January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
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45 posters
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billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Join date : 2015-01-24
Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
billg315 wrote:
All the models seem to have this energy across SNJ presently (the Canadian a little further north). Would be ironic if they got the best action out of this again -- two times in one week.
I was thinking the same billg when looking at this. Seems almost a carbon copy of what happened a few days ago.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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billg315 likes this post
Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
Have no Fear Armando is here!! And yes he is a member here and a dam good met mind!
rom a kinematic standpoint, the axis of stretching deformation zone (circled) from both the GFS and HRRR, not only are similar in spatial placement, but argue for likely the mesoscale/quasi-stationary banding to extend a bit more back west kind of what the nam 3k had. Typically like being where we are in terms of geographical location regarding the 700mb level. Soundings from PHL onto NYC metro are actually quite beautiful with robust omega sloping into a well saturated DGZ that is relatively “low” (700-750mb). We’re likely looking at over 12:1 ratios averaged area wide. I’ll certainly take a 2-4”/3-6” event with this type of synoptic setup and the airmass established.
The black circled areas yuo can se the heaviest snowfall rates. Further North like NNJ and LHV you will see 15:1 ratios
RAP - said a hip, hop, hippy to the stop you don't stop the RAP!!
From Mike B
rom a kinematic standpoint, the axis of stretching deformation zone (circled) from both the GFS and HRRR, not only are similar in spatial placement, but argue for likely the mesoscale/quasi-stationary banding to extend a bit more back west kind of what the nam 3k had. Typically like being where we are in terms of geographical location regarding the 700mb level. Soundings from PHL onto NYC metro are actually quite beautiful with robust omega sloping into a well saturated DGZ that is relatively “low” (700-750mb). We’re likely looking at over 12:1 ratios averaged area wide. I’ll certainly take a 2-4”/3-6” event with this type of synoptic setup and the airmass established.
The black circled areas yuo can se the heaviest snowfall rates. Further North like NNJ and LHV you will see 15:1 ratios
RAP - said a hip, hop, hippy to the stop you don't stop the RAP!!
From Mike B
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Sanchize06, Irish and Bwtr like this post
Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
Hey All!
I'm a longtime lurker from Suffolk County.
I just moved to Knoxville TN. Can anyone give me an idea on accumulation for this area? Thanks so much!
I'm a longtime lurker from Suffolk County.
I just moved to Knoxville TN. Can anyone give me an idea on accumulation for this area? Thanks so much!
obsessedwithweather- Posts : 17
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Join date : 2016-09-16
Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
RGEM anyone - concurs with Armando. Purple lines say where teh heaviest axis of snow rates will be - out on ELI it will be heavier snow!!
This PVA is showing up nicely now. Let's hope it continues and deepens which as teh storms jog west it has the ability too.
This PVA is showing up nicely now. Let's hope it continues and deepens which as teh storms jog west it has the ability too.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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heehaw453 and Bwtr like this post
Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
18z GFS, EURO, EPS all west, good way to go into 0z's tonight.
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Sanchize06 likes this post
Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
obsessedwithweather wrote:Hey All!
I'm a longtime lurker from Suffolk County.
I just moved to Knoxville TN. Can anyone give me an idea on accumulation for this area? Thanks so much!
Where my son just moved down there and is going to UT for his masters!!
Knoxville :
4-6" looks to be a good call for you down there. Upper end 7 or 8", lower end 3".
ENJOY!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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weatherwatchermom and obsessedwithweather like this post
Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
GEFS nice jump west at 18Z as well - need a couple of more west before we get the SE tick before the storm.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Sanchize06 likes this post
Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
amugs wrote:obsessedwithweather wrote:Hey All!
I'm a longtime lurker from Suffolk County.
I just moved to Knoxville TN. Can anyone give me an idea on accumulation for this area? Thanks so much!
Where my son just moved down there and is going to UT for his masters!!
Knoxville :
4-6" looks to be a good call for you down there. Upper end 7 or 8", lower end 3".
ENJOY!
RGEM
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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obsessedwithweather likes this post
Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
0z NAM incoming. This will tell me a lot I think.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
Can't ask for a better start to 0z's than the HRRR. West of 18z and slams the coast with 5-7". Solid run for most as well
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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weatherwatchermom and billg315 like this post
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
Sanchize06 wrote:
This model is broken. It is against the physical law of natural order for me to jackpot in back to back storms lol I’m lucky enough to jackpot once in the span of several seasons, and I just had my jackpot……just saying
rb924119- Meteorologist
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sroc4, amugs, Sanchize06, weatherwatchermom and Bwtr like this post
Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
Rb, see above. All of the models actually have the best forcing over SNJ so I'm not sure this isn't the "New Order." lol
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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rb924119 likes this post
Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
rb924119 wrote:Sanchize06 wrote:
This model is broken. It is against the physical law of natural order for me to jackpot in back to back storms lol I’m lucky enough to jackpot once in the span of several seasons, and I just had my jackpot……just saying
It's your week lol
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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rb924119 likes this post
Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
NAM out to hr 24, would be shocked if this wasn't a better run compared to 18z
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
billg315 wrote:Rb, see above. All of the models actually have the best forcing over SNJ so I'm not sure this isn't the "New Order." lol
That’s the problem - they’re just models. And with 36 hours yet to go haha without having looked at anything, I don’t trust it lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
At hour 30, NAM seems to be a bit west. maybe more consolidated off the coast.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
Hour 33 Low forming inside the benchmark. Looks like a good run so far.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
NAM is west
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
That H5 energy seems west through hour 33 as well.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
Snowfall rates!! Tick these another 25 miles NW for our LHV crew
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
0z NAM is somewhat of an improvement. Definitely better along the NJ coast with lots of 4+" totals. But not a home-run. Still showing 1-2" totals N and W.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
NAM still adjusting, but positive signs that run with a stronger and more consolidated shortwave tracking further west. 3k NAM looks pretty good as well
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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