January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

heehaw453 wrote:18Z Euro.
Whoever gets under this energy is getting 6" tomorrow night.  Could be right on the 95.

All the models seem to have this energy across SNJ presently (the Canadian a little further north). Would be ironic if they got the best action out of this again -- two times in one week.

billg315 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:18Z Euro.
Whoever gets under this energy is getting 6" tomorrow night.  Could be right on the 95.

All the models seem to have this energy across SNJ presently (the Canadian a little further north). Would be ironic if they got the best action out of this again -- two times in one week.

I was thinking the same billg when looking at this. Seems almost a carbon copy of what happened a few days ago.

Have no Fear Armando is here!! And yes he is a member here and a dam good met mind!
rom a kinematic standpoint, the axis of stretching deformation zone (circled) from both the GFS and HRRR, not only are similar in spatial placement, but argue for likely the mesoscale/quasi-stationary banding to extend a bit more back west kind of what the nam 3k had. Typically like being where we are in terms of geographical location regarding the 700mb level. Soundings from PHL onto NYC metro are actually quite beautiful with robust omega sloping into a well saturated DGZ that is relatively “low” (700-750mb). We’re likely looking at over 12:1 ratios averaged area wide. I’ll certainly take a 2-4”/3-6” event with this type of synoptic setup and the airmass established.

The black circled areas  yuo can se the heaviest snowfall rates. Further North like NNJ and LHV you will see 15:1 ratios




RAP - said a hip, hop, hippy to the stop you don't stop the RAP!!





From Mike B

Hey All!

I'm a longtime lurker from Suffolk County.

I just moved to Knoxville TN. Can anyone give me an idea on accumulation for this area? Thanks so much!

RGEM anyone - concurs with Armando. Purple lines say where teh heaviest axis of snow rates will be - out on ELI it will be heavier snow!!
This PVA is showing up nicely now. Let's hope it continues and deepens which as teh storms jog west it has the ability too.

18z GFS, EURO, EPS all west, good way to go into 0z's tonight.

This is still a big spread for 36 hours. But definitely came westward.

obsessedwithweather wrote:Hey All!

I'm a longtime lurker from Suffolk County.

I just moved to Knoxville TN. Can anyone give me an idea on accumulation for this area? Thanks so much!

Where my son just moved down there and is going to UT for his masters!!
Knoxville :
4-6" looks to be a good call for you down there. Upper end 7 or 8", lower end 3".
ENJOY!

GEFS nice jump west at 18Z as well - need a couple of more west before we get the SE tick before the storm.

amugs wrote:

obsessedwithweather wrote:Hey All!

I'm a longtime lurker from Suffolk County.

I just moved to Knoxville TN. Can anyone give me an idea on accumulation for this area? Thanks so much!

Where my son just moved down there and is going to UT for his masters!!
Knoxville :
4-6" looks to be a good call for you down there. Upper end 7 or 8", lower end 3".
ENJOY!

RGEM

0z NAM incoming. This will tell me a lot I think.

Can't ask for a better start to 0z's than the HRRR. West of 18z and slams the coast with 5-7". Solid run for most as well

Sanchize06 wrote:

This model is broken. It is against the physical law of natural order for me to jackpot in back to back storms lol I’m lucky enough to jackpot once in the span of several seasons, and I just had my jackpot……just saying

Rb, see above. All of the models actually have the best forcing over SNJ so I'm not sure this isn't the "New Order." lol

Is the convection off the coast as EPAWx Bobby Martrich pointed out this afternoon skewing the LP placement off the coast? Us this why we are seeing adjustments West? Could very well be...or not.
Black circled areas on both maps.

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

This model is broken. It is against the physical law of natural order for me to jackpot in back to back storms lol I’m lucky enough to jackpot once in the span of several seasons, and I just had my jackpot……just saying

It's your week lol

NAM out to hr 24, would be shocked if this wasn't a better run compared to 18z

billg315 wrote:Rb, see above. All of the models actually have the best forcing over SNJ so I'm not sure this isn't the "New Order." lol

That’s the problem - they’re just models. And with 36 hours yet to go haha without having looked at anything, I don’t trust it lol

At hour 30, NAM seems to be a bit west. maybe more consolidated off the coast.

Hour 33 Low forming inside the benchmark. Looks like a good run so far.

NAM is west

That H5 energy seems west through hour 33 as well.

Snowfall rates!! Tick these another 25 miles NW for our LHV crew

0z NAM is somewhat of an improvement. Definitely better along the NJ coast with lots of 4+" totals. But not a home-run. Still showing 1-2" totals N and W.

NAM still adjusting, but positive signs that run with a stronger and more consolidated shortwave tracking further west. 3k NAM looks pretty good as well