fighting through that ridge (which we did) in addition to true Arctic waves diving in from the north (which we’ve also had), as has been highlighted multiple times in posts outlining all of the various pieces of energy regularly located over the CONUS throughout this month. That’s what had me so bullish on storm threats, because I was counting on there being a lot of potential interactions between waves as they (theoretically) would consolidate within the mean long-wave trough over the eastern CONUS. All of which, again, I highlighted in my video discussions and write-ups. So, from a synoptic standpoint, I think the evolution that I projected for January could not have been any better. It just comes down to the fact that it essentially was too much of a good thing by having so many potential players continually on the field and bumping elbows instead of having enough space to dance.

Fair intellectual points made and this is not at you or anyone here just sharing his point of view which I find interesting. The one glaring aspect I guess after reviewing these maps is the placement of our Aleutians Trough and where it displaced the Ridge out west. Do not take this as a push back but just an observation and an opportunity to investigate and learn as to the what to the why. In 2015 we had a Scan block as well.
Thanks for the response.

Maybe “push back on” wasn’t the best phrase for me to use lol “counter” would have probably been better, as maybe the tone of my previous response came across too stern. No hard feelings, brother, it’s a healthy discussion! I just wanted to illuminate the fact that the above maps match exactly the evolution that I had envisioned in my mind. But maybe I didn’t do enough to properly demonstrate that, which is a totally fair critique. No hard feelings, mugsy we’re all in it for the love of the game, and the thrill of the chase!

Us and the snow both pulled into Rocky Mount NC early. 30* light snow sticking to cold surfaces immediately.

It’s been snowing moderately down here for the past 2 hours, closing in on an inch on the grass and cold surfaces and most roads are coated.

Everyone down here is in a straight panic. Live news coverage all night, stores closing, people calling out of work. I think we might get to that 3-4” inch mark here tonight. News reports warning people they might want to wait a few days (yes, DAYS! ) before hitting the roads again. You can get an idea of how the stickage and snowfall rate is going down here in Dixie. Or it might just look like a blurry swirl to you all. Not sure. Either way, 27* and snowing moderately in northeast North Carolina.

Hey, I guess tonight I’m NENCsnowman. Ha ha!

Be safe SENJ and enjoy the absolute beauty of nature.

14* here and brrrr out!!

@ Rb my man great discussion and look fwd to more. Absolute truth you nailed what was to come. Fast flow and a few tweaks to the details would have done wonders. I always say we are a hair away from a NESIS most of the time.