Long Range Discussion 23.0

heehaw453 wrote:The interaction of this developing storm on 1/29 could be highly influenced by the TPV n/s energy. These are details that are just too far out to have any analysis on.  We just have to stay tuned and understand this may have no sig impact on our area...

Couple of things I have growing confidence in for 1/29 timeframe.  
A major storm developing somewhere off the east coast
A slow moving storm
Good western ridge/east based blocking

Absolutely no confidence ATTM
The interaction of the n/s tpv on the developing storm
The placement of the storm w.r.t. to EC
Redevelopment of the storm

Too many variables at play here which has been the general theme this winter. Since we don’t have a west based block, every storm threat is a thread the needle event. While I want a blockbuster storm more then anyone, I refuse to get pulled in only to get hood winked in the end. I’ll watch the model runs in the coming days, but I won’t bite till Wednesday if the threat is still there.

LOL you guys see the GFS I think it was last night? Nukes Eastern CT to cape with Franzroidzilla (yes a new term for well above 36 lol) 36-40+ inches wouldn't that be a smack in the head if that happened. It won't and my guess is it misses entirely but we will see it is 8 days out, not fantasy land but still as stated above way to far out to put any stance in it.

Ill take the 06z GFS screws southern NE rocks a strip from NYC and nearly due north up to canada.

I'm trying to find a good analog for this 1/29 setup.  There are some similarities on January 2016 storm.  Basically the ridge/trough are similar, but of course there are differences which no two systems are the same.

Not great trends (although to be fair it’s been all over the place so not fair to use that word) today for a potentially larger winter storm next weekend. But we know what to look for - ANY semblance of help from the North Atlantic in the form of transient ridging or a 50/50 low, or a trend away from a short wave rolling into the PAC NW flattening the PNA ridge spike, among others. We know there will likely be a storm around and we know frequently models can “lose” a storm in the transition from long to mid-range only to bring it back. Ensembles still have the signal and despite our less than ideal luck there’s still time for this one to change. The items I mentioned above really are necessary for a major or historic storm - but I think there’s room for at least a significant event even without those. Just mid-afternoon thoughts. We’ll see!

MattyICE wrote:Not great trends (although to be fair it’s been all over the place so not fair to use that word) today for a potentially larger winter storm next weekend. But we know what to look for - ANY semblance of help from the North Atlantic in the form of transient ridging or a 50/50 low, or a trend away from a short wave rolling into the PAC NW flattening the PNA ridge spike, among others. We know there will likely be a storm around and we know frequently models can “lose” a storm in the transition from long to mid-range only to bring it back. Ensembles still have the signal and despite our less than ideal luck there’s still time for this one to change. The items I mentioned above really are necessary for a major or historic storm - but I think there’s room for at least a significant event even without those. Just mid-afternoon thoughts. We’ll see!

Good points. IMO there will be a major storm in the Atlantic. Whether our area is affected is highly questionable and most likely will depend on wave spacing and the western ridge heights and placement. If wave is poorly spaced or ridge is not robust it’ll develop late and this becomes a Canadian maritime blizzard.

These models are all over the place folks and will be for a few days.  18Z GFS would be a paralyzing blizzard up the eastern seaboard.  I don't need surface maps with something like this.  The ridge was robust and popped around Idaho and the wave spacing was excellent.  Next run shows something different no doubt, but make no mistake there is potential and these op runs will drive us nuts. It's just the nature of this hobby.

heehaw453 wrote:These models are all over the place folks and will be for a few days.  18Z GFS would be a paralyzing blizzard up the eastern seaboard.  I don't need surface maps with something like this.  The ridge was robust and popped around Idaho and the wave spacing was excellent.  Next run shows something different no doubt, but make no mistake there is potential and these op runs will drive us nuts.  It's just the nature of this hobby.

Is this still around the 30th if it were to effect us?

lglickman1 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:These models are all over the place folks and will be for a few days.  18Z GFS would be a paralyzing blizzard up the eastern seaboard.  I don't need surface maps with something like this.  The ridge was robust and popped around Idaho and the wave spacing was excellent.  Next run shows something different no doubt, but make no mistake there is potential and these op runs will drive us nuts.  It's just the nature of this hobby.

Is this still around the 30th if it were to effect us?

It's hard to say. I would expect if this was going to occur we'd see some effects on 29th, but this is not a progressive system by any stretch of the imagination so effects would last for at least 24 hrs IMO. Again BIG IF and I am going with the assumption that we get nothing, nonetheless I enjoy the evolution of such synoptic events.

Let's not lose sight of Tuesday into Wednesday NAM has been harping on this since OZ last night.
And we can have a 1 two punch next weekend Friday into Saturday and then again Monday/Tuesday.

GFS is an absolute

amugs wrote:Let's not lose sight of Tuesday into Wednesday NAM has been harping on this since OZ last night.
And we can have a 1 two punch next weekend Friday into Saturday and then again Monday/Tuesday.

I think you are right in that it should be watched. But NAM is most aggressive with bringing up the s/s energy on Tuesday night. I'm skeptical for now.

heehaw453 wrote:

amugs wrote:Let's not lose sight of Tuesday into Wednesday NAM has been harping on this since OZ last night.
And we can have a 1 two punch next weekend Friday into Saturday and then again Monday/Tuesday.

I think you are right in that it should be watched.  But NAM is most aggressive with bringing up the s/s energy on Tuesday night.  I'm skeptical for now.

Absolutely and it ha sniffed out a few before the globals jump on. We'll see especially with how our storms have trended lately in the progressive flow.
I think you are right in that it should be watched.  But NAM is most aggressive with bringing up the s/s energy on Tuesday night.  I'm skeptical for now.

The difference between an all out hit up the I95 and a near miss.  Look at the ridging on the near miss and the direct hit.  Notice the ridge in AZ how sharp it is and how much vorticity there is for the direct hit.  That's everything because it gives the storm the necessary time to evolve and by the time the trough goes neutral around GA, it's ready for business.  The 06Z is much less of a ridge and it's placed much further east.  There is not the time for consolidation and hence it's not a direct hit.  Also notice the flow is progressive in both cases until the amplification occurs so that means there is not time for messing around.  Again there is time for just about anything at this range, but if we don't see a good base for which the storm can build on this will miss to our east and of that I have little doubt.


Direct hit




Near miss

@heehaw..you showing your hand here you think this will
Miss East ?

dsix85 wrote:@heehaw..you showing your hand here you think this will
Miss East ?

I believe the deck is stacked against a direct hit for those reasons. That doesn't mean some impacts cannot be realized, but I'm more talking a direct hit... It's most heavily weighted on the progressive flow as the storm approaches that has me thinking that way.

Analog maybe Winter Storm Juno January 2015, but further east.  Not exact but there are some similarities.  

Is there anything in the next 2 weeks that seems to be a legit chance of something?

Maybe one key ingredient to the storm right above Alaska.  The better solutions show it robust and allows for the further westward development of the system.  Of course that isn't sampled well right now.  

Most interesting aspect of the 12Z GFS is the 500mb trough was not digging nearly as much. That allowed mid atlantic to get some snows and that actually maybe the way we get "something" out of this. Very low chances of any direct hit with this until I see models showing this develop much more quickly and more westward. Too progressive and will probably be a Canadian Maritimes blizzard.

heehaw453 wrote:Most interesting aspect of the 12Z GFS is the 500mb trough was not digging nearly as much.  That allowed mid atlantic to get some snows and that actually maybe the way we get "something" out of this.  Very low chances of any direct hit with this until I see models showing this develop much more quickly and more westward.  Too progressive and will probably be a Canadian Maritimes blizzard.  

so disheartening..this whole winter...have the wonderful cold and can do nothing with it.. At least it is sunny out today...that was my glass half full comment..

Wow this board is dead. This should shake things up. Here’s the 12z CMC…

Last 3 runs of the GFS…

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Wow this board is dead. This should shake things up. Here’s the 12z CMC…

Seems like more model fake outs, but one can dream

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Wow this board is dead. This should shake things up. Here’s the 12z CMC…

i hate to say this but this winter has been a big Disappointment for us snow lovers I will see it to believe it

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Wow this board is dead. This should shake things up. Here’s the 12z CMC…

Interesting CMC run today. Compare it to the 10:1 ratio snow map the GFS put out for the same day three days ago. Even though the 12Z GFS misses today. All models have something major in the ATlantic next weekend. It probably misses us but worth monitoring for sure.

I have been unimpressed with the performance of the Canadian models both meso and global for sometime. The global seems to latch on to an idea a few days after the GFS/Euro already dismiss it. Is this threat dead, certainly not, but I believe very unlikely we get a direct hit.