Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:25 pm

heehaw453 wrote:EPS has a lot of bombs. Like an unbelievable amount of bombs at D5+. It's getting phased early it would seem.

By my eye it’s over Western Virginia and West Virginia in the ensemble mean. I expect this to shift further south/west as lead time decreases using my same ideas, and still like the Central Mid-Atlantic as the sweet spot. This is gonna be fun, as the January 2016 analog may be a good one.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:26 pm

rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
Calm down everyone EPS is east.

Not really lol

MEh. I still think this came too far west and will correct eastward in time. Models have often under modeled the strength of the NAO block. In the end I think this beast goes just inside the BM.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:30 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
Calm down everyone EPS is east.

Not really lol

MEh. I still think this came too far west and will correct eastward in time. Models have often under modeled the strength of the NAO block. In the end I think this beast goes just inside the BM.

I agree. As I have said, I think that this was an over-correction. But I think we see an overall shift southward of the evolution, not necessarily just eastward.

by **hyde345** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:31 pm

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:EPS has a lot of bombs. Like an unbelievable amount of bombs at D5+. It's getting phased early it would seem.

By my eye it’s over Western Virginia and West Virginia in the ensemble mean. I expect this to shift further south/west as lead time decreases using my same ideas, and still like the Central Mid-Atlantic as the sweet spot. This is gonna be fun, as the January 2016 analog may be a good one.

I hope not. I got 3 flakes from that 2016 storm.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:32 pm

Something I just noticed and don't really like - at least on the GFS - is how there is a High Pressure east of Maine. Between that and the east-based NAO block I fear that would give credence to a storm tracking up the coast or even slightly inland. Hmmm, will need to keep an eye on that feature.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:36 pm

12z NAVY

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 3 Navgem-mslp-pcpn-neus-fh114-150-thumb-gif-af378124d2e276345fbf8242d6e7757e

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:39 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Something I just noticed and don't really like - at least on the GFS - is how there is a High Pressure east of Maine. Between that and the east-based NAO block I fear that would give credence to a storm tracking up the coast or even slightly inland. Hmmm, will need to keep an eye on that feature.

Without the secondary phase, this is a valid concern if these northern tracks are legitimate. But if we get that secondary phase, then I wouldn’t worry too much about it. That secondary phase would be your injection of fresh cold air, as that is a direct Arctic discharge into the backside of our storm. Baby go boom lol

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:40 pm

rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
Calm down everyone EPS is east.

Not really lol

MEh. I still think this came too far west and will correct eastward in time. Models have often under modeled the strength of the NAO block. In the end I think this beast goes just inside the BM.

I agree. As I have said, I think that this was an over-correction. But I think we see an overall shift southward of the evolution, not necessarily just eastward.

RB who knows at this point. We’re in a pattern that’s very convoluted with a lot of moving parts. Our line of thinking may blow up in our face and the storm heads for Philly ala March of 93. That’s why I love this hobby. Man it’s going to be a long sleepless week ahead.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:52 pm

Just read this on Joe Bastardi’s blog:

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 3 45afb010

Seems I’m not the only one drawing this comparison. His son is in my camp, Joe thinks this is more like March ‘94. Not familiar with March ‘94, so maybe others can comment.

by **essexcountypete** Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:03 pm

rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:We’re still 6 days from the event which is an eternity for tracking a monster like this. My advice to everyone is to follow the ensembles for now. There’s going to be a lot of run to run variability with the OP’s which I fear will cause a lot of undue stress.

We all know that this a great, logical, clear-minded, and well thought out post. But what fun would there be in that????

So what you're saying is that it's perfectly normal that I've already refreshed this topic a dozen times today?

Some of us just like that feeling of the windshield wiper whacking us on the way by. It reminds us we're alive and tracking.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:14 pm

essexcountypete wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:We’re still 6 days from the event which is an eternity for tracking a monster like this. My advice to everyone is to follow the ensembles for now. There’s going to be a lot of run to run variability with the OP’s which I fear will cause a lot of undue stress.

We all know that this a great, logical, clear-minded, and well thought out post. But what fun would there be in that????

So what you're saying is that it's perfectly normal that I've already refreshed this topic a dozen times today?

Some of us just like that feeling of the windshield wiper whacking us on the way by. It reminds us we're alive and tracking.

COMPLETELY normal. I can’t believe you’ve only done it a dozen times - I’m on about 40 lmaooo and, considering that this thread is only three pages long and already has 1240 views, I think it’s safe to assume that we aren’t alone hahaha

Your second comment is too funny ahaha funny because it’s so true.

by bobjohnsonforthehall Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:17 pm

essexcountypete wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:We’re still 6 days from the event which is an eternity for tracking a monster like this. My advice to everyone is to follow the ensembles for now. There’s going to be a lot of run to run variability with the OP’s which I fear will cause a lot of undue stress.

We all know that this a great, logical, clear-minded, and well thought out post. But what fun would there be in that????

So what you're saying is that it's perfectly normal that I've already refreshed this topic a dozen times today?

Some of us just like that feeling of the windshield wiper whacking us on the way by. It reminds us we're alive and tracking.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 3 85Eu

Ride that wiper. EEEYYYAAAHHHH

by **mikeypizano** Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:21 pm

OH WHAT THE HELL, LOCK IT IN AS IT IS!

by **Grselig** Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:30 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:We’re still 6 days from the event which is an eternity for tracking a monster like this. My advice to everyone is to follow the ensembles for now. There’s going to be a lot of run to run variability with the OP’s which I fear will cause a lot of undue stress.

We all know that this a great, logical, clear-minded, and well thought out post. But what fun would there be in that????

So what you're saying is that it's perfectly normal that I've already refreshed this topic a dozen times today?

Some of us just like that feeling of the windshield wiper whacking us on the way by. It reminds us we're alive and tracking.

Ride that wiper. EEEYYYAAAHHHH

Its a disease! The only cure is more snow!

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:47 pm

Can’t wait till the Nam is in range. We should see some doozy runs

by **heehaw453** Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:07 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Something I just noticed and don't really like - at least on the GFS - is how there is a High Pressure east of Maine. Between that and the east-based NAO block I fear that would give credence to a storm tracking up the coast or even slightly inland. Hmmm, will need to keep an eye on that feature.

Without the secondary phase, this is a valid concern if these northern tracks are legitimate. But if we get that secondary phase, then I wouldn’t worry too much about it. That secondary phase would be your injection of fresh cold air, as that is a direct Arctic discharge into the backside of our storm. Baby go boom lol

Yeah pinwheeled right off the TPV lobe over Hudson Bay.

by **Irish** Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:14 pm

TWC went from literally no snow for my area next week, to now showing 6-12 inches Sunday night into Monday. The next several days are gonna be fun tracking things!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:18 pm

Grselig wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:We’re still 6 days from the event which is an eternity for tracking a monster like this. My advice to everyone is to follow the ensembles for now. There’s going to be a lot of run to run variability with the OP’s which I fear will cause a lot of undue stress.

We all know that this a great, logical, clear-minded, and well thought out post. But what fun would there be in that????

So what you're saying is that it's perfectly normal that I've already refreshed this topic a dozen times today?

Some of us just like that feeling of the windshield wiper whacking us on the way by. It reminds us we're alive and tracking.

Ride that wiper. EEEYYYAAAHHHH

Its a disease! The only cure is more snow!

Except it's not even a cure, it's just a drug to treat the symptoms. But several days after the storm you need more, or all the symptoms return, whining, depression, insomnia etc.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:47 pm

Rb March 94
March 2-3 was an good storm to the NYC Metro and coastal regions. Move this 100 miles SE and its a banger, it was March this is the heart of Jan.

STORM DESCRIPTION
A powerful nor'easter brought two days of rain, sleet, snow, high winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion to New Jersey.

Synoptic Discussion
The storm system developed along the Front Range of the Rockies on February 27th. It sank southward into western Texas on February 28th, moved eastward to Louisiana on March 1st, and reached South Carolina on the 2nd. It then turned northeastward, strengthening rapidly as it reached the Delmarva peninsula early on the 3rd. The storm continued moving northeastward but only strengthened a little more, reaching Nova Scotia early on the 4th.

Local Discussion
Precipitation slowly overspread the state from south to north during the day on the 2nd, becoming heavy at times several hours after beginning. Across the south, precipitation that began in the form of snow changed to sleet and then rain by midday on the 2nd as warm air moved northward both at the surface and aloft. Further north, precipitation gradually mixed with and changed to sleet and rain across central New Jersey during the night of the 2nd. Across northern New Jersey, precipitation mixed with sleet, but generally remained in frozen form for the duration of the storm. Precipitation intensity decreased significantly overnight on the 2nd and continued at a very light rate for most of the 3rd. The rain and drizzle across southern and central New Jersey and the sleet and drizzle across northern New Jersey briefly mixed with snow before ending during the evening of the 3rd as cold air wrapped back across the state in the storm's wake. Accumulations were highest across the northwest, where they averaged from 8 to 16 inches. Across northeastern and central New Jersey, accumulations ranged from 5 to 8 inches, while across east-central and southern New Jersey, accumulations were mainly on the order of a coating to 4 inches. The storm also caused wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, especially along the coast, which in turn resulted in significant beach erosion and mostly minor coastal flooding.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 3 Njsnow10

by **amugs** Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:54 pm

What a jump eh? The players are on the field and do not flip if it shows a less or undesirable solution IMBY.
There is a quantum amout of time, 12 more cycle model runs and we see with these bigger storms that they are here, gone tomorrow, correct left, right and settle in. The energy is not in well samples areas and won't be until Thursday so make the popcorn and hang tight.

NAM just brought Fridays storm closer to the coast and LI. Just saying....

by **amugs** Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:58 pm

From a pro Met

I see a couple of scenarios that work for us.

1) We get a powerful, phased shortwave entering the US along the downstream side of the PNA ridge really far back west that amplifies and cuts itself off quickly, but while also having the ocean storm more phased into the TPV, allowing a perfect combination of beastly shortwave and confluence. This would result in a blizzard on Sunday night into Monday.

2) We get a phased shortwave entering the US along the downstream side of the PNA ridge, but it's more progressive initially -- progressive and phased like the 12z NAVGEM. This way you still get downstream height rises but it does not cut itself off (or cuts off very late). This allows for a faster solution that coincides with when the TPV lobe is still in Southeast Canada. This would result in a blizzard on Sunday.

Perhaps scenario 2.5 like the UKMET, increased phasing with the ocean storm allows confluence to linger long enough for our storm to cut itself off but gain latitude a lot slower while it waits for a phase

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:05 pm

Thanks, mugs!

I expect 18z GFS to show a more amplified solution based on its presentation through 84. 18z Op run, so just have fun lol

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:15 pm

And it is. Drives the primary northward over D.C. Don’t panic, folks lol it’s an 18z GFS Op run. We are going to see a lot of model outputs between now and Sunday haha just enjoy the ride!

by **amugs** Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:10 pm

GEFS are beautiful IMO

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 3 3C1E21B4-FEE8-4F9F-BF61-279D3F3C9B9D.png.c11d442eb6c542156baf6689322d491e

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 3 3C1E21B4-FEE8-4F9F-BF61-279D3F3C9B9D.png.c11d442eb6c542156baf6689322d491e

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:53 pm

I've seen huge jumps west today the word Madonne from Frank and rb..can I get a little excited? I remember January 2016 well. Got obliterated like 28 inches!!

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:55 pm

amugs wrote:GEFS are beautiful IMO

Compared to less than a day ago when models showed a storm completely missing?

by **Irish** Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:37 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I've seen huge jumps west today the word Madonne from Frank and rb..can I get a little excited? I remember January 2016 well. Got obliterated like 28 inches!!

No, do your best to hold back on any real true excitement because the letdown is just awful. We wait and anticipation builds...

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