January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
0z NAM is somewhat of an improvement. Definitely better along the NJ coast with lots of 4+" totals. But not a home-run. Still showing 1-2" totals N and W.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
NAM still adjusting, but positive signs that run with a stronger and more consolidated shortwave tracking further west. 3k NAM looks pretty good as well
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
The theme so far is a slower deeper trough, vort which will allow the transport of heavier snows and the surface isn't there yet showing this.
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
Sanchize06 wrote:NAM still adjusting, but positive signs that run with a stronger and more consolidated shortwave tracking further west. 3k NAM looks pretty good as well
Yeah from a "trend" perspective definitely a step in the right direction. Not a huge change in impact (although a clear improvement at the shore), but a move closer to what we'd want.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
QPF on HRRR remember 15:1 ratios likely NNJ, NYC Metro, LHV


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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
billg315 wrote:Sanchize06 wrote:NAM still adjusting, but positive signs that run with a stronger and more consolidated shortwave tracking further west. 3k NAM looks pretty good as well
Yeah from a "trend" perspective definitely a step in the right direction. Not a huge change in impact (although a clear improvement at the shore), but a move closer to what we'd want.
Yeah i expected a little better out of that run, but i'll take it. The NAM likes to surprise everyone at 6z when no one's watching lol
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
RGEM up next, it's taken a few steps back the past few runs so we'll see if we get back to something similar to last night's 0z run
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
I like when the NAM starts trending in a good direction 24-36 hours out because it usually doesn't correct completely until about 12-24 hours out. lol
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
billg315 wrote:I like when the NAM starts trending in a good direction 24-36 hours out because it usually doesn't correct completely until about 12-24 hours out. lol
You know it, I know it, we all know it. Why can't we get the NAM to know it?
Self recognition is the first step to real and meaningful change!
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
Nick Gregory going with 3-5 for NYC
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
RGEM pretty weak, general 2-3/2-4"
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
HRRR frontgenesis map would make many happy here with thumping of snow.
Last edited by amugs on Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:30 pm; edited 1 time in total
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
Sanchize06 wrote:RGEM pretty weak, general 2-3/2-4"
I don't understand why so meh. Looking at H5 one would expect a little more.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
hyde345 wrote:Sanchize06 wrote:RGEM pretty weak, general 2-3/2-4"
I don't understand why so meh. Looking at H5 one would expect a little more.
Yeah there were some positives, there was more spacing between storms allowing for some higher heights along the coast, but kind of cancelled out I suppose with a weaker and less consolidated shortwave. I still think we see more amped solutions in the next 24 hours
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
GFS a bit more amped and energy held back, this should be a pretty good run here, better than 18z
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
GFS is a hit, solid run


Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
GEFS west again.
12z

18z

0z

12z

18z

0z

Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
Looks like I may got a coating maybe up to an inch of snow here in Albany. Of course, if the models during the day tomorrow make a drastic 150 mile shift NW, then that would be something.
Anyway, I could actually see amounts close to 6" in eastern LI.
Anyway, I could actually see amounts close to 6" in eastern LI.
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
6z Euro ticks west as well. 3-6" starting to look good for most, with those 5-6" amounts in Eastern NJ, NYC, LI
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
The 06Z GFS is holding energy further west from primary low. There is a transfer and consolidation process occurring but it is later than previously modelled and that tugs things west a bit. That is what I am interested in today is how much energy is being held back and much does the consolidation process enhance it.


heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
06Z Euro is very similar to GFS it just places the main low energy a few miles east. Very similar looks at this range and I think consensus is forming.
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
Looks like we’re landing on 2-4” west of NYC and 3-5” for NYC and east. 1-3” N&W of NYC.
Snow will start between 2-3am Friday and come to an end between 2-3pm Friday. Possibly even earlier. Heaviest snow looks to be around 6-8am. A nice little storm!
Snow will start between 2-3am Friday and come to an end between 2-3pm Friday. Possibly even earlier. Heaviest snow looks to be around 6-8am. A nice little storm!
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
Not to nit pick, but why a WWA and not a WSW for at least Suffolk County?
dsix85- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
I think the NWS will wait for the 12z runs before making any updates. As per the 6z runs, even NYC is on the fence for a WSW. Hoping for another couple of ticks westward today.dsix85 wrote:Not to nit pick, but why a WWA and not a WSW for at least Suffolk County?
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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