January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

0z NAM is somewhat of an improvement. Definitely better along the NJ coast with lots of 4+" totals. But not a home-run. Still showing 1-2" totals N and W.

NAM still adjusting, but positive signs that run with a stronger and more consolidated shortwave tracking further west. 3k NAM looks pretty good as well

NAM close up.

The theme so far is a slower deeper trough, vort which will allow the transport of heavier snows and the surface isn't there yet showing this.

Sanchize06 wrote:NAM still adjusting, but positive signs that run with a stronger and more consolidated shortwave tracking further west. 3k NAM looks pretty good as well

Yeah from a "trend" perspective definitely a step in the right direction. Not a huge change in impact (although a clear improvement at the shore), but a move closer to what we'd want.

QPF on HRRR remember 15:1 ratios likely NNJ, NYC Metro, LHV

I think widespread 3-5" with local 6" amounts. Would have been a lot more with a slower system that's for sure.

billg315 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:NAM still adjusting, but positive signs that run with a stronger and more consolidated shortwave tracking further west. 3k NAM looks pretty good as well

Yeah from a "trend" perspective definitely a step in the right direction. Not a huge change in impact (although a clear improvement at the shore), but a move closer to what we'd want.

Yeah i expected a little better out of that run, but i'll take it. The NAM likes to surprise everyone at 6z when no one's watching lol

RGEM up next, it's taken a few steps back the past few runs so we'll see if we get back to something similar to last night's 0z run

I like when the NAM starts trending in a good direction 24-36 hours out because it usually doesn't correct completely until about 12-24 hours out. lol

billg315 wrote:I like when the NAM starts trending in a good direction 24-36 hours out because it usually doesn't correct completely until about 12-24 hours out. lol

You know it, I know it, we all know it. Why can't we get the NAM to know it?

Self recognition is the first step to real and meaningful change!

Nick Gregory going with 3-5 for NYC

RGEM pretty weak, general 2-3/2-4"

HRRR frontgenesis map would make many happy here with thumping of snow.

Sanchize06 wrote:RGEM pretty weak, general 2-3/2-4"

I don't understand why so meh. Looking at H5 one would expect a little more.

hyde345 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:RGEM pretty weak, general 2-3/2-4"

I don't understand why so meh. Looking at H5 one would expect a little more.

Yeah there were some positives, there was more spacing between storms allowing for some higher heights along the coast, but kind of cancelled out I suppose with a weaker and less consolidated shortwave. I still think we see more amped solutions in the next 24 hours

GFS a bit more amped and energy held back, this should be a pretty good run here, better than 18z

GFS is a hit, solid run

GEFS west again.

12z



18z



0z

Looks like I may got a coating maybe up to an inch of snow here in Albany. Of course, if the models during the day tomorrow make a drastic 150 mile shift NW, then that would be something.

Anyway, I could actually see amounts close to 6" in eastern LI.

6Z GFS ticks west

6z Euro ticks west as well. 3-6" starting to look good for most, with those 5-6" amounts in Eastern NJ, NYC, LI

The 06Z GFS is holding energy further west from primary low. There is a transfer and consolidation process occurring but it is later than previously modelled and that tugs things west a bit. That is what I am interested in today is how much energy is being held back and much does the consolidation process enhance it.

06Z Euro is very similar to GFS it just places the main low energy a few miles east. Very similar looks at this range and I think consensus is forming.

Looks like we’re landing on 2-4” west of NYC and 3-5” for NYC and east. 1-3” N&W of NYC.

Snow will start between 2-3am Friday and come to an end between 2-3pm Friday. Possibly even earlier. Heaviest snow looks to be around 6-8am. A nice little storm!

Not to nit pick, but why a WWA and not a WSW for at least Suffolk County?

dsix85 wrote:Not to nit pick, but why a WWA and not a WSW for at least Suffolk County?

I think the NWS will wait for the 12z runs before making any updates. As per the 6z runs, even NYC is on the fence for a WSW. Hoping for another couple of ticks westward today.