Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

by **billg315** Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:22 pm

0z NAM is somewhat of an improvement. Definitely better along the NJ coast with lots of 4+" totals. But not a home-run. Still showing 1-2" totals N and W.

by **Sanchize06** Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:23 pm

NAM still adjusting, but positive signs that run with a stronger and more consolidated shortwave tracking further west. 3k NAM looks pretty good as well

by **amugs** Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:24 pm

NAM close up.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 6 Fiypqk10

by **amugs** Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:26 pm

The theme so far is a slower deeper trough, vort which will allow the transport of heavier snows and the surface isn't there yet showing this.

by **billg315** Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:27 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:NAM still adjusting, but positive signs that run with a stronger and more consolidated shortwave tracking further west. 3k NAM looks pretty good as well

Yeah from a "trend" perspective definitely a step in the right direction. Not a huge change in impact (although a clear improvement at the shore), but a move closer to what we'd want.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:28 pm

QPF on HRRR remember 15:1 ratios likely NNJ, NYC Metro, LHV

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 6 6A633D34-E1AE-48FA-886C-B29E54C2E0E2.png.15d4313e782d4900ce0d677ef9a23f5f

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 6 6A633D34-E1AE-48FA-886C-B29E54C2E0E2.png.15d4313e782d4900ce0d677ef9a23f5f

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:28 pm

I think widespread 3-5" with local 6" amounts. Would have been a lot more with a slower system that's for sure.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 6 Nam3k11

by **Sanchize06** Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:33 pm

billg315 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:NAM still adjusting, but positive signs that run with a stronger and more consolidated shortwave tracking further west. 3k NAM looks pretty good as well

Yeah from a "trend" perspective definitely a step in the right direction. Not a huge change in impact (although a clear improvement at the shore), but a move closer to what we'd want.

Yeah i expected a little better out of that run, but i'll take it. The NAM likes to surprise everyone at 6z when no one's watching lol

by **Sanchize06** Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:35 pm

RGEM up next, it's taken a few steps back the past few runs so we'll see if we get back to something similar to last night's 0z run

by **billg315** Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:48 pm

I like when the NAM starts trending in a good direction 24-36 hours out because it usually doesn't correct completely until about 12-24 hours out. lol

by **essexcountypete** Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:53 pm

billg315 wrote:I like when the NAM starts trending in a good direction 24-36 hours out because it usually doesn't correct completely until about 12-24 hours out. lol

You know it, I know it, we all know it. Why can't we get the NAM to know it?

Self recognition is the first step to real and meaningful change!

by **Snow88** Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:09 pm

Nick Gregory going with 3-5 for NYC

by **Sanchize06** Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:11 pm

RGEM pretty weak, general 2-3/2-4"

by **amugs** Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:24 pm

HRRR frontgenesis map would make many happy here with thumping of snow.

by **hyde345** Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:30 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:RGEM pretty weak, general 2-3/2-4"

I don't understand why so meh. Looking at H5 one would expect a little more.

by **Sanchize06** Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:38 pm

hyde345 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:RGEM pretty weak, general 2-3/2-4"

I don't understand why so meh. Looking at H5 one would expect a little more.

Yeah there were some positives, there was more spacing between storms allowing for some higher heights along the coast, but kind of cancelled out I suppose with a weaker and less consolidated shortwave. I still think we see more amped solutions in the next 24 hours

by **Sanchize06** Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:46 pm

GFS a bit more amped and energy held back, this should be a pretty good run here, better than 18z

by **Sanchize06** Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:48 pm

GFS is a hit, solid run

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 6 Sn10_acc.us_ne

by **Sanchize06** Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:03 pm

GEFS west again.

12z

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 6 Gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_eus_9

18z

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0z

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 6 Gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_eus_7

by **Math23x7** Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:33 pm

Looks like I may got a coating maybe up to an inch of snow here in Albany. Of course, if the models during the day tomorrow make a drastic 150 mile shift NW, then that would be something.

Anyway, I could actually see amounts close to 6" in eastern LI.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 06, 2022 4:19 am

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 6 Snku_a10

6Z GFS ticks west

by **Sanchize06** Thu Jan 06, 2022 5:13 am

6z Euro ticks west as well. 3-6" starting to look good for most, with those 5-6" amounts in Eastern NJ, NYC, LI

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 06, 2022 5:13 am

The 06Z GFS is holding energy further west from primary low. There is a transfer and consolidation process occurring but it is later than previously modelled and that tugs things west a bit. That is what I am interested in today is how much energy is being held back and much does the consolidation process enhance it.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 6 Gfstra10

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 06, 2022 5:19 am

06Z Euro is very similar to GFS it just places the main low energy a few miles east. Very similar looks at this range and I think consensus is forming.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 06, 2022 5:35 am

Looks like we’re landing on 2-4” west of NYC and 3-5” for NYC and east. 1-3” N&W of NYC.

Snow will start between 2-3am Friday and come to an end between 2-3pm Friday. Possibly even earlier. Heaviest snow looks to be around 6-8am. A nice little storm!

by **dsix85** Thu Jan 06, 2022 5:45 am

Not to nit pick, but why a WWA and not a WSW for at least Suffolk County?

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 06, 2022 5:49 am

dsix85 wrote:Not to nit pick, but why a WWA and not a WSW for at least Suffolk County?

I think the NWS will wait for the 12z runs before making any updates. As per the 6z runs, even NYC is on the fence for a WSW. Hoping for another couple of ticks westward today.

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