Long Range Discussion 23.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Too many variables at play here which has been the general theme this winter. Since we don’t have a west based block, every storm threat is a thread the needle event. While I want a blockbuster storm more then anyone, I refuse to get pulled in only to get hood winked in the end. I’ll watch the model runs in the coming days, but I won’t bite till Wednesday if the threat is still there.heehaw453 wrote:The interaction of this developing storm on 1/29 could be highly influenced by the TPV n/s energy. These are details that are just too far out to have any analysis on. We just have to stay tuned and understand this may have no sig impact on our area...
Couple of things I have growing confidence in for 1/29 timeframe.
A major storm developing somewhere off the east coast
A slow moving storm
Good western ridge/east based blocking
Absolutely no confidence ATTM
The interaction of the n/s tpv on the developing storm
The placement of the storm w.r.t. to EC
Redevelopment of the storm
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
LOL you guys see the GFS I think it was last night? Nukes Eastern CT to cape with Franzroidzilla (yes a new term for well above 36 lol) 36-40+ inches wouldn't that be a smack in the head if that happened. It won't and my guess is it misses entirely but we will see it is 8 days out, not fantasy land but still as stated above way to far out to put any stance in it.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Ill take the 06z GFS screws southern NE rocks a strip from NYC and nearly due north up to canada.
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Not great trends (although to be fair it’s been all over the place so not fair to use that word) today for a potentially larger winter storm next weekend. But we know what to look for - ANY semblance of help from the North Atlantic in the form of transient ridging or a 50/50 low, or a trend away from a short wave rolling into the PAC NW flattening the PNA ridge spike, among others. We know there will likely be a storm around and we know frequently models can “lose” a storm in the transition from long to mid-range only to bring it back. Ensembles still have the signal and despite our less than ideal luck there’s still time for this one to change. The items I mentioned above really are necessary for a major or historic storm - but I think there’s room for at least a significant event even without those. Just mid-afternoon thoughts. We’ll see!
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
MattyICE wrote:Not great trends (although to be fair it’s been all over the place so not fair to use that word) today for a potentially larger winter storm next weekend. But we know what to look for - ANY semblance of help from the North Atlantic in the form of transient ridging or a 50/50 low, or a trend away from a short wave rolling into the PAC NW flattening the PNA ridge spike, among others. We know there will likely be a storm around and we know frequently models can “lose” a storm in the transition from long to mid-range only to bring it back. Ensembles still have the signal and despite our less than ideal luck there’s still time for this one to change. The items I mentioned above really are necessary for a major or historic storm - but I think there’s room for at least a significant event even without those. Just mid-afternoon thoughts. We’ll see!
Good points. IMO there will be a major storm in the Atlantic. Whether our area is affected is highly questionable and most likely will depend on wave spacing and the western ridge heights and placement. If wave is poorly spaced or ridge is not robust it’ll develop late and this becomes a Canadian maritime blizzard.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
These models are all over the place folks and will be for a few days. 18Z GFS would be a paralyzing blizzard up the eastern seaboard. I don't need surface maps with something like this. The ridge was robust and popped around Idaho and the wave spacing was excellent. Next run shows something different no doubt, but make no mistake there is potential and these op runs will drive us nuts. It's just the nature of this hobby.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
heehaw453 wrote:These models are all over the place folks and will be for a few days. 18Z GFS would be a paralyzing blizzard up the eastern seaboard. I don't need surface maps with something like this. The ridge was robust and popped around Idaho and the wave spacing was excellent. Next run shows something different no doubt, but make no mistake there is potential and these op runs will drive us nuts. It's just the nature of this hobby.
Is this still around the 30th if it were to effect us?
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
lglickman1 wrote:heehaw453 wrote:These models are all over the place folks and will be for a few days. 18Z GFS would be a paralyzing blizzard up the eastern seaboard. I don't need surface maps with something like this. The ridge was robust and popped around Idaho and the wave spacing was excellent. Next run shows something different no doubt, but make no mistake there is potential and these op runs will drive us nuts. It's just the nature of this hobby.
Is this still around the 30th if it were to effect us?
It's hard to say. I would expect if this was going to occur we'd see some effects on 29th, but this is not a progressive system by any stretch of the imagination so effects would last for at least 24 hrs IMO. Again BIG IF and I am going with the assumption that we get nothing, nonetheless I enjoy the evolution of such synoptic events.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Let's not lose sight of Tuesday into Wednesday NAM has been harping on this since OZ last night.
And we can have a 1 two punch next weekend Friday into Saturday and then again Monday/Tuesday.
And we can have a 1 two punch next weekend Friday into Saturday and then again Monday/Tuesday.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
amugs wrote:Let's not lose sight of Tuesday into Wednesday NAM has been harping on this since OZ last night.
And we can have a 1 two punch next weekend Friday into Saturday and then again Monday/Tuesday.
I think you are right in that it should be watched. But NAM is most aggressive with bringing up the s/s energy on Tuesday night. I'm skeptical for now.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
heehaw453 wrote:amugs wrote:Let's not lose sight of Tuesday into Wednesday NAM has been harping on this since OZ last night.
And we can have a 1 two punch next weekend Friday into Saturday and then again Monday/Tuesday.
I think you are right in that it should be watched. But NAM is most aggressive with bringing up the s/s energy on Tuesday night. I'm skeptical for now.
Absolutely and it ha sniffed out a few before the globals jump on. We'll see especially with how our storms have trended lately in the progressive flow.
I think you are right in that it should be watched. But NAM is most aggressive with bringing up the s/s energy on Tuesday night. I'm skeptical for now.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
The difference between an all out hit up the I95 and a near miss. Look at the ridging on the near miss and the direct hit. Notice the ridge in AZ how sharp it is and how much vorticity there is for the direct hit. That's everything because it gives the storm the necessary time to evolve and by the time the trough goes neutral around GA, it's ready for business. The 06Z is much less of a ridge and it's placed much further east. There is not the time for consolidation and hence it's not a direct hit. Also notice the flow is progressive in both cases until the amplification occurs so that means there is not time for messing around. Again there is time for just about anything at this range, but if we don't see a good base for which the storm can build on this will miss to our east and of that I have little doubt.
Direct hit
Near miss
Direct hit
Near miss
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
@heehaw..you showing your hand here you think this will
Miss East ?
Miss East ?
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
dsix85 wrote:@heehaw..you showing your hand here you think this will
Miss East ?
I believe the deck is stacked against a direct hit for those reasons. That doesn't mean some impacts cannot be realized, but I'm more talking a direct hit... It's most heavily weighted on the progressive flow as the storm approaches that has me thinking that way.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Is there anything in the next 2 weeks that seems to be a legit chance of something?
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Most interesting aspect of the 12Z GFS is the 500mb trough was not digging nearly as much. That allowed mid atlantic to get some snows and that actually maybe the way we get "something" out of this. Very low chances of any direct hit with this until I see models showing this develop much more quickly and more westward. Too progressive and will probably be a Canadian Maritimes blizzard.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
heehaw453 wrote:Most interesting aspect of the 12Z GFS is the 500mb trough was not digging nearly as much. That allowed mid atlantic to get some snows and that actually maybe the way we get "something" out of this. Very low chances of any direct hit with this until I see models showing this develop much more quickly and more westward. Too progressive and will probably be a Canadian Maritimes blizzard.
so disheartening..this whole winter...have the wonderful cold and can do nothing with it.. At least it is sunny out today...that was my glass half full comment..
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
I have been unimpressed with the performance of the Canadian models both meso and global for sometime. The global seems to latch on to an idea a few days after the GFS/Euro already dismiss it. Is this threat dead, certainly not, but I believe very unlikely we get a direct hit.
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