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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:12 pm

Have no Fear Armando is here!! And yes he is a member here and a dam good met mind!
rom a kinematic standpoint, the axis of stretching deformation zone (circled) from both the GFS and HRRR, not only are similar in spatial placement, but argue for likely the mesoscale/quasi-stationary banding to extend a bit more back west kind of what the nam 3k had. Typically like being where we are in terms of geographical location regarding the 700mb level. Soundings from PHL onto NYC metro are actually quite beautiful with robust omega sloping into a well saturated DGZ that is relatively “low” (700-750mb). We’re likely looking at over 12:1 ratios averaged area wide. I’ll certainly take a 2-4”/3-6” event with this type of synoptic setup and the airmass established.

The black circled areas  yuo can se the heaviest snowfall rates. Further North like NNJ and LHV you will see 15:1 ratios
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 5 E42D145D-991C-4CB8-83B4-9F867883A71A.jpeg.ed22b5b1591370311f90a9e22af6c6bc

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RAP - said a hip, hop, hippy to the stop you don't stop the RAP!!

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 5 Received_292908592670244.jpeg.a6dbd1aed51b9b9531e2058b2f30d07e

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From Mike B

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 5 1646584115_FirstCall.png.5198634e988239069f9b68ff93238e4a

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by obsessedwithweather Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:14 pm

Hey All!

I'm a longtime lurker from Suffolk County.

I just moved to Knoxville TN. Can anyone give me an idea on accumulation for this area? Thanks so much!

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:17 pm

RGEM anyone - concurs with Armando. Purple lines say where teh heaviest axis of snow rates will be - out on ELI it will be heavier snow!!
This PVA is showing up nicely now. Let's hope it continues and deepens which as teh storms jog west it has the ability too.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 5 Rgem_temp_adv_fgen_850_neus_41.png.a7181e9d5bd3c82e9c9d8f89ba8eff67

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 5 Rgem_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_41.png.a6a03304275304670eb359b81394dee3

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:17 pm

18z GFS, EURO, EPS all west, good way to go into 0z's tonight.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:18 pm

This is still a big spread for 36 hours. But definitely came westward.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 5 Epssur10



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Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:20 pm

@obsessedwithweather wrote:Hey All!

I'm a longtime lurker from Suffolk County.

I just moved to Knoxville TN. Can anyone give me an idea on accumulation for this area? Thanks so much!

Where my son just moved down there and is going to UT for his masters!!
Knoxville :
4-6" looks to be a good call for you down there. Upper end 7 or 8", lower end 3".
ENJOY!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:22 pm

GEFS nice jump west at 18Z as well - need a couple of more west before we get the SE tick before the storm.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 5 18z.png.45254a13ff9d9dca9356f2a7cb95da5e

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:22 pm

@amugs wrote:
@obsessedwithweather wrote:Hey All!

I'm a longtime lurker from Suffolk County.

I just moved to Knoxville TN. Can anyone give me an idea on accumulation for this area? Thanks so much!

Where my son just moved down there and is going to UT for his masters!!
Knoxville :
4-6" looks to be a good call for you down there. Upper end 7 or 8", lower end 3".
ENJOY!

RGEM
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 5 Rgem_asnow_seus_42

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:41 pm

0z NAM incoming. This will tell me a lot I think.
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:43 pm

Can't ask for a better start to 0z's than the HRRR. West of 18z and slams the coast with 5-7". Solid run for most as well

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:45 pm

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 5 Sn10_acc.us_ne

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:52 pm


This model is broken. It is against the physical law of natural order for me to jackpot in back to back storms lol I’m lucky enough to jackpot once in the span of several seasons, and I just had my jackpot……just saying 😂

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:55 pm

Rb, see above. All of the models actually have the best forcing over SNJ so I'm not sure this isn't the "New Order." lol
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:56 pm

Is the convection off the coast as EPAWx Bobby Martrich pointed out this afternoon skewing the LP placement off the coast? Us this why we are seeing adjustments West? Could very well be...or not.
Black circled areas on both maps.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 5 Fiykpy10
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 5 Fiykpy11

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:00 pm

@rb924119 wrote:

This model is broken. It is against the physical law of natural order for me to jackpot in back to back storms lol I’m lucky enough to jackpot once in the span of several seasons, and I just had my jackpot……just saying 😂

It's your week lol

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:01 pm

NAM out to hr 24, would be shocked if this wasn't a better run compared to 18z

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:04 pm

@billg315 wrote:Rb, see above. All of the models actually have the best forcing over SNJ so I'm not sure this isn't the "New Order." lol

That’s the problem - they’re just models. And with 36 hours yet to go haha without having looked at anything, I don’t trust it lol

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:07 pm

At hour 30, NAM seems to be a bit west. maybe more consolidated off the coast.
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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:09 pm

Hour 33 Low forming inside the benchmark. Looks like a good run so far.
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:10 pm

NAM is west

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 5 Ref1km_ptype.conus

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:10 pm

That H5 energy seems west through hour 33 as well.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:12 pm

Snowfall rates!! Tick these another 25 miles NW for our LHV crew

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 5 1049260603_ScreenShot2022-01-05at8_48_29PM.png.44e845f811da5480efb856bbacddf179


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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:17 pm

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:22 pm

0z NAM is somewhat of an improvement. Definitely better along the NJ coast with lots of 4+" totals. But not a home-run. Still showing 1-2" totals N and W.
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:23 pm

NAM still adjusting, but positive signs that run with a stronger and more consolidated shortwave tracking further west. 3k NAM looks pretty good as well

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