Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:55 pm

amugs wrote:GEFS are beautiful IMO

Compared to less than a day ago when models showed a storm completely missing?

by **Irish** Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:37 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I've seen huge jumps west today the word Madonne from Frank and rb..can I get a little excited? I remember January 2016 well. Got obliterated like 28 inches!!

No, do your best to hold back on any real true excitement because the letdown is just awful. We wait and anticipation builds...

by **Irish** Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:39 pm

I know we're a ways off, just like looking at TWC's changes. Now they have a warmer solution with rain mixing in and dropped from 6-12 accumulations to 5-8.

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:54 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Grselig wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:We’re still 6 days from the event which is an eternity for tracking a monster like this. My advice to everyone is to follow the ensembles for now. There’s going to be a lot of run to run variability with the OP’s which I fear will cause a lot of undue stress.

We all know that this a great, logical, clear-minded, and well thought out post. But what fun would there be in that????

So what you're saying is that it's perfectly normal that I've already refreshed this topic a dozen times today?

Some of us just like that feeling of the windshield wiper whacking us on the way by. It reminds us we're alive and tracking.

Ride that wiper. EEEYYYAAAHHHH

Its a disease! The only cure is more snow!

Except it's not even a cure, it's just a drug to treat the symptoms. But several days after the storm you need more, or all the symptoms return, whining, depression, insomnia etc.

CP, you are getting sucked into the vortex of model mayhem madness.It's only Tuesday night, fer cryin' out loud!!! This can go many ways before we really get a clear picture on Saturday.

by hurrysundown23 Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:09 pm

THIS JUST NOW NWS I IN SAYREVILLE

Sun 16 | Night
27°
82%
NE 11 mph
Snow likely. Low 27F. Winds NE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 8 to 12 inches.

Mon 17 | Day
38°
79%
NW 12 mph
Rain and snow in the morning. A few snow showers in the afternoon - otherwise, mostly cloudy. High 38F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precip 80%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:12 pm

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Grselig wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:We’re still 6 days from the event which is an eternity for tracking a monster like this. My advice to everyone is to follow the ensembles for now. There’s going to be a lot of run to run variability with the OP’s which I fear will cause a lot of undue stress.

We all know that this a great, logical, clear-minded, and well thought out post. But what fun would there be in that????

So what you're saying is that it's perfectly normal that I've already refreshed this topic a dozen times today?

Some of us just like that feeling of the windshield wiper whacking us on the way by. It reminds us we're alive and tracking.

Ride that wiper. EEEYYYAAAHHHH

Its a disease! The only cure is more snow!

Except it's not even a cure, it's just a drug to treat the symptoms. But several days after the storm you need more, or all the symptoms return, whining, depression, insomnia etc.

CP, you are getting sucked into the vortex of model mayhem madness.It's only Tuesday night, fer cryin' out loud!!! This can go many ways before we really get a clear picture on Saturday.

Thanks Doc, you're always there as the voice of reason.

I may consider taking tomorrow off from model watching. Thursday through Monday may be very taxing.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:12 pm

EPS a bit SE - good location

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 4 61de28fa62626.png.1a36f6c9e14b31732daed28da4134128

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:29 pm

Irish wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I've seen huge jumps west today the word Madonne from Frank and rb..can I get a little excited? I remember January 2016 well. Got obliterated like 28 inches!!

No, do your best to hold back on any real true excitement because the letdown is just awful. We wait and anticipation builds...

I'm aware was just hoping for a yes from the heads. I'm taking a much different approach to this this year. Weather will be weather and if it happens it happens if not there s plenty of unrelated stuff to be excited and greatful for. Why the letdown isn't as bad for me as it was last year. Hence why you haven't seen me post as much. My life has changed drastically since June and for the better. Hope your well.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:35 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Irish wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I've seen huge jumps west today the word Madonne from Frank and rb..can I get a little excited? I remember January 2016 well. Got obliterated like 28 inches!!

No, do your best to hold back on any real true excitement because the letdown is just awful. We wait and anticipation builds...
I'm aware was just hoping for a yes from the heads. I'm taking a much different approach to this this year. Weather will be weather and if it happens it happens if not there s plenty of unrelated stuff to be excited and greatful for. Why the letdown isn't as bad for me as it was last year. Hence why you haven't seen me post as much. My life has changed drastically since June and for the better. Hope your well.

Who are you trying to kid, Jman? You’re already sucked in and fully emotionally invested just like the rest of us are lol!

if you had to ask if you can get excited, just the mere thought already means it’s too late hahaha

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:56 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Irish wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I've seen huge jumps west today the word Madonne from Frank and rb..can I get a little excited? I remember January 2016 well. Got obliterated like 28 inches!!

No, do your best to hold back on any real true excitement because the letdown is just awful. We wait and anticipation builds...
I'm aware was just hoping for a yes from the heads. I'm taking a much different approach to this this year. Weather will be weather and if it happens it happens if not there s plenty of unrelated stuff to be excited and greatful for. Why the letdown isn't as bad for me as it was last year. Hence why you haven't seen me post as much. My life has changed drastically since June and for the better. Hope your well.

Who are you trying to kid, Jman? You’re already sucked in and fully emotionally invested just like the rest of us are if you had to ask if you can get excited, just the mere thought already means it’s too late hahaha

DOH!! LOL yup too late, but I am not going to let model waffling over next 4 days upset me, last time it was not looking good for a while then we ended up with a nice 6.8 inches (or in my measurement 3 lol). Was at the parents in CT over weekend they had 10.5!! Of course I am a bit excited especially to hear everyone else being somewhat positive, but I guess I meant how much is this a viable solution versus a total miss OTS? I will not wish for a high wind event that ends with heavy rain too, oh boy CP will come knocking down my door with a pitchfork. Again I offer my services as a licensed clinician (for real, I am) to anyone who is gonna lose it just PM me. No charge for us nutcases (joking).

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:45 pm

I believe that it’s plausible, but not likely. I think the runs today were an over correction, as I’ve stated multiple times, and have also mentioned that I believe this on account of my previous analysis. Personally, I like more or less fringe effects for a vast majority of our forum, save for me and the handful of other southern NJ posters, as I think this will end up primarily targeting areas like Richmond, Baltimore, and D.C. (Central Mid-Atlantic, maybe as far north as Philly). However, that is just my opinion, and ALL solutions remain in play at this point. It is just my own opinion that a solution OTS or an inland runner are not likely, but they are still viable right now.

by bobjohnsonforthehall Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:32 pm

Icon says hello

by **Irish** Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:46 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Icon says hello

I'm sure and TWC is back to predicting 8-12+.

A-waffling we shall go...

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:07 pm

Irish wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Icon says hello

I'm sure and TWC is back to predicting 8-12+.

A-waffling we shall go...

Their output is based on the GFS Op runs haha your point is no less valid though lmao

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:08 pm

Speaking of the GFS, it should should a solution similar to 12z run from earlier. More suppressed height field over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic versus 18z.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:15 pm

Ugly GFS run.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:15 pm

So, I’ve been wrong before lol

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:19 pm

Our southern vort closed off over Nebraska this run.

I mean, that’s pretty crazy. Very early.

by **mmanisca** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:23 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Our southern vort closed off over Nebraska this run.

I mean, that’s pretty crazy. Very early.

This keeps up and it will be headed toward the Great Lakes!

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:23 pm

I don’t like this

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 4 90bdc210

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:26 pm

They actually sent recon flights in out west into our energy of interest tonight, and I think will be doing so throughout the week to get better sampling. Pretty cool!

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:31 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I don’t like this

Agree - it’s not “ideal”, but it can work if we get that secondary vort to dive in the back side of our storm. The reason I say that is because if you get the phase, then you open up the height field over top of our developing storm as the western ridge breaks anticyclonically eastward, and heights respond ahead of our storm, bridging the gap between local height maxima. If you increase the heights over too, then by default you also increase the lower level pressures, especially relative to our storm. So, your ageostrophic flow would be driving in very cold air from Canada. You dynamically lift that and you’re largely ok. If we DON’T get the phase, though, we have to rely on the exiting storm from the 13th to remain stronger longer and keep the eastern flank of the height field suppressed.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:31 pm

I would pay good money to be part of this recon flight, while eating a meatball sub and whispering to the clouds “you know what to do”

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:34 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I don’t like this

Agree - it’s not “ideal”, but it can work if we get that secondary vort to dive in the back side of our storm. The reason I say that is because if you get the phase, then you open up the height field over top of our developing storm as the western ridge breaks anticyclonically eastward, and heights respond ahead of our storm, bridging the gap between local height maxima. If you increase the heights over too, then by default you also increase the lower level pressures, especially relative to our storm. So, your ageostrophic flow would be driving in very cold air from Canada. You dynamically lift that and you’re largely ok. If we DON’T get the phase, though, we have to rely on the exiting storm from the 13th to remain stronger longer and keep the eastern flank of the height field suppressed.

Agree. But I don’t see the phase panning out. The southern vort was already a lot slower this run and we still didn’t see a phase (but it was closer than past runs). Still long way to go with this one.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:37 pm

GEFS are SE of OP by what appears like a wide margin

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by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:40 pm

The fact that the OP is the most NW in the whole ensemble suite is a BIG red flag. I’m not sure if it’s a resolution thing or what, but across all models the OPs and Ensembles disagree.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:41 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GEFS are SE of OP by what appears like a wide margin

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 4 61de5b88ce097-thumb-png-b630002a7f63777a1bf77a4438ab3031

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